I am agreeing that this team is much better
They're still not going to improve by 13 wins
I think we hover around 25 wins and 55 points, a massive jump from last year, still well below the betting lines some posters have wasted their money on
2026 is when I look for a real jump, once the kids have had a taste and taken their lumps and are starting to understand what it really takes to win games in this league
The big unknown here really is Warsofsky, he could be a revelation, he could also be a dud
Dallas Eakins is an incredible AHL coach, he was dog shit in the NHL, we don't know if Warsofsky is like Eakins or like Jon Cooper or Jared Bednar, he could also be mid as hell like Sheldon Keefe, AHL success is not indicative of NHL success, even if it is encouraging
My guess, like yours, is as good as any. Saying they will be better, but still in the bottom 2 is a very reasonable guess. I also agree with you that the D is dog poop. They still have no real top pairing Dman, and only mediocre second pairing guys as their top line. It's weak. The forwards are also still weak. The Lund line is pretty solid and it's fair to expect improvement from Eklund and Zetterlund (with Grandlund staying rather constant as he's not that old.) Toffoli is a proven 25-30 goal scorer, and I expect similar. The big question is the kids as well as the rest of the depth forwards. The coach, as you said, is also a big question mark and Askarov may be too.
Tons of question marks and if you are right, I guess I'm out $340...
However, its those question marks that make me think bottom 3 is too low. I also feel that even last years exact roster would be better this year if nothing else than development by the existing kids (thrun, eklund, zetterlund...). However, this years roster is upgraded at every position.
Lund lund + year of development > Lund line last year
Toffoli = hertl (toffoli may be better when considering his cup experience, excitement to be here, and health)
Celebrini >>> Hoffman
Smith > Labanc
Wennberg = Duclair (Duclair gives more O, Wennberg better on D)
Dylandrea, Grundstrom, Goodrow > Barabonov, Zadina, Carpenter, Etc.
Injury callups this year > Injury call ups last year (the cuda are much deeper, and even guys like Bailey, Bordy, Gush, etc are better than Studnicka or whoever).
Basically at least 1/2 of the forward positions are upgraded, and I would argue no downgrades. How upgraded will depend on the kids, but its upgraded nevertheless, and they can withstand injuries better too (assumes no cooch).
D:
Ceci >Ohtiuk
Walman > Borroughs
Benning > Emberson
Thrun this year > Thrun next year (most likely)
and of course Mukh remains a wild card too.
Again at least 1/2 the D is upgraded.
Warsofsky > Quinn... ive never seen players throw a coach so under the bus as barabanov and even a current player, sturm, did. Sounds truly amazing...
All of this assumes no upside surprises either like Musty coming on to the scene, Thompson, cardwell, gush, Haltunnen, Bystedt, or bordy making a big leap, any of which is a very distinct possibility. It also assumed that Smith and celly have moderate 40-50 pt seasons, and neither really takes the league by storm, which of course, could happen.
If all goes poorly, we will be somewhat improved from last year and be in the upper 50's in points. I lose $340.
If all goes pretty well, we will be in the 70-80 pt range which puts up in the bottom 10 but not bottom 5. I win $60.
If all goes VERY well, we pull off a vegas expansion style season, since we are kinda an expansion team- like nearly a whole new roster, with all new players, a new coach, and all. 109 pts and a stanley cup final appearance. If that happens, I make a nice $10,500.