Speculation: 2023-24 Roster Thread

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Ducks officialy last place in the division. Now we gotta wait to see if our lineup additions help

Last in the division, but we've still got two games in hand.

George Constanza, wink and point.gif
 
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the team should be embarrassed and ashamed to let the sharks get ahead of them. that winning streak went completely to waste.
Embarrassed is an understatement.. Cronin must be pissed off. I will say they have been losing alot of 1 goal games latley.. That tells me one thing.. They are not getting enough scoring and timely saves.. Thats the big difference..
 
Embarrassed is an understatement.. Cronin must be pissed off. I will say they have been losing alot of 1 goal games latley.. That tells me one thing.. They are not getting enough scoring and timely saves.. Thats the big difference..

We don't have to guess, we just have to put in the extremities to work.

The current GF and GA average in the league today is 3.04 goals/game.
(Per Hockey-Reference as of Dec 12th: 85 goals in 28 games.)

Ducks2023-241-goalgames
Game Set1-goal GamesWLOT/SOPtsGFGF/gameGAGA/game
1 to 14
6​
4​
2​
0​
8​
18​
3.00​
16​
2.67​
15 to 27
7​
2​
5​
0​
4​
17​
2.43​
20​
2.86​

In these 1-goal games, the defense and goalies are doing great. The problem lays within our lack of scoring.

  • 1-goal games: PP goals
    • 1 to 14: 4 PP goals
    • 14 to 27: 5 PP goals
  • 1-goal games: PK goals against
    • 1 to 14: 7 PK goals against
    • 14 to 27: 2 PP goals against

Interesting, our ES defense was better in the first game set than in our last game set. Our defense remains better than the average despite the shifting of GA. Our ES goal scoring is what is bringing the team down in the second game set.

We can stop blaming our goalies for timely saves when they're already doing better than their job in these 1-goal game results. We lost 1-0 against the Blackhawks, you can't really blame our goalie for that loss.
 
2022-23 vs 2023-24: First 27 games

DucksOverview
SeasonGame setGamesWLOTLPtsPts PctGFGAGD
2022-231 to 27
27​
7​
17​
3​
17​
31.5%​
69​
114​
-45​
2023-241 to 27
27​
10​
17​
0​
20​
37.0%​
71​
92​
-21​

It's weird seeing us only 3 point better than last year's team, where last year's team didn't earn a regulation win until game 20 against the NY Rangers.


DucksSpecial Teams
SeasonGame SetGamesPPGPPOPP Eff.PK GATSHPK Eff
2022-231 to 27
27​
12​
80​
15.0%​
.
32​
95​
66.3%​
2023-241 to 27
27​
19​
86​
22.1%​
.
23​
119​
80.7%​

Currently, the 2023-24 Ducks PP and PK units are ranked 14th overall in the league. This year's team is vastly better than last year's efficiency production! Cronin said he leaves the PP stuff all to Newell Brown. Great job, Brown! I'm still baffled at our high production, but Brown has recovered very well after starting off our first seven games at 1 for 24 on the PP, or 4.2% PP eff.

The PK unit has made a massive jump in efficiency, where it's boasting three new defensive PK'ers this year in RD Gudas, RD Lyubushkin, and rookie LD LaCombe. There is a caveat, though, this year's team is the highest penalized team in the league. Using last year's TSH with this year's PK Eff, then we would have given up 18.36 PK GA. A reduction of 4 or 5 goals could have helped us earn more points/wins in the 1-goal game department.

DucksNon-ST production
SeasonGame SetES GFES GAES GD
2022-231 to 27
57​
82​
-25​
2023-241 to 27
52​
69​
-17​

This is the scary part. Last year's team was a better scoring team than this year's team in non-Special Teams productions. Part of the reason for the loss of offense is the mass hit of injuries to our top-9 forward crew. 3C Lundy and 3LW Killorn were lost before the season started. Part-time 1C Zegras was lost after game 12. Recently, on Dec 2nd, the team lost McTavish.

Cronin still needs to improve that ES goal scoring yesterday.

=========

Anaheim's scoring has been abysmal in their last 12 games!

  • First 15 games
    • GF = 47 goals
    • GF/game = 3.13 GF/game
  • First 12 games
    • GF = 24 goals
    • GF/game = 2.00 GF/game

Maybe Terry needs to call up Eakins to make him start scoring again?

  • Terry: first 27 games
    • 2022-23: 26 points in 27 games, 0.96 ppg rate
    • 2023-24: 15 points in 27 games, 0.55 ppg rate
 
I really hope Mac and Z are getting back soon. I’m not even as concerned with the D. Top 6 has gone ice cold. Special teams kept them afloat and in games for so long, but now 1 win in 14 games, something has to give.

Verbeek thinks they are playing well? Not from what I saw last night. Even my cousin said to me, what’s up with the Ducks they look off.
 
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I really hope Mac and Z are getting back soon. I’m not even as concerned with the D. Top 6 has gone ice cold. Special teams kept them afloat and in games for so long, but now 1 win in 14 games, something has to give.

Verbeek thinks they are playing well? Not from what I saw last night. Even my cousin said to me, what’s up with the Ducks they look off.

Maybe Verbeek thinks they're playing well with what they have? We have a lot of forwards playing up a line or two due to several injuries.

Of course, that's a complete 180-degree of thinking when it comes to Eakins and the lack of defense provided to him by Verbeek himself. hahahah
 
Maybe Verbeek thinks they're playing well with what they have? We have a lot of forwards playing up a line or two due to several injuries.

Of course, that's a complete 180-degree of thinking when it comes to Eakins and the lack of defense provided to him by Verbeek himself. hahahah

Yeah, I was talking to a few Rangers fans last night, they were very impressed with Leo, and I was saying the Ducks have no depth and are missing three Top 9 guys (two of them who are Top line players), and a Top 4D.

I had no expectations for playoffs, wanted around .500 hockey and we were right there before all the injuries happened.
 
Just came across this…



Vaak-Gudas has been solid and it passes the eye test. When Drysdale gets back have decisions to make.

I would personally be fine with sending LaCombe to SD and keeping Hagg around as our #7.

EDIT: One issue with that idea is SD only really has 1 RHD (Helleson), so that means 2 lefties have to play their off side. I'm guessing they would just put LaCombe there.
 
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Just came across this…



Vaak-Gudas has been solid and it passes the eye test. When Drysdale gets back have decisions to make.


Context missing here is they're not our top line.

  • ATOI: Defense
    • Fowler 24:31
    • LaCombe: 19:49
    • Mintyukov: 18:59
    • Gudas: 18:28
    • Luneau: 17:52
    • Lyubushkin: 17:20
    • Vaak: 15:58

LaCombe on the top line keeps Lyubushkin and Gudas in the bottom-lines, aka sheltered, aka not playing above their station. Remember, Vaak got replaced by LaCombe on the top line mid-game.

  • Current pairing:
    • Fowler-LaCombe
    • Minty-Lyubush
    • Vaak-Gudas

Whenever LaCombe is paired with Gudas, his stat card production is usually good to great. (Although, I still think the stat card stats production are still flawed.)
 
The Fowler - LaCombe pair is not working and it’s not because of the individual players it’s the combo.

Fowler-Lacombe is not optimum, but it's helping the other pairings succeed. Vaaks-Gudas 3rd pairing is proof of this.

We know putting Vaak on the top line is going to be worse. Gudas, where his skating isn't great, would probably be exposed playing on the top line. We could put Lyubushkin on the top line and then have a rookie pairing of Minty-LaCombe. Minty-LaCombe have been paired before, but in specific situations such as late in games where were need offense or after a PP.
 
Fowler-Lacombe is not optimum, but it's helping the other pairings succeed. Vaaks-Gudas 3rd pairing is proof of this.

We know putting Vaak on the top line is going to be worse. Gudas, where his skating isn't great, would probably be exposed playing on the top line. We could put Lyubushkin on the top line and then have a rookie pairing of Minty-LaCombe. Minty-LaCombe have been paired before, but in specific situations such as late in games where were need offense or after a PP.
What we know, if you believe the data, is that we have one excellent pair, one average one, and one train wreck. We don’t know what would happen if the pairs were mixed up or if the match ups were changed. I don’t think you can assume the Vaaks would be worse with Fowler-worse than 190 out of 194? I understand wanting to shelter Mintyukov or not pairing two rookies, but when Drysdale returns, things needs to be shaken up.
 
What we know, if you believe the data, is that we have one excellent pair, one average one, and one train wreck. We don’t know what would happen if the pairs were mixed up or if the match ups were changed. I don’t think you can assume the Vaaks would be worse with Fowler-worse than 190 out of 194? I understand wanting to shelter Mintyukov or not pairing two rookies, but when Drysdale returns, things needs to be shaken up.

I don't have to assume Fowler-Vaaks would be worse. The team already tried it out and already decided to switch to rookie LaCombe, if you have been watching the games. LaCombe wins puck battles, gets the puck out of our zone, and often changes. Fowler stays out longer and that's Fowler improves his +/- rating. Thus, the CF/FF and xGF truly doesn't favor LaCombe. Listening to the post game wrap on Ducks Stream, Alexis made a point on one of Rico's goals that LaCombe winning the puck in the Dzone and getting it out lead to Rico's goal, but LaCombe wasn't on the ice when Rico scored. Yet, Alexis said if it wasn't for LaCombe, then Rico doesn't get that opportunity.

We win with LaCombe on the top pairing and the only other d-man on the top pairing to win a game with Fowler is Drysdale. Apparently, the data for better Ducks d-pairings don't move the needle for wins enough.

When Drysdale returns, then he goes back to the top line and Lacombe goes back to pairing with Gudas. It's not really a shakeup, but going back to how the team started.

Our big problem isn't on defense, but our forwards lack of scoring at ES (5v5), lack of being a puck hound on dump and chase, lack of rotation when a D pinches, and lack of backchecking. Tonight's win had 1 PP goal, 2 4v4 goals, 1 Shortie, and 1 ES (5v5) goal. I've been identifying our lack of ES (5v5) goal scoring for quite some time now as our biggest culprit for losing.
 
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