Speculation: 2023-24-25 Sharks Roster Discussion

Barrie22

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Which isn't the point whatsoever being discussed. The point was that since fans think "Goodrow is bad so why would any player respect his mentorship because he's not good" is a stupid line of thinking because the bulk of NHL players are not going to think he's bad. Whether they're right or the fans are right is not really the purpose of the discussion at hand. It's that he's going to be a good guy in the room to teach traits and habits to the young guys.

What a lot of the naysayers are missing is that it doesn't even have to be his own skills that are being taught. Imagine he's able to have a conversation with Smith or Celebrini about "When I was in Tampa, I'd notice Stammer/Kucherov practice this move in this particular way" and then they instantly have credibility in trying that because he's been around two of the best forwards in the modern history of the sport for a good amount of time and through a couple of Stanley Cups.
And this is also why some of the best captains weren't top line players and more so the grinding type. More so older hockey, now it is the most skilled.

And mentorship doesn't really have to do with the on ice play, more so about all the extra stuff that comes with being a professional athlete.
 
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Hodge

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Just curious. How many scouts (pro/amature), coaches, GMs, hell even Agents are ex-players? Just not sure who would be a better evaluator of talent then someone with it. 🤷‍♂️
Clearly the best evaluators of talent are guys who never played the game like Kyle Dubas and Doug Jr.
 

STL Shark

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IDK if it's just bias but Celebrini does feel kinda underrated. Seems like a lot of people still project that he'll be just an above average 1C. But he's got some of that cheat code factor that separates the franchise level guys from the rest like MacKinnon's acceleration, Crosby's puck protection or Stone's takeaways. I just have a hard time articulating it for Celebrini, it's like he's got a next level awareness of his body and knows exactly how to maximize it.
I think he's adequately rated. There is a tier of elite 1C types that will hang around for a decade. The McDavid, Mackinnon, Draisatl, Crosby, and Matthews group is still the top 5 centers in the league. There's a pretty significant drop off to the next tier, even though that tier is really freaking good still.

I don't think Celebrini is ever going to be the top of the top center in the league just because those guys put up more gaudy point totals than I think Macklin will put up. That said, I think Celebrini will be a more winning overall player with a combination of great (but not elite) scoring totals coupled with a more complete game (i.e. less empty calorie points). Maybe a Brayden Point or last few years version of Crosby where he's a fringe Selke candidate while still putting up 90-95 points.
 

gaucholoco3

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I think he's adequately rated. There is a tier of elite 1C types that will hang around for a decade. The McDavid, Mackinnon, Draisatl, Crosby, and Matthews group is still the top 5 centers in the league. There's a pretty significant drop off to the next tier, even though that tier is really freaking good still.

I don't think Celebrini is ever going to be the top of the top center in the league just because those guys put up more gaudy point totals than I think Macklin will put up. That said, I think Celebrini will be a more winning overall player with a combination of great (but not elite) scoring totals coupled with a more complete game (i.e. less empty calorie points). Maybe a Brayden Point or last few years version of Crosby where he's a fringe Selke candidate while still putting up 90-95 points.
What about Barkov and Bergeron tier? Or is Celebrini’s size going to prevent him from winning Selke’s.

I see Celebrini as a better scoring Barkov or Bergeron.
 

Hodge

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How did Bill Zito do? It's not so cut and dry.
Zito played college hockey at Yale and was an agent and front office exec for decades before becoming a GM.

Kyle Davidson, Dubas, Tulsky, DWJr...these guys have never even remotely been high level athletes at any point in their lives.
 

STL Shark

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What about Barkov and Bergeron tier? Or is Celebrini’s size going to prevent him from winning Selke’s.

I see Celebrini as a better scoring Barkov or Bergeron.
Probably a fair tier, but I don't think he's going to be as much of a true shutdown option as those guys. Like Toews was a very solid 2 way player that only won 1 Selke in his career. I think that's more the caliber of Celebrini defensively as opposed to a true flat out stopper like Bergeron was during his career (and Barkov now to a lesser extent, though still very good).

Barkov would probably be a good comparison in terms of offensive output coupled with defense, though I don't expect the accolades defensively to rack up in terms of multiple Selke's in the San Jose market. The type of winning player you need when it gets tighter late in the season rather than the guy that is going to put up 120 points and lose in the 1st or 2nd round each year.
 

Pinkfloyd

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Zito played college hockey at Yale and was an agent and front office exec for decades before becoming a GM.

Kyle Davidson, Dubas, Tulsky, DWJr...these guys have never even remotely been high level athletes at any point in their lives.
Zito played a whole 37 games at Yale in the 80's. He never played one professional game. DWJr played college hockey as well. Granted, it was a lower league but the experience difference is negligible for the purposes of getting involved in management and being able to evaluate talent. Gretzky is the greatest hockey player to ever play and was dog shit at evaluating talent.
 
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Hodge

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Zito played a whole 37 games at Yale in the 80's. He never played one professional game. DWJr played college hockey as well. Granted, it was a lower league but the experience difference is negligible for the purposes of getting involved in management and being able to evaluate talent. Gretzky is the greatest hockey player to ever play and was dog shit at evaluating talent.
Not every NHL player is destined to be a great scout or manager but I would rather have someone who played in the league and knows firsthand what makes a team successful on and off the ice running my franchise than someone who doesn't have that experience.
 

Pinkfloyd

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Not every NHL player is destined to be a great scout or manager but I would rather have someone who played in the league and knows firsthand what makes a team successful on and off the ice running my franchise than someone who doesn't have that experience.
But as has been proven multiple times, it's not a requirement. There's more to evaluating talent than the experience of playing the game.
 
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Cas

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In their stated public opinion, or in their opinion in general? Do you have faith in an athlete's opinion in self-evaluation and driving their development, or are you saying the athletes are meat and the coaches and developmental staff are the brains? Does this apply universally to all athletes in every sport or is there a spectrum on which athletes land in terms of self or other evaluation? It's a pretty hot take you're taking so I'm interested to learn where it's coming from.
It's difficult to evaluate anything aside from stated public opinion, unless they have a managerial track record (the problem there being that you are then evaluating only a pool of selected and self-selected managers/coaches/etc). In general, I do not have a high opinion of professional athletes publicly stated opinions on value evaluations for their chosen sport - I don't think they, as a class, are any better than the average fan of that sport at judging the value of players in their sport.

There are of course athletes who are actually good at judging value, and some that are particularly bad. Being able to skate or run or throw or swing a stick that is shaped a certain way at a projectile shaped another way doesn't really speak to your ability to spot what is actually important about that sport and evaluate that dispassionately among your peers. That, however, doesn't necessarily apply to being able to evaluate who can skate/run/throw well - the actual physical skills of said sport.

I don't necessarily have faith in an athlete's self-evaluation, either - certainly I don't apply any real importance to their ability to self-evaluate simply because they are a professional athlete.

Basically, I would summarize my thoughts as "I don't put any faith in someone's opinion about a sport just because they played that sport at a high level."
 
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coooldude

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It's difficult to evaluate anything aside from stated public opinion, unless they have a managerial track record (the problem there being that you are then evaluating only a pool of selected and self-selected managers/coaches/etc). In general, I do not have a high opinion of professional athletes publicly stated opinions on value evaluations for their chosen sport - I don't think they, as a class, are any better than the average fan of that sport at judging the value of players in their sport.

There are of course athletes who are actually good at judging value, and some that are particularly bad. Being able to skate or run or throw or swing a stick that is shaped a certain way at a projectile shaped another way doesn't really speak to your ability to spot what is actually important about that sport and evaluate that dispassionately among your peers. That, however, doesn't necessarily apply to being able to evaluate who can skate/run/throw well - the actual physical skills of said sport.

I don't necessarily have faith in an athlete's self-evaluation, either - certainly I don't apply any real importance to their ability to self-evaluate simply because they are a professional athlete.

Basically, I would summarize my thoughts as "I don't put any faith in someone's opinion about a sport just because they played that sport at a high level."
It's a really interesting and unique take and I won't fault you for that. I think it's fair to question most of what is publicly shared by anyone, unless that person has consistently spoken in a way that turns out to be pretty accurate and direct. For example, Grier has shown himself to not really mince words, so when he says something, I think it's worthwhile to take it at face value, That's a little beside the point but it could also apply to players (players of the past like Boyle match up to this, self-evaluation or team evaluation was actually very insightful and interesting to listen to).

If you're talking about value as in contract value, I think that's a fine position to hold. Players aren't meant to be experts in the business side, cap implications, market value, etc. etc.

I however would disagree with you that a player playing on a team is universally "no better than the average fan" at judging player value during play. Even mediocre professionals understand their sport far better than the vast majority of fans, including their particular role, the details around skills, and the details around systems. I believe this, but it sounds like you don't believe it. For the players we're talking about to make it to the NHL means they absolutely must be able to do more than just "skate, swing a stick a certain way, etc" because there are 10x as many players who were basically as skilled as them that weren't able to make it. This is especially true of players like e.g. Pavs or Dellandrea or others who are completely replaceable from a skills/physical standpoint but have nonetheless carved themselves out roles in professional settings.

The same is true and I think very well established that in order to succeed as a professional, you really do need to have a growth mindset and an ability to adapt your game. Players like Sturm were all-stars their whole lives and have to learn how to carve out a role playing very differently than they did for most of their hockey career. That takes a lot of growth/learning mindset, self-evaluation, and the ability to be coached by others. These are not easy skills.

I'm not going to convince you though, and that's fine. I generally do put more faith in someone's opinion about a sport just because they played that sport at a high level. It doesn't mean I think they're always right, but I consider their position and points and POV more strongly than an average fan who may not have ever been successful even at a high school level. Being a successful athlete is far, far more than just being athletic.
 

OrrNumber4

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I still think it is funny/interesting how a year later, out of all the young "available" players New Jersey had at the time, Zetterlund's value has improved massively compared to everyone else. Even Nemec's stock has massively come down...it will be interesting to see if he, Mercer, and Holtz can bounce back in 2025.
 
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Hodge

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I still think it is funny/interesting how a year later, out of all the young "available" players New Jersey had at the time, Zetterlund now has a strong case for having been the best choice. Even Nemec's stock has massively come down...it will be interesting to see if he, Mercer, and Holtz can bounce back in 2025.
I'll never forget how many Sharks fans were angry at Grier for getting Mukhamadullin instead of Holtz.

Not sure Nemec or Mercer were ever on the table but either one would have probably been the entire return if they had.

I would honestly rather have Zetterlund, Mukhamadullin, Musty and the assets to trade up for Sam Dickinson instead of Mercer or Nemec alone.
 

STL Shark

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I still think it is funny/interesting how a year later, out of all the young "available" players New Jersey had at the time, Zetterlund now has a strong case for having been the best choice. Even Nemec's stock has massively come down...it will be interesting to see if he, Mercer, and Holtz can bounce back in 2025.
Mercer is still better. Zetterlund just got deployed way more often than Mercer this year because the Sharks had nobody else. ES points per 60 wise, Mercer was at 1.5 this year in a down year while Zetterlund was at 1.3. Nemec is also a 20 year old RHD that played 20 mins a night as a positive expected goals player as well. Think it is a pretty clear Nemec, Mercer, Zetterlund/Holtz order (which is what they were rated at the time of the trade).

Holtz was the best ES scorer of the bunch, but brings very little else to the table. Zetterlund benefited from way more PP time than he should ever see again in his career which inflated his goal and point totals a lot. Ideally Zetterlund is a 3rd liner on a good team, but got deployed like a 1st line RW this season.

Curious how Grier evaluates and values Zetterlund leading up to the deadline this year. If his contract asks are in line with his raw point totals rather than adjusted for over usage, he'd be a prime trade candidate to bring back a nice haul of assets. If he's okay with something like 4 years at $4M per year, keep him around. If he's looking for more than that, take the haul of picks and let's get weird in the 1st round again this coming year (or trade a pick at the draft when they will get you more).
 

gaucholoco3

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I still think it is funny/interesting how a year later, out of all the young "available" players New Jersey had at the time, Zetterlund now has a strong case for having been the best choice. Even Nemec's stock has massively come down...it will be interesting to see if he, Mercer, and Holtz can bounce back in 2025.
While I agree that Zetterlund might be the best option of those players, I think we as Sharks fans overrate how good Zetterlund is. He is not a top 6 forward on a good team. Hopefully they can flip him to a team that thinks he is or the incoming prospects can push him down to the 3rd line when they start to compete.
 
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OrrNumber4

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Mercer is still better. Zetterlund just got deployed way more often than Mercer this year because the Sharks had nobody else. ES points per 60 wise, Mercer was at 1.5 this year in a down year while Zetterlund was at 1.3. Nemec is also a 20 year old RHD that played 20 mins a night as a positive expected goals player as well. Think it is a pretty clear Nemec, Mercer, Zetterlund/Holtz order (which is what they were rated at the time of the trade).

Holtz was the best ES scorer of the bunch, but brings very little else to the table. Zetterlund benefited from way more PP time than he should ever see again in his career which inflated his goal and point totals a lot. Ideally Zetterlund is a 3rd liner on a good team, but got deployed like a 1st line RW this season.

Curious how Grier evaluates and values Zetterlund leading up to the deadline this year. If his contract asks are in line with his raw point totals rather than adjusted for over usage, he'd be a prime trade candidate to bring back a nice haul of assets. If he's okay with something like 4 years at $4M per year, keep him around. If he's looking for more than that, take the haul of picks and let's get weird in the 1st round again this coming year (or trade a pick at the draft when they will get you more).
While it is true that Zetterlund gets more ice time, Mercer and Nemec play with much better players and easier competition.

Of course, Mercer and Nemec are better prospects, and one-for-one I'd take them over Zetterlund, but I wouldn't consider either prospect blue-chip. The gap has been significantly narrowed, and it's clear that the Sharks bought low on Zetterlund instead of buying very high on Nemec/Mercer.
 

Hodge

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We can't afford to lose Zetterlund's speed. He's one of the fastest players in the league and it's hard to find a replacement who's capable of playing middle six minutes. None of our forward prospects outside of Celebrini are burners either and even he isn't exactly McDavid.
 
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Pavelski2112

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I'll never forget how many Sharks fans were angry at Grier for getting Mukhamadullin instead of Holtz.

Not sure Nemec or Mercer were ever on the table but either one would have probably been the entire return if they had.

I would honestly rather have Zetterlund, Mukhamadullin, Musty and the assets to trade up for Sam Dickinson instead of Mercer or Nemec alone.
Grier absolutely hit a home run with that trade, and it keeps looking better as time goes on
 

Hodge

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I'll also add that the Devils probably wouldn't have signed Pesce to that huge contract with Dougie Hamilton already on the books if they were sold on Nemec becoming a top pair guy in the near future.
 

STL Shark

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I'll also add that the Devils probably wouldn't have signed Pesce to that huge contract with Dougie Hamilton already on the books if they were sold on Nemec becoming a top pair guy in the near future.
Not really. That was seeing a chance to upgrade Marino to Pesce and a pair of 2nd round picks rather than having much of anything to do with Nemec.
 

Cas

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With Coe resigned, we only have Bordeleau and Thrun as RFAs without contracts.

We have 48 players under contract, with six players slide-eligible (Celebrini, Smith, Musty, Edstrom, Halttunen, Dickinson). Bordeleau and Thrun bring us to 50. I expect the last four above will slide, giving us room for four more (barring trades).

Grier has said he's looking for an experienced third goaltender.

I also suspect we'll be moving one or more of our depth defensemen for a forward - possibly a prospect-for-prospect trade, maybe a deal to try and open an NHL spot for Mukhamadullin.

We have 27 players on our reserve list. Chernyshov is the only one I think might get a contract this summer. Alex Young comes off the list in a month (he looked like he might have some promise in Colgate, but collapsed at Arizona State; its off to the ECHL for him).
 

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