Rumor: 2023-2024 Trade Rumors and Free Agency: Offseason Edition

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Avs are one of the teams that needs space. Tossing Landy out for simplicity, they are at 62.5m. Byram and Newhook combined are likely around 7m. So 69.5 or $14m in space. That is to fill 1-2D and 7-8F spots. Landy's LTIR gives some breathing room... but it isn't like the Avs are swimming in space either. Say a 2C costs $5m in cap... You're down to $9m for roughly 8 spots. It is possible to fill out the roster, but the Avs are not exactly capable of taking on a ton of money from strapped teams.
 
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I really don't think the Avs will trade Girard. He's loved in the locker room, and they're selling a 25 year old defenseman at a low. He looked awesome later in the season imo, and it would be bad asset management to throw him in a trade right now.

The real weapon for the Avs right now is cap space. Take advantage of a team with no cap space, and pick someone up with 1-2 years left on their deal. Plenty of playoff teams with good players that need space.

The Avs have already shown when everyone is healthy Girard is on the bottom pairing. And at 5 million he's just too expensive for a bottom pairing guy. I'll be pretty surprised if Girard is still on the Avs come training camp.

They need top six forwards bad and Girard's cap hit is probably the easiest to let go of to get it.
 
I really don't think the Avs will trade Girard. He's loved in the locker room, and they're selling a 25 year old defenseman at a low. He looked awesome later in the season imo, and it would be bad asset management to throw him in a trade right now.

The real weapon for the Avs right now is cap space. Take advantage of a team with no cap space, and pick someone up with 1-2 years left on their deal. Plenty of playoff teams with good players that need space.
How?


If they don't move Girard, they are one of those cap strapped teams...

Moving G and replacing him with a ~1M 3rd pairing D would give them the bit of wiggle room to make such a trade. Without trading G, they simply have no room to do anything outside of getting a 2C for ~$4M.
 
Avs are one of the teams that needs space. Tossing Landy out for simplicity, they are at 62.5m. Byram and Newhook combined are likely around 7m. So 69.5 or $14m in space. That is to fill 1-2D and 7-8F spots. Landy's LTIR gives some breathing room... but it isn't like the Avs are swimming in space either. Say a 2C costs $5m in cap... You're down to $9m for roughly 8 spots. It is possible to fill out the roster, but the Avs are not exactly capable of taking on a ton of money from strapped teams.
I think they'll have to move more money out still. They're probably banking on Myers and Malinski being ready. I can see both starting regardless if they're ready too.
 
I think they'll have to move more money out still. They're probably banking on Myers and Malinski being ready. I can see both starting regardless if they're ready too.
Yeah I think somebody is likely to have to move out. G is the easy name, but kinda hard to get proper value for. Beyond him, you're getting into elevated levels of pain.

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Avs need to make a decision on some young guys. If I'm management, in particular, Newhook and Meyers haven't shown nearly enough to earn another season-long look

I don't think Avs can entertain trading Girard unless they think they have a shot at keeping Toews long term. If Toews is walking, Girard will be badly needed
 
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The real weapon for the Avs right now is cap space. Take advantage of a team with no cap space, and pick someone up with 1-2 years left on their deal. Plenty of playoff teams with good players that need space.
Avs are a team with little cap space. 10 skaters signed, and one of them is MacDermid.

Avs are one of the teams that needs space. Tossing Landy out for simplicity, they are at 62.5m. Byram and Newhook combined are likely around 7m. So 69.5 or $14m in space. That is to fill 1-2D and 7-8F spots. Landy's LTIR gives some breathing room... but it isn't like the Avs are swimming in space either. Say a 2C costs $5m in cap... You're down to $9m for roughly 8 spots. It is possible to fill out the roster, but the Avs are not exactly capable of taking on a ton of money from strapped teams.
Yes, they're going to need to clear a salary to do this effectively. They're not going to move Lehkonen or Nichushkin, so forget those.

That leaves Girard, Toews, or Manson. Manson doesn't likely bring back a quality 2C, so that leaves them with two options, really. Maybe they find a UFA 2C (that I don't see). Tough choices to be made here, for sure.

Unless they can commit to (and make work) Rantanen at 2C. Which would change everything. Not sure whether that ship has sailed. Probably has.
 
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Avs are a team with little cap space. 10 skaters signed, and one of them is MacDermid.


Yes, they're going to need to clear a salary to do this effectively. They're not going to move Lehkonen or Nichushkin, so forget those.

That leaves Girard, Toews, or Manson. Manson doesn't likely bring back a quality 2C, so that leaves them with two options, really.
They can't move Manson... he has a full NTC and about zero chance he has value right now. Nuke is the same. Ignoring the off ice, he has a full NMC. They can't be moved.

Which basically means Toews, G, Byram, or Lehky. Lehky should be on the table. I'm not saying move him, but I see situations where Lehky has more value than G. If Lehky moves the needle more for a center, then he should rightfully be on the block. His NTC doesn't start until July 1, so there is a tiny window for it, but a window. G is simply dependent on who values him at an appropriate level. Toews is a risky move for the next 2 seasons. Byram has the most value, but also probably the most risk in giving up.

In order of preference, I'd go G > Lehky > Toews = Byram. Those are really the only options for clearing salary.
 
Avs are one of the teams that needs space. Tossing Landy out for simplicity, they are at 62.5m. Byram and Newhook combined are likely around 7m. So 69.5 or $14m in space. That is to fill 1-2D and 7-8F spots. Landy's LTIR gives some breathing room... but it isn't like the Avs are swimming in space either. Say a 2C costs $5m in cap... You're down to $9m for roughly 8 spots. It is possible to fill out the roster, but the Avs are not exactly capable of taking on a ton of money from strapped teams.

Avs are a team with little cap space. 10 skaters signed, and one of them is MacDermid.


Yes, they're going to need to clear a salary to do this effectively. They're not going to move Lehkonen or Nichushkin, so forget those.

That leaves Girard, Toews, or Manson. Manson doesn't likely bring back a quality 2C, so that leaves them with two options, really. Maybe they find a UFA 2C (that I don't see). Tough choices to be made here, for sure.

Unless they can commit to (and make work) Rantanen at 2C. Which would change everything. Not sure whether that ship has sailed. Probably has.
Where is my math wrong ? I'm using Cap Friendly's tool and come to this :

Bare-bones before any moves :
Avs_01.jpg

Then let's say the Avs make the following moves/signings :
Avs_02.jpg


So even if you're trading Sammy G just draft picks. (I picked the Habs for fun but it doesn't matter, it can be any team that wants him and has the space)

Avs_03.jpg


With those moves, even with a 13th forward and 7th d-man in the lineup, the Avs would still have $11.5M in cap space with THREE spots at forward to fill :

Top-6 winger (approx. $5M)
3rd line Center (approx. $3M)
3rd line winger (appox. $3M)

So what am I missing here?
 
Where is my math wrong ? I'm using Cap Friendly's tool and come to this :

Bare-bones before any moves :
View attachment 718244
Then let's say the Avs make the following moves/signings :
View attachment 718245

So even if you're trading Sammy G just draft picks. (I picked the Habs for fun but it doesn't matter, it can be any team that wants him and has the space)

View attachment 718250

With those moves, even with a 13th forward and 7th d-man in the lineup, the Avs would still have $11.5M in cap space with THREE spots at forward to fill :

Top-6 winger (approx. $5M)
3rd line Center (approx. $3M)
3rd line winger (appox. $3M)

So what am I missing here?
You're math isn't wrong. You're pretty much illustrating that a cap clearing move needs made with the G for futures move. And you're assuming Byram below market by ~1.5m, not re-signing Newhook, and 100-250k low on the low end guys (could argue more since 1.25m is more of the going rate for guys the Avs sign). So a difference in assumptions and you cleared $5m with nothing coming back.
 
Where is my math wrong ? I'm using Cap Friendly's tool and come to this :

Bare-bones before any moves :
View attachment 718244
Then let's say the Avs make the following moves/signings :
View attachment 718245

So even if you're trading Sammy G just draft picks. (I picked the Habs for fun but it doesn't matter, it can be any team that wants him and has the space)

View attachment 718250

With those moves, even with a 13th forward and 7th d-man in the lineup, the Avs would still have $11.5M in cap space with THREE spots at forward to fill :

Top-6 winger (approx. $5M)
3rd line Center (approx. $3M)
3rd line winger (appox. $3M)

So what am I missing here?

Did you read any of the discussion or even the posts you quoted? They're talking about A) Not trading Girard, and B) Byram and Newhook signing for a combined $7M.


So in what you've outlined, both of those things are completely ignored.

If you don't trade Girard, and if Byram gets a more realistic ~$4.5M bridge. Right away that $10.9M(Not 11.5M, we lose $638k to bonus carryover penalty) becomes $4.6M. For a top six winger, 3C, and another 3rd line winger.
 
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Did you read any of the discussion or even the posts you quoted? They're talking about A) Not trading Girard, and B) Byram and Newhook signing for a combined $7M.


So in what you've outlined, both of those things are completely ignored.

If you don't trade Girard, and if Byram gets a more realistic ~$4.5M bridge. Right away that $10.9M(Not 11.5M) becomes $4.6M. For a top six winger, 3C, and another 3rd line winger.
I quoted those messages in response to the Avs not having a lot of cap space not specifically anything other than that.

I was legit asking a question if there was some sort of hidden bonus garbage cap space eater that I hadn't taken into account or wasn't aware of or something like that.

I figured that the numbers would be debated. Some people could argue that Byram at $3.25M is very low for a bridge and they might be right, I just don't believe he's earned more than that with the amount of hockey he's played over his first 3 years.

You're math isn't wrong. You're pretty much illustrating that a cap clearing move needs made with the G for futures move. And you're assuming Byram below market by ~1.5m, not re-signing Newhook, and 100-250k low on the low end guys (could argue more since 1.25m is more of the going rate for guys the Avs sign). So a difference in assumptions and you cleared $5m with nothing coming back.

For that, I think that one year older and one year removed from winning that cup brings both JMFJ and Cogs back down to a 1 year - 850K deal. If they can get more on the open market, more power to them but there is also the possibility that they end up on PTOs real quick as well depending on how free agency pans out.
 
I quoted those messages in response to the Avs not having a lot of cap space not specifically anything other than that.

I was legit asking a question if there was some sort of hidden bonus garbage cap space eater that I hadn't taken into account or wasn't aware of or something like that.

I figured that the numbers would be debated. Some people could argue that Byram at $3.25M is very low for a bridge and they might be right, I just don't believe he's earned more than that with the amount of hockey he's played over his first 3 years.



For that, I think that one year older and one year removed from winning that cup brings both JMFJ and Cogs back down to a 1 year - 850K deal. If they can get more on the open market, more power to them but there is also the possibility that they end up on PTOs real quick as well depending on how free agency pans out.

For Byram... is he more around the McAvoy/Werenski tier or Dobson/Dunn/Hronek or Lindgren/Romanov/Boqvist? That's your basic comparables to $5m, low to mid 4s, and 3. IMO Byram sees himself as the McAvoy/Werenski, but doesn't have the stats. He's certainly better than Lindgren. Arguably the same as Hronek (4.4m)

Ignore the names, just look how the Avs have signed guys... they don't go after the 850k guys as NHL options. They'll grab a PTO and 850 guys for callups. Guys they sign early are all in the ~1-2m range... Cogs, Helm, Dermy, LOC, Murray, Nieto. They may change course, but that isn't what they have done in the past.
 
I fully understand the notion of moving Girard.

My issue is that with the defense we have, our 3rd pairing guys are likely to play lots of top and middle pairing minutes over the course of the year.

If they move Girard, the Avs better have a stable full of reliable dmen because between Byram, Makar, and especially Manson, there’s gonna be injuries.

So yeah, we have to move a dman. And Girard seems like the most logical choice. But let’s hope we’re prepared for the season. Because otherwise we’re in for another year where we just run our best players into the ground over the course of the year
 
Colorado's cap space is super tight.

They should be able to make enough room to add a 2C ($5M-$7M) with relative ease, but the club is also in need of a top-6 wing and a 3C. Unlike the fourth line, those positions usually cost money, so the Avalanche are going to need to get creative with how they fill those holes. These team is famous for getting maximum value out of RFA and reclamation project acquisitions, fortunately.

My personal worry comes from the fact that Colorado has previously errored in prioritizing the bottom of its roster over glaring needs at the top of it. Last off-season is the most obvious example of this, when the priority was to bring back Cogliano/Helm/Manson over Kadri/another 2C. But this goes back to even 2018, when the club spent $7.1M on Matt Calvert/Ian Cole with no 2C in place.

Hopefully MacFarland and Sakic learned that lesson the hard way last year. It is much easier to add supporting depth (i.e. Aube-Kubel, Cogliano, Nieto, etc.) in-season than it is to address a fundamental roster issue.
 
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