Perhaps, but if Dickinson makes the team I don't know how much Grier wants three teenagers and a guy who just turned 20 (along with a near-rookie goaltender) to lead the charge. I would say Musty, Haalttunen or Cagnoni would have much better odds even if they don't wow as much in camp.
Speculation: 2023-24-25 Sharks Roster Discussion
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spintops
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STL Shark
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I think this is the right outcome should it happen, but Pagnotta reporting it makes me think that the opposite is going to happen.
3 Sharks on the list. Granlund whom they think is a prime candidate, Ceci who they think can be had for moderate value and, to the surprise of many here I would assume, Ferraro who they think could fetch a substantial return because of his cap hit and additional year.
The team next year will be roughly as bad as the team this year. There aren’t many reinforcements on their way. Even if Grier signs a couple more decent FAs, all the prospects not in the NHL are at least 1-2 years from being regulars let alone highly useful.
Internazionale
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As much as I like Granlund, I'd rather see him play for a good team that has a chance of winning now.
Hodge
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If we trade Ferraro and Ceci we could easily slide back into 2023-24 levels of horror-bad.
Juxtaposer
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Utah traded for Marino and Sergachev in one off-season. It's not impossible to do.
Star Platinum
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I can't see us having more than one of Dickinson, Cagnoni, or Mukhamadullin on next year's roster. Walman will almost assuredly be back and they have to know they need a better LHD than anybody currently on the roster, even if that guy isn't as offensively skilled as Walman. The opportunity for a second young guy to get another long-term look will be when they in all likelihood move Walman at next year's trade deadline.
Most likely what happens is Cagnoni spends another year in the AHL, Mukhamadullin gets a short contract extension and gets a chance to win a job with the big club, and Dickinson wastes another year dominating 16 year olds in junior hockey.
Star Platinum
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But Celebrini and Smith should be better versions of the guys they are this year and to a lesser degree, Eklund. Will they be anywhere near a playoff spot? No. But I think they likely end up more in the 5-10 range in the draft unless Grier shits the bed in free agency.
Other than Askarov, our best prospects need to cook more. Musty and Halttunen will be in the AHL, Dickinson probably is in London, and whoever the Sharks draft will probably be back in whatever league they played in this year.
I don't think it will be that hard for the Sharks to get guys as good as those 2 in the offseason. I'm hoping at least one will be better.
Hodge
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But if all we do is replace Ferraro and Ceci we've essentially just brought back the worst defense corps in the league.
Expecting to replace those two *and* acquire 1-2 better defensemen on top of that is just unrealistic.
And there's a real risk we won't even be able to replace Ferraro and Ceci in which case we will probably become an even worse defensive team.
This is why it makes absolutely no sense he's not with the club now. Either the team is trying to win (and failing miserably) by playing vets over kids, or they're completely delusional about who the best options are by not playing the kids. Playing guys like Ruuta and Vlasic over Mukh or Thompson only to have to go through the process all over again next year (in terms of evaluating in camp) just seems so directionless.
I'm sure it's not the ideal situation for any manager but it might be the best path forward for everyone involved. They need a group of young players to build around. They have to be there at some point and they have to get the experience together to find success as an individual and as a team. Those players could possibly have better odds but they may not due to draft pedigree. We'll see how Grier decides to handle it. But even if those players have a better chance and end up making it, you're still dealing with a player making it that has no NHL experience going into it with that teenager, the guy who just turned 20, and the should-be rookie goalie. That's why next year still isn't going to look all that competitive. There's going to be growing pains for them as individual players and as a team. We have to temper expectations just because we're starting to get some talent on the team.
I think plugging two teenage defensemen into an already weak d-core without any real mentor and a potential building block goalie getting his first taste at real starter time is grounds for disaster.
Star Platinum
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I think you're misunderstanding what I'm saying. This is what I hope Grier is looking to do:
Feb-Mar: Trade Ferraro and Ceci for the best deal you can get. If someone is willing to take Rutta, do that too, otherwise waive him and give those minutes to Jack Thompson. Probably we get some cap dump guys back that will get sprinkled through the lineup. Bring Mukhamadullin back up to replace Ferraro. Bring Cagnoni up after the deadline and give him some starts mixed with Thrun.
June-July: Sign the best LHD and 2 RHD you can convince to come here. Overpay them on a short deal if you need to give them extra incentive. Move Thrun or buyout Vlasic and have the guy you don't move be the #7 defenseman. Give short extensions to Mukhamadullin and Thompson.
Theoretical defensive pairs for next season:
XX - XX (new guys)
Walman-XX (new guy)
Mukhamadullin-Liljegren
Mar 2026: Move Walman and Liljegren for picks, bring Cagnoni back up to replace Walman, bring Thompson back to replace Liljegren.
Oct 2026: Dickinson to AHL. Schaefer if we get him to NHL. Bring Dickinson up sometime during the season if he's playing well in AHL.
It’s gonna be regardless. There isn’t a quick fix.
Star Platinum
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His injury screwed up his timeline. He'll be up again when Ferraro gets traded.
At this point trading Ferraro makes zero sense. Ruuta and Ceci and probably Thrun aren't coming back (even with Thrun's additional year), and unless the team wants to bringing in guys with more term than we need id rather just let the guys wth the additional year (mario, Walman and Lilj) just do what they do until the deadline next year. Getting rid of too many of our D-men this year puts too much pressure on the kids next year unless Grier plans on overpaying for new guys with too much term.
If you look at the Penguins roster in 07-08 when they were playing their superstar kids (Letang, Whitney, Crosby, Malkin), that defense was mostly vets in their late 20s early 30s (Gonchar, Orpik, Sydor, Hal Gill etc). I think that's the sensible approach for us if Grier really wants to take his time.
Star Platinum
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The only way the Sharks are going to have a better defense next year is by opening up a slot on the left side and acquiring someone better to push Walman down. Otherwise you're going to have Walman and Ferraro occupying the top two spots on the left side, Liljegren on the right side, and that's half of your top 4 being the same guys that aren't good enough this year.
Juxtaposer
Outro: Divina Comedia
Per PuckPedia, Kesselring isn't an FA until 2026, and they've got tons of cap space besides.
Kovacevic would be a good target assuming we believe that his play this year is for real. I don't have any strong opinions one way or the other right now, but would assume that Grier's pro scouts would be closely evaluating this.
I wonder if there's any world in which Boston shops Charlie McAvoy. He's underperforming his contract and they look like they're headed for rebuild...
Hodge
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Expecting to add three new top 4 defensemen in one offseason and counting on Mukhamadullin to replace Ferraro right away seems unrealistic to me.
hockeyball
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We are in the homestretch folks. By that I mean we know essentially, at it's core, what the future San Jose Sharks are going to look like. It's going to be built around Celebrini, we will have Davidson and possibly Schaefer (or whoever we pick) to build our defense around, and Askarov to back up the team up. The rest of the team will always be in flux, even when we start being a winning team again. Guys like Smith and Eklund might become part of that core, or they might not reach their full potential, hard to say at this point. The rest of the prospects... some will hit, some will miss, we'll pick up bits and pieces from the trade market and the free agent periods (which will be a lot easier with a guy like Celebrini on the roster).
My point is, don't rush it. Let the kids develop naturally. We don't need to win right now, it wouldn't help us in any significant way, and the "losing culture" talk is not valid because every rebuilding team goes through this period on their way to success and they often still succeed regardless of their records as they came out of their rebuilds. Celebrini isn't stupid, he's played more hockey in 18 years than any of us ever will. He and the rest of the kids know they are on a rebuilding team with HUGE potential and losing right now is not indicative of future success or failure. In fact, if we started winning right now it very well may cause us to become a good but not good enough team who cannot take advantage of the window of time they have to build a roster with high talent at low cost and end up middling and unable to get over the hump before they collapse again (as we've seen many teams do, like Buffalo). THAT would be the worst case scenario.
Be patient, brush off the losses, don't hope for too much too fast because the result may be far more depressing. Losing right now is a learning experience, it's an opportunity for these kids to learn how to play in the NHL and how to battle and out work their opponents (not lean on their talent). They are not going to get frustrated and leave because it's what ALL rebuilding teams go through and they know that. And if someone does get frustrated and leave they likely are not a piece to our success anyway. There is a lot of luck involved, but Grier so far has done everything that matters right. He's made smart trades, he's picked well in the draft, he's already built up a good reputation around the league and players are excited to be a part of what he's building. DW's mistake was always trying to force a team together, Grier seems to get that you have to grow a team, like a garden. Let's just stay calm and laugh this stuff off because in a few years it won't matter at all anyway.
My point is, don't rush it. Let the kids develop naturally. We don't need to win right now, it wouldn't help us in any significant way, and the "losing culture" talk is not valid because every rebuilding team goes through this period on their way to success and they often still succeed regardless of their records as they came out of their rebuilds. Celebrini isn't stupid, he's played more hockey in 18 years than any of us ever will. He and the rest of the kids know they are on a rebuilding team with HUGE potential and losing right now is not indicative of future success or failure. In fact, if we started winning right now it very well may cause us to become a good but not good enough team who cannot take advantage of the window of time they have to build a roster with high talent at low cost and end up middling and unable to get over the hump before they collapse again (as we've seen many teams do, like Buffalo). THAT would be the worst case scenario.
Be patient, brush off the losses, don't hope for too much too fast because the result may be far more depressing. Losing right now is a learning experience, it's an opportunity for these kids to learn how to play in the NHL and how to battle and out work their opponents (not lean on their talent). They are not going to get frustrated and leave because it's what ALL rebuilding teams go through and they know that. And if someone does get frustrated and leave they likely are not a piece to our success anyway. There is a lot of luck involved, but Grier so far has done everything that matters right. He's made smart trades, he's picked well in the draft, he's already built up a good reputation around the league and players are excited to be a part of what he's building. DW's mistake was always trying to force a team together, Grier seems to get that you have to grow a team, like a garden. Let's just stay calm and laugh this stuff off because in a few years it won't matter at all anyway.
Star Platinum
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