Speculation: 2023-24-25 Sharks Roster Discussion

[Pinkfloyd]

Probably if it's a player the Sharks are aggressive about signing. An August signing might be different

An August signing is highly unlikely to be a premier player.

 

[Hangemhigh]

An August signing is highly unlikely to be a premier player.

Yes, but on July 1, 2012, Burish signed a four-year deal with the Sharks at $1.8 million per year

 

[OrrNumber4]

Even if San Jose wanted Cernak (they don't, given Grier's aversion to long-term commitments), and even if Tampa Bay had the assets to offload him, I can't see him waiving for San Jose.

Also, let me acknowledge that I don't know for sure if he has a NTC/NMC...but given the way contracts are structured nowadays, I'm 90% sure he has one.

 

[DG93]

Even if San Jose wanted Cernak (they don't, given Grier's aversion to long-term commitments), and even if Tampa Bay had the assets to offload him, I can't see him waiving for San Jose.

Also, let me acknowledge that I don't know for sure if he has a NTC/NMC...but given the way contracts are structured nowadays, I'm 90% sure he has one.

Looks like he has a NTC starting next year x3 years followed by a modified NTC for the remaining 4 years

 

[coooldude]

I would give up a lot for Cernak. He's exactly what we need.

Might not have to give up a lot with that term. I doubt Grier goes for it with 7 years remaining, but maybe with the reasonable amount ($5M). That said...

Even if San Jose wanted Cernak (they don't, given Grier's aversion to long-term commitments), and even if Tampa Bay had the assets to offload him, I can't see him waiving for San Jose.

Also, let me acknowledge that I don't know for sure if he has a NTC/NMC...but given the way contracts are structured nowadays, I'm 90% sure he has one.

He has an NTC for three more seasons that converts to an M-NTC through 2031.

You don't trade for this contract unless you are expecting to buy him out at the end. That said, because of the NTC he won't come to SJ, is the likely answer.

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[Barrie22]

Might not have to give up a lot with that term. I doubt Grier goes for it with 7 years remaining, but maybe with the reasonable amount ($5M). That said...

He has an NTC for three more seasons that converts to an M-NTC through 2031.

You don't trade for this contract unless you are expecting to buy him out at the end. That said, because of the NTC he won't come to SJ, is the likely answer.

Thank You - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Thank you for the amazing 9 years

www.capfriendly.com

Could still trade for him before his NTC kicks in which is some time in July

 

[STL Shark]

I would give up a lot for Cernak. He's exactly what we need.

What would you define as "a lot"?

If we win the lottery, I agree that a big top 4 RHD is on the shopping list, just not sure what asset cost makes sense to pay given the age and contract along with the fact that he's missed 10+ games every year of his career sans the COVID shutdown season (10, 27, 12, and 13 games missed from 2020-21 thru 2023-24 seasons).

I am all for trying to find our Dougie Hamilton like NJD did, but the big boost of that was they only had to hand out money/cap space rather than assets and cap space. To me, Cernak would come down to acquisition cost and I'd probably not pay a 1st rounder just because of the age thing (27 in a month).

 

[Hodge]

Even if San Jose wanted Cernak (they don't, given Grier's aversion to long-term commitments), and even if Tampa Bay had the assets to offload him, I can't see him waiving for San Jose.

Also, let me acknowledge that I don't know for sure if he has a NTC/NMC...but given the way contracts are structured nowadays, I'm 90% sure he has one.

Grier specifically said he doesn't want to sign 30 year olds to 5+ year deals. Cernak is 26. And since he's that young, he's not even eligible to have NTC/NMC rights until July 1st of this year.

What would you define as "a lot"?

If we win the lottery, I agree that a big top 4 RHD is on the shopping list, just not sure what asset cost makes sense to pay given the age and contract along with the fact that he's missed 10+ games every year of his career sans the COVID shutdown season (10, 27, 12, and 13 games missed from 2020-21 thru 2023-24 seasons).

I am all for trying to find our Dougie Hamilton like NJD did, but the big boost of that was they only had to hand out money/cap space rather than assets and cap space. To me, Cernak would come down to acquisition cost and I'd probably not pay a 1st rounder just because of the age thing (27 in a month).

PIT 1st + Bystedt/Edstrom/Halttunen tier prospect. He's only 26 and on a great contract that will look like a downright steal when the cap is 90+ million.

 

[jarr92]

PIT 1st + Bystedt/Edstrom/Halttunen tier prospect. He's only 26 and on a great contract that will look like a downright steal when the cap is 90+ million.

Would he really be worth that much? He doesn’t put up great point totals, his analytics this season weren’t great, and Tampa needs cap help. I would be kind of annoyed if that was the cost for MG to acquire him and help Tampa sign Stamkos. The whole point of acquiring a player in that situation is cheaper cost for trade.

 

[STL Shark]

Grier specifically said he doesn't want to sign 30 year olds to 5+ year deals. Cernak is 26. And since he's that young, he's not even eligible to have NTC/NMC rights until July 1st of this year.

PIT 1st + Bystedt/Edstrom/Halttunen tier prospect. He's only 26 and on a great contract that will look like a downright steal when the cap is 90+ million.

Will be playing his age 27-33 seasons on a team that will only be coming into their potential "window" during the age 30-33 portion of that deal. Seems like a steep acquisition cost for someone that will be on the downslide of his career when we're ready to truly compete for something.

Maybe Vlasic has overly scarred me, but seeing his dropoff at Age 30 as a defensive minded D-Man gives me pause when Cernak himself has been mostly meh the last year and a half or so (which is why he's potentially available via trade) and we will be getting the backend of his productive years.

Would he really be worth that much? He doesn’t put up great point totals, his analytics this season weren’t great, and Tampa needs cap help. I would be kind of annoyed if that was the cost for MG to acquire him and help Tampa sign Stamkos. The whole point of acquiring a player in that situation is cheaper cost for trade.

Feels like it should be more similar to the McDonagh situation to me. I think we've seen first hand how hard it is to move long-term money for great value so I would imagine the cost has to be lower than that. I'd do Bordeleau + NJD 2nd and that's about my max offer.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Will be playing his age 27-33 seasons on a team that will only be coming into their potential "window" during the age 30-33 portion of that deal. Seems like a steep acquisition cost for someone that will be on the downslide of his career when we're ready to truly compete for something.

Maybe Vlasic has overly scarred me, but seeing his dropoff at Age 30 as a defensive minded D-Man gives me pause when Cernak himself has been mostly meh the last year and a half or so (which is why he's potentially available via trade) and we will be getting the backend of his productive years.


Feels like it should be more similar to the McDonagh situation to me. I think we've seen first hand how hard it is to move long-term money for great value so I would imagine the cost has to be lower than that. I'd do Bordeleau + NJD 2nd and that's about my max offer.

Until the team knows what the lottery situation looks like, making a trade for someone like Cernak where you're committing that much term is just a bad idea. Moving high draft picks up to the first half of the 2nd round is just a bad idea until we have more players materialize with Eklund and Zetterlund to build around. The only way I'm trading for Cernak to take on that contract is if we're sending Burroughs and something like Tampa's 3rd back to them. I'm not giving up much in futures for anyone's cap dump regardless of the sort of fit they may be. Fits don't matter because we won't have anywhere near enough talent to make use of it.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Grier specifically said he doesn't want to sign 30 year olds to 5+ year deals. Cernak is 26. And since he's that young, he's not even eligible to have NTC/NMC rights until July 1st of this year.

PIT 1st + Bystedt/Edstrom/Halttunen tier prospect. He's only 26 and on a great contract that will look like a downright steal when the cap is 90+ million.

The only reason Cernak is on the table is because he was not good this year and had a bunch of injuries that are concerning moving forward. I wouldn’t give up 14th overall, never mind one of those forward prospects. I was thinking if they really need to create cap, we do them a solid by taking the contract on at full price for like Bordeleau and a 3rd. Hell no to paying a premium price.

 

[Alaskanice]

The only reason Cernak is on the table is because he was not good this year and had a bunch of injuries that are concerning moving forward. I wouldn’t give up 14th overall, never mind one of those forward prospects. I was thinking if they really need to create cap, we do them a solid by taking the contract on at full price for like Bordeleau and a 3rd. Hell no to paying a premium price.

I agree with this. They’re not in a position to ask for what they want.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

The only reason Cernak is on the table is because he was not good this year and had a bunch of injuries that are concerning moving forward. I wouldn’t give up 14th overall, never mind one of those forward prospects. I was thinking if they really need to create cap, we do them a solid by taking the contract on at full price for like Bordeleau and a 3rd. Hell no to paying a premium price.

I wouldn't even do Bordeleau. Let them have someone like Sabourin or Knyzhov with Burroughs and a 3rd or later.

 

[OrrNumber4]

Agreed. If the Sharks get Cernak, it should be for free.

 

[STL Shark]

Until the team knows what the lottery situation looks like, making a trade for someone like Cernak where you're committing that much term is just a bad idea. Moving high draft picks up to the first half of the 2nd round is just a bad idea until we have more players materialize with Eklund and Zetterlund to build around. The only way I'm trading for Cernak to take on that contract is if we're sending Burroughs and something like Tampa's 3rd back to them. I'm not giving up much in futures for anyone's cap dump regardless of the sort of fit they may be. Fits don't matter because we won't have anywhere near enough talent to make use of it.

For sure. Only way that I am trying to "add" this year is if we win the draft lottery. Otherwise, you ride out another year and maybe take on short term bad contracts in exchange for draft compensation. Makes the youngsters still have to earn it and look more respectable while not damaging the long-term vision until you're able to secure that elite prospect.

If you get Celebrini, you can start to add to the roster just because you want to be able to capitalize on Year 3 of Celebrini/Smith ELCs to start to make a playoff push before they start to potentially cost a lot more money (or right as those new extensions kick in as you don't want to pay them large contracts and not be a playoff team).

 

[Sendhelplease]

Grier specifically said he doesn't want to sign 30 year olds to 5+ year deals. Cernak is 26. And since he's that young, he's not even eligible to have NTC/NMC rights until July 1st of this year.

PIT 1st + Bystedt/Edstrom/Halttunen tier prospect. He's only 26 and on a great contract that will look like a downright steal when the cap is 90+ million.

I probably wouldn't be willing to give up Bystedt or Edstrom plus the PIT 1st but I would trade any one of those assets for Cernak. Cernak is a good big young RHD, those guys are rare and valuable. The only concern I would have is that his physical style might take a toll and age poorly but considering he is only 26 I would consider it.

 

[Gecklund]

The only reason Cernak is on the table is because he was not good this year and had a bunch of injuries that are concerning moving forward. I wouldn’t give up 14th overall, never mind one of those forward prospects. I was thinking if they really need to create cap, we do them a solid by taking the contract on at full price for like Bordeleau and a 3rd. Hell no to paying a premium price.

Yep I might up that 3rd to NJD 2nd but even then I’m hesitant. I might be willing to do Gushchin instead of Bordeleau or either of those picks.

 

[TheBeard]

I probably wouldn't be willing to give up Bystedt or Edstrom plus the PIT 1st but I would trade any one of those assets for Cernak. Cernak is a good big young RHD, those guys are rare and valuable. The only concern I would have is that his physical style might take a toll and age poorly but considering he is only 26 I would consider it.

Cernak is a 27 year old with injury concerns, making over 5 for the next six years and with a NTC followed by a MNTC.

No thanks.

 

[Roasted Nuts]

All of those Tampa guys have a ton of mileage from the cup runs. They would be good for guiding the young ones only.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

For sure. Only way that I am trying to "add" this year is if we win the draft lottery. Otherwise, you ride out another year and maybe take on short term bad contracts in exchange for draft compensation. Makes the youngsters still have to earn it and look more respectable while not damaging the long-term vision until you're able to secure that elite prospect.

If you get Celebrini, you can start to add to the roster just because you want to be able to capitalize on Year 3 of Celebrini/Smith ELCs to start to make a playoff push before they start to potentially cost a lot more money (or right as those new extensions kick in as you don't want to pay them large contracts and not be a playoff team).

Adding will make sense on some level with or without Celebrini but I agree with upping the aggressiveness of such adds with Celebrini. It's possible that Smith's inclusion to our roster is predicated on landing Celebrini. But with only six forwards signed for next year, if two more come from Smith and Celebrini, it makes sense to make splashes around them where possible. My issue with Cernak is that he's not going to prevent us from the problems that are plaguing the team at this stage. Yeah, he's an excellent defender but the Sharks problem is defending too much and you need puck-movers to ease that issue and Cernak is not so good at that part of things. But I'd still take him on if it meant getting rid of Burroughs and only forking over Tampa's 3rd or something later. Yeah the term isn't great and he'd probably decline as we got good but a shutdown guy on the 3rd pairing is still useful to a team like that with some championship experience.

Or as a possible scenario, maybe trading for Cernak makes our pitch to someone like Stamkos more appealing. Getting a Stamkos to play with Celebrini and/or Smith would be a huge boon for a rebuilding club. I get the odds are probably very minimal but it's an avenue worth exhausting, imo.

 

[Lebanezer]

All of those Tampa guys have a ton of mileage from the cup runs. They would be good for guiding the young ones only.

Covid shortened seasons help keep the mileage down.

 

[coooldude]

Or as a possible scenario, maybe trading for Cernak makes our pitch to someone like Stamkos more appealing. Getting a Stamkos to play with Celebrini and/or Smith would be a huge boon for a rebuilding club. I get the odds are probably very minimal but it's an avenue worth exhausting, imo.

I don't know Tampa well, but I'm guessing if they're rushing to offload Cernak before the NTC kicks in, it's maybe to make some space for keeping Stammer.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I don't know Tampa well, but I'm guessing if they're rushing to offload Cernak before the NTC kicks in, it's maybe to make some space for keeping Stammer.

Possibly but it may not be enough anyways. Tampa is pretty tight up against it w/o keeping Stammer right now with 12.5 mil in cap space with nine forwards signed for next year. They will still need to get another two or three forwards and two defensemen while finding a way to be more competitive with teams like Florida.

 

[Juxtaposer]

I don't know Tampa well, but I'm guessing if they're rushing to offload Cernak before the NTC kicks in, it's maybe to make some space for keeping Stammer.

The funniest situation is the Bolts desperately offloading Cernak to the Sharks for next to nothing in order to make room for signing Stamkos, except Stamkos doesn’t want to sign with the Bolts anyway because he holds a grudge against the GM for not offering him an extension last summer and doesn’t see the Bolts going anywhere anymore. Then he signs with the Sharks.