Speculation: 2023-24-25-26 Sharks Roster Discussion

[LadyStanley]

I'm not sure I'd say Edmonton is smart.

Disastrous Moves:

You left out the Old boys in the front office, the owner interference and the revolving door of the coach's office.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Bader's model ranked Frondell over Schaefer

It is not useful

A statistical model such as Bader’s is useful for identifying sleeper picks, which you then have to actually scout.

That’s it.

I get it. But also, when a very useful model like Bader's says he's a lock to be a star, it's kind of silly to compare him to Eklund.

I'm not even trying to justify the selection. I go back and forth between wanting him and Reid at 2. But if you're going to point to SHL stats to make a silly comparison to Eklund, I'll have to use stats to combat that.

I imagine you've probably watched more Stenberg than I have. Do you really see Eklund in him? I see a guy who drives to the middle much better, hence my confidence in his ability to be a star at the next level.

To be clear, I do think he’s likely going to be better than Eklund. And my stance has never been that Stenberg is a bad player or that he doesn’t have an argument as BPA in a vacuum. It’s always been that the marginal improvement going from Eklund to Stenberg is not worth giving up a chance at a top pairing RHD, when we already have our first line sorted out and Eklund isn’t going to return a top pairing defenseman that fits this team’s timeline as the best piece in a package. I think Stenberg will be a regular 70-80 point scorer who brings some two-way value to the table. But he is 5’11” and by no means Marian Hossa—I think Stenberg’s two-way ability is drastically overstated because of how much better he is than McKenna, a literal defensive zero, in that regard. So if he’s a 5’11” winger without Selke defense, great speed, or high-end goal-scoring who likely tops out at a PPG… we don’t need that player. Not that he wouldn’t be useful, but that sort of player is worth magnitudes less than what Chase Reid is if he hits an above average outcome.

When it comes to the concept of “BPA”, I think people are simply ignoring the fact that if you have a 5’11” non-sniper winger and a 6’3” offensive RHD of the same caliber, the defenseman is going to influence the game much more. So while Reid might not be ‘better’ than Stenberg, I believe he will absolutely be more valuable.

As a thought experiment, if a team put Ivar Stenberg up for auction, what do you think the best defenseman under 25 he could return in a trade is, one for one?

 

[gaucholoco3]

A statistical model such as Bader’s is useful for identifying sleeper picks, which you then have to actually scout.

That’s it.


To be clear, I do think he’s likely going to be better than Eklund. And my stance has never been that Stenberg is a bad player or that he doesn’t have an argument as BPA in a vacuum. It’s always been that the marginal improvement going from Eklund to Stenberg is not worth giving up a chance at a top pairing RHD, when we already have our first line sorted out and Eklund isn’t going to return a top pairing defenseman that fits this team’s timeline as the best piece in a package. I think Stenberg will be a regular 70-80 point scorer who brings some two-way value to the table. But he is 5’11” and by no means Marian Hossa—I think Stenberg’s two-way ability is drastically overstated because of how much better he is than McKenna, a literal defensive zero, in that regard. So if he’s a 5’11” winger without Selke defense, great speed, or high-end goal-scoring who likely tops out at a PPG… we don’t need that player. Not that he wouldn’t be useful, but that sort of player is worth magnitudes less than what Chase Reid is if he hits an above average outcome.

When it comes to the concept of “BPA”, I think people are simply ignoring the fact that if you have a 5’11” non-sniper winger and a 6’3” offensive RHD of the same caliber, the defenseman is going to influence the game much more. So while Reid might not be ‘better’ than Stenberg, I believe he will absolutely be more valuable.

As a thought experiment, if a team put Ivar Stenberg up for auction, what do you think the best defenseman under 25 he could return in a trade is, one for one?

This is great explanation of why Stenberg doesn’t make sense for the Sharks.

I want to add the idea of “best” player available is flawed. Even though it is a completely different sport I will use the NFL as an example. A ILB or G or S might be the absolute best player at their position and therefore be the “best” available player. However they are never chosen over decent QB, WR, OT, or Edge because those positions are so much more valuable.

A undersized wing would literally have to be Kutcherov to have the same value as a middle of the pack top 4 RD. Neither of Mckena or Stenberg are Kutcherov. I would also argue that Kutcherov is not more valuable than any of the top 20 RD in the league because of how easy it would be to replace his skill set in the aggregate than a top 20 RD.

RHD especially those with size that can move the puck are literally the most scarce asset in the entire NHL. The only position that while less scarce but more valuable is the franchise 200ft ppg 1C which thankfully the Sharks already have 1 and potentially another on the roster.

Just pick Reid or maybe Verhoeff and call it a day. Even better if a trade back can get anything if they can still pick Reid.

 

[Shark Finn]

This is great explanation of why Stenberg doesn’t make sense for the Sharks.

I want to add the idea of “best” player available is flawed. Even though it is a completely different sport I will use the NFL as an example. A ILB or G or S might be the absolute best player at their position and therefore be the “best” available player. However they are never chosen over decent QB, WR, OT, or Edge because those positions are so much more valuable.

A undersized wing would literally have to be Kutcherov to have the same value as a middle of the pack top 4 RD. Neither of Mckena or Stenberg are Kutcherov. I would also argue that Kutcherov is not more valuable than any of the top 20 RD in the league because of how easy it would be to replace his skill set in the aggregate than a top 20 RD.

RHD especially those with size that can move the puck are literally the most scarce asset in the entire NHL. The only position that while less scarce but more valuable is the franchise 200ft ppg 1C which thankfully the Sharks already have 1 and potentially another on the roster.

Just pick Reid or maybe Verhoeff and call it a day. Even better if a trade back can get anything if they can still pick Reid.

To be fair, Kucherov wasn't thought to be "Kucherov" either when he was picked in the second round in 2011.

And I don't think the statement "A undersized wing would literally have to be Kutcherov to have the same value as a middle of the pack top 4 RD" holds value, as Kucherov literally just won his second Hart. That's way more valuable than a middle of the pack top 4 RD.

And I'm not saying that Stenberg = Kucherov by any measure nor advocating picking him either. Just mentioning that (a) Kucherov provides immense value to their team.

 

[STL Shark]

To be fair, Kucherov wasn't thought to be "Kucherov" either when he was picked in the second round in 2011.

And I don't think the statement "A undersized wing would literally have to be Kutcherov to have the same value as a middle of the pack top 4 RD" holds value, as Kucherov literally just won his second Hart. That's way more valuable than a middle of the pack top 4 RD.

And I'm not saying that Stenberg = Kucherov by any measure nor advocating picking him either. Just mentioning that (a) Kucherov provides immense value to their team.

He put up a bunch of points, but how did it contribute to winning? When your best player(s) are on the wing, you don't go far. To have the same effect on winning, a winger has to be out of this world elite. Even Kaprizov is at that level and his team has never gone anywhere because they lack in other areas.

The thought process should be most valuable asset available rather than best player available. Wingers are easily acquired in other ways while D-Men are not. That is the long and short of it.

 

[OversKy]

So his floor is a guy whose draft year SHL goalscoring he matched?

Don't think your insinuating goals are all that matters but im also not exactly sure what you're getting at. If it's the plain English you wrote, yeah it would be a surprising and disappointing result for him to end up a 60 pt winger with good defensive value. He's probably the safest prospect of the draft imo.

 

[Shark Finn]

He put up a bunch of points, but how did it contribute to winning? When your best player(s) are on the wing, you don't go far. To have the same effect on winning, a winger has to be out of this world elite. Even Kaprizov is at that level and his team has never gone anywhere because they lack in other areas.

The thought process should be most valuable asset available rather than best player available. Wingers are easily acquired in other ways while D-Men are not. That is the long and short of it.

As I said, this wasn't me advocating Stenberg or wingers, just stating that Kucherov isn't a good comparable at all. I get your point and agree.

 

[sampler]

He put up a bunch of points, but how did it contribute to winning? When your best player(s) are on the wing, you don't go far. To have the same effect on winning, a winger has to be out of this world elite. Even Kaprizov is at that level and his team has never gone anywhere because they lack in other areas.

The thought process should be most valuable asset available rather than best player available. Wingers are easily acquired in other ways while D-Men are not. That is the long and short of it.

What? Bolts won two cups with kucherov as a key piece. Ek65 won the Norris, sharks were last. Werensky won Norris, nothing for team. Makar, the epitome of top D, one cup. This year, every Norris finalists will not win.

Top D are huge. Very huge. But I don’t think devaluing wings to say that they neee 100 pts to be worthwhile is a good idea. All five guys on the ice and the goalie matter. The reason I value a top D is simply because they play more minutes than a top forward.

If Ried had an equal chance of becoming a top pair D as Stenberg has becoming a top line W, I’d be all for it Reid. But from what I’ve read and seen, that doesn’t seem to be the case. Stenberg seems far more likely to be a top line W than ried a top pair D.

Personally I would also rather Reid but only after a trade down. If we pick at 2, pick stenberg.

 

[weastern bias]

As a thought experiment, if a team put Ivar Stenberg up for auction, what do you think the best defenseman under 25 he could return in a trade is, one for one?

Apparently, the answer is Tom Willander

 

[sampler]

A statistical model such as Bader’s is useful for identifying sleeper picks, which you then have to actually scout.

That’s it.


To be clear, I do think he’s likely going to be better than Eklund. And my stance has never been that Stenberg is a bad player or that he doesn’t have an argument as BPA in a vacuum. It’s always been that the marginal improvement going from Eklund to Stenberg is not worth giving up a chance at a top pairing RHD, when we already have our first line sorted out and Eklund isn’t going to return a top pairing defenseman that fits this team’s timeline as the best piece in a package. I think Stenberg will be a regular 70-80 point scorer who brings some two-way value to the table. But he is 5’11” and by no means Marian Hossa—I think Stenberg’s two-way ability is drastically overstated because of how much better he is than McKenna, a literal defensive zero, in that regard. So if he’s a 5’11” winger without Selke defense, great speed, or high-end goal-scoring who likely tops out at a PPG… we don’t need that player. Not that he wouldn’t be useful, but that sort of player is worth magnitudes less than what Chase Reid is if he hits an above average outcome.

When it comes to the concept of “BPA”, I think people are simply ignoring the fact that if you have a 5’11” non-sniper winger and a 6’3” offensive RHD of the same caliber, the defenseman is going to influence the game much more. So while Reid might not be ‘better’ than Stenberg, I believe he will absolutely be more valuable.

As a thought experiment, if a team put Ivar Stenberg up for auction, what do you think the best defenseman under 25 he could return in a trade is, one for one?

Hard to say. Who would Reid get?

WTO answer the stenberg question, replace stenberg with smith. Similar size. Both now wingers.,Frankly, I think stenberg is significant better though at both ends…

So who could smith (or mighty above smith)?

 

[Grinner]

Apparently, the answer is Tom Willander

Says who?

 

[Cas]

He put up a bunch of points, but how did it contribute to winning? When your best player(s) are on the wing, you don't go far. To have the same effect on winning, a winger has to be out of this world elite. Even Kaprizov is at that level and his team has never gone anywhere because they lack in other areas.

The thought process should be most valuable asset available rather than best player available. Wingers are easily acquired in other ways while D-Men are not. That is the long and short of it.

I think Kucherov's points contributed hugely to winning, which is a big reason why he has two rings (in postseasons where he led all players in scoring), two other finals appearances, and was on his ninth consecutive playoff team this season. Kucherov is so good as a scoring winger that he would be a far more valuable asset than whatever Reid is likely to become (because I don't expect Reid or Verhoff or whoever to turn into Makar).

If I legitimately thought Stenberg was going to turn into Kucherov, I would personally kidnap Grier and force him to draft Stenberg, a la Misery. I don't think that's a likely outcome, though.

It's real easy to hyperbolize.

 

[Sharksfan66]

To be clear, I do think he’s likely going to be better than Eklund. And my stance has never been that Stenberg is a bad player or that he doesn’t have an argument as BPA in a vacuum. It’s always been that the marginal improvement going from Eklund to Stenberg is not worth giving up a chance at a top pairing RHD, when we already have our first line sorted out and Eklund isn’t going to return a top pairing defenseman that fits this team’s timeline as the best piece in a package. I think Stenberg will be a regular 70-80 point scorer who brings some two-way value to the table. But he is 5’11” and by no means Marian Hossa—I think Stenberg’s two-way ability is drastically overstated because of how much better he is than McKenna, a literal defensive zero, in that regard. So if he’s a 5’11” winger without Selke defense, great speed, or high-end goal-scoring who likely tops out at a PPG… we don’t need that player. Not that he wouldn’t be useful, but that sort of player is worth magnitudes less than what Chase Reid is if he hits an above average outcome.

I think you're seriously underselling Stenberg. When I watch Stenberg, I see game breaker. In the same way everyone said Celebrini had no single stand out trait leading up to his draft but he was just effective, I see it with him (no I don't expect him to be Celebrini level).

Not as an appeal to authority, but to keep this from becoming a long post, I find myself lining up with Chris Peters here if you watch about 2 minutes from where this picks up:

When it comes to the concept of “BPA”, I think people are simply ignoring the fact that if you have a 5’11” non-sniper winger and a 6’3” offensive RHD of the same caliber, the defenseman is going to influence the game much more. So while Reid might not be ‘better’ than Stenberg, I believe he will absolutely be more valuable.

As I said in my previous post, I go back and forth on who we should pick between Stenberg and Reid.

The way I see it: Stenberg could end up anywhere from Eklund to Zetterberg, while Reid could end up anywhere between Demers to Werenski. If Grier and co think Reid will hit his ceiling, I hope they take him, not because he'd be the BPA but because he's the best fit for our team.

So I'm not saying I'm against Reid at 2, rather I disagree with 1) your assessment of Stenberg and now 2) your definition of BPA. You seem to be describing a philosophy of "best fit possible" or "maximum value to our team." I think there's a solid argument to be made that Reid is the best fit possible for our team, even as I struggle to turn my nose at a potential Zetterberg. As I said, I could go either way.

But think about this...if Celebrini keeps tracking along Crosby lines, do you all remember what Zetterberg did to Crosby? I don't think it's crazy that Stenberg will do the same (certainly no crazier than saying Reid could be Werenski).

As a thought experiment, if a team put Ivar Stenberg up for auction, what do you think the best defenseman under 25 he could return in a trade is, one for one?

That's a hard thought experiment, because it's unheard of to trade a guy right after drafting them, but assuming Stenberg comes into the league and has a Celebrini-like rookie season (note: I said rookie, not sophomore), I could see a world in which he is the centerpiece of a Seider deal. Can't say the same Reid even if he puts up a Werenski D+1 season at Michigan State (which again, is my expectation, so I'm not trying to frame the argument in my favor here).

 

[gaucholoco3]

To be fair, Kucherov wasn't thought to be "Kucherov" either when he was picked in the second round in 2011.

And I don't think the statement "A undersized wing would literally have to be Kutcherov to have the same value as a middle of the pack top 4 RD" holds value, as Kucherov literally just won his second Hart. That's way more valuable than a middle of the pack top 4 RD.

And I'm not saying that Stenberg = Kucherov by any measure nor advocating picking him either. Just mentioning that (a) Kucherov provides immense value to their team.

Kutcherov didn’t win the heart because he is the most valuable player to his team. He won the Hart because he put up video game numbers and counting stats.

MacKinnon was a Hart finalist and it was clearly shown in the playoffs that he is definitely not the most valuable player to his team.

 

[67 others]

I think you're seriously underselling Stenberg. When I watch Stenberg, I see game breaker. In the same way everyone said Celebrini had no single stand out trait leading up to his draft but he was just effective, I see it with him (no I don't expect him to be Celebrini level).

A few scouts did indeed compare Celebrini to Crosby, although many undersold him

McKenzie and Pronman did.

 

[Cas]

Kutcherov didn’t win the heart because he is the most valuable player to his team. He won the Hart because he put up video game numbers and counting stats.

MacKinnon was a Hart finalist and it was clearly shown in the playoffs that he is definitely not the most valuable player to his team.

I think taking awards to be particularly meaningful is a mistake, especially when people put all sorts of different meanings onto a collection of bland platitudes that are supposed to be the "definition" of the award.

I also don't think a tiny sample size of games is in any way meaningful to demonstrate a players' "value to his team".

 

[Star Platinum]

To be fair, Kucherov wasn't thought to be "Kucherov" either when he was picked in the second round in 2011.

And I don't think the statement "A undersized wing would literally have to be Kutcherov to have the same value as a middle of the pack top 4 RD" holds value, as Kucherov literally just won his second Hart. That's way more valuable than a middle of the pack top 4 RD.

And I'm not saying that Stenberg = Kucherov by any measure nor advocating picking him either. Just mentioning that (a) Kucherov provides immense value to their team.

I have no idea how good Stenberg can be in the league. I really don't. He could be elite or he could be okay. I very much doubt that he's going to outright bust.

But I do know for a fact that our blueline is goddamn awful and that drafting Stenberg won't make it better.

 

[SJS1991]

Sounds like Nurse will likely go east and if he stays in the west… think more Kings than sharks.

If that’s the case this then makes Rielly more likely the target for SJ as their “veteran”.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I have no idea how good Stenberg can be in the league. I really don't. He could be elite or he could be okay. I very much doubt that he's going to outright bust.

But I do know for a fact that our blueline is goddamn awful and that drafting Stenberg won't make it better.

Not directly but getting players that are defensively aware and capable sure as shit will help the team defensively when we have two top nine wingers that aren't good defensively and one that is largely unproven in Chernyshov. When we start playing with leads, we can't be resorting to defending leads with guys like Goodrow as a regular like we have.

 

[Bizz]

Sounds like Nurse will likely go east and if he stays in the west… think more Kings than sharks.

If that’s the case this then makes Rielly more likely the target for SJ as their “veteran”.

Here's a better idea. How about neither?

 

[SJS1991]

Here's a better idea. How about neither?

I get this sentiment but most had the same when it came to Miller last year. You get these guys in better situations they can pop for a new team.

Not saying Nurse or Rielly would do that in SJ. But as many have stated before, out side of trading for a proven good defenseman… SJ will have to take fliers on guys and have to make calculated risky trades and signings.

 

[Juxtaposer]

I think you're seriously underselling Stenberg. When I watch Stenberg, I see game breaker. In the same way everyone said Celebrini had no single stand out trait leading up to his draft but he was just effective, I see it with him (no I don't expect him to be Celebrini level).

People underestimated Celebrini because he was doing literally unprecedented things as a draft eligible in the NCAA. It wasn’t just the points, like Eichel or Fantilli, it was the way he was getting them. He played like a grown man as a 17 year old. The details of his game, defensively, on the boarded, how he used his teammates, none of it was anything scouts knew how to evaluate. And frankly, I think the fact that he was so far and away the best player in the draft made people not think too hard about how good he actually was.

And even while being underrated, he was still being compared to a guy who would have been a first ballot HOFer if not for injury in Jonathan Toews. He was getting some Crosby-lite comparables even before hitting the NHL. And Stenberg is getting what, Lucas Raymond? Come on. Stenberg isn’t even half the prospect Celebrini was.

Not as an appeal to authority, but to keep this from becoming a long post, I find myself lining up with Chris Peters here if you watch about 2 minutes from where this picks up:

I have a lot of respect for Peters so his opinion is not something I take lightly. Which is why I think it’s very telling that he thinks that Stenberg has to be a consistent 80 point guy to be more valuable than a 50 point Reid.

I don’t care about “certainty” or “safety” with this pick. Does Stenberg have a higher floor than Reid? Sure, probably. But I don’t value what Stenberg’s floor is anymore than Reid’s because we already have Eklund, which is allegedly Stenberg’s floor. Picking another Eklund at #2 would be just as disastrous as picking Reid and him only being a bottom pairing PP specialist. You don’t play it conservative when you’re trying to build a contender. You shoot for the moon. And Reid’s upside is higher.

As I said in my previous post, I go back and forth on who we should pick between Stenberg and Reid.

The way I see it: Stenberg could end up anywhere from Eklund to Zetterberg, while Reid could end up anywhere between Demers to Werenski. If Grier and co think Reid will hit his ceiling, I hope they take him, not because he'd be the BPA but because he's the best fit for our team.

So I'm not saying I'm against Reid at 2, rather I disagree with 1) your assessment of Stenberg and now 2) your definition of BPA. You seem to be describing a philosophy of "best fit possible" or "maximum value to our team." I think there's a solid argument to be made that Reid is the best fit possible for our team, even as I struggle to turn my nose at a potential Zetterberg. As I said, I could go either way.

But think about this...if Celebrini keeps tracking along Crosby lines, do you all remember what Zetterberg did to Crosby? I don't think it's crazy that Stenberg will do the same (certainly no crazier than saying Reid could be Werenski).

I do actually think it’s much crazier to compare Stenberg to Henrik freaking Zetterberg than it is to compare Reid to Werenski, to be honest. Zetterberg was a Selke-nominated center who was a regular PPG player in a much lower scoring era than we’re in now. Stenberg is going to be none of those things.

And I’ve never even compared Reid to Werenski, FWIW.

That's a hard thought experiment, because it's unheard of to trade a guy right after drafting them, but assuming Stenberg comes into the league and has a Celebrini-like rookie season (note: I said rookie, not sophomore), I could see a world in which he is the centerpiece of a Seider deal. Can't say the same Reid even if he puts up a Werenski D+1 season at Michigan State (which again, is my expectation, so I'm not trying to frame the argument in my favor here).

I’m sorry, the idea that Stenberg could be a centerpiece to a Seider trade is downright laughable. Go on, go propose that on the Wings forum and see what kind of reaction you get. Never mind that he’s not having a Celebrini-like rookie season, yet another absurd thing to suggest. Not even Ivan Demidov or Beckett Sennecke had Celebrini-like rookie seasons in the D+2 years, and they’re better prospects than Stenberg.

Isn’t the Hughes trade proof enough that if a team is trading an elite defenseman, they want an elite defense prospect in return? No one is trading a 6’3” RHD who finished top-5 in Norris votes at age 24 for a small winger. Absolutely ludicrous to suggest.

 

[SanJoseRedditor]

Apparently, the answer is Tom Willander

Haha.

To answer your question more seriously, I think it's Byram and then Nemec. I don't think Mo Seider or Jake Sanderson are available.

 

[Zarzh]

I get this sentiment but most had the same when it came to Miller last year. You get these guys in better situations they can pop for a new team.

Not saying Nurse or Rielly would do that in SJ. But as many have stated before, out side of trading for a proven good defenseman… SJ will have to take fliers on guys and have to make calculated risky trades and signings.

Rielly is a negative asset to building a defense, he's an offense only defenseman who isn't good enough offensively.

 

[SJS1991]

Rielly is a negative asset to building a defense, he's an offense only defenseman who isn't good enough offensively.

The play for Rielly would be upgrading Klingberg and having a defenseman that can get the puck up to the forwards quickly.

I know he sucks defensively… so does a lot of Sharks players.

I hold no illusions of Rielly being some savior on the back end. He is a controlled asset to replace Klingberg’s role.