Speculation: 2023-24-25 Sharks Roster Discussion

[PattyLafontaine]

No interest in Cernak. It doesn't make sense. Sure his AVV is nice but he's injury prone and his advanced stats are not good and his advanced playoff stats are even worse albeit a limited sample.

 

[sharski]

That hit was legal, DW then got a fine for calling them out. lmao good times

This is when it stopped being a conspiracy theory that the league hates the sharks and became official league policy

 

[Hodge]

No interest in Cernak. It doesn't make sense. Sure his AVV is nice but he's injury prone and his advanced stats are not good and his advanced playoff stats are even worse albeit a limited sample.

He played 20 minutes a night on back to back Stanley Cup champions. At some point you have to discount the advanced stats if his actual performance is earning him that much ice time on an incredible team.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

He played 20 minutes a night on back to back Stanley Cup champions. At some point you have to discount the advanced stats if his actual performance is earning him that much ice time on an incredible team.

I tend to agree but I just don't think I'd pay the price you're willing to pay for him when he isn't going to address what is probably this team's biggest issue out of many issues. Cernak is a good defender but he's not a great puck-mover and the Sharks road to competing again is through managing the puck and being better at that by a long shot. Cernak is probably better at that than anyone we got but he's not on average going to stop the Sharks from getting hemmed in on a nightly basis.

If we can get him for a 3rd round pick or later or a prospect the team has soured on for whatever reason, okay. Paying #14 for Cernak is way too much when we still need to spend draft capital on ourselves...especially on defense.

 

[PattyLafontaine]

He played 20 minutes a night on back to back Stanley Cup champions. At some point you have to discount the advanced stats if his actual performance is earning him that much ice time on an incredible team.

Sure, but one can play on a Stanley cup champion, but you sitll have to wonder how much he carried versus getting carried. Not every player on a Stanley cup champion is a "good" player.

The issue here is that he's got a long term contract and the Sharks still have no identity.

 

[TheBeard]

Sure, but one can play on a Stanley cup champion, but you sitll have to wonder how much he carried versus getting carried. Not every player on a Stanley cup champion is a "good" player.

The issue here is that he's got a long term contract and the Sharks still have no idenify.

I imagine here he'd be like Mario Ferraro and if you put Mario on those teams he'd be Cernak

 

[Hodge]

I tend to agree but I just don't think I'd pay the price you're willing to pay for him when he isn't going to address what is probably this team's biggest issue out of many issues. Cernak is a good defender but he's not a great puck-mover and the Sharks road to competing again is through managing the puck and being better at that by a long shot. Cernak is probably better at that than anyone we got but he's not on average going to stop the Sharks from getting hemmed in on a nightly basis.

If we can get him for a 3rd round pick or later or a prospect the team has soured on for whatever reason, okay. Paying #14 for Cernak is way too much when we still need to spend draft capital on ourselves...especially on defense.

It's reasonable to think it's too early in the rebuild to pay that sort of price for a guy in his mid 20s but I would argue actual in zone defending is our biggest issue and Cernak definitely addresses that. Of course no single player is going to turn that around himself.

3rd round pick for an established 26yo top 4 defenseman on that contract is absurd. Tampa will want to replenish all those draft picks they've dealt away if they trade Cernak. Maybe PIT 1st + our 2nd could do it if you don't want to trade a prospect.

 

[TheBeard]

It's reasonable to think it's too early in the rebuild to pay that sort of price for a guy in his mid 20s but I would argue actual in zone defending is our biggest issue and Cernak definitely addresses that. Of course no single player is going to turn that around himself.

3rd round pick for an established 26yo top 4 defenseman on that contract is absurd. Tampa will want to replenish all those draft picks they've dealt away if they trade Cernak. Maybe PIT 1st + our 2nd could do it if you don't want to trade a prospect.

If we're being technical, he's turning 27 in like 2 weeks.

 

[Hodge]

If we're being technical, he's turning 27 in like 2 weeks.

The important thing is he'll be 33 when the contract expires so there's a relatively low chance of it going underwater especially at that cap hit.

 

[Cas]

I would only be interested in Cernak if he was packaged with two 1sts or a 1st + 2nd + decent prospect - essentially a massive overpayment. That's not going to happen even if Tampa had any 1sts left to trade.

Cernak will not be a key contributor on the next good Sharks team. He will probably be an anchor we're hoping to get rid of.

 

[TheBeard]

The important thing is he'll be 33 when the contract expires so there's a relatively low chance of it going underwater especially at that cap hit.

Most I would give up is two 2nd to be honest, but that's just me and frankly, considering where we pick, how well TB does in later rounds and the fact they're desperately in need of prospects/picks and to shed salary. I wouldn't be surprised if that's more than enough.

 

[gaucholoco3]

I wonder if Benning would have more value to TB.

TB 3rd, Benning, Guschin/Bordaleau might be enough. I would be willing to upgrade the pick to one of the 2nd round picks and upgrade the prospect to either Bystedt or Edstrom.

I don’t want to give up 14 because there is a good chance of getting a prospect better than Musty which would fit the Sharks timeline better.

 

[Hodge]

Most I would give up is two 2nd to be honest, but that's just me and frankly, considering where we pick, how well TB does in later rounds and the fact they're desperately in need of prospects/picks and to shed salary. I wouldn't be surprised if that's more than enough.

Depends on how desperate they are to keep Stamkos. It's also possible they would prefer to trade Cirelli since they're so thin at RD. Hell I'd be interested in him too. Another guy without any trade protection.

 

[Cas]

Trading #14 for Cernak would be a "fire immediately" sort of move. Years-away rebuilding teams should not be trading mid-1sts for 27-year-old purely-defensive defensemen with sizable cap hits and term - that would be an astonishingly stupid move.

 

[OrrNumber4]

It's shocking to see the wide disparity in how people are valuing Cernak. Some people think he's worth a mid-first, and some won't take him without massive sweeteners.

 

[Cas]

It's shocking to see the wide disparity in how people are valuing Cernak. Some people think he's worth a mid-first, and some won't take him without massive sweeteners.

It's more how I would value Cernak, the asset, to us right now.

Cernak is a fine player. I'd love to have Cernak. However, he wouldn't make us that much better right now, because all he can do is help reduce (slightly) our being caved in, and cannot help us do anything else. He is also not cheap, is signed for a long time, and is too old - no player above the age of 25 is likely to be both effective and on the next good Sharks team. What we need are more lottery tickets to acquire younger players who might be part of that team.

Cernak is a fine player. Cernak is not a fine asset. Cernak is also an asset whose cost to acquire far outstrips his utility to a team in our position - I would consider literally any price paid for Cernak to be too much (yes, obviously we'd have to send something cheap back - give them a garbage prospect like Wiesblatt and/or a 6th or something).

However, that won't happen, because Tampa has nothing I would consider we could possibly want as a sweetener.

 

[Pavelski2112]

It's more how I would value Cernak, the asset, to us right now.

Cernak is a fine player. I'd love to have Cernak. However, he wouldn't make us that much better right now, because all he can do is help reduce (slightly) our being caved in, and cannot help us do anything else. He is also not cheap, is signed for a long time, and is too old - no player above the age of 25 is likely to be both effective and on the next good Sharks team. What we need are more lottery tickets to acquire younger players who might be part of that team.

Cernak is a fine player. Cernak is not a fine asset. Cernak is also an asset whose cost to acquire far outstrips his utility to a team in our position - I would consider literally any price paid for Cernak to be too much (yes, obviously we'd have to send something cheap back - give them a garbage prospect like Wiesblatt and/or a 6th or something).

However, that won't happen, because Tampa has nothing I would consider we could possibly want as a sweetener.

Exactly, Cernak is the type of player you add for depth once you build a core, not as a vet to insulate youth

 

[themelkman]

My thoughts would be do not spend a single asset on someone over 26, especially one with a long term deal that will go bad within 5 years

 

[Hangemhigh]

The important thing is he'll be 33 when the contract expires so there's a relatively low chance of it going underwater especially at that cap hit.

Important for me is he will probably be over 30 by the time the Sharks can use him for playoff games. He wouldn't be much help the next 2 years, so no need to overpay.

 

[Sharkz4Fun]

I'm so confused. Cernak and Rutta are the same player, and one is enough. Like, what?

 

[coooldude]

I'm so confused. Cernak and Rutta are the same player, and one is enough. Like, what?

We have nothing to do until next Tuesday.

Because of this, I will take your post one step further. Based on The Athletic's player cards (as objective of data as I'm willing to look for), Cernak played to a $2.1M salary value this year, meaning he was worth 3.1M less than his contract.

Meanwhile Rutta was paid $2.8M but was only playing to $0.8M level (league min), so he was worth $2M less than his contract.

If we're going on straight up player value, to the team on the ice, Cernak is more valuable. But if you're talking about being less bad in terms of destroyed value, Cernak is, amazingly, the worse asset.

I think we all agree that if we want to be slightly less dogshit next year (which may be the only realistic goal), we need to UFA sign or trade for some defensemen that can stop plays in the D zone and ideally also make a play with the puck once they do that, at least more than our corps did this year. Mukh may be ready, but he'll be young and volatile. We need to move out at least 1 or 2 more of our dudes or else we'll see more of the same next year.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

It's reasonable to think it's too early in the rebuild to pay that sort of price for a guy in his mid 20s but I would argue actual in zone defending is our biggest issue and Cernak definitely addresses that. Of course no single player is going to turn that around himself.

3rd round pick for an established 26yo top 4 defenseman on that contract is absurd. Tampa will want to replenish all those draft picks they've dealt away if they trade Cernak. Maybe PIT 1st + our 2nd could do it if you don't want to trade a prospect.

Puck management consistently contributed to increased defensive zone time and then wearing out and giving up goals.

If Tampa wants or needs to dump Cernak, they shouldn’t give them any meaningful futures while they’re rebuilding. If all we have as meaningful youth in our org is Celebrini, Smith, and Eklund, Cernak isn’t going to do anything of worth for the Sharks because they’ll never compete.

 

[Shark Finn]

PIT 1st + Bystedt/Edstrom/Halttunen tier prospect. He's only 26 and on a great contract that will look like a downright steal when the cap is 90+ million.

The only good thing about this proposal is that you attracted attention and generated discussion with it.

 

[Le Rosbeef]

Trading #14 for Cernak would be a "fire immediately" sort of move.

People need to relax. We're not going to trade 14 for Erik Cernak, or anyone else.

 

[tiburon12]

I like the idea of Cernak, but Tampa doesn't need to move him. They have 12M for at least 2D and 3F next year, so if they are going to trade Cernak they probably want 2 players to balance the cap hit. Since we don't have that, we could trade them Labanc + Barabanov + addison's signing rights. I bet they could get all 3 singed in Tampa for Cernak's 5.2.

Aside, if the Sharks get #1OA they should offer sheet Perfetti @ 3x4.2. He'll probably sign it and the Jets would likely want to use that money on D instead. Plus that 2nd will be 33rd and will be enticing for the jets.