Speculation: 2023-24-25 Sharks Roster Discussion

[Sharksfan66]

Laf may still turn out to be a top line player. Smith has the risk of busting or being a slow grower into the NHL just like him or many others. And yes, players bust. Smith very well may bust. We won't know that from his first season on an improved but still weak team.

Lafreniere has yet to show he is a legit play driver in the NHL, let alone a top line player. This isn't me calling him a bust btw. I don't think Laf is a bust. But you are not likely to win a cup with a guy like Laf as your second best forward. I think we're all pretty hopeful Smith will be the kind of guy you could win a cup with as your second best forward. Hence why I say I sure hope he's no Laf.

 

[Sharksfan66]

33% all star is not "rarely" in my opinion.

I think Jux and I both disagree with you here. It's a contact sport. "Fluke" or wear and tear are all injury. They factor in. You can't throw it out.

It seems like we're just not going to see eye to eye here. I am fine with <40 point seasons as long as they look like they're developing and getting their feet under them. If they do better, great, and we'll see if it translates to continued development in the subsequent years. I would put money on an over/under in the low to mid 40s. Aka hard to choose under or over at, say, 43-45.

Sorry this is getting so choppy, I apparently don't know how to respond to multiple parts of your post at a time and thought it would connect them all, but it looks like I'm spamming this thread. Sorry everyone!

Will dump all the rest of my thoughts here:

33% was my "for the sake of argument number. Currently I have it at 17% that have established themselves as legit top line players. Either way, those aren't odds I like.

We'll have to agree to disagree on the injury thing. It sounds like we've both been watching this team for a long time, so I respect your opinion. I just see it differently. I'm sure you hope I'm right and all here.

On your last paragraph, I'm curious how would you know they are getting their feet under them? If not on the score sheet, is there some advanced stat you'll be looking for? Eye test? The way the coaches are talking? At a base level, I think I agree with you that that's what I hope to see as well, I just think that that would look like them taking over the 1 & 2C slots and driving play by season's end and I have to imagine if they both do that, we'll be taking the over on your over/under (which is aptly picked, that is a lot harder than placing it at 40).

 

[Juxtaposer]

I think you're being a little paranoid on the injury front. When's the last time a team lost 2 rookies due to injury in the same season? As long as Vegas doesn't sign Happy Gilmore, I think we'll be fine.

The PMD thing is a good point though and this helps me understand your projects a lot better. While I actually don't think its that hard to score on a bad team (hello Mikael Granlund), I hadn't thought about how the Sharks' lack of PMD would effect the forwards. The age point about Celebrini is a good one too. I keep forgetting just how young he is.

Before reading your post, I would have been happy if Smith/Celebrini each hit 50 pts and hoped for Smith to get 60 (call me crazy but his NCAA season last year really has me with high hopes). Now, I'll say I'd be thrilled with Smith hitting 50 and Celebrini hitting 40. Look at what you've done to me.

I definitely don't want to throttle your excitement for this upcoming season! It's super cool that people are hyped about Celebrini and Smith, they deserve it. I'm just more of a realist by nature and I'd rather be pleasantly surprised than disappointed. I also just don't want to set expectations so high that if they fail to achieve them, people turn on them or get worried about them.

It's probably fair to say that I might be a little paranoid on the injury front (the Bedard/Carlsson/Fantilli injuries were just brutal this season). But I think there is a very real difference between a 10 year veteran like Granlund coming in a putting up 60 points on a horrible team and a fresh 18 year old doing it.

All this to say: Celebrini and Smith are awesome, awesome players whom I have very high hopes for. I just think they're going to have the same types of growing pains next year that William Eklund had this year. I want to say there were a couple stretches of 15+ games where Eklund only had a couple points towards the middle of the year, before he really found his stride in the last 25 games. I expect there to be a learning curve for 71 and 2 as well, which limits their potential total production IMO.

Why don't we agree to split the difference and say it's a fair expectation that, assuming they stay healthy and don't run out of steam, Celebrini and Smith hopefully are scoring at 60 and 50 point paces respectively for the second half of the season?

 

[Patty Ice]

definitely don't want to throttle your excitement for this upcoming season! It's super cool that people are hyped about Celebrini and Smith, they deserve it. I'm just more of a realist by nature and I'd rather be pleasantly surprised than disappointed

I'm somewhat of a realist myself.

I full expect a 3 way Calder race between Celebrini, Smith, and Askarov, that is ultimately won by Celebrini 's 85 point season over Smith's 75 point season and Askarov's 40 win, 10 shutout season.

BDE and Musty also make the team out of camp and prove to be the truth. And the Sharks make the playoffs making it to the WCF while the refs try to job them each series. Vegas craters and end up winning the lottery which the Sharks quickly swap to.

I'd say that's realistic.

 

[matt trick]

I'm somewhat of a realist myself.

I full expect a 3 way Calder race between Celebrini, Smith, and Askarov, that is ultimately won by Celebrini 's 85 point season over Smith's 75 point season and Askarov's 40 win, 10 shutout season.

BDE and Musty also make the team out of camp and prove to be the truth. And the Sharks make the playoffs making it to the WCF while the refs try to job them each series. Vegas craters and end up winning the lottery which the Sharks quickly swap to.

I'd say that's realistic.

Too pessimistic, I’ve got Celebrini and Smith breaking Selanne’s 76 goal, 132 point rookie record. Even though he was 22, that record rivals some of Gretzky’s best. Absolutely absurd!

 

[spintops]

TIL I learned that deferred money doesn't count against the salary cap (Jarvis deal). That seems like a terrible mechanism for a hard cap league.

 

[Hodge]

TIL I learned that deferred money doesn't count against the salary cap (Jarvis deal). That seems like a terrible mechanism for a hard cap league.

Who cares? It can only benefit us. Get Eklund, Celebrini and Smith to defer salary on their 2nd contracts and we might be able to add an extra player we otherwise couldn’t afford.

 

[coooldude]

If you're banking on him being in the third of prospects who break the trend, I think you at least have to call that what it is--wishful thinking.

This is where I agree with you - we are talking past each other. I don't think a <40 or >50 point season determines anything for either player this season. Yes, it gives us some new priors with which to judge the next season, but the sample sizes are so low and the individual circumstances are so unique that the numbers don't matter much. HOWEVER if you want to squint at the numbers, then you have to just see the >50% chance that they don't hit 40 points and realize it's not a kiss of death, and I don't agree with your analysis that concludes that the odds of a good player developing after a 40pt season is 1/18. You just can't throw all the other examples out.

Now if Smith fails to hit 40, I'll be right there with you hoping against hope that he's the next Hughes. But as I said, the second you add some context and nuance, it's really 1/18, not 1/3, and those are not odds I'd like to have to bet on.

Again, talking past each other. If Smith fails to hit 40, you are in a mindset that he has a 1/18 chance to become a top 10 center in the league or else he's disappointing. I'll have the mindset that he was with 50%+ of the other prospects who struggled a little in their first pro year. Not as good as a breakout but certainly not a kiss of death.

As for what I'll be looking for: all of the above re: eye test, advanced stats, what the coaches and players are saying, and what Jux said re: how they finish the year in the last 10-15 games. Eklund didn't light up the league by stats, but he looked like a solid 2nd liner already in the last 15 games or so. If Celebrini and Smith are there in the last 15, and 2-3 years ahead of Eklund, they're on track for stardom. Even at 35-45 points.

 

[spintops]

Who cares? It can only benefit us. Get Eklund, Celebrini and Smith to defer salary on their 2nd contracts and we might be able to add an extra player we otherwise couldn’t afford.

Slow down big guy.

 

[fasterthanlight]

I don't know the details but I do hope grier is willing to play fast and loose with the cap rules like Chicago, Tampa, VGK etc. DW never did circumvention (except for maybe labanc). And while it was helpful for me in arguments on HF boards to point to why the sharks are morally superior or whatever, I think the touch grass take is: try to put together a good team.

 

[sharski]

I don't know the details but I do hope grier is willing to play fast and loose with the cap rules like Chicago, Tampa, VGK etc. DW never did circumvention (except for maybe labanc). And while it was helpful for me in arguments on HF boards to point to why the sharks are morally superior or whatever, I think the touch grass take is: try to put together a good team.

"The game is out there... and it's either play or get played"
-Abraham Lincoln

 

[TheBeard]

Who cares? It can only benefit us. Get Eklund, Celebrini and Smith to defer salary on their 2nd contracts and we might be able to add an extra player we otherwise couldn’t afford.

Right? That was the first thing i thought of. We’re in the perfect position to take advantage of this new loophole.

 

[Sharksfan66]

I definitely don't want to throttle your excitement for this upcoming season! It's super cool that people are hyped about Celebrini and Smith, they deserve it. I'm just more of a realist by nature and I'd rather be pleasantly surprised than disappointed. I also just don't want to set expectations so high that if they fail to achieve them, people turn on them or get worried about them.

It's probably fair to say that I might be a little paranoid on the injury front (the Bedard/Carlsson/Fantilli injuries were just brutal this season). But I think there is a very real difference between a 10 year veteran like Granlund coming in a putting up 60 points on a horrible team and a fresh 18 year old doing it.

All this to say: Celebrini and Smith are awesome, awesome players whom I have very high hopes for. I just think they're going to have the same types of growing pains next year that William Eklund had this year. I want to say there were a couple stretches of 15+ games where Eklund only had a couple points towards the middle of the year, before he really found his stride in the last 25 games. I expect there to be a learning curve for 71 and 2 as well, which limits their potential total production IMO.

Why don't we agree to split the difference and say it's a fair expectation that, assuming they stay healthy and don't run out of steam, Celebrini and Smith hopefully are scoring at 60 and 50 point paces respectively for the second half of the season?

Not throttled at all. I still feel more excited about this coming season than I have any season since the summer we got Heatley! Just a bit more realistic, which may help maintain that optimism come January.

I appreciate the interaction!

 

[Barrie22]

Has the league officially allowed this contract or not yet?

The way that contract was explained seems to break the actual cba's wording of how a contract has to be calculated. And also exceeds contract length limits.

This feels like the kovalchuk contract all over again.

 

[Sharksfan66]

This is where I agree with you - we are talking past each other. I don't think a <40 or >50 point season determines anything for either player this season. Yes, it gives us some new priors with which to judge the next season, but the sample sizes are so low and the individual circumstances are so unique that the numbers don't matter much. HOWEVER if you want to squint at the numbers, then you have to just see the >50% chance that they don't hit 40 points and realize it's not a kiss of death, and I don't agree with your analysis that concludes that the odds of a good player developing after a 40pt season is 1/18. You just can't throw all the other examples out.


Again, talking past each other. If Smith fails to hit 40, you are in a mindset that he has a 1/18 chance to become a top 10 center in the league or else he's disappointing. I'll have the mindset that he was with 50%+ of the other prospects who struggled a little in their first pro year. Not as good as a breakout but certainly not a kiss of death.

As for what I'll be looking for: all of the above re: eye test, advanced stats, what the coaches and players are saying, and what Jux said re: how they finish the year in the last 10-15 games. Eklund didn't light up the league by stats, but he looked like a solid 2nd liner already in the last 15 games or so. If Celebrini and Smith are there in the last 15, and 2-3 years ahead of Eklund, they're on track for stardom. Even at 35-45 points.

Ya, different ways of looking at it for sure. It's funny how much "context" can change our analysis of the numbers. I feel totally good about the 1/18 number but I can also see why you don't.

Thanks for all the interaction. It's always helpful to expand my perspective and this really does help me make better sense of a lot of what I'm reading on here.

 

[TheBeard]

Both Smith and Celebrini will be heavily dependent on who their line mates are for points. If Smith ended up in the 30-35 point range I wouldn't be all that surprised because he'll be playing third line minutes with third line guys like Wennberg. Celebrini will be playing top 6 minutes, PP1 or PP2 time and have Toffoli and maybe Kostin/Bordeleau or even Logan on his wings.

 

[Barrie22]

Why is everyone so adament that smith will be getting 3rd line minutes? Sharks have 5 nhl top 6 players on the roster and that includes couture who a month before the season has still not stepped onto the ice, so with smith and Celebini that makes the top 6.

 

[hotcabbagesoup]

I'm somewhat of a realist myself.

I full expect a 3 way Calder race between Celebrini, Smith, and Askarov, that is ultimately won by Celebrini 's 85 point season over Smith's 75 point season and Askarov's 40 win, 10 shutout season.

BDE and Musty also make the team out of camp and prove to be the truth. And the Sharks make the playoffs making it to the WCF while the refs try to job them each series. Vegas craters and end up winning the lottery which the Sharks quickly swap to.

I'd say that's realistic.

Who is BDE again?

 

[Cas]

Why is everyone so adament that smith will be getting 3rd line minutes? Sharks have 5 nhl top 6 players on the roster and that includes couture who a month before the season has still not stepped onto the ice, so with smith and Celebini that makes the top 6.

I believe the expectation is that Smith and Celebrini will be kept separate, while the Eklund-Granlund-Zetterlund line will stay together (at least to start the year), so someone (likely Smith) gets the short end of the stick.

It may also be a good idea to give our two rookies some 3rd line minute roles, for health/growth reasons. Not all season, just some of the time.

Ultimately, it remains to be seen whether both of the assumptions hold true.

Who is BDE again?

Dickinson.

 

[Lebanezer]

With the exception of @Patty Ice's predictions, it's hard to be realistic without knowing the Power Play units. I fully expect Celebrini to be on PP1 for the majority of the season. Smith I'm not so sure, and that's not because he shouldn't be on there, I think he should be, but because it might be hard to make space for him. If Couture plays this season that will complicate these units even more.

PP1:
Celebrini-Granlund-Eklund-Toffoli-D(Walman/Thrun/5th F?)
PP2:
Zetterlund-Smith-Wennberg/Dellandrea/Kostin/Other
Wennberg/Dellandrea/Kostin/Other-D(Muk/Thrun)

If Celebrini plays 18 minutes a night with 1st unit PP, I wouldn't be surprised if he scores 65+ points. If Smith is utilized on the 1st PP, I would expect him to score well over 50 points. If he's on PP2, then 40ish is probably more realistic. After the Trade deadline when I assume Granlund is moved to a contender, then I expect both Smith and Celebrini to play PP1.

 

[weastern bias]

I think the ideal scenario is that Smith and Celebrini are sheltered at even strength but given premium power play time to juice their production and improve their confidence

PP1 should be:
Toffoli-Celebrini-Eklund
Smith-Walman

Alternative look:
Toffoli-Smith-Celebrini
Eklund-Walman

 

[Juxtaposer]

I think the ideal scenario is that Smith and Celebrini are sheltered at even strength but given premium power play time to juice their production and improve their confidence

PP1 should be:
Toffoli-Celebrini-Eklund
Smith-Walman

Alternative look:
Toffoli-Smith-Celebrini
Eklund-Walman

I definitely think Smith might actually be the best PPQB in this entire organization right now. BC's PP was kind of an umbrella style and he played on the left side of it but he also kinda functioned as a co-QB with Powell in a way that I think will translate to the NHL.

I would probably actually do something like Walman at the top of the umbrella, Smith on the left, Celebrini on the right, Zetterlund net-front, and Eklund popping out.

Then run a 2PP with Granlund, Toffoli, Mukhamadullin, etc.

 

[CupfortheSharks]

I definitely think Smith might actually be the best PPQB in this entire organization right now. BC's PP was kind of an umbrella style and he played on the left side of it but he also kinda functioned as a co-QB with Powell in a way that I think will translate to the NHL.

I would probably actually do something like Walman at the top of the umbrella, Smith on the left, Celebrini on the right, Zetterlund net-front, and Eklund popping out.

Then run a 2PP with Granlund, Toffoli, Mukhamadullin, etc.

Toffoli is going to get PP1 time. He’s our best sniper and only proven 30 goal scorer. If Smith and Celebrini both make PP1 then Eklund moves to PP2. He doesn’t belong as the bumper anyways.

 

[sampler]

Smith would be a great pp qb. His passing and vision is elite. I actually think he would be a better pair with Toffoli than Celebrini. Celebrini seems to be more of a balanced shoot/pass player, if not leaning toward finishing.

Personally I would love to see musty make it paired with smith, toffoli, and Eklund.

 

[weastern bias]

I definitely think Smith might actually be the best PPQB in this entire organization right now. BC's PP was kind of an umbrella style and he played on the left side of it but he also kinda functioned as a co-QB with Powell in a way that I think will translate to the NHL.

I would probably actually do something like Walman at the top of the umbrella, Smith on the left, Celebrini on the right, Zetterlund net-front, and Eklund popping out.

Then run a 2PP with Granlund, Toffoli, Mukhamadullin, etc.

This how I see him as well, I really think he's going to be our Mitch Marner but hopefully a better big game performer