Speculation: 2023-24-25 Sharks Roster Discussion

[Star Platinum]

Holy moly man. the only one of these I think is totally reasonable is the over on 63.5pts, that's definitely possible. The rest... Woof.

 

[gaucholoco3]

I got my $20 on sharks 250-1 to win the west, $20 at 200-1 to take the pacific, $100 at 13-1 to make playoffs, and $200 over 63.5 pts, so I’ll put my money where my mouth is. The sharks will be a whole lot better than expected…

People blasting sampler don’t understand betting and odds. For the bet to make the playoffs 13-1 implies a 7% chance of making the playoffs. I personally think the Sharks have closer to a 10% chance of making the playoffs. So I would consider that a good bet. Just because a bet doesn’t win doesn’t mean it was a bad bet.

I personally also like most of these bets and will probably throw a small amount of money on them as the season gets closer to starting.

With such huge roster turnover and the majority of players coming in are first round pick talent and improvement from what they lost and a new coach who has a history of success everywhere he goes, I think this team has a very wide bell curve of potential outcomes which would make these bets good bets. I would consider simultaneously betting on these bets and also bets for Sharks to finish last if the odds are good.

 

[weastern bias]

I understand the odds, the Sharks have a 0% chance of making the playoffs, you have a 100% chance of losing that bet

 

[coooldude]

People blasting sampler don’t understand betting and odds. For the bet to make the playoffs 13-1 implies a 7% chance of making the playoffs. I personally think the Sharks have closer to a 10% chance of making the playoffs. So I would consider that a good bet. Just because a bet doesn’t win doesn’t mean it was a bad bet.

I personally also like most of these bets and will probably throw a small amount of money on them as the season gets closer to starting.

With such huge roster turnover and the majority of players coming in are first round pick talent and improvement from what they lost and a new coach who has a history of success everywhere he goes, I think this team has a very wide bell curve of potential outcomes which would make these bets good bets. I would consider simultaneously betting on these bets and also bets for Sharks to finish last if the odds are good.

I think this is kind of condescending... you think we don't understand betting and odds because we disagree with his assessment of the odds? Simply put, I disagree with his assessment of the odds, and I think the market is more likely to be accurately priced than inaccurately priced. Beyond that, there's a reason that there aren't a lot of people who make a living gambling professionally, and why there are hotlines.

In theory, there's odds arbitrage, there are mispricings, people win big bets, etc etc., but overall it's not really a great way to apply your statistical or financial brains. Same thing can be said about day trading also -- doesn't mean I don't understand corporate finance and the stock market if I think day trading is silly.

 

[hohosaregood]

Nah we're getting the cup this year to start off Celebrini and Smith's legendary HOF careers.

 

[sampler]

I think this is kind of condescending... you think we don't understand betting and odds because we disagree with his assessment of the odds? Simply put, I disagree with his assessment of the odds, and I think the market is more likely to be accurately priced than inaccurately priced. Beyond that, there's a reason that there aren't a lot of people who make a living gambling professionally, and why there are hotlines.

In theory, there's odds arbitrage, there are mispricings, people win big bets, etc etc., but overall it's not really a great way to apply your statistical or financial brains. Same thing can be said about day trading also -- doesn't mean I don't understand corporate finance and the stock market if I think day trading is silly.

Let me clarify a few things:

1. $340 is not that much money (at least for me). It’s not an irresponsible bet for my financial situation. So don’t worry, it’s money im very ready to lose (and likely will, on at least 3 of the 4 bets.)

2. 12 new players, whole new coach… all 12 players likely upgrades. This team is a wild card. It’s almost like an expansion team. What were the odds on Vegas their first year?

3. Long shots are just that: long shots. They are likely to lose. I am fully aware. But 200-1 to win an 8 team division is pretty impressively long odds. Furthermore statistics always talk about reversion to the mean. Last year was a very unique deviation from the mean on the negative side. I think last years failures were uniquely bad. So I disagree with the bookmakers.

I am not arrogant to believe I am smarter than the market. I’m not. I’m likely wrong. But, that doesn’t mean that I should disregard my own private signal that this team is better than the rest of the hockey world thinks.

Besides, if you are gunna make a bold prediction, you gotta put your money where your mouth is!

 

[weastern bias]

I feel compelled to post the links again

Remember kids, gambling addiction is real and it tears families apart

 

[Star Platinum]

People blasting sampler don’t understand betting and odds.

I understand betting and odds perfectly fine. I also understand condescension real well.

 

[jMoneyBrah]

Let me clarify a few things:

1. $340 is not that much money (at least for me). It’s not an irresponsible bet for my financial situation. So don’t worry, it’s money im very ready to lose (and likely will, on at least 3 of the 4 bets.)

2. 12 new players, whole new coach… all 12 players likely upgrades. This team is a wild card. It’s almost like an expansion team. What were the odds on Vegas their first year?

3. Long shots are just that: long shots. They are likely to lose. I am fully aware. But 200-1 to win an 8 team division is pretty impressively long odds. Furthermore statistics always talk about reversion to the mean. Last year was a very unique deviation from the mean on the negative side. I think last years failures were uniquely bad. So I disagree with the bookmakers.

I am not arrogant to believe I am smarter than the market. I’m not. I’m likely wrong. But, that doesn’t mean that I should disregard my own private signal that this team is better than the rest of the hockey world thinks.

Besides, if you are gunna make a bold prediction, you gotta put your money where your mouth is!

Hey my dude, you do you. For $340 I think you’ve got your head screwed on straight and are well aware of what you’re doing. For all the irresponsible gambling talk, home slice here doesn’t appear to be putting his mortgage payment on the line.

While I don’t partake in gambling (unless I find myself in Vegas or Reno; then I’ll hit the craps table), and, like, I’d appreciate if our top sporting leagues weren’t quite as in bed with the gambling industry as they currently are; it’s fair to recognize that plenty of people are able to gamble in a fashion that brings them entertainment without destroying their lives or families.

 

[OrrNumber4]

I understand betting and odds perfectly fine. I also understand condescension real well.

*Really* well

 

[STL Shark]

It's interesting that Musty is in the Bay already in early September. He must be really gunning for a spot on the Sharks, no?

Seem to recall he also changed his offseason training location to Toronto to work his tail off to make the NHL squad. I know some like to label him one dimensional offensive winger, but I can't say that I've been more impressed with a guy that put up a bunch of points and his work ethic to improve overall than Musty. Think he's going to do whatever it takes to make the NHL and be a good player and I'm glad he wasn't part of the Askarov trade.

 

[landshark]

I feel compelled to post the links again

Remember kids, gambling addiction is real and it tears families apart

Faith-based currency also tears families apart. It is fuel for wars, because rich people need more and more of it. It literally gets people killed on a daily basis...

Are you selling the only thing you can't buy more of for some virtual number in your bank account that doesn't get you nearly the number of hamburgers it used to so some rich asshole can get even richer?

 

[Celly4Celebrini]

Let me clarify a few things:

1. $340 is not that much money (at least for me). It’s not an irresponsible bet for my financial situation. So don’t worry, it’s money im very ready to lose (and likely will, on at least 3 of the 4 bets.)

2. 12 new players, whole new coach… all 12 players likely upgrades. This team is a wild card. It’s almost like an expansion team. What were the odds on Vegas their first year?

3. Long shots are just that: long shots. They are likely to lose. I am fully aware. But 200-1 to win an 8 team division is pretty impressively long odds. Furthermore statistics always talk about reversion to the mean. Last year was a very unique deviation from the mean on the negative side. I think last years failures were uniquely bad. So I disagree with the bookmakers.

I am not arrogant to believe I am smarter than the market. I’m not. I’m likely wrong. But, that doesn’t mean that I should disregard my own private signal that this team is better than the rest of the hockey world thinks.

Besides, if you are gunna make a bold prediction, you gotta put your money where your mouth is!

and assuming -110 odds, the over 63.5 points likely covers the other 3 bets with some mild profit.

 

[weastern bias]

and assuming -110 odds, the over 63.5 points likely covers the other 3 bets with some mild profit.

Until it loses

 

[weastern bias]

Faith-based currency also tears families apart. It is fuel for wars, because rich people need more and more of it. It literally gets people killed on a daily basis...

Are you selling the only thing you can't buy more of for some virtual number in your bank account that doesn't get you nearly the number of hamburgers it used to so some rich asshole can get even richer?

Finally, a level-headed take

No sarcasm

 

[tahoesharksfan]

I used to have a problem with gambling so I had to call Gamblers Anonymous.
I offered them 6-2 that they couldn't cure me...

 

[tahoesharksfan]

$200 over 63.5 pts

Up here (via Ceasars) I took the over but at 64.5....which means they'll end up with exactly 64 points....

 

[gaucholoco3]

I think this is kind of condescending... you think we don't understand betting and odds because we disagree with his assessment of the odds? Simply put, I disagree with his assessment of the odds, and I think the market is more likely to be accurately priced than inaccurately priced. Beyond that, there's a reason that there aren't a lot of people who make a living gambling professionally, and why there are hotlines.

I understand betting and odds perfectly fine. I also understand condescension real well.

Yes I admit I was being condescending but so are those who call someone a gambling addict just because they don’t agree with the odds of those bets. Regardless it doesn’t matter.

I think there is no way to know with any certainty how good or bad this team will be. There are 3 returning top 6 forwards and only 5 total returning forwards. Virtually every forward replaced is an upgrade. There are only 3 returning top 6 D from last year (Benning barely played, and Vlassic in the press box) and again every D was replaced with a better player than they lost. They replaced Tanko with a better goalie and have an unknown potential star in Askarov. They have a new coach when it has been widely reported the previous coach had horrible systems.

All this is to say that the Sharks might still be bad but to say the Sharks can’t be good just because they had such a bad year last year is missing how drastically different this team is than last year. It is almost impossible to be confident on where this team finishes.

 

[weastern bias]

I was bang on about last year's team and I feel perfectly comfortable with my assessment of this year's team

I was shouting from the mountaintop last year that we were going to be historically bad, what happened?

This year we are going to be better, better still means we are going to be in the basement, we'll be one of the worst teams in the league but look much more like an NHL team than the trash we iced last year

 

[landshark]

Finally, a level-headed take

No sarcasm

I stuck the sarcasm on there since I don't have a better idea.

 

[Lebanezer]

I used to have a problem with gambling so I had to call Gamblers Anonymous.
I offered them 6-2 that they couldn't cure me...

That can't be the end of the story. What did they counter with?

 

[Barrie22]

I was bang on about last year's team and I feel perfectly comfortable with my assessment of this year's team

I was shouting from the mountaintop last year that we were going to be historically bad, what happened?

This year we are going to be better, better still means we are going to be in the basement, we'll be one of the worst teams in the league but look much more like an NHL team than the trash we iced last year

Being the worst team in the league, just not at a historically bad worst team in the league level means this team is a 65 point team. 9 win difference

 

[weastern bias]

Being the worst team in the league, just not at a historically bad worst team in the league level means this team is a 65 point team. 9 win difference

There were two other teams besides the Sharks who finished with less than 60 points last year and the Blue Jackets who had 66 just had their leading scorer die tragically and will likely be worse next year

In 2023 4 teams finished with 60 or fewer points

In 2022 3 teams finished with 60 or fewer points

In every 82 game season post-Covid there have been multiple teams finishing with sub-60 point seasons, bottom dwellers quite commonly have less than 65 points these days, 47 was a historical outlier but that doesn't mean we're making a 14 point jump in the standings because we drafted a couple of awesome teenagers

 

[Pinkfloyd]

There were two other teams besides the Sharks who finished with less than 60 points last year and the Blue Jackets who had 66 just had their leading scorer die tragically and will likely be worse next year

In 2023 4 teams finished with 60 or fewer points

In 2022 3 teams finished with 60 or fewer points

In every 82 game season post-Covid there have been multiple teams finishing with sub-60 point seasons, bottom dwellers quite commonly have less than 65 points these days, 47 was a historical outlier but that doesn't mean we're making a 14 point jump in the standings because we drafted a couple of awesome teenagers

We did more than draft a couple awesome teenagers though. Losing guys like Hoffman, Labanc, and Burroughs for real NHL'ers like Toffoli, Wennberg, and Ceci along with getting rid of guys like Zadina and Addison for guys like Grundstrom and Walman is going to make them better. I don't think a 20 point improvement is unrealistic when there was a lot of room for improvement and going from guys that were absolutely addition by subtraction to guys that are maybe just net-zero. I don't think we're playoff caliber by a mile but they got a lot more NHL caliber players on their roster than last year.

 

[ChompChomp]

There were two other teams besides the Sharks who finished with less than 60 points last year and the Blue Jackets who had 66 just had their leading scorer die tragically and will likely be worse next year

In 2023 4 teams finished with 60 or fewer points

In 2022 3 teams finished with 60 or fewer points

In every 82 game season post-Covid there have been multiple teams finishing with sub-60 point seasons, bottom dwellers quite commonly have less than 65 points these days, 47 was a historical outlier but that doesn't mean we're making a 14 point jump in the standings because we drafted a couple of awesome teenagers

I think the one thing you are not factoring in is that last year's team was decimated with injuries. If the team had a full year of Couture and Hertl, they wouldn't have been a 47 point team. If they simply win 5 more games, they would have been a 57 point team.

And can they go from what they should have got last year (57ish) to 61? Sure, easily.