GDT: 2023-24 season game 49 LA Kings vs Edmonton Oilers @7:00pm 2/10/24

AbsentMojo

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There would be no reason to wait if they were out of the playoffs but they aren’t. He was always going to focus on intensity first, it’s what I expected anyway. It was missing and is one of the easiest things to fix. Based on player comments it sounds like he articulated things in a different way with the focus on fun.

I’ve been saying all year that Clarke should play but I wouldn’t expect him to start with multiple changes from game one. Things will evolve and Clarke will get his shot… I hope. I agree he’s the futter and want to see him in a key role soon.
I think the team is missing a hunger and killer instinct (2 goal leads blow, horrible tailspin) and I see what kind of player Clarke is.. he's a winner and has moxie like Durzi did. I think the condensed schedule exposed Kopi and DD in January.. 10 games in 17 days coming up. Maybe RV will add a spark but my feeling is roster needs a youth and skill injection.
 

Statto

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I think the team is missing a hunger and killer instinct (2 goal leads blow, horrible tailspin) and I see what kind of player Clarke is.. he's a winner and has moxie like Durzi did. I think the condensed schedule exposed Kopi and DD in January.. 10 games in 17 days coming up. Maybe RV will add a spark but my feeling is roster needs a youth and skill injection.
Hey don’t get me wrong, I completely agree and am sold on what Clarke brings. It’s why he needed more reps earlier in the season so that needing him presented lower risk than it does now. If he plays now part of that risk is adjusting to the NHL game and its speed and figuring out how to get the best from him. Now with so little NHL game time it represents a much bigger gamble.
 
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lumbergh

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I think the team is missing a hunger and killer instinct (2 goal leads blow, horrible tailspin) and I see what kind of player Clarke is.. he's a winner and has moxie like Durzi did. I think the condensed schedule exposed Kopi and DD in January.. 10 games in 17 days coming up. Maybe RV will add a spark but my feeling is roster needs a youth and skill injection.
The Kings really need to get away from sitting back and playing prevent defense (1-3-1) when they have a 2 goal lead. This tendency leads to waves of attack by the opposing team and lets them back in the game. Instead of playing to not let the other team score the next goal, they should be playing to score the next goal.

2 goal leads are not safe in this league, for or against the Kings. When they score 4 or more they are 20-0-1. Go out there and try to win the game, not try not to lose the game.
 

Raccoon Jesus

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Hey don’t get me wrong, I completely agree and am sold on what Clarke brings. It’s why he needed more reps earlier in the season so that needing him presented lower risk than it does now. If he plays now part of that risk is adjusting to the NHL game and its speed and figuring out how to get the best from him. Now with so little NHL game time it represents a much bigger gamble.

Which is the unfortunate part of the yearly repetitive cycle


can't play the kids, its early in the season and they're not ready, have to set the tone

can't play the kids, we're getting buried right now, need the vets to steady the ship before we let them loose

cant play the kids, too many injuries, they'll be exposed higher in the lineup

can't play the kids, these games are meaningful now, we need every point

can't play the kids, literally every point counts, these are essentially playoff games

can't play the kids, it's the playoffs and they've barely got any games, so how can we trust them? They're not ready.
 

AbsentMojo

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Which is the unfortunate part of the yearly repetitive cycle


can't play the kids, its early in the season and they're not ready, have to set the tone

can't play the kids, we're getting buried right now, need the vets to steady the ship before we let them loose

cant play the kids, too many injuries, they'll be exposed higher in the lineup

can't play the kids, these games are meaningful now, we need every point

can't play the kids, literally every point counts, these are essentially playoff games

can't play the kids, it's the playoffs and they've barely got any games, so how can we trust them? They're not ready.
Ding ding ding. 100 out of 100 for the exact list of prefigured synapses that have permeated the Blake/Koala regime.
 

AbsentMojo

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The Kings really need to get away from sitting back and playing prevent defense (1-3-1) when they have a 2 goal lead. This tendency leads to waves of attack by the opposing team and lets them back in the game. Instead of playing to not let the other team score the next goal, they should be playing to score the next goal.

2 goal leads are not safe in this league, for or against the Kings. When they score 4 or more they are 20-0-1. Go out there and try to win the game, not try not to lose the game.
But dont leave out they are like 2-8 ahead in 2 goal games - that cant be all on the system - the players lack the determination it seems. 100% agree the 1-3-1 has to go and def is a part of the problem.
 

Schmooley

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But dont leave out they are like 2-8 ahead in 2 goal games - that cant be all on the system - the players lack the determination it seems. 100% agree the 1-3-1 has to go and def is a part of the problem.
Yea I hope the Kings 1-3-1 era is over. It stopped being effective.
They werent using it as much this year as the defacto game plan. But it was becoming an ineffective crutch that cost them some wins.
They mostly just use it on line changes.
But when they are up by 2 goals and want to keep their shifts short they just dump it in and change lines then the next line comes out into that formation. Every line that comes out is essentially sitting back on their heels. Due to game management while holding a lead the whole mindset changes.
They are most effective as a team when they are aggressive and using their speed. The 1-3-1 is the opposite of the teams construction.
 

dman3474

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Shutout the hottest team in the league and their playoff devils the past 2 years, 4-0, but they didn't play amazing.....

THESE are the takes that are becoming way too normal on this board.....Kings didn't do shit, opposing team handed them the game....and you (collectively) wonder why shit gets called out like this?



Let me ask this, what else COULD THEY HAVE DONE...to "play amazing"

Outside of the first few minutes of the period, most of the second period was heavily tilted against them. The penalty parade that happened didn't help, with them trying to figure out how to make line changes like my nephews 8U team*. Glad they got the two goals early, but they were just trying to survive out there for most of that period. The penalty kill was amazing. They played better in the third but here was no time in this game where they had that swagger from their win streak that you knew they were going to be able to close it out. I fully think they can get back to that, but it wasn't there this last game.

*Which is really funny to watch, if anyone ever has a chance to go watch a little kid's game it's like the intermission games but way funnier, and then you have the one kid that is just lost and stares at the open door with the coaches having to pick him up and put him on the bench or back onto the ice.

And about that hottest team in the league, I think they only played 4 playoff teams in their whole streak. It was impressive though, any team that can run that long without a loss in the pros is doing things right and had a lot of momentum to steamroll some of those teams. Hell of a bounce back after the coaching change. But they also had a back-to-back game and three games in four nights I believe, so its not hard to thing they had some fatigue going for that game. Great for the kings though, any little bit of help they could get to pull out a win was needed. Like I said it was a big win for them.
 
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KINGS17

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Nice start for Hiller, and Rittich played very well. I don't think the Kings win that game without Rittich having a stellar outing.

Still have a lot of work to do.
 
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Axl Rhoadz

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Nice start for Hiller, and Rittich played very well. I don't think the Kings win that game without Rittich having a stellar outing.

Still have a lot of work to do.
Most teams don’t beat the Oilers without their goaltender having a stellar outing. That’s why they’ve won like 18 of the last 19.
 

lumbergh

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Outside of the first few minutes of the period, most of the second period was heavily tilted against them. The penalty parade that happened didn't help, with them trying to figure out how to make line changes like my nephews 8U team*. Glad they got the two goals early, but they were just trying to survive out there for most of that period. The penalty kill was amazing. They played better in the third but here was no time in this game where they had that swagger from their win streak that you knew they were going to be able to close it out. I fully think they can get back to that, but it wasn't there this last game.

*Which is really funny to watch, if anyone ever has a chance to go watch a little kid's game it's like the intermission games but way funnier, and then you have the one kid that is just lost and stares at the open door with the coaches having to pick him up and put him on the bench or back onto the ice.

And about that hottest team in the league, I think they only played 4 playoff teams in their whole streak. It was impressive though, any team that can run that long without a loss in the pros is doing things right and had a lot of momentum to steamroll some of those teams. Hell of a bounce back after the coaching change. But they also had a back-to-back game and three games in four nights I believe, so its not hard to thing they had some fatigue going for that game. Great for the kings though, any little bit of help they could get to pull out a win was needed. Like I said it was a big win for them.
I'm gonna let you in on a little secret. That whole "tilting the ice" thing doesn't much matter in terms of who wins the game. Corsi For %, Shots For %, even Expected Goals For %, all those stats that advanced stat nerds rely on to see who is "tilting the ice"? Very little correlation if any to who actually scores more goals than the other.

Let's just take Kings 49 games. If tilting the ice was important in actually winning, then the more you tilt the ice, the more you would tend to outscore the opponent, right? WRONG. I crunched the numbers for you, and plotted the Goals For % against all those advanced stat numbers (Via Natural Stat Trick). If they actually tell you about who wins the games, then you should only see dots on the upper right hand quadrant and the lower left hand quadrant. All the dots in the other two quadrants are games where the score went against the tilt of the ice.

1707793811413.png


Notice how scattered the dots are all over all four quadrants? I drew in a best-fit line and show you the R-squared, which is a number between 0 and 1 that tells you how close the dots are to the line. Corsi For, Shots for, expected goals for? Kings games frequently end up in the wrong two quadrants. Those stats are not correlated with the actual results. This is where I think Blake is sorely mistaken on constructing the team. I've heard him mention expected goals multiple times in press conferences, and he's just barking up the wrong tree.

By every one of those measures, the Kings should have lost the second period against the Oilers. But they came out with a 2-0 lead. All that tilting the ice did nothing to help the Oilers actually win. Shoulda coulda woulda.

The one stat that tells you, almost without fail, who wins or loses, is PDO. Works for just about every game.
 

AbsentMojo

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I'm gonna let you in on a little secret. That whole "tilting the ice" thing doesn't much matter in terms of who wins the game. Corsi For %, Shots For %, even Expected Goals For %, all those stats that advanced stat nerds rely on to see who is "tilting the ice"? Very little correlation if any to who actually scores more goals than the other.

Let's just take Kings 49 games. If tilting the ice was important in actually winning, then the more you tilt the ice, the more you would tend to outscore the opponent, right? WRONG. I crunched the numbers for you, and plotted the Goals For % against all those advanced stat numbers (Via Natural Stat Trick). If they actually tell you about who wins the games, then you should only see dots on the upper right hand quadrant and the lower left hand quadrant. All the dots in the other two quadrants are games where the score went against the tilt of the ice.

View attachment 818663

Notice how scattered the dots are all over all four quadrants? I drew in a best-fit line and show you the R-squared, which is a number between 0 and 1 that tells you how close the dots are to the line. Corsi For, Shots for, expected goals for? Kings games frequently end up in the wrong two quadrants. Those stats are not correlated with the actual results. This is where I think Blake is sorely mistaken on constructing the team. I've heard him mention expected goals multiple times in press conferences, and he's just barking up the wrong tree.

By every one of those measures, the Kings should have lost the second period against the Oilers. But they came out with a 2-0 lead. All that tilting the ice did nothing to help the Oilers actually win. Shoulda coulda woulda.

The one stat that tells you, almost without fail, who wins or loses, is PDO. Works for just about every game.
Statto, did you hack this acount?
 
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All The Kings Men

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my understanding is that "analytics" in hockey aren't used to explain the past but to predict the future and every "analytics" expert that I've ever talked to conceded that the margins being negotiated are slim
 
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Chazz Reinhold

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I'm gonna let you in on a little secret. That whole "tilting the ice" thing doesn't much matter in terms of who wins the game. Corsi For %, Shots For %, even Expected Goals For %, all those stats that advanced stat nerds rely on to see who is "tilting the ice"? Very little correlation if any to who actually scores more goals than the other.

Let's just take Kings 49 games. If tilting the ice was important in actually winning, then the more you tilt the ice, the more you would tend to outscore the opponent, right? WRONG. I crunched the numbers for you, and plotted the Goals For % against all those advanced stat numbers (Via Natural Stat Trick). If they actually tell you about who wins the games, then you should only see dots on the upper right hand quadrant and the lower left hand quadrant. All the dots in the other two quadrants are games where the score went against the tilt of the ice.

View attachment 818663

Notice how scattered the dots are all over all four quadrants? I drew in a best-fit line and show you the R-squared, which is a number between 0 and 1 that tells you how close the dots are to the line. Corsi For, Shots for, expected goals for? Kings games frequently end up in the wrong two quadrants. Those stats are not correlated with the actual results. This is where I think Blake is sorely mistaken on constructing the team. I've heard him mention expected goals multiple times in press conferences, and he's just barking up the wrong tree.

By every one of those measures, the Kings should have lost the second period against the Oilers. But they came out with a 2-0 lead. All that tilting the ice did nothing to help the Oilers actually win. Shoulda coulda woulda.

The one stat that tells you, almost without fail, who wins or loses, is PDO. Works for just about every game.
This is like looking at the weather report from yesterday when it snowed and saying that you shouldn't look to weather forecasts for later in the week because we know what's going to happen since it snowed yesterday. PDO correlates to what happened in any one game because it's literally descriptive of what happened on the ice. It has little to no value when it comes what to reasonably expect going forward. The other ones you list might not be descriptive of the result in any one game but the longer that teams pile together advantages in each of those categories you list, the more likely they are to be at the top of the league.
 

Statto

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Statto would argue the exact opposite of what I just argued. That's how you know.
I got nothing :laugh:

Actually you made some good points. Expected goals is a good stat but all it essentially tells you (in my experience) is that the system is successfully generating shots where you do/don‘t want them to come from. However like all stats there is so much nuance around that.

I worked with one coach in the UK Superleague (ISL) that loved x/g and in the first year it correlated brilliantly with successful results… as did a whole bunch of other numbers. Over the following two seasons we struggled badly, but the x/g whilst not as good still largely was in our favour. Unfortunately it wasn’t working, the supporting numbers not longer worked and other teams had figured out the trap system being used. He couldn’t let go of x/g though so he never even tweaked the way we played as he was convinced that the x/g meant it would turn around. It got to the point I considered falsifying the stats so he’d see it wasn’t working (I didn’t for the record).

He never finished his 3rd season with us, which was a shame because he was a great guy and the coach I enjoyed working with most. I got to make changes to the pp deployment and at times called who should take key draws, I learned a huge amount. However even
I thought that he definitely had to go, which would’ve been fine had his replacement not been worse. I loved the stats side of thing but they can so easily be misused… although there was much more that contributed to the failure.
 

Axl Rhoadz

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Nice start for Hiller, and Rittich played very well. I don't think the Kings win that game without Rittich having a stellar outing.

Still have a lot of work to do.
The only other game that EDM has lost in like the last 20 games:

Image 2-13-24 at 6.03 AM.jpg
 

lumbergh

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This is like looking at the weather report from yesterday when it snowed and saying that you shouldn't look to weather forecasts for later in the week because we know what's going to happen since it snowed yesterday. PDO correlates to what happened in any one game because it's literally descriptive of what happened on the ice. It has little to no value when it comes what to reasonably expect going forward. The other ones you list might not be descriptive of the result in any one game but the longer that teams pile together advantages in each of those categories you list, the more likely they are to be at the top of the league.
Again, good teams win more games, and good teams also have high PDO. PDO is highly correlated with goals for and of point percentage for teams. About two months ago everyone was weirding out about how unsustainable Vancouver's start was. I posted at the time that they're a good team winning with a high PDO against weak competition. Here we are, Vancouver is still tops in PDO, and leading the league in point percentage.

Two months ago I also posted that the Kings have a middling PDO and that they compensate by trying to outshoot opponents consistently. What I just told you is that it doesn't do much to outshoot your opponents by a couple of shots per game. The Kings have had below average shooting percentages for a decade straight. It came back to bite them in the 16 games after Christmas.

Again, points percentage correlates with PDO (strong correlation) much more than with Corsi For% or Shots For %. You can look it up yourself. Tilt the ice all you want, shoot all you want, but the team that has the higher shooting percentage and save percentage will almost always wins. Good thing for the Kings have had a pretty good save percentage (90.81%, 7th) this season, but their shooting percentage is 24th at 9.43%. If you want to know why the Kings lose, it's because they can't exploit weaknesses in opposing defenses. Like constipation on ice watching this team some nights.

PDO is also super useful in finding good underrated players. If you can add players that have a high relative PDO, you'll assemble a really strong team that plays well on both ends of the ice. Your Carson Soucys, Jared Spurgeons, Pavel Buchneviches, Nikolaj Ehlers, and the like.
 

Chazz Reinhold

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Again, good teams win more games, and good teams also have high PDO. PDO is highly correlated with goals for and of point percentage for teams. About two months ago everyone was weirding out about how unsustainable Vancouver's start was. I posted at the time that they're a good team winning with a high PDO against weak competition. Here we are, Vancouver is still tops in PDO, and leading the league in point percentage.

Two months ago I also posted that the Kings have a middling PDO and that they compensate by trying to outshoot opponents consistently. What I just told you is that it doesn't do much to outshoot your opponents by a couple of shots per game. The Kings have had below average shooting percentages for a decade straight. It came back to bite them in the 16 games after Christmas.

Again, points percentage correlates with PDO (strong correlation) much more than with Corsi For% or Shots For %. You can look it up yourself. Tilt the ice all you want, shoot all you want, but the team that has the higher shooting percentage and save percentage will almost always wins. Good thing for the Kings have had a pretty good save percentage (90.81%, 7th) this season, but their shooting percentage is 24th at 9.43%. If you want to know why the Kings lose, it's because they can't exploit weaknesses in opposing defenses. Like constipation on ice watching this team some nights.

PDO is also super useful in finding good underrated players. If you can add players that have a high relative PDO, you'll assemble a really strong team that plays well on both ends of the ice. Your Carson Soucys, Jared Spurgeons, Pavel Buchneviches, Nikolaj Ehlers, and the like.
PDO is descriptive of what has happened. It has absolutely no means of differentiating shot quality for or against. It has minimal—if any—value in telling you how a team might perform going forward based on a team’s ability to control game flow over a larger period.

I would be more interested in seeing you chart the correlation of a team’s PDO its first 41 games of a season versus a team’s points percentage over the remaining 41 games of a season to see how predictive (or not) it is of how a team will perform going forward.
 

Jersey Fan 12

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Nice start for Hiller, and Rittich played very well. I don't think the Kings win that game without Rittich having a stellar outing.

Just saw Rittich's numbers and W/L mark. Is this a Hamburglar/Alex Lyon thing going or are there other factors?
 

Rick Knickleback

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Analytics work best for football and especially baseball because those sports consist of a series of discrete outcomes followed by resets, which can be measured more objectively. Sports like soccer and hockey, which have more "flow" to them, are less adaptable.
 

Chazz Reinhold

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Analytics work best for football and especially baseball because those sports consist of a series of discrete outcomes followed by resets, which can be measured more objectively. Sports like soccer and hockey, which have more "flow" to them, are less adaptable.
There is plenty that can be measured discretely in hockey. For example, we have enough information now on all goals scored over at least a couple of decades to know how often a shot from any location goes in the net. In many ways it’s similar to launch angle and exit velocity in baseball. If I hit a ball with a 100 mph exit velocity at a launch angle of 15 degrees, we can measure the probability of what the outcome will be with that ball. That doesn’t mean it will result in a particular outcome that single time, but if I keep hitting balls a 100 mph with a launch angle of 15 degrees, I’ll very likely have a baseline level of success with those outcomes.

There’s a reason why the teams that generate higher quality chances for and limit higher quality chances against (i.e., xG%) generally end up in the top half of the league, while teams that are the inverse end up in the bottom half of the league. It’s not perfectly predictive but nothing is. There’s too much random stuff that can happen when you have ten guys flying around a confined area with frozen vulcanized rubber sailing around, through, and off one or more of those guys out there.
 
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