Speculation: 2023-24 Armchair GM thread

[57special]

Lather, rinse, repeat. Put it on the towels.

Honestly, based on these latest comments along with his postseason presser, it's obvious that he's waving the white flag until those dead contracts are gone. He's not even gonna try. I'm sure Kaprizov will appreciate it.

Yep, that's what I think his fabled "plan" is it, but of course, he won't say it, for all sorts of reasons. Part of me thinks i should stop watching for the next two seasons, and check back in for 25-26. I wonder how many other fans are thinking the same ?

It's a dangerous game that Guerin is playing. Once viewers change their viewing habits, it's tough to get them back. I am a testament to that. Used to watch the T Wolves, now you couldn't pay me to watch them. Twins are trending that way, also, albeit for different reasons.

 

[Digitalbooya]

Yep, that's what I think his fabled "plan" is it, but of course, he won't say it, for all sorts of reasons. Part of me thinks i should stop watching for the next two seasons, and check back in for 25-26. I wonder how many other fans are thinking the same ?

It's a dangerous game that Guerin is playing. Once viewers change their viewing habits, it's tough to get them back. I am a testament to that. Used to watch the T Wolves, now you couldn't pay me to watch them. Twins are trending that way, also, albeit for different reasons.

I’ve found that I’ll watch some pretty bad teams. Badger hockey is one example. The mantra for years has been “win and the fans will come back.”

I’ve also watched the Shanghai Dragons of the Overwatch League. Their first season they went 0-40, setting records for longest losing streak. Cheering for them to get their first win was what made me become a hardcore fan of theirs. They were mediocre in year 2, with a stage 3 championship and quick fizzle out of the playoffs. Years 3 and 4 they were absolutely dominant. Almost always won their games 3-0 (they played first to three in map wins). They made it to the final four in 2020 and won a playoff championship in 2021. They were still pretty good last season. This year, they are kind of a jumbled mess and I don’t expect them to win much. But I’ll still get up at 3-4am to watch them. Looking for improvement!

 

[57special]

I’ve found that I’ll watch some pretty bad teams. Badger hockey is one example. The mantra for years has been “win and the fans will come back.”

I’ve also watched the Shanghai Dragons of the Overwatch League. Their first season they went 0-40, setting records for longest losing streak. Cheering for them to get their first win was what made me become a hardcore fan of theirs. They were mediocre in year 2, with a stage 3 championship and quick fizzle out of the playoffs. Years 3 and 4 they were absolutely dominant. Almost always won their games 3-0 (they played first to three in map wins). They made it to the final four in 2020 and won a playoff championship in 2021. They were still pretty good last season. This year, they are kind of a jumbled mess and I don’t expect them to win much. But I’ll still get up at 3-4am to watch them. Looking for improvement!

Nerd.

 

[Minnewildsota]

Nerd.

FIFY

EDIT: I watch a few Youtube channels regarding Indie games, so I'm not really one to talk.

 

[Spurgeon]

Yep, that's what I think his fabled "plan" is it, but of course, he won't say it, for all sorts of reasons. Part of me thinks i should stop watching for the next two seasons, and check back in for 25-26. I wonder how many other fans are thinking the same ?

It's a dangerous game that Guerin is playing. Once viewers change their viewing habits, it's tough to get them back. I am a testament to that. Used to watch the T Wolves, now you couldn't pay me to watch them. Twins are trending that way, also, albeit for different reasons.

The team is going to have plenty of cap space in the 24-25 to build a competitive roster, in spite of the dead cap. As long as Guerin doesn’t make the mistake of re-signing Zucc or Foligno to outlandish deals, our window opens that season. They just need a few of their prospects to be ready to jump into the lineup by then (which they should or else we’ve got some issues with our developmental system).

Sample 24-25 Roster:

Kap - Khusnutdinov - Yurov
Johansson - Rossi - Boldy
Ohgren - Ek - X
Dewar ($1.25M) - Gaudreau - Duhaime ($1.25M)

Brodin - Faber
Middleton - Spurgeon
Merill - Addison ($1.2M)

Gus ($3.333M)
Wallstedt

That lineup has $17.55M in cap to add one roster player and extra skaters. So realistically they can add 2-3 top 6 forwards or 1 first line talent + 2 average players.

Yurov or Ohgren may not be ready. Team still has potential NHL-ready forwards in Walker, Beckman, Giroux, and Firstov.

On the defensive side, one or two of Hunt, ROR, Lambos, Peart, Johansson or Spacek will likely get NHL ice-time too.

Following year we’ve got the $13M in dead cap coming off the books on top of whatever cap increases. It would have been nice if Faber’s ELC extended into that season because I have a feeling his next contract could be a decent chunk. I just wish Guerin realized that this team needs to have a coach ready for that 24-25 and 25-26 season.

 

[Dickie Dunn]

Part of me thinks that there is no way Guerin could have looked at these last two teams on paper and predicted 100+ points. Leaves me wondering what the plan really has been and what can he possibly think the next two years will produce. It feels like 4 years of suck and he fell backasswards into two seasons of "good".

 

[keppel146]

Part of me thinks that there is no way Guerin could have looked at these last two teams on paper and predicted 100+ points. Leaves me wondering what the plan really has been and what can he possibly think the next two years will produce. It feels like 4 years of suck and he fell backasswards into two seasons of "good".

We even failed at the stealth tank. We are in purgatory.

 

[Spurgeon]

Part of me thinks that there is no way Guerin could have looked at these last two teams on paper and predicted 100+ points. Leaves me wondering what the plan really has been and what can he possibly think the next two years will produce. It feels like 4 years of suck and he fell backasswards into two seasons of "good".

Yeah, I don’t see how he could have envisioned the success that these teams had the past two seasons.

I do think this team is going to struggle this upcoming season, but I suppose there’s not going to be much of a difference in the rosters. I think the best course of action is to make minimal moves and then dump every expiring UFA at the deadline, unless this team is somehow in a battle for the division again.

 

[AKL]

Yep, that's what I think his fabled "plan" is it, but of course, he won't say it, for all sorts of reasons. Part of me thinks i should stop watching for the next two seasons, and check back in for 25-26. I wonder how many other fans are thinking the same ?

It's a dangerous game that Guerin is playing. Once viewers change their viewing habits, it's tough to get them back. I am a testament to that. Used to watch the T Wolves, now you couldn't pay me to watch them. Twins are trending that way, also, albeit for different reasons.

I think I watched 3 of the last 15 games of the regular season, and then 4 of 6 playoff games. So I'm pretty close to that point. Probably won't stop following completely, but will definitely watch much less.

Two things I was looking forward to in these years were acquiring more picks and prospects for 2025 and beyond, and we haven't done much of that outside of our normal draft picks; and giving younger players bigger roles, which we've instead chosen to fill with UFA signings and short term rentals who don't figure into the long term equation. So it's pretty disappointing to say the least.

 

[57special]

I think I watched 3 of the last 15 games of the regular season, and then 4 of 6 playoff games. So I'm pretty close to that point. Probably won't stop following completely, but will definitely watch much less.

Two things I was looking forward to in these years were acquiring more picks and prospects for 2025 and beyond, and we haven't done much of that outside of our normal draft picks; and giving younger players bigger roles, which we've instead chosen to fill with UFA signings and short term rentals who don't figure into the long term equation. So it's pretty disappointing to say the least.

Dumba was the one guy who you think could've been traded for a late 1st, though Russo said there was no demand for him. Hard to say how much he is parroting BG's party line.
I get that they would rather keep him than accumulate another 2nd going into the playoffs, but after yet another 1st round fail it's hard to justify.

Zuccarello will be this year's Dumba. Either he will suck/ be injured, in which case he will be bard to give away, or he will be a PPG guy indispensable guy(in which case they won't trade him because he is too valuable to trade for next year's failure), or he will be somewhere in between.
I would love for Guerin to trade him for a 1st while he is a PPG pace, but I doubt he will unless Rossi, and maybe one of Beckman/Walker show top 9 talent and production next year.

I am not young, and am running out of patience. i will put up with losing if there is hope in the future, but right now i don't see any bright young prospects that project to be stars, and drive our team in the future to a Cup run. Kap is great, but was luck more than anything.

 

[Spurgeon]

I’m surprised how down you guys are on the state of the team tbh. I thought for sure this team was going to be garbage the past two years, but they’ve been able to put together some decent seasons. First season was definitely more enjoyable to watch than last season though.

I absolutely hate this team’s complete inability to win playoff games & think Evason should be gone. I also think Guerin has missed out on some value with holding onto players too long or simply mismanaging them. Other than that though:

1. We’ve got the best prospect pool in the league

2. We’ve got all of our 1st and 2nd round picks for the next 3 drafts (as well as an additional 2nd).

3. We’ll have tons of cap space after this upcoming season.

 

[Bazeek]

I’m surprised how down you guys are on the state of the team tbh. I thought for sure this team was going to be garbage the past two years, but they’ve been able to put together some decent seasons. First season was definitely more enjoyable to watch than last season though.

I absolutely hate this team’s complete inability to win playoff games & think Evason should be gone. I also think Guerin has missed out on some value with holding onto players too long or simply mismanaging them. Other than that though:

1. We’ve got the best prospect pool in the league

2. We’ve got all of our 1st and 2nd round picks for the next 3 drafts (as well as an additional 2nd).

3. We’ll have tons of cap space after this upcoming season.

I don't think the team's in terrible shape, but it's hard to stay engaged when its predictability is borderline supernatural. It's become a team that you can either enjoy for the game-to-game grind of the regular season or not at all. I think having Kaprizov makes that easier for some fans, but personally it's just made it easier to follow the team by watching highlights the next morning.

It is what it is, but it's hard to find two original thoughts about this team to rub together anymore.

 

[AKL]

I’m surprised how down you guys are on the state of the team tbh. I thought for sure this team was going to be garbage the past two years, but they’ve been able to put together some decent seasons. First season was definitely more enjoyable to watch than last season though.

I absolutely hate this team’s complete inability to win playoff games & think Evason should be gone. I also think Guerin has missed out on some value with holding onto players too long or simply mismanaging them. Other than that though:

1. We’ve got the best prospect pool in the league

2. We’ve got all of our 1st and 2nd round picks for the next 3 drafts (as well as an additional 2nd).

3. We’ll have tons of cap space after this upcoming season.

Best prospect pool in the league might as well be a participation trophy at this point. Makes you feel good but doesn't actually mean anything until those prospects start to pan out. We had one of the best pools in the league about a decade ago too and that got us exactly nowhere. Plus, if you expand it to the entire U24 core, we free fall down that list.

All our picks for the next three drafts is the same thing. It's great in theory, but it doesn't mean anything until those guys become NHLers.

And all that is to say, even with our top prospect pool and all our picks, given the potential of the guys we have and the spots we're likely drafting in, none of those prospects or picks project to be true top of the lineup stars. Our pool is propped up by depth, not star potential. We're picking in the 20s these last few years and it looks like our semi-recent top 10 pick isn't gonna be anything special.

I've seen how this story plays out before. And I have zero faith in Guerin.

 

[57special]

Our prospect pool is good if you think that Rossi is going to be a top 6 NHL C. I am not sure that I do, any more. It also depends on at least one, if not two of Ohgren, Yurov, and M Marat becoming top 6 players, and at least two of our dmen being top 4 guys, if not 3. Also Wallstedt must turn out.

I would rather have missed the playoffs this year and had a swing at some of the excellent forward prospects this year than lose in a non competitive way against Dallas. It's embarrassing that teams like Seattle were far better than us. I have lost patience with a lot of Wild's spiel. It's not normal to be as mediocre as we are, year after year.

 

[NHL1674]

I can accept that we are screwed with the cap. I can accept that our roster will suffer for it. I can even accept that we still aren't close to finding a top centerman. I can accept missing the postseason next year due to some of those factors out of our control.

What I can't accept is a club losing, because they keep making the same mistakes year after year. This post season was a carbon copy of last year's playoffs. A freaking carbon copy!!! And based on BG's comments regarding the coaching staff, it looks like we haven't learned a DAMN thing. We're gonna keep making the same fooking mistakes AGAIN, because he seems content with the same damn coaches. We may be screwed with the roster, but you can still try to grow by making changes in other areas.....especially when the coaches are responsible for a lot of the same mistakes.

But nope....if we are lucky enough to make the playoffs next year, it'll be the same boneheaded errors with special teams and the stubbornness to avoid making in-game adjustments.

 

[AKL]

We may be screwed with the roster, but you can still try to grow by making changes in other areas.....especially when the coaches are responsible for a lot of the same mistakes.

But nope....if we are lucky enough to make the playoffs next year, it'll be the same boneheaded errors with special teams and the stubbornness to avoid making in-game adjustments.

They're mailing it in but keeping the coaches around to use as scapegoats as the right time. They don't want to fire the current staff and have nothing materially change the next couple years, so they're kicking that can down the line. Next year is gonna be another year like this year. Whatever happens happens and no one's really gonna try that hard to change the outcome one way or the other. 2024-25 is when they may make coaching adjustments, but even then I wouldn't expect them until mid-year.

It's for sure frustrating, but that's The Plan®.

 

[57special]

They're mailing it in but keeping the coaches around to use as scapegoats as the right time. They don't want to fire the current staff and have nothing materially change the next couple years, so they're kicking that can down the line. Next year is gonna be another year like this year. Whatever happens happens and no one's really gonna try that hard to change the outcome one way or the other. 2024-25 is when they may make coaching adjustments, but even then I wouldn't expect them until mid-year.

It's for sure frustrating, but that's The Plan®.

Realistic, and not even harsh.

I think that some of us wish that BG had taken that plan and run with it this year, and undergone a mini tank in one of the strongest forward draft years in recent memory. Trade Foligno for a 2023 1st last summer when his value was at an all time high, Dumba, and Zuccarello. Play a rotating group of AHL'ers, Steel, and maybe pick up minimum salary guy if necessary. Make our mediocre team a poor one, but one that is playing and acquiring even more young players.

That would give us 6 picks in the first two rounds of the 2023 draft, making an already strong prospect pool stronger. Was it really worth it to scratch and claw our way into the first round, only to get beaten, yet again, in a way that we have seen time after time? Are those 3 playoff gates really that important?

Where's the long term strategy?

 

[Wabit]

Realistic, and not even harsh.

I think that some of us wish that BG had taken that plan and run with it this year, and undergone a mini tank in one of the strongest forward draft years in recent memory. Trade Foligno for a 2023 1st last summer when his value was at an all time high, Dumba, and Zuccarello. Play a rotating group of AHL'ers, Steel, and maybe pick up minimum salary guy if necessary. Make our mediocre team a poor one, but one that is playing and acquiring even more young players.

That would give us 6 picks in the first two rounds of the 2023 draft, making an already strong prospect pool stronger. Was it really worth it to scratch and claw our way into the first round, only to get beaten, yet again, in a way that we have seen time after time? Are those 3 playoff gates really that important?

Where's the long term strategy?

The long term strategy for the GM is too keep his job as long as possible. He needs to have Playoff teams to do that.
- The buyouts don't happen if the plan is to tank. Adding on 4 years of dead cap after the contracts would have expired naturally. The buyouts + replacement player also cost the owner more real money than just keeping Parise/Suter. This is just awful money management.
-The team was coming off their most standing points in team history. Now we'll just tank the next season?
-MN has had 4 ppg players in their entire team history. Selling off 2 of those 4 in the same offseason?
-Why stop there? Kap should be sold off too. There is no reason to keep him around if the the plan is to tank for a few years.
-Trading 2 players with a letter on their jersey and another liked player also goes against the locker room first mantra the GM has spewed since he was hired. Players want to win and not winning (or really having a chance at winning) corrodes away at the locker room.

It's not just the 3 games of Playoff revenue.
-The fans aren't going to show up just to watch a garbage team in the regular season either. The official attendance might not look bad due to season ticket holders not showing up, or selling below market rate. The real impact would be felt next season as people decided not to renew their tickets. This also mean less in secondary sale of food/drink/souvenirs per game.
-TV numbers would decline too. Bad hockey and bad booth crew (Walz) are not must see tv, and easy to turn off midway though the game. This is also not an immediate impact (well it might be with Ballys bankrupt), but at the next tv rights talks the Wild have a weaker position. Less people watching means the ads spots sell for less; which in turn means a tv station gives the team less money.

 

[57special]

The long term strategy for the GM is too keep his job as long as possible. He needs to have Playoff teams to do that.
- The buyouts don't happen if the plan is to tank. Adding on 4 years of dead cap after the contracts would have expired naturally. The buyouts + replacement player also cost the owner more real money than just keeping Parise/Suter. This is just awful money management.
-The team was coming off their most standing points in team history. Now we'll just tank the next season?
-MN has had 4 ppg players in their entire team history. Selling off 2 of those 4 in the same offseason?
-Why stop there? Kap should be sold off too. There is no reason to keep him around if the the plan is to tank for a few years.
-Trading 2 players with a letter on their jersey and another liked player also goes against the locker room first mantra the GM has spewed since he was hired. Players want to win and not winning (or really having a chance at winning) corrodes away at the locker room.

It's not just the 3 games of Playoff revenue.
-The fans aren't going to show up just to watch a garbage team in the regular season either. The official attendance might not look bad due to season ticket holders not showing up, or selling below market rate. The real impact would be felt next season as people decided not to renew their tickets. This also mean less in secondary sale of food/drink/souvenirs per game.
-TV numbers would decline too. Bad hockey and bad booth crew (Walz) are not must see tv, and easy to turn off midway though the game. This is also not an immediate impact (well it might be with Ballys bankrupt), but at the next tv rights talks the Wild have a weaker position. Less people watching means the ads spots sell for less; which in turn means a tv station gives the team less money.

You’ve got some points, but I will repeat an old Sam Pollock saying, “It’s better to sell off a player one year too soon, than sell him one year too late.”

 

[Wabit]

You’ve got some points, but I will repeat an old Sam Pollock saying, “It’s better to sell off a player one year too soon, than sell him one year too late.”

It's also much easier to do that when the players had almost no rights (free agency was non-existent or nothing like what it is now), there wasn't a salary cap, and the league didn't have near as many teams.

There is truth to the saying, for sure, but it's a much different era in pro sports now.

 

[MNRube]

Spurgeon for Scheifele +
Addison for Brannstrom
Zuccarello for futures
Foligno for B.Schneider
Sign Mayfield @ 4M
Sign Nyquist @ 4M

Rossi-Scheifele-Kaprizov
Mojo-JEE-Boldy
Nyquist-Freddy-Beckman/Walker
Duhaime-Dewar-Reaves

Brodin - Faber
Brannstrom - Mayfield
Hunt/Merrill - Schneider

Gus
MAF

 

[Minnewildsota]

Spurgeon for Scheifele +
Addison for Brannstrom
Zuccarello for futures
Foligno for B.Schneider
Sign Mayfield @ 4M
Sign Nyquist @ 4M

Rossi-Scheifele-Kaprizov
Mojo-JEE-Boldy
Nyquist-Freddy-Beckman/Walker
Duhaime-Dewar-Reaves

Brodin - Faber
Brannstrom - Mayfield
Hunt/Merrill - Schneider

Gus
MAF

It's nice to dream.

 

[57special]

It's also much easier to do that when the players had almost no rights (free agency was non-existent or nothing like what it is now), there wasn't a salary cap, and the league didn't have near as many teams.

There is truth to the saying, for sure, but it's a much different era in pro sports now.

We sure as hell could've traded Foligno for a 1st last summer. Good luck doing that now.

 

[MNRube]

We sure as hell could've traded Foligno for a 1st last summer. Good luck doing that now.

I question whether a single GM in the league would’ve made that trade at the time. Foligno is still only 31 and can recoup that value fairly easily with a decent year. Look at what Jeannot went for.

I’m more annoyed with the mismanagement of Addison. It was obvious Faber was going to be better and it’s hard to hide two tiny RHD so the long-term fit was always questionable. But he could’ve been moved earlier in the year while those secondary PP assists gave him trade value. instead, now his relationship with the FO and his trade value are in shambles.

 

[Minnewildsota]

I question whether a single GM in the league would’ve made that trade at the time. Foligno is still only 31 and can recoup that value fairly easily with a decent year. Look at what Jeannot went for.

I’m more annoyed with the mismanagement of Addison. It was obvious Faber was going to be better and it’s hard to hide two tiny RHD so the long-term fit was always questionable. But he could’ve been moved earlier in the year while those secondary PP assists gave him trade value. instead, now his relationship with the FO and his trade value are in shambles.

This is blown way out of proportion.