2023-2024 Playoff Tracker - updated after each DET game

[ricky0034]

This number can't be close to right -- it has to be more like 20%

it doesn't account for the fact that Washington and Philadelphia have a game against each other which one of them has to win

 

[Dotter]

To the people saying we weren't supposed to make the playoffs.... wouldn't you think Kane signed precisely because him and Steve thought they could make it? Maybe I misunderstand Kane's late career intentions but it would be weird if he signed here while Steve and Lalonde told him they weren't "supposed" to make it.

How does "supposed to" work? Wings were supposed to draft 1st overall in 2020, but you see how that worked out...

Maybe Larkin wasn't supposed to get hurt after Kane signed? Maybe Wings weren't supposed to run a 3rd (and 4th) string goalie? Maybe Kane and Yzerman had a handshake agreement if Wings were out of the playoffs by TDL, he would trade Kane to contender?

 

[Leadzedder]

Agree. That 68% playoff probability does seem funky.

 

[Axel Sandy Pelikan]

I hear you. The model prolly cant account for th fact that NSH has already clinched and basically could treat the PIT game like an exhib cuz they basically can't go up or down.

At least the Flyers should be motivated against WSH, which is good for us. WSH also has to travel for that game which is the 2nd of a b2b while the PHI is well rested. Plus season finale at homefor them. The tie breaker between the two is curious cuz they are on par in the win categories rn. Season series is tied rn 1-1, so this could be game 3 for the higher position.

It'd be good for us too, if NYI loses the next one, so that they gotta bust their ass against PIT in the season finale.

It bothers me that we are not in the clear of a team that are almost 50 behind us in the goal differential department.

Should our season go down the shitter, I will be looking at the 2 ARI games. Those were absolutely disgraceful and had me flatout disgusted with the team. Larkin or no Larkin.

Wings have to get 3 points against Montreal and hope Washington either takes a loss against Boston or Philly.

3 points, Philly can't catch them and Pitt can't catch them no matter what happens. If they don't get 3 points, they're not getting in. (It's a really low percentage chance, if it's even possible.)

Agree. That 68% playoff probability does seem funky.

Think they're looking at it by likelihood of victory on paper. Wings should be favored in both Montreal games. Washington an underdog against Boston and pick'em with Philly. Philly, pick'em with Washington, but Philly requires Wings to get 2 or less points. Pittsburgh has a tough couple games and need to make up an extra point on Detroit in 2 games.

 

[Bench]

I wish it was as simple as win and in. Relying on teams to lose feels like a cursed endeavor.

 

[Realgud]

How does "supposed to" work? Wings were supposed to draft 1st overall in 2020, but you see how that worked out...

Maybe Larkin wasn't supposed to get hurt after Kane signed? Maybe Wings weren't supposed to run a 3rd (and 4th) string goalie? Maybe Kane and Yzerman had a handshake agreement if Wings were out of the playoffs by TDL, he would trade Kane to contender?

I'm questioning Lalonde and his pressers and the fans reinforcing the idea that we weren't supposed to make the playoffs and just being in the mix was the expectation. But adding a player of Kane's calibre (and him wanted to sign here in the first place) would seem to clearly go against what Lalonde says in his press conferences, and it is that specific contradiction that I am questioning. Someone gave a good possible explanation already.

You're focusing on the results and what happened but I am only talking about the perceived expectations here.

 

[Dotter]

I'm questioning Lalonde and his pressers and the fans reinforcing the idea that we weren't supposed to make the playoffs and just being in the mix was the expectation. But adding a player of Kane's calibre (and him wanted to sign here in the first place) would seem to clearly go against what Lalonde says in his press conferences, and it is that specific contradiction that I am questioning. Someone gave a good possible explanation already.

You're focusing on the results and what happened but I am only talking about the perceived expectations here.

I doubt Lalonde bet any money on the team making the playoffs. I think they were at best 'hopeful' if everything goes right.

He was probably tempering expectations.

 

[ricky0034]

I wish it was as simple as win and in. Relying on teams to lose feels like a cursed endeavor.

yeah it never feels good having to rely on other teams to do or not do things

but on the other hand the Wings are lucky to still have a shot at the Playoffs at all sitting at 87 points with 2 games left in the season, 91 points is rarely enough for even a wild card spot

 

[Realgud]

I doubt Lalonde bet any money on the team making the playoffs. I think they were at best 'hopeful' if everything goes right.

He was probably tempering expectations.

Yes I do agree with you they were "hopeful" if we're talking early season predictions, you are correct, but when Kane signed, the team was in a really good spot and we were half way through the season already. I feel like him tempering expectations is just excuses for this historic collapse at this point. There's no way the post-TDL collapse was the expectations from Kane, Yzerman, Lalonde and the rest of the team. I would freaking hope they felt good about their chances, or else the "loser attitude" that some have mentioned would be concerning and probably one of the reasons for what happened.

In the grand scheme of things, this collapse doesn't matter one bit but for the players, the coaches and Kane, there's no way they are ok with the recent results. For us, the fans, it's frustrating but we'll get over it as the team is clearly improving from year to year. Let's hope they win the last 2!

 

[jkutswings]

I doubt Lalonde bet any money on the team making the playoffs. I think they were at best 'hopeful' if everything goes right.

He was probably tempering expectations.

Which is contrary to professional coaching. Those guys are supposed to be hard wired to win every game in front of them and squeeze every ounce of success they can from the players they have.

The more I see from him, the more Lalonde strikes me as a nice guy who's a very good assistant coach, but is over his head for running the entire bench.

 

[Ezekial]

Imagine Scotty Bowman thinking "you gotta temper those expectations"


Great coaches get players to play above their own expectations.

 

[jkutswings]

Imagine Scotty Bowman thinking "you gotta temper those expectations"

Yzerman, I know I had you completely change the way you play. But that loser point when Pittsburgh put half a dozen in our net was so important, because we still have a path (to stop choking away what we were on track to have in the first place).

 

[OneMoreTry]

The more I see from him, the more Lalonde strikes me as a nice guy who's a very good assistant coach, but is over his head for running the entire bench.

Yup. As a player development coach, preferably assigned to certain guys he can individually guide/train, he might actually be great. But head coaching? Hell no.

 

[JediOrderPizza]

I wish it was as simple as win and in. Relying on teams to lose feels like a cursed endeavor.

Yeah hopefully Tuesday they will have just that.

 

[RabidBadger]

If we miss the playoffs I just need it to be not Pittsburgh that makes it. That, and having the 2-3% chance of getting Macklin Cellibrini will make me sports happy.

 

[Dotter]

Yes I do agree with you they were "hopeful" if we're talking early season predictions, you are correct, but when Kane signed, the team was in a really good spot and we were half way through the season already. I feel like him tempering expectations is just excuses for this historic collapse at this point. There's no way the post-TDL collapse was the expectations from Kane, Yzerman, Lalonde and the rest of the team. I would freaking hope they felt good about their chances, or else the "loser attitude" that some have mentioned would be concerning and probably one of the reasons for what happened.

In the grand scheme of things, this collapse doesn't matter one bit but for the players, the coaches and Kane, there's no way they are ok with the recent results. For us, the fans, it's frustrating but we'll get over it as the team is clearly improving from year to year. Let's hope they win the last 2!

Hard to feel bad for the players when they decide to go out and get injured and not play those important games. Kane was injured and missed time. That's on him. Larkin was injured and missed time. That's on him. This is a bubble team and those guys NEED to be out there playing the game rather than missing games. They have themselves to blame.

That being said, I agree. Laldone needs to go.

 

[GMR]

Which is contrary to professional coaching. Those guys are supposed to be hard wired to win every game in front of them and squeeze every ounce of success they can from the players they have.

The more I see from him, the more Lalonde strikes me as a nice guy who's a very good assistant coach, but is over his head for running the entire bench.

Lalonde is not a wartime consigliere.

 

[Roomba With a Bauer]

Lalonde has a good understanding of systems, but as a motivator and a leader he's lacking. He's also pretty poor at adapting to game conditions and prepping the team. He's not very fast on his feet when quick decisions have to be made in-game.

IMO a head coach can survive by leaning on assistants for technical aspects but a head coach who can't motivate is dead in the water.

He reminds me a lot of Dave Lewis.

 

[ricky0034]

If we miss the playoffs I just need it to be not Pittsburgh that makes it. That, and having the 2-3% chance of getting Macklin Cellibrini will make me sports happy.

you can only move up a maximum of 10 spots in the lottery now so Celebrini isn't possible no matter how the Wings finish the season at this point(the lowest the Wings could possibly finish right now is 12th which would be a maximum of 2nd overall with a lottery win)

 

[RabidBadger]

you can only move up a maximum of 10 spots in the lottery now so Celebrini isn't possible no matter how the Wings finish the season at this point(the lowest the Wings could possibly finish right now is 12th which would be a maximum of 2nd overall with a lottery win)

I'm sure he would fall to us at the second pick

 

[19 for president]

Lalonde has a good understanding of systems, but as a motivator and a leader he's lacking. He's also pretty poor at adapting to game conditions and prepping the team. He's not very fast on his feet when quick decisions have to be made in-game.

IMO a head coach can survive by leaning on assistants for technical aspects but a head coach who can't motivate is dead in the water.

He reminds me a lot of Dave Lewis.

I was 100% thinking this the other day, especially about Dave Lewis.

You listen to Lalonde talk and it really gives you the sense that he never had any faith in this team, and I have an issue with that when at one point we were 10 pts up on a playoff spot. Is this a flawed team, absolutely, but you also build off momentum.

It's one thing at the end of the year if you want to talk about this being a development year, blah blah blah. You don't give up before the games before they are played, and he very much gives that vibe.

 

[Oddbob]

Which is contrary to professional coaching. Those guys are supposed to be hard wired to win every game in front of them and squeeze every ounce of success they can from the players they have.

The more I see from him, the more Lalonde strikes me as a nice guy who's a very good assistant coach, but is over his head for running the entire bench.

This has been my feeling since last season. Good defensive minded asst. coach, who isn't made to be NHL had coach. Much better roster than Blashill, not really much better results and I thought Blashill wasn't a good head coach either.

 

[chances14]

one other scenario i don't see mentioned much is the islanders only get max of 1 point in the last 2 games. Washington or Pittsburgh jumps them into 3rd in the metro and Detroit finishes ahead of the islanders in the wildcard spot on tiebreakers. The islanders do not have tiebreakers with any of the teams behind them so they have to get in on points

Obviously this is assuming the wings win against Montreal

 

[Oddbob]

one other scenario i don't see mentioned much is the islanders only get max of 1 point in the last 2 games. Washington or Pittsburgh jumps them into 3rd in the metro and Detroit finishes ahead of the islanders in the wildcard spot on tiebreakers. The islanders do not have tiebreakers with any of the teams behind them so they have to get in on points

Obviously this is assuming the wings win against Montreal

That would be good, but they already have 90 pts, that scenario means we have to at worst go 1-0-1 to get in. We should beat MTL both, but the NHL is way closer than that, so I expect we win won and either lose in regulation or lose in OT/SO. Not only that, but lately MTL like OTT and FLA seems to have our number.

 

[Pavels Dog]

This has been my feeling since last season. Good defensive minded asst. coach, who isn't made to be NHL had coach. Much better roster than Blashill, not really much better results and I thought Blashill wasn't a good head coach either.

Here's a quick breakdown of the Atlantic division vs. last season:

Boston: -14
Toronto: -7
Florida: +17
Tampa: +0
Buffalo: -8
Ottawa: -8
Montreal: +8

Detroit: +9

+/- a point or two given games remaining.

But apart from teams like Florida/Vancouver, we probably end up as one of the most improved teams this season.