GDT: 2023-24 season game 49 LA Kings vs Edmonton Oilers @7:00pm 2/10/24

[bmr]

PDO sounds like something I’d get called into a meeting with HR about.

PDO sounds like the older, dirtier cousin of PDA.

 

[Rick Knickleback]

There is plenty that can be measured discretely in hockey. For example, we have enough information now on all goals scored over at least a couple of decades to know how often a shot from any location goes in the net. In many ways it’s similar to launch angle and exit velocity in baseball. If I hit a ball with a 100 mph exit velocity at a launch angle of 15 degrees, we can measure the probability of what the outcome will be with that ball. That doesn’t mean it will result in a particular outcome that single time, but if I keep hitting balls a 100 mph with a launch angle of 15 degrees, I’ll very likely have a baseline level of success with those outcomes.

There’s a reason why the teams that generate higher quality chances for and limit higher quality chances against (i.e., xG%) generally end up in the top half of the league, while teams that are the inverse end up in the bottom half of the league. It’s not perfectly predictive but nothing is. There’s too much random stuff that can happen when you have ten guys flying around a confined area with frozen vulcanized rubber sailing around, through, and off one or more of those guys out there.

xG% is a great stat--it certainly helps explain why some of us knew Byfield was good (and a little unlucky) before the more traditional stats said so. I think that, for C and D especially, comparing offensive zone starts v d-zone starts is also useful in looking at who does the dirty work in the trenches v who gets the cushier assignments. I just think it's a less controlled game than, say, baseball, so there's a little less we can ascertain from analytics in advance of the game.

 

[Chazz Reinhold]

xG% is a great stat--it certainly helps explain why some of us knew Byfield was good (and a little unlucky) before the more traditional stats said so. I think that, for C and D especially, comparing offensive zone starts v d-zone starts is also useful in looking at who does the dirty work in the trenches v who gets the cushier assignments. I just think it's a less controlled game than, say, baseball, so there's a little less we can ascertain from analytics in advance of the game.

It’s definitely less controlled than baseball. There will always be some level of randomness, ineffable intangibles, and a bit of luck involved with hockey. There’s just a lot of information out there that can be helpful to contextualize what’s going on with an incredibly fast sport.