2023-2024 Playoff Tracker - updated after each DET game

[ShanahanMan]

67% boys

 

[Leadzedder]

	Team	Win %		Pts	RW	ROW	GR		SUN 14th…	MON 15th…..	TUE 16th…..	WED 17th….	L10..…
MET3	NYI	.562		90	27	36	2			@ NJD		PIT	7-2-1
WC2	WSH	.544		87	30	34	2			BOS	@ PHI		3-5-2
	DET	.544		87	27	37	2			MTL	@ MTL		3-4-3
	PHI	.537		87	30	34	1				WSH		2-6-2
	PIT	.538		86	31	35	2			NSH		@ NYI	7-1-2

If DET gets 4 points, to pass them…

NYI need 2 points in 2 games
WSH need 4 points in 2 games
PIT can’t catch them
PHI can’t catch them


If DET gets 3 points, to pass them…

NYI need 1 point in 2 games
WSH needs 3 points in 2 games
PIT needs 4 points in 2 games
PHI can’t catch them


If DET gets 2 points or worse they miss the playoffs

* due to WSH vs PHI game.




- Tie breakers don’t really come in to play. We lose them all with the possible exception of vs NYI if we catch them.

 

[Leadzedder]

Detroit Red Wings Playoff Chances​

Beat Maple Leafs 5-4 (ot), playoff odds up 29.5 to 66.8%
87 points 39 32-9

 

[Gniwder]

Good, we all know the Leafs like to let their fans down, lol.

Just stopped by to say "I told you so"

 

[redwings8831]

View attachment 850225

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

Those Montreal games aren't going to be given to us.They want to play spoiler...

 

[ricky0034]

View attachment 851563

I feel like this site for some reason isn't factoring in that one of Washington/Philadelphia is guaranteed to get at least 89 points and also has the tiebreaker over the Wings

Detroit Red Wings Playoff Chances - Sports Club Stats

Detroit Red Wings playoff odds, and who you should root for today.

www.sportsclubstats.com

it has the Wings at a 53.6% chance of making the Playoffs at 89 points with all the games added but it's actually impossible for the Wings to make it with 89 points now

not sure how exactly that should factor in on the bigger picture 66.8% chance of making it but I would imagine the real number factoring that in would be a fair bit different

 

[14ari13]

It seems as 90 points will be enough to make it.

Those Montreal games aren't going to be given to us.They want to play spoiler...

The games vs Coyotes and Caps were not 10 years ago. People have already forgotten them. Hopefully the players and the coach haven't

 

[FMichael]

Good Lord - the Wings might actually pull it off…My poor knees can’t take this anymore - all the jumping on and off the bandwagon.

 

[Axel Sandy Pelikan]

Damn it. No margin for error because the two teams chasing them are playing. They needed that win over Washington badly.

Detroit wins out, they're more likely in than not, but it's difficult to win a B2B against the same team and Montreal will want badly to be the spoilers.

 

[Chelis Chili]

Crazy race...

...if you compare it with boring WC:

 

[lilidk]

Only 2 more games Alex , you can do it

 

[schuelma24]

Only 2 more games Alex , you can do it

feel like we're going to have to see Reimer for the last one since it's a back to back...

 

[lilidk]

feel like we're going to have to see Reimer for the last one since it's a back to back...

I hope he played his last game as Red Wings

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

Why aren't wins the first tie breaker? If you have more wins regardless of OT or SH it's still a win...

 

[Gustave]

Those Montreal games aren't going to be given to us.They want to play spoiler...

A rare time when both fanbases want the same outcome though. We are rooting for you, RW fans!
Habs land is standing firm behind your playoffs push.

 

[habsterr]

Those Montreal games aren't going to be given to us.They want to play spoiler...

No both fan bases have united for a Red wings win on Monday. Montreal benefits from a regulation loss too.

 

[norrisnick]

No both fan bases have united for a Red wings win on Monday. Montreal benefits from a regulation loss too.

The players, however, don't give two shits about draft positions.

 

[Bondurant]

Cannot worry about what cannot be controlled but if they cannot beat the lowly Habs twice to close it out they don't deserve an invite to the dance.

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

No both fan bases have united for a Red wings win on Monday. Montreal benefits from a regulation loss too.

The Montreal players will play to win.

 

[OneMoreTry]

BTW.. with the top teams in the East at around 110 points, us at 87 and the Habs at 74.. we better not talk too much about them being a bad team, because we ourselves are still far, far away from being a real good team.

 

[newfy]

So basically need the caps to drop a game and the wings to win out.

 

[The Real Pastafarian]

67% boys

This number can't be close to right -- it has to be more like 20%

 

[Winged Wheel Willy]

This number can't be close to right -- it has to be more like 20%

I hear you. The model prolly cant account for th fact that NSH has already clinched and basically could treat the PIT game like an exhib cuz they basically can't go up or down.

At least the Flyers should be motivated against WSH, which is good for us. WSH also has to travel for that game which is the 2nd of a b2b while the PHI is well rested. Plus season finale at homefor them. The tie breaker between the two is curious cuz they are on par in the win categories rn. Season series is tied rn 1-1, so this could be game 3 for the higher position.

It'd be good for us too, if NYI loses the next one, so that they gotta bust their ass against PIT in the season finale.

It bothers me that we are not in the clear of a team that are almost 50 behind us in the goal differential department.

Should our season go down the shitter, I will be looking at the 2 ARI games. Those were absolutely disgraceful and had me flatout disgusted with the team. Larkin or no Larkin.

 

[Wings4Life]

This number can't be close to right -- it has to be more like 20%

31% according to this: 2024 NHL Post Season Probabilities

LGW