Speculation: 2023-24-25 Sharks Roster Discussion

[weastern bias]

We did more than draft a couple awesome teenagers though. Losing guys like Hoffman, Labanc, and Burroughs for real NHL'ers like Toffoli, Wennberg, and Ceci along with getting rid of guys like Zadina and Addison for guys like Grundstrom and Walman is going to make them better. I don't think a 20 point improvement is unrealistic when there was a lot of room for improvement and going from guys that were absolutely addition by subtraction to guys that are maybe just net-zero. I don't think we're playoff caliber by a mile but they got a lot more NHL caliber players on their roster than last year.

Celebrini and Smith are the only foundational pieces we are adding to this roster aside from possibly Askarov if he hits and is ahead of schedule, everything else is largely window dressing

We weren't historically bad because of our depth, we were historically bad because the top of the lineup had nothing to offer, which is still true on the defense

I think the one thing you are not factoring in is that last year's team was decimated with injuries. If the team had a full year of Couture and Hertl, they wouldn't have been a 47 point team. If they simply win 5 more games, they would have been a 57 point team.

And can they go from what they should have got last year (57ish) to 61? Sure, easily.

Sounds like a lot of "ifs" and "buts", what actually happened?

Also, Couture still isn't skating, we need to start acting like he isn't available, he sure seems to be doing so

 

[sharski]

If all those reports of HCDQ having literally no system in place are true and warsofsky is actually going to implement a system of some kind, that means they're definitely gonna be better, right?

No system is always worse than any legit system

I think

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Celebrini and Smith are the only foundational pieces we are adding to this roster aside from possibly Askarov if he hits and is ahead of schedule, everything else is largely window dressing

We weren't historically bad because of our depth, we were historically bad because the top of the lineup had nothing to offer, which is still true on the defense

Maybe so but window dressing plus foundational pieces is still significantly better than no foundational pieces and largely sub-NHL depth. The top four on defense though still not good is a dramatic improvement from last year. Our top four was Ferraro, Rutta, Thrun, and Burroughs. This year it looks like it's Ferraro, Ceci, Walman, and Rutta. That's still not good but it's definitely better. The forwards are similar. Yeah, it's still not great but our top six last year was Granlund, Hertl, Zetterlund, Eklund, Duclair, and Barabanov with Kunin, Sturm, and Hoffman as the next three in forward ice time with over 40 games played. Then it's Zadina, Labanc, Bailey, and Carpenter. Replacing that top six with Granlund, Eklund, Zetterlund, Celebrini, Toffoli, and say Wennberg is probably a wash but Smith is probably at worst in that depth tier where Kunin, Sturm, and Hoffman are. Smith with any of what's left whether that's Kostin or Goodrow or Grundstrom or Dellandrea has a good chance of being better than Kunin and Hoffman were overall. If the team succeeds in putting both Kunin and Sturm in that 4th line tier rather than their 3rd line tier then that window dressing will do a lot to keep them in games and get them to steal more wins.

 

[Mattb124]

The best plan is no plan at all.

 

[weastern bias]

I am agreeing that this team is much better

They're still not going to improve by 13 wins

I think we hover around 25 wins and 55 points, a massive jump from last year, still well below the betting lines some posters have wasted their money on

2026 is when I look for a real jump, once the kids have had a taste and taken their lumps and are starting to understand what it really takes to win games in this league

The big unknown here really is Warsofsky, he could be a revelation, he could also be a dud

Dallas Eakins is an incredible AHL coach, he was dog shit in the NHL, we don't know if Warsofsky is like Eakins or like Jon Cooper or Jared Bednar, he could also be mid as hell like Sheldon Keefe, AHL success is not indicative of NHL success, even if it is encouraging

 

[sampler]

I am agreeing that this team is much better

They're still not going to improve by 13 wins

I think we hover around 25 wins and 55 points, a massive jump from last year, still well below the betting lines some posters have wasted their money on

2026 is when I look for a real jump, once the kids have had a taste and taken their lumps and are starting to understand what it really takes to win games in this league

The big unknown here really is Warsofsky, he could be a revelation, he could also be a dud

Dallas Eakins is an incredible AHL coach, he was dog shit in the NHL, we don't know if Warsofsky is like Eakins or like Jon Cooper or Jared Bednar, he could also be mid as hell like Sheldon Keefe, AHL success is not indicative of NHL success, even if it is encouraging

My guess, like yours, is as good as any. Saying they will be better, but still in the bottom 2 is a very reasonable guess. I also agree with you that the D is dog poop. They still have no real top pairing Dman, and only mediocre second pairing guys as their top line. It's weak. The forwards are also still weak. The Lund line is pretty solid and it's fair to expect improvement from Eklund and Zetterlund (with Grandlund staying rather constant as he's not that old.) Toffoli is a proven 25-30 goal scorer, and I expect similar. The big question is the kids as well as the rest of the depth forwards. The coach, as you said, is also a big question mark and Askarov may be too.

Tons of question marks and if you are right, I guess I'm out $340...

However, its those question marks that make me think bottom 3 is too low. I also feel that even last years exact roster would be better this year if nothing else than development by the existing kids (thrun, eklund, zetterlund...). However, this years roster is upgraded at every position.

Lund lund + year of development > Lund line last year
Toffoli = hertl (toffoli may be better when considering his cup experience, excitement to be here, and health)
Celebrini >>> Hoffman
Smith > Labanc
Wennberg = Duclair (Duclair gives more O, Wennberg better on D)
Dylandrea, Grundstrom, Goodrow > Barabonov, Zadina, Carpenter, Etc.
Injury callups this year > Injury call ups last year (the cuda are much deeper, and even guys like Bailey, Bordy, Gush, etc are better than Studnicka or whoever).

Basically at least 1/2 of the forward positions are upgraded, and I would argue no downgrades. How upgraded will depend on the kids, but its upgraded nevertheless, and they can withstand injuries better too (assumes no cooch).

D:
Ceci >Ohtiuk
Walman > Borroughs
Benning > Emberson
Thrun this year > Thrun next year (most likely)
and of course Mukh remains a wild card too.

Again at least 1/2 the D is upgraded.

Warsofsky > Quinn... ive never seen players throw a coach so under the bus as barabanov and even a current player, sturm, did. Sounds truly amazing...

All of this assumes no upside surprises either like Musty coming on to the scene, Thompson, cardwell, gush, Haltunnen, Bystedt, or bordy making a big leap, any of which is a very distinct possibility. It also assumed that Smith and celly have moderate 40-50 pt seasons, and neither really takes the league by storm, which of course, could happen.

If all goes poorly, we will be somewhat improved from last year and be in the upper 50's in points. I lose $340.

If all goes pretty well, we will be in the 70-80 pt range which puts up in the bottom 10 but not bottom 5. I win $60.

If all goes VERY well, we pull off a vegas expansion style season, since we are kinda an expansion team- like nearly a whole new roster, with all new players, a new coach, and all. 109 pts and a stanley cup final appearance. If that happens, I make a nice $10,500.

 

[coooldude]

I'd be very surprised if we were under 52 points.

I'd be very surprised if we were over 67 points.

I won't be surprised if we land anywhere in the middle.

But any of those outcomes are possible. Except Couture playing a full season. I still think he's not likely to break 5 games this season and very well may be done forever.

 

[sampler]

BTW, every year there are surprises. Guys drafted highly that seem to falter only to explode on the scene. Or guys who seem destined for 4th line careers suddenly get a shot and grasp it.

William Karlsson was a 4th line, 25 pt player in columbus. Then suddenly, the next year, he's a 43 goal, 78 pt player in vegas in a different system, with a different coach, and a different culture and opportunity. Who saw that coming?

yanni Gourde was actually in the sharks system as a nobody. A career minor leaguer gets a shot in tampa, and boom, 25 goals, 64 pts, +34.

Carter Verheage spent multiple years in the ECHL and tons of AHL time. He was a nothing. Then suddenly at 27 years old, he becomes a 70+ pt NHLer and now a cup champion.

These stories are commonplace. There are dozens of players who were either career minor leaguers and then finally got a shot, or mired in depth roles on one team only to get a legit shot on another and thrive.

Zetterlund is a great example of just that player, and he referenced so in his interview. In NJ, he was mired on a depth line, but in SJ he got his first legit chance and he grabbed it. I would not be in the least bit surprised to see dyllandrea emerge as a legit top 6 forward for the same reason. 13th overall pick. good size at 6'2". Showed flashes in dallas, but he was a depth player on a strong roster. Comes to SJ and may get top 6 looks including some PP time. I could see him going off easily this year.

There is alot of excitement and positivity around the sharks this year and alot of things that could go right. They could also realllllly stink. But, they have alot of guys will Big upsides. Zetterlund ,Eklund, Celly, Smith, Dylandrea, Mukh, Thrun, Walman, and Askarov are all guys with significant upside potential to see big boosts in production. Hell, even Kostin and the AHlers (bordy, gush...) have legit potential. Quite possible they all falter. Quite possible they don't.

BTW, who saw the Canucks going from 83 pts, good for 6th in the pacific and well out of the playoffs up to 109 pts, comfortably tops in the pacific. Teams make big leaps all the time, and big collapses too. Devils fell from 112 to 81 pts last year. Did you guys see that coming...

 

[sampler]

I'd be very surprised if we were under 52 points.

I'd be very surprised if we were over 67 points.

I won't be surprised if we land anywhere in the middle.

But any of those outcomes are possible. Except Couture playing a full season. I still think he's not likely to break 5 games this season and very well may be done forever.

That's in line with most predictions. Hence a 63.5 (or 64.5, sorry dude!!) line. I wonder if that line began at 63.5 and went up? Could be money going onto the sharks over....

Cooch is done. I predict we never see him play again. I hope im wrong, but I think hes toast. He hasnt skated since the end of january. Thats reallllly long, and his timeline just gets pushed further and further back. He's 35 and bodies dont heal as well at that age either. I wonder what will happen with the captaincy? Ferraro? Granlund? Toffoli?... or the great irony.... Goodrow?

BTW, reinhart only ecclipsed 50 pts once in his 7 years in buffalo. Then he got 82, 67, and 94 in FLA. Sam Bennet had over 26 pts once in 6 season in CGY. Then he goes for 49, 40, 41 in FLA. Verhaege I mentioned earlier. Montour had ecclipsed 25 pts only once in his career. Comes to FLA 37, 73, 33.

Coaches and systems matter. Maurice is a very very good coach. He took a bunch of guys who hadnt done all that much prior and boom. I dont know if warsofsky is that good, but a good system, especially a good defensive system, turns so-so teams into very good teams very fast. Boughner and Quinn were horrific coaches. Warsofky comes with far better reputation despite being a rookie head coach. If he puts in a good defensive system, we are going to be WAAAAY better....

 

[tiburon12]

all this odds talk reminds me how mad i am that I didnt hammer the under on the sharks pt totals last year. That was a layup bet

 

[Celly4Celebrini]

Until it loses

i mean hes already said hes comfortable enough financially that the 340 doesnt matter win or lose.

its a season long bet. Assuming it makes the games interesting for him, that works out to approx 2.50 a game ish for the points bet, $4 per game for it overall.

If it makes him enjoy the game more is it really a problem? Its not like he's betting to win rent money.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Looks like Adam Larsson has an extension with Seattle. Good news for Cody Ceci's trade value at the deadline, bad news for people hoping their team would sign Adam Larsson next summer (me).

 

[LilLeeroy]

That's in line with most predictions. Hence a 63.5 (or 64.5, sorry dude!!) line. I wonder if that line began at 63.5 and went up? Could be money going onto the sharks over....

Cooch is done. I predict we never see him play again. I hope im wrong, but I think hes toast. He hasnt skated since the end of january. Thats reallllly long, and his timeline just gets pushed further and further back. He's 35 and bodies dont heal as well at that age either. I wonder what will happen with the captaincy? Ferraro? Granlund? Toffoli?... or the great irony.... Goodrow?

BTW, reinhart only ecclipsed 50 pts once in his 7 years in buffalo. Then he got 82, 67, and 94 in FLA. Sam Bennet had over 26 pts once in 6 season in CGY. Then he goes for 49, 40, 41 in FLA. Verhaege I mentioned earlier. Montour had ecclipsed 25 pts only once in his career. Comes to FLA 37, 73, 33.

Coaches and systems matter. Maurice is a very very good coach. He took a bunch of guys who hadnt done all that much prior and boom. I dont know if warsofsky is that good, but a good system, especially a good defensive system, turns so-so teams into very good teams very fast. Boughner and Quinn were horrific coaches. Warsofky comes with far better reputation despite being a rookie head coach. If he puts in a good defensive system, we are going to be WAAAAY better....

Wasn't Warsofsky in charge of the defensive system last season? I don't think canning Quinn who oversaw some of the most successful aspects of last years team (the PP) and promoting the guy who was in charge of the worst is any sort of likely improvement.

Last year the Sharks actually outperformed their underlying metrics, and their two best players Granlund and Blackwood are probably due for some regression based on their previous seasons.

 

[sampler]

Wasn't Warsofsky in charge of the defensive system last season? I don't think canning Quinn who oversaw some of the most successful aspects of last years team (the PP) and promoting the guy who was in charge of the worst is any sort of likely improvement.

He ran the D and pk. But not the overall team system (or lack thereof).

The Sharks problem last year was a five man problem. The pk was reasonable. Warspfsky didn’t run the breakout or transition or even dzone coverage. But he will now….

Admittedly I wanted carle or gallant. But waraofsky is warming on me…

Looks like Adam Larsson has an extension with Seattle. Good news for Cody Ceci's trade value at the deadline, bad news for people hoping their team would sign Adam Larsson next summer (me).

That’s a bummer! I wanted him for sure…. He and Petterson were my top targets…

 

[Hodge]

Looks like Adam Larsson has an extension with Seattle. Good news for Cody Ceci's trade value at the deadline, bad news for people hoping their team would sign Adam Larsson next summer (me).

That's such a great contract for Seattle. I was hoping we would be able to land Larsson on something similar to the Toffoli deal but there goes that dream.

Unless we're offered a 1st for Ceci I would just extend him at the deadline. Even if we're lucky enough to land someone like Dobson, Ekblad or Theodore to be our 1RD next summer the rest of our RD depth chart would be Matt Benning and a bunch of question marks.

 

[Juxtaposer]

That's such a great contract for Seattle. I was hoping we would be able to land Larsson on something similar to the Toffoli deal but there goes that dream.

Unless we're offered a 1st for Ceci I would just extend him at the deadline. Even if we're lucky enough to land someone like Dobson, Ekblad or Theodore to be our 1RD next summer the rest of our RD depth chart would be Matt Benning and a bunch of question marks.

I kind of have him in the same boat as Granlund. If he's having a legit solid season, is fitting in well with the kids and the room, and is interested in sticking around past this season, then I would think about just keeping him unless he returns a 1st.

 

[sampler]

I kind of have him in the same boat as Granlund. If he's having a legit solid season, is fitting in well with the kids and the room, and is interested in sticking around past this season, then I would think about just keeping him unless he returns a 1st.

Yeah I agree… although I think it all depends on the year. If we finish dead last, trade Ceci for what you can get. If we are much more respectable and clearly on the way up, then keeping him makes more sense.

I think you gotta play this one by ear.

 

[mogambomoroo]

I don't understand why doesn't MG just sign a player like Justin Schultz to one year 3-4 mil deal to run the powerplay and take another RD spot? It would be better to have more NHL veterans in this team, and even better on that right side to help out upcoming LD's Mukh and Thrun.
We would have a top 4 of Walman, Ceci, Schultz and Ferraro/Thrun/Mukh rather than Vlasic, Rutta etc... Benning is very fine as 3rd pair RD. That would at least bring some competitive edge to that defence, it's still far from good but it's still better for the rookies.

 

[Barrie22]

I don't understand why doesn't MG just sign a player like Justin Schultz to one year 3-4 mil deal to run the powerplay and take another RD spot? It would be better to have more NHL veterans in this team, and even better on that right side to help out upcoming LD's Mukh and Thrun.
We would have a top 4 of Walman, Ceci, Schultz and Ferraro/Thrun/Mukh rather than Vlasic, Rutta etc... Benning is very fine as 3rd pair RD. That would at least bring some competitive edge to that defence, it's still far from good but it's still better for the rookies.

Why would we want a career 20 point defensemen running the power play? That's almost as bad as asking vlasic to do it.

 

[CanadienShark]

I don't understand why doesn't MG just sign a player like Justin Schultz to one year 3-4 mil deal to run the powerplay and take another RD spot? It would be better to have more NHL veterans in this team, and even better on that right side to help out upcoming LD's Mukh and Thrun.
We would have a top 4 of Walman, Ceci, Schultz and Ferraro/Thrun/Mukh rather than Vlasic, Rutta etc... Benning is very fine as 3rd pair RD. That would at least bring some competitive edge to that defence, it's still far from good but it's still better for the rookies.

Why would we pay Schultz 3-4x his worth?

 

[mogambomoroo]

Why would we want a career 20 point defensemen running the power play? That's almost as bad as asking vlasic to do it.

He has two Stanley Cups, has experience with PP and is a Right Handed D (big need).
He is a career 25-point defencemen, with one season w/ 51 points.

Don't get me wrong I'm not saying that he's going to change the course at all, but he'll help the competition for defensive spots not being handed automatically to likes of Vlasic/Rutta.

Edit: It's part of gradually trying to make that defence respectable. We need to try things out until we find those defencemen that can carry the real weight. (#1-#2 defencemen) MG has addressed that with Walman and Ceci to some extent, but I feel like that right side is so far from ready that any kind of help is a positive.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I don't understand why doesn't MG just sign a player like Justin Schultz to one year 3-4 mil deal to run the powerplay and take another RD spot? It would be better to have more NHL veterans in this team, and even better on that right side to help out upcoming LD's Mukh and Thrun.
We would have a top 4 of Walman, Ceci, Schultz and Ferraro/Thrun/Mukh rather than Vlasic, Rutta etc... Benning is very fine as 3rd pair RD. That would at least bring some competitive edge to that defence, it's still far from good but it's still better for the rookies.

If we were to do something like that, I'd rather they take a flier on Tyson Barrie.

 

[tiburon12]

I think the concept of getting a PP1 qb like Barrie is fine, but not if it undermines Grier's plan. Maybe he just wants to see what he has in certain players in another winning-ins't-the-goal season.

 

[matt trick]

That's such a great contract for Seattle. I was hoping we would be able to land Larsson on something similar to the Toffoli deal but there goes that dream.

Unless we're offered a 1st for Ceci I would just extend him at the deadline. Even if we're lucky enough to land someone like Dobson, Ekblad or Theodore to be our 1RD next summer the rest of our RD depth chart would be Matt Benning and a bunch of question marks.

I kind of have him in the same boat as Granlund. If he's having a legit solid season, is fitting in well with the kids and the room, and is interested in sticking around past this season, then I would think about just keeping him unless he returns a 1st.

Wonder if any of Dickinson, Muk, or Ferraro can play right side. If not, Ceci on a 2 year deal probably isn't the worst idea in the world. If your RHD is UFA, Benning, Pohlkamp and the available UFAs are Theodore, Ekblad, Ceci, and Savard…that’s pretty rough to guarantee a chance of improving the D. Which goes to the point of maybe you keep Ceci. Also, I agree this gives us a good chance to take someone over the coals for Ceci. I wonder if the bidding might start at St. Louis’ 2nd from Edmonton, which ain’t bad!

 

[Hodge]

How about trading Bordeleau for Nick Robertson? He could be a fit with Smith and Kunin on a sheltered third line or we could even play him in the top six to pump his trade value.