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2023-24 Roster Thread #7: A shave and a haircut, two bits

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How many total points will the 2023-24 Flyers compile at the end of the season?

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eramosat said:
Is this a continuation of, I think, a similar theme for Sanheim these last few years? Where ok advanced stats were side armed by poor actual goals against? Is it bad luck, or bad play?
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Sanheim only gave up 2.88 ES GA/60 the past three seasons in 4000+ minutes. Not poor at all.

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

www.naturalstattrick.com
 
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eramosat said:
Whenever someone points out NHL players have a poor save% and a poor shooting percentage, I am more likely to attribute their influence, give or take, to poor play. And not absolve them of it.
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Defensemen have little statistical impact with 5v5 on-ice shooting %s (offense). Not chance creating or shots. Finishing. It's how we got Robert Hagg leading the Flyers defense in on-ice shooting %s damned near every season. There's a mountain of data for this one.

As for the defensive end, I'd wager you'd say that a pair with Erik Karlsson having the 2nd best on-ice save % isn't due to his defensive prowess prowessing his goalies into being Hasek. Again, while this part is more complex and up for debate, there's no real correlation between on-ice save %s and defensive ability (tipping pucks into your own net aside). It's very prone to fluctuation. Sanheim undoubtedly had his worst professional season last year -- would even his biggest fans disagree? Fun fact: he had the best 5v5 save % of his career. It coincided with his worst xGA/60.

York-Sanheim have the worst PDO of any pairing >250 minutes. It's impossibly low at .908. If you look at last season and double the sample size, the worst was .964. Their data says that pair has been "okay" in everything else. Certainly not outlier bad or anything. Absolution isn't the discussion I'm having.
 
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Am I missing something about xG? Last year Frost had basically the same ES GF% as Cates, and was much higher than TK. But no one thinks it’s surprising that this year TK has a good xG with the team playing better, right?

 
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Curufinwe said:
Am I missing something about xG? Last year Frost had basically the same ES GF% as Cates, and was much higher than TK. But no one thinks it’s surprising that this year TK has a good xG with the team playing better, right?

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There’s a difference bt GF and xGF. And Charlie loves to use this stat by Evolving Hockey called RAPM, regularly adjusted plus/minus. It attempts to place individual responsibility of certain metrics on players. Basically, how did the individual player affect a certain metric. They run it on xG, GF, CF.

Frost didn’t grade out particularly well with RAPM, which is what Charlie hangs his hat on. But that same website has another metric, GAR and xGAR. Frost grade it out extremely well for xGAR in ES offensive impacts, and pretty well in ES defensive impacts.

He had a good season last year, and Charlie doesn’t want to admit it because he’s never liked Frost.

Magua said:
^ That’s @VladDrag ‘s cue. :laugh:
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My favorite part of that is that Charlie has used a four game sample to say Staal was playing well, and a one game sample to say Noah Cates was turning a corner… So…
 
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With the team winning I’m sure it won’t change, but it’s crazy that old man Atkinson gets more ice time and opportunity than Farabee. Cam can’t or won’t defend anymore, but his personal relationship with Torts ensures he gets PP time and shifts in OT, and immunity from benching no matter how much he coasts on defense.
 
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Curufinwe said:
With the team winning I’m sure it won’t change, but it’s crazy that old man Atkinson gets more ice time and opportunity than Farabee. Cam can’t or won’t defend anymore, but his personal relationship with Torts ensures he gets PP time and shifts in OT, and immunity from benching no matter how much he coasts on defense.
Click to expand...

#sameasiteverwas....
 
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Curufinwe said:
With the team winning I’m sure it won’t change, but it’s crazy that old man Atkinson gets more ice time and opportunity than Farabee. Cam can’t or won’t defend anymore, but his personal relationship with Torts ensures he gets PP time and shifts in OT, and immunity from benching no matter how much he coasts on defense.
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Atkinson to anywhere for whatever we can get should be a high priority for Danny at the TDL.
 
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Dunno where to post.

But kids under 18 no longer allowed to take off base layer for hockey in Canadian locker rooms. Includes body shirts.

(Or so told by buddy of mine -coach)

:laugh:
 
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