Speculation: 2023-24-25 Sharks Roster Discussion

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I'd say it's a good approach on Kunin, Sturm, etc. because it has less to do with the actual return as much as it does just setting up to not be runover/waited out in future negotiations.

The difference between getting a 3rd or 4th for one of those guys (or just keeping them) isn't going to be franchise altering. The important piece is not letting another GM just wait you out to the final hour and force you to take whatever they will give you because that sets precedent to do again and again.
I don’t even think it’s worth the hassle of negotiating for guys like Kunin. If Grier has a price he should just stick with it. If he doesn’t get what he wants then just let him ride out into the sunset.

For Sturm, I’d actually like is to re-sign him if he’s interested. I think he’s a good bottom 6 guy who is good on face offs and seems to have his moments.
 
I think you’re missing the key point. We are a week away from the deadline. Every team is going to stick to their price until the last minute.
You're missing the point! The point is that the quote suggests that if Grier's price on Kunin isn't met, he won't trade him AT ALL. Not that he'll lower his price at the last minute if he doesn't get it.

I'd say it's a good approach on Kunin, Sturm, etc. because it has less to do with the actual return as much as it does just setting up to not be runover/waited out in future negotiations.

The difference between getting a 3rd or 4th for one of those guys (or just keeping them) isn't going to be franchise altering. The important piece is not letting another GM just wait you out to the final hour and force you to take whatever they will give you because that sets precedent to do again and again.
Yup, I have no problem with this approach. If no one is forking over at least a 3rd for Kunin, I'd rather keep him and let him walk. He's a good guy and a decent player and having him around the last 25 games for the culture and because he's a legit NHLer is more valuable than a 4th round pick IMO. And you're 100% right that Grier sticking to his guns shows that you can't just wait him out and low-ball him and sets that precedent for when it matters.
 
You're missing the point! The point is that the quote suggests that if Grier's price on Kunin isn't met, he won't trade him AT ALL. Not that he'll lower his price at the last minute if he doesn't get it.


Yup, I have no problem with this approach. If no one is forking over at least a 3rd for Kunin, I'd rather keep him and let him walk. He's a good guy and a decent player and having him around the last 25 games for the culture and because he's a legit NHLer is more valuable than a 4th round pick IMO. And you're 100% right that Grier sticking to his guns shows that you can't just wait him out and low-ball him and sets that precedent for when it matters.
It’s all posturing. Just like every single deadline ever.
 
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If that’s the best offer, yes.

More realistically I think this will be the Barabanov situation all over again.
The Barabanov situation is that literally no one wanted him even for free. For all his faults, Kunin will have suitors if the price is cheap.

How about an informal bet? If Kunin is traded for less than a 3rd, you win, if he isn't traded at all, I win. If Kunin is traded for a 3rd or better, the bet is null.
 
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Gus Nyquist just got back a 2nd (with retention, yes. But still... He's been ass this year)

Grier should hold out for a 1st and 3rd for Kunin :P


That said: If you're in a position of negotiating, you can't ever let on that you'll just take whatever the best offer is at the end of the day. That's how you get taken advantage of when teams realize that you're posturing by asking for a 1st, but will ultimately cave and accept a 3rd and a 4th if that's all anyone will offer. If teams know that, they'll eventually stop even bothering feigning consideration for meeting your asking price and just lowball you with the expectation that you'll cave and take whatever's on the table when the clock starts ticking.

This does require you to be able to fairly assess the value of your trade chips (ie you have to only ask for a 1st when you have a reasonable expectation that you could/should get one. If you said "I want 2 1sts and a b-tier prospect for Jan Rutta" and teams only offer you a conditional 6th then you have to figure out if it's a matter of you asking for too much or them just trying to be cheap)

The first thing you get taught if you learn about negotiating is that you have to a) be willing to accept that sometimes no deal is better than a bad deal even if you lose out on assets in the end and b) be able to set a 'walk-away" threshold where you identify what the absolute minimum you can reasonably accept without feeling like you were taken for a ride is and resolve yourself that if the offers go beyond that point you will choose to leave the table and accept that no deal is getting done.
 
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Yep. Our D is so amazingly terrible, its hard to believe. Our clear #1 guy was a cast off that had negative value on his previous team. Great find and all, but really? Liljgren was a cast off healthy scratch. I can see why. none of the kids of thompson, thrun, or shak look great. Shak is starting to look like he belongs, but hardly shining just yet. Ferraro is capped out and clearly not it.

They need to add 2-3 top 4 Dmen, in their mid 20s, over the next year or two. I agree that Dick and the rest of the current system D cannot be counted on to be top 4 D. They might, but they might not, and even if they do, its likely at least 2-3 years before that happens at best. Another 3 years of dead last, and then having to resign smith, celly, and eklund after their ELC's is not a good recipe. They need to get some real blueliners so they can begin to be respectable and start climbing out of this hole.

This summer is another big test for grier. Once again, he has proven that he is respectable at getting rid of talent, getting some value for blackwood, grandlund, and ceci after the karlsson, meier, hertl, etc trades. But, he has yet to show himself capable of really ADDING talent. Wennberg for 5M? Kunin? Gundstrom? Dyllandrea? Kostin? Goodrow? Lindbom? Sturm? Liljgren?... He has excelled at largely overpaying for 3/4th liners or bottom pair D who couldnt get much a regular shift on their previous teams. Toffoli is the only player he has added to the organization who can actually play a top 6 role and walman is the only D who has shown a top 4 capability.

I get the idea of shedding talent to build up assets for a rebuild. But, at some point, you have to start going into talent acquisition mode? You dont mortgage the future for it, but you also cannot hope to add players off the trash heap, overpay them, and just pray that your kids will suddenly star. That is a recipe for indefinite bottom feeding and ultimately even losing your young stars 7+ years down the line as they hop ship to a much healthier and more enjoyable experience elsewhere. SJ has become a wholly unwanted desitination, and Grier has to change that.

p.s.: the sharks OT strategy is mindbogglingly dumb. Why are they so damn impatient??? In OT, when you get posession, you should NEVER give it up. even if you just play catch for 5 minutes. The whole key is patience, you speed up the ice, circle and make the other team chase you. Do that for 2 minutes but never shoot. Never force anything. Eventually, the other team will be exhausted from a 2+ minute shift running around chasing you. In the meantime, you change twice. Then you have fresh legs full of energy against an opposition that cannt move. it wont be long before you have a back door tap in. hell, even a great save is OK, because the opponent wont be able to do anything even if they get posession as they will be in full muscle failure and you will be fresh. Game after game, you see the sharks get posession in OT then try to immediately force something with somewhat low percentage. Sure, you get a shot, but then its saved and against a good team, you never touch the puck again. I am befuddled how dumb they are...

We've started talent acquisition mode? Tofolli, Wennberg, Askarov, Walman, Liljigren- that's a lot of value acquired in a year. I think repeating that this summer would be a home run.

Grundstrom, Dellandrea, Koistin, and Lindbolm were misses, though the first two are fine 12/13th forwards. Total cost was Burroughs, a 4th, 6th, and Simek. Lindbolm was an upside pick to try and steal a middle six forward, didn't work out. Who cares? In another world Delly is a home run, and Zetterlund is a miss. If you have 10 small deals like these and you get 1 win, and 2-3 pushes that's fine.

Really don't understand the issue with Wennberg. Top 200 for scoring among forwards. Plays center, pks (third duo) and is okay (48%) at faceoffs. While not particularly physical he's 6'2. We signed him for two years- two years in which we'll have $20M in cap space. Next year- if not extended- he'll bring back a second at the deadline. If we could sign three more Wennberg's next year, we should! He's also a leader.

The NHL isn't an equal market. Just because someone else gets a player in free agency or trade, doesn't mean that the Sharks can get them. Sometimes they can. However, if you want Grier to grab a guy in free agency, ask yourself a few things: 1) Would I still want this deal if we had to pay 10-20% more due to San Jose tax/cost of living (omitted for Chicago, NY, Socal, Can). 2) Does this player value winning in this contract? If so, SJ will probably be poor so how do we make up for that 3) Would I be willing to increase the term by 1-2 years (probably years where they will be worse, and have a larger cap hit than signed with different teams. In terms of trades, sometimes we won't have the right fit (Borgen RHD for Kakko- both would have been good fits, but we didn't have the pieces). No guarantee a 2nd pair D will be available for a fair price, or even a worth the overpay price.

I want the Sharks to grab a top 6 forward, a top 9 forward, backup 1A/goalie, good second pair RHD, and a 4/5 level RHD to push Liljigren down. However, is it realistic? Will it require a ridiculous deal i.e.

Marner- 7x$15.5M
Bennett/Ehlers- 7x$10.5M
Ekblad/Chychrun/Gavrikov- 7x$10M
Boseser- 7x$9.25M
Pionk- 7x$8.5M
Nelson/Granlund- 4x$8.5M
Kovacevic- 6x$7M
Fabbro- 5x$5.5M
Frederic/Evans- 4x$5M
Jake Allen- 3x$4.5M
Savard- 2x$3.75M

All of those contracts are going to be bad. I don't love any of those deals, but I'd probably do Gavrikov, even though I think he's a $7.5-8M d-man. $2.5M premium to grab a guy who could solve the #2-4 D-man for the next 5-6 years (years 6/7 may very well be bottom pairing). I might go for Frederic/Evans, Jake Allen, and Savard (he'd be overpaid by $1.5-2M each year) as well.

Our RHD is an embarrassment, but 25 teams will want a 2nd pair D this summer. We need two which means a guy like Savard (who's a good #6) might be what we have to settle on.
 
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Gavrikov just switched to Celebrini/Toffoli's agent. Left shot but has mostly played on the right side this year.

Wennberg's too- who like you I'm thinking we should plan to re-sign for 2-3 years (though that decision can be made after trying to sign Granlund, Frederic, Evans, and Nelson this summer. The same agent attention while thinking about future agents. Our only two marquee free agents in the last (5?) years share the agent of our superstar.

Jux covered this elsewhere, but Gavrikov is the best fit UFA d-man for us. Proven 2/3 d-man, plays both sides, 6'3, and while he's not an offensive threat he can move the puck. Might be cheaper than Ekblad. He could play with Walman next year and then be placed with a Schaefer/Verhoeff if we were to get so lucky. If we ended up with Schaefer, having the third LHD after him and Dickinson be a big guy who plays tough minutes would help provide more balance. Though with our RHD issues, he'd probably end up there more years than not.

He'd cost a fortune, but locking up a top 4 spot for 5 years with a skillset we lack would be a huge win.
 
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The Athletic has a piece up highlighting one player/pick that each team could be most likely to deal.

Buffalo lists Henri Jokiharju. He's a pending UFA, but he's a right shot guy with some offensive ability and who has mostly been in the dog house with the Sabres. Plus he's only 25.

I wonder if he might be worth taking a shot on. Get him cheap, let him audition for the rest of the year, and then try to retain him with the promise of regular playing time going forward.

FTR, the shark's option is Nico Sturm because everyone needs 4Cs at playoff time.
 
We've started talent acquisition mode? Tofolli, Wennberg, Askarov, Walman, Liljigren- that's a lot of value acquired in a year. I think repeating that this summer would be a home run.
Fully agree on this. We need to repeat this level of talent acquisition in UFA/trade this summer.

The dream would be signing Gavrikov/Ekblad/Kovacevic/Fabbro (in that order of preference), a solid middle-six forward (center if you aren't willing to play Smith there next season), a good 1B goaltender, and trade for another RHD. I think Schaefer would make our roster if we drafted him on merit.

I would say any prospect outside of Chernyshov and Dickinson could be dangled for help. Musty, Bystedt, Halttunen, Cagnoni, Mukhamadullin, Dallas 1st, 33rd overall, and top-5 protected 2026 1st would be assets I'd be willing to move in the right trade.

I wouldn't hate stepping up and going for Cozens, with the knowledge that he's a winger and not a center. He could fit nicely on that 2LW with Smith and Zetterlund and play C in a pinch when injuries happen.

As mentioned extensively, I would definitely test the waters on Nemec and Dobson at second pairing prices. Bystedt and a small plus for Nemec or something around Musty/Mukh/Dallas 1st for Dobson (basically reverse Meier trade).

Eklund-Celebrini-Toffoli
[UFA/Trade]-Smith-Zetterlund
Kovalenko-Wennberg-Graf
Cardwell-[UFA]-Duehr/Dellandrea

Walman-[UFA]
Schaefer-[Trade]
Ferraro/Mukhamadullin-Liljegren

Askarov
[UFA]

Feels like a roster that could finish ~8-10th worst, would would be a huge improvement. I didn't hate our current forward core at all with Granlund here, so just replace Granlund and I think they would score a lot more with decent puck-moving defense and a real PPQB.
 
As mentioned extensively, I would definitely test the waters on Nemec and Dobson at second pairing prices. Bystedt and a small plus for Nemec or something around Musty/Mukh/Dallas 1st for Dobson (basically reverse Meier trade).

Eklund-Celebrini-Toffoli
[UFA/Trade]-Smith-Zetterlund
Kovalenko-Wennberg-Graf
Cardwell-[UFA]-Duehr/Dellandrea

Walman-[UFA]
Schaefer-[Trade]
Ferraro/Mukhamadullin-Liljegren

Askarov
[UFA]

Feels like a roster that could finish ~8-10th worst, would would be a huge improvement. I didn't hate our current forward core at all with Granlund here, so just replace Granlund and I think they would score a lot more with decent puck-moving defense and a real PPQB.
The more I read, the more it seems that Dobson isn't going to be moved. Nemec seems like a project at this point (and the team needs a surer thing). Perhaps Byram...
 
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The Barabanov situation is that literally no one wanted him even for free. For all his faults, Kunin will have suitors if the price is cheap.

How about an informal bet? If Kunin is traded for less than a 3rd, you win, if he isn't traded at all, I win. If Kunin is traded for a 3rd or better, the bet is null.
NYR wanted Barabanov. It was confirmed by Sheng.

I mean if you want. I don’t really care enough but sure. I think Friedman said the price was a 2nd though.
 
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Historically bad as they are they shouldn't trade any of Wennberg or Ferraro. They got great value for Blackwood but then that also sparked the huge decline. I truly believe they are not performing to their record but losing anymore pieces and throwing youth in is stupid. Keep trading away some known value and expect a Askorov hyped prospect to fill in didn't work too well. How is GMMG going to get a solid Free Agent to come to the sharks next year anyway? Why would any UFA want to sign with the Sharks and their shitty record with a unproven rookie coach when every team has extra cap space to sign them. It would be nice to have a Taffoli situation come up but that was nice timing.
 
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Historically bad as they are they shouldn't trade any of Wennberg or Ferraro. They got great value for Blackwood but then that also sparked the huge decline. I truly believe they are not performing to their record but losing anymore pieces and throwing youth in is stupid. Keep trading away some known value and expect a Askorov hyped prospect to fill in didn't work too well. How is GMMG going to get a solid Free Agent to come to the sharks next year anyway? Why would any UFA want to sign with the Sharks and their shitty record with a unproven rookie coach when every team has extra cap space to sign them. It would be nice to have a Taffoli situation come up but that was nice timing.
They should if it makes them a better team. The team before the Blackwood trade started the season with nine straight losses. It didn't spark any decline. They had this in them the whole time because they're still a bad team. Typically, rebuilding teams trying to get two teenage rookies experience are like that. The way Grier is going to get someone solid is like how they got Toffoli and Wennberg after a historically bad season. You pay them. There's only so much opportunity out there. And if none do, trade for them. They have the expendable assets to make the improvements they want this offseason.
 
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The more I read, the more it seems that Dobson isn't going to be moved. Nemec seems like a project at this point (and the team needs a surer thing). Perhaps Byram...
What makes you say that about Dobson? I haven't read anything on him lately but have noticed he's playing PP 2 behind DeAngelo, which I took to be more smoke to the fire that he's on his was out.
 
Fully agree on this. We need to repeat this level of talent acquisition in UFA/trade this summer.

The dream would be signing Gavrikov/Ekblad/Kovacevic/Fabbro (in that order of preference), a solid middle-six forward (center if you aren't willing to play Smith there next season), a good 1B goaltender, and trade for another RHD. I think Schaefer would make our roster if we drafted him on merit.

I would say any prospect outside of Chernyshov and Dickinson could be dangled for help. Musty, Bystedt, Halttunen, Cagnoni, Mukhamadullin, Dallas 1st, 33rd overall, and top-5 protected 2026 1st would be assets I'd be willing to move in the right trade.

I wouldn't hate stepping up and going for Cozens, with the knowledge that he's a winger and not a center. He could fit nicely on that 2LW with Smith and Zetterlund and play C in a pinch when injuries happen.

As mentioned extensively, I would definitely test the waters on Nemec and Dobson at second pairing prices. Bystedt and a small plus for Nemec or something around Musty/Mukh/Dallas 1st for Dobson (basically reverse Meier trade).

Eklund-Celebrini-Toffoli
[UFA/Trade]-Smith-Zetterlund
Kovalenko-Wennberg-Graf
Cardwell-[UFA]-Duehr/Dellandrea

Walman-[UFA]
Schaefer-[Trade]
Ferraro/Mukhamadullin-Liljegren

Askarov
[UFA]

Feels like a roster that could finish ~8-10th worst, would would be a huge improvement. I didn't hate our current forward core at all with Granlund here, so just replace Granlund and I think they would score a lot more with decent puck-moving defense and a real PPQB.
I like a lot of what you're saying here but the bolded really caught my attention.

My base line assumption has been that even in Schaefer is Makar good (I don't think anyone is going this far), he still won't be ready to jump in right way.

I know you've spent time watching Schaefer, so I ask this with more intrigue than critique. Is the difference that he's playing in the OHL not NCAA or ice there something about Schaefer's game specifically that leads you to believe he will buck the trend here?
 
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I like a lot of what you're saying here but the bolded really caught my attention.

My base line assumption has been that even in Schaefer is Makar good (I don't think anyone is going this far), he still won't be ready to jump in right way.

I know you've spent time watching Schaefer, so I ask this with more intrigue than critique. Is the difference that he's playing in the OHL not NCAA or ice there something about Schaefer's game specifically that leads you to believe he will buck the trend here?
Makar is an interesting comparison because he was playing in the AJHL, which is a really bad league, in his draft year despite being an October birthday. His first NCAA season was good but far from dominant (I recall Ferraro looking almost as good in their freshman seasons at UMass). His only WJC appearance in his D+1/age 19 season was great, not elite. He really exploded in development in his sophomore season, after which he jumped straight into the Avs playoff run at age 20 and seven months. He was a bit of a late bloomer, in that sense.

I've noticed a pattern with Schaefer. Every time he jumps up to a new level of hockey, he is shockingly good. U18, U20, easy.

I definitely am higher on Schaefer than a lot of people, so I may just be being optimistic, but if Celebrini can turn 18 and immediately be our #1C, I see no reason that Schaefer can't turn 18 and immediately be a quality bottom pairing D at least. The tools that he has that are elite (skating, handling, composure, IQ) are the things that most young defenseman struggle with and need to improve before being effective NHL defensemen. Schaefer's processing speed is elite, I don't think he'd look out of place at all in the NHL.

Think about the aspects of Dickinson that looked raw and underdeveloped at NHL camp last September: quickness, processing speed, decision making, bobbling pucks. Those are things that Schaefer already does at an NHL level. The only reason to send Schaefer back is because he simply hasn't played a lot of hockey in his draft year. It would just be to get reps with his agemates and build strength. Or to avoid putting him in a position to get hurt against men.

I also think that the NCAA route is not something that Schaefer will seriously pursue, because NCAA guys can't attend NHL training camps. So if he went NCAA, he wouldn't even be making an attempt to make the NHL next season. That doesn't sound like Matthew Schaefer to me.

Again, I'm very high on him. And there are legit reasons to send him back to Erie. But if he doesn't make the NHL on a roster like the Sharks, I don't think it'll be because he isn't one of the six best defensemen in the org. He's the best defense prospect to come along since Rasmus Dahlin.
 
Historically bad as they are they shouldn't trade any of Wennberg or Ferraro. They got great value for Blackwood but then that also sparked the huge decline. I truly believe they are not performing to their record but losing anymore pieces and throwing youth in is stupid. Keep trading away some known value and expect a Askorov hyped prospect to fill in didn't work too well. How is GMMG going to get a solid Free Agent to come to the sharks next year anyway? Why would any UFA want to sign with the Sharks and their shitty record with a unproven rookie coach when every team has extra cap space to sign them. It would be nice to have a Taffoli situation come up but that was nice timing.
They should trade Ferraro because no team needs 6 bottom pair defensemen
 
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Historically bad as they are they shouldn't trade any of Wennberg or Ferraro. They got great value for Blackwood but then that also sparked the huge decline. I truly believe they are not performing to their record but losing anymore pieces and throwing youth in is stupid. Keep trading away some known value and expect a Askorov hyped prospect to fill in didn't work too well. How is GMMG going to get a solid Free Agent to come to the sharks next year anyway? Why would any UFA want to sign with the Sharks and their shitty record with a unproven rookie coach when every team has extra cap space to sign them. It would be nice to have a Taffoli situation come up but that was nice timing.
I mean they just signed Toffoli and Wennberg in FA.

Why would they not trade the guys that led them to this record with no chance at improvement?
 

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