Speculation: 2023-24-25 Sharks Roster Discussion

[Jargon]

Some of these arguments seem like they take a needless amount of time. I think every single one of us would waive Kostin if Musty wins his roster spot, what are we even discussing?

 

[Alaskanice]

Some of these arguments seem like they take a needless amount of time. I think every single one of us would waive Kostin if Musty wins his roster spot, what are we even discussing?

For the sake of pointless discussion, I would waive Bailey before Kostin.

 

[TheBeard]

One of these things is not like the others. Kunin would have a lineup spot on every team in the league. Kostin and Bailey will be lucky to avoid getting waived by one of the worst teams in recent history. If the latter two aren't scoring they're not doing anything to help you win and they don't score above a 4th line level to begin with.

Dunno if I agree completely. Bailey yes. but I do think Kostin provided a lot of the same physicality that Kunin did and seemed to be a more potent offensive threat even if it was in limited time.

 

[LadyStanley]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1810372957237293203

 

[TheBeard]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1810372957237293203

It's crazy how in a year some guys who played top line/top PP minutes are already on the roster bubble.

 

[Cas]

For the sake of pointless discussion, I would waive Bailey before Kostin.

Bailey was originally brought in for the Barracuda anyway, and that's almost certainly his anticipated spot next year. He got a nice boost in AHL salary with his new contract ($375k from $300k), and a good guaranteed minumum ($450k).

Basically, it's all but a guarantee Bailey is waived.

 

[Hodge]

Kunin plays the Lomberg role on the Panthers, the 14th forward who draws in for situational matchups when the team needs a player who plays hard but has no hands or IQ

Kunin is probably a 3rd liner on the Panthers as things stand today. The only forwards they have signed who are clearly better than him are Barkov, Tkachuk, Reinhart, Verhaeghe, Bennett, Lundell, Rodrigues and Luostarinen. That honestly wouldn't be a bad landing spot for him at the deadline.

 

[weastern bias]

Kunin is probably a 3rd liner on the Panthers as things stand today. The only forwards they have signed who are clearly better than him are Barkov, Tkachuk, Reinhart, Verhaeghe, Bennett, Lundell, Rodrigues and Luostarinen. That honestly wouldn't be a bad landing spot for him at the deadline.

After their salary cap apocalypse that may be the case right now, which is why they had to win this year, but all that means is this Panthers team is not the same kind of obvious cup favorite that last year's was, if they were Kunin wouldn't crack the top 12

 

[Hodge]

After their salary cap apocalypse that may be the case right now, which is why they had to win this year, but all that means is this Panthers team is not the same kind of obvious cup favorite that last year's was, if they were Kunin wouldn't crack the top 12

There isn't a single team in the league with 12 forwards who are superior to Kunin. The only one that's even debatable is Edmonton depending on your opinion of 2024 Corey Perry and Connor Brown.

 

[weastern bias]

There isn't a single team in the league with 12 forwards who are superior to Kunin. The only one that's even debatable is Edmonton depending on your opinion of 2024 Corey Perry and Connor Brown.

Corey Perry is a similar level of extra skater/spot starter, the difference is he brings vet leadership and MVP experience that teams value (perhaps overvalue, but they value it)

Connor Brown is a good penalty killer, while Luke Kunin is terrible at it, I think they both bring things that Kunin can't

 

[Cas]

Kunin is so good that he took a one year, below-QO contract from one of the very worst teams in the last two decades after they gave him an "A."

The implication there is that Grier told Kunin that he either takes the below-QO deal or he gets to try and find another deal on the market (where he probably winds up getting paid $850,000 for one year, something like that). His value on the market isn't high.

 

[Hodge]

One thing that never gets brought up during the weekly Kunin hate fests is that sports medicine professionals are increasingly of the opinion that it takes 18 months to 2 years for athletes to fully recover from ACL surgery and return to their previous level of performance.

We should see a version of Kunin this season much more in line with the player who averaged 17 goals per 82 games over the three seasons prior to his injury. He was taken 15th overall for a reason. There's a legit 15+15 power winger in there which every team would love to have in their middle six.

 

[weastern bias]

We're gonna talk up a player with 30 point upside who provides nothing but forechecking energy but it's a waste to play Smith with Wennberg who scores 30+ points almost every year while providing upper-echelon defense?

Kunin doesn't even get stats and still manages to be an empty stats guy, he's a nothing player

His draft position means nothing, he was drafted 8 years ago, it has the same weight as arguing that Yakupov was drafted 1st overall for a reason, it's what they are (or aren't) doing in the league right now that matters, he's not a prospect, he's just a bad roster player

 

[OversKy]

We're gonna talk up a player with 30 point upside who provides nothing but forechecking energy but it's a waste to play Smith with Wennberg who scores 30+ points almost every year while providing upper-echelon defense?

Kunin doesn't even get stats and still manages to be an empty stats guy, he's a nothing player

His draft position means nothing, he was drafted 8 years ago, it has the same weight as arguing that Yakupov was drafted 1st overall for a reason, it's what they are (or aren't) doing in the league right now that matters, he's not a prospect, he's just a bad roster player

I have no faith in Kunin. I think he's awful and he's gritty in the way that he gets beat up and keeps skating, not in the tough guy or big hits kinda way. He has some of the worst finishing skills I think I've seen and I watched the Melkman later on and Sorenson.

 

[STL Shark]

One thing that never gets brought up during the weekly Kunin hate fests is that sports medicine professionals are increasingly of the opinion that it takes 18 months to 2 years for athletes to fully recover from ACL surgery and return to their previous level of performance.

We should see a version of Kunin this season much more in line with the player who averaged 17 goals per 82 games over the three seasons prior to his injury. He was taken 15th overall for a reason. There's a legit 15+15 power winger in there which every team would love to have in their middle six.

So you believe in Kunin's goal scoring at 0.85 goals per 60 for his career, but Kostin is waiver wire fodder with no skill given his 0.95 goals per 60. Make it make sense.

I've not been part of the anti-Kunin hive, so that straw man is out the door as well. Just bizarre to defend one of those two and think the other won't get claimed on waivers.

 

[OrrNumber4]

I will give Kunin some credit...you can see that he finds open ice and "useful space" well; he struggles to get to it and then finish effectively. That's something that an injury would affect

 

[Hodge]

So you believe in Kunin's goal scoring at 0.85 goals per 60 for his career, but Kostin is waiver wire fodder with no skill given his 0.95 goals per 60. Make it make sense.

I've not been part of the anti-Kunin hive, so that straw man is out the door as well. Just bizarre to defend one of those two and think the other won't get claimed on waivers.

It's a wonder why teams hire scouts or front office staff at all. Just get a monkey to sort Natural Stat Trick by ES goals per 60 and acquire the highest ranked available players. There's nothing else to evaluating a hockey player and certainly no additional context that should be considered.

 

[TheBeard]

Frankly, if you're a team and you're banking on either of Kostin or Kunin for their goalscoring ability, you should probably just ignore the upcoming season.

 

[weastern bias]

It's a wonder why teams hire scouts or front office staff at all. Just get a monkey to sort Natural Stat Trick by ES goals per 60 and acquire the highest ranked available players. There's nothing else to evaluating a hockey player and certainly no additional context that should be considered.

Please point out one single eye-test based observation that makes you think Luke Kunin is good

I've watched him, my eyes see a forechecking cannon ball who has no semblance of situational on ice awareness, poor puck skills, bad hands, and is a defensive liability, please correct me

 

[TheBeard]

Please point out one single eye-test based observation that makes you think Luke Kunin is good

I've watched him, my eyes see a forechecking cannon ball who has no semblance of situational on ice awareness, poor puck skills, bad hands, and is a defensive liability, please correct me

I think he's better than that, but, like Ferraro on the blue line, he was put in situations that make his game look worse than it is.

 

[Hodge]

Please point out one single eye-test based observation that makes you think Luke Kunin is good

I've watched him, my eyes see a forechecking cannon ball who has no semblance of situational on ice awareness, poor puck skills, bad hands, and is a defensive liability, please correct me

Being a forechecking cannon ball alone makes him good and useful to winning NHL teams. He's not that different from what Goodrow was for Tampa or Logan O'Connor on the Avs team that won. Difference is Kunin was also a much better goal scorer than those guys prior to the ACL injury. If he gets back to scoring at a ~15 goal pace in addition to remaining a physical F1, penalty killer and a leader on and off the ice he'll be in high demand at the trade deadline.

 

[spintops]

sports medicine professionals are increasingly of the opinion that it takes 18 months to 2 years for athletes to fully recover from ACL surgery and return to their previous level of performance.

Do you have links for this? Is it just a hockey thing? Im more familiar with football and that statement would be 100% false in that sport as athletes are recovering faster and faster.

 

[Hodge]

Do you have links for this? Is it just a hockey thing? Im more familiar with football and that statement would be 100% false in that sport as athletes are recovering faster and faster.

I initially heard it on a podcast but here's a peer reviewed sports medicine journal article saying the same thing:

The evidence in the literature indicates that the ACLR athletes do not regain baseline, or not significantly different from baseline, knee joint biological health and function until approximately two years after ACLR.

 

[weastern bias]

Being a forechecking cannon ball alone makes him good and useful to winning NHL teams. He's not that different from what Goodrow was for Tampa or Logan O'Connor on the Avs team that won. Difference is Kunin was also a much better goal scorer than those guys prior to the ACL injury. If he gets back to scoring at a ~15 goal pace in addition to remaining a physical F1, penalty killer and a leader on and off the ice he'll be in high demand at the trade deadline.

Plenty of guys run around and look really busy while accomplishing nothing

Mike Brown was an animal of the forcheck, he was also an incredibly detrimental player to his team every time he hit the ice, playing hard does not mean playing well

Barclay Goodrow during his cup runs was a plus defender and high level penalty killer, Luke Kunin is terrible defensively at even strength and shorthanded

I didn't watch O'Connor closely enough to comment

So we're back to ifs/whens and counting stats, which again, Kunin does not actually provide and it is merely a hope at this point, sounds an awful lot like a bad player to me

I think he's better than that, but, like Ferraro on the blue line, he was put in situations that make his game look worse than it is.

I think Ferraro is an NHL defenseman who is overexposed as the #1D on a historically bad team, on a great team I think he's well suited as a slightly overqualified #5

On a good team Luke Kunin is the 13th forward, a guy who exists to play 5 minutes every 3rd game chasing the puck and attacking the defense on the forecheck, but he doesn't serve a purpose to a team with real aspirations

 

[STL Shark]

It's a wonder why teams hire scouts or front office staff at all. Just get a monkey to sort Natural Stat Trick by ES goals per 60 and acquire the highest ranked available players. There's nothing else to evaluating a hockey player and certainly no additional context that should be considered.

It's this fallacy that you ALWAYS pedal where you consistently contradict yourself (always on the contrarian side). Like citing Kunin's goal scoring and 1st round pedigree when someone that to date has been as good or better of a goal scorer on the ice and also has 1st round pedigree is waiver fodder because you say so.

I acknowledge that he's not a great all around player when he isn't scoring and that he's not a guy that has the best attitude, but at 6'4, good skating, and able to finish at a 2nd or 3rd line clip, he has value at $2M and is a guy that wouldn't be a bad fit next to Will Smith to start his career (with the goal being find him a big bodied puck retriever that can finish and shelter them). That is all the point has ever been.