Speculation: 2023-2024 General Lightning Discussion - Part 4

[Felonious Python]

2009-10 Lightning player

 

[ccman68]

i’m about 95% confident stamkos will be back. don’t really see any reason he wouldn’t be. we’ve got the cap space and he wants to stay

 

[DFC]

i’m about 95% confident stamkos will be back. don’t really see any reason he wouldn’t be. we’ve got the cap space and he wants to stay

We do?

 

[LightningStrikes]

We do?

Just not enough.

 

[Stammertime91]

If we don't resign him, who replaces him? Those that think it's time to "move on," give me options of who you're replacing him with. What are we doing with the cap space. Because lobbying for a GM to sit idly by and lean towards Jeannot/Sheary and letting a 30-40 goal guy, your captain, the RH shot on the PP, etc just walk is diabolical. That's absolutely atrocious. So, you'd have to be bringing in a replacement or two with that cap space and retooling the team.

Our 5v5 play wasn't great, but if we neutralize one of our biggest threats and options for Kucherov on the powerplay, we will only take a step backwards.

I'm really interested in who people think we bring in, or what we do. If it's a reasonable path forward, I'm all for it, but this UFA class ain't it. Pissing away another year without Stamkos just wastes a legit shot with Kuch, Vasy and Point in their primes.

 

[Sky04]

If we don't resign him, who replaces him? Those that think it's time to "move on," give me options of who you're replacing him with. What are we doing with the cap space. Because lobbying for a GM to sit idly by and lean towards Jeannot/Sheary and letting a 30-40 goal guy, your captain, the RH shot on the PP, etc just walk is diabolical. That's absolutely atrocious. So, you'd have to be bringing in a replacement or two with that cap space and retooling the team.

Our 5v5 play wasn't great, but if we neutralize one of our biggest threats and options for Kucherov on the powerplay, we will only take a step backwards.

I'm really interested in who people think we bring in, or what we do. If it's a reasonable path forward, I'm all for it, but this UFA class ain't it. Pissing away another year without Stamkos just wastes a legit shot with Kuch, Vasy and Point in their primes.

Beacuse Stamkos ate 8.5M in that and sucked at ES... had Stamkos not had his hot streak at the end of the season we'd have been fine letting him walk, 80% of his season was pretty garbage, feeding off easy PP goals from Kucherov while being wildly ineffective at ES.

I don't think being "captain" is going to matter much, leadership is fine on this team with Hedman and now McDonagh. Stamkos for the most part of his captaincy has been underperforming when it matters most.

I'm indifferent to Stamkos staying or going but I'm pretty sure JBB already has in mind what Stamkos is "worth" and that's not market value, the only way he comes back is a value deal which is fine for us but if he doesn't come back it's because he wants a number closer to market one which is a definite pass, overpaying Stamkos is one of the dumbest things he could do right now if he wants to stay competitive, I'd argue any team signing Stamkos at market value is shooting themselves in the foot, guy has a very limited skillset.

We aren't 1 or 2 players away from being competitive again that includes Stamkos staying or going, again, move some of the fat contracts on this team and go back to gettting value contracts and that's the biggest step forward.

 

[Todd1a]

If we don't resign him, who replaces him? Those that think it's time to "move on," give me options of who you're replacing him with. What are we doing with the cap space. Because lobbying for a GM to sit idly by and lean towards Jeannot/Sheary and letting a 30-40 goal guy, your captain, the RH shot on the PP, etc just walk is diabolical. That's absolutely atrocious. So, you'd have to be bringing in a replacement or two with that cap space and retooling the team.

Our 5v5 play wasn't great, but if we neutralize one of our biggest threats and options for Kucherov on the powerplay, we will only take a step backwards.

I'm really interested in who people think we bring in, or what we do. If it's a reasonable path forward, I'm all for it, but this UFA class ain't it. Pissing away another year without Stamkos just wastes a legit shot with Kuch, Vasy and Point in their primes.

You wouldn’t replace Stamkos with one forward you get two 3 million dollar per year guys to replace him duclair being one and I’d probably go with Victor Olofsson being the other one.

​

 

[These Are The Days]

Beacuse Stamkos ate 8.5M in that and sucked at ES... had Stamkos not had his hot streak at the end of the season we'd have been fine letting him walk, 80% of his season was pretty garbage, feeding off easy PP goals from Kucherov while being wildly ineffective at ES.

I don't think being "captain" is going to matter much, leadership is fine on this team with Hedman and now McDonagh. Stamkos for the most part of his captaincy has been underperforming when it matters most.

I'm indifferent to Stamkos staying or going but I'm pretty sure JBB already has in mind what Stamkos is "worth" and that's not market value, the only way he comes back is a value deal which is fine for us but if he doesn't come back it's because he wants a number closer to market one which is a definite pass, overpaying Stamkos is one of the dumbest things he could do right now if he wants to stay competitive, I'd argue any team signing Stamkos at market value is shooting themselves in the foot, guy has a very limited skillset.

We aren't 1 or 2 players away from being competitive again that includes Stamkos staying or going, again, move some of the fat contracts on this team and go back to gettting value contracts and that's the biggest step forward.

To be fair, Stamkos has been conjoined to Cirelli's hip at even strength on the wing for like 3 years and nearly every time he plays with someone else he looks like a new man. Nick Paul going through the motions not giving a crap for 30 games at a time doesn't count in my book either. Other than that, his other primary linemate was the guy best known for falling down 11 times per game

 

[DFC]

If we don't resign him, who replaces him? Those that think it's time to "move on," give me options of who you're replacing him with. What are we doing with the cap space. Because lobbying for a GM to sit idly by and lean towards Jeannot/Sheary and letting a 30-40 goal guy, your captain, the RH shot on the PP, etc just walk is diabolical. That's absolutely atrocious. So, you'd have to be bringing in a replacement or two with that cap space and retooling the team.

Our 5v5 play wasn't great, but if we neutralize one of our biggest threats and options for Kucherov on the powerplay, we will only take a step backwards.

I'm really interested in who people think we bring in, or what we do. If it's a reasonable path forward, I'm all for it, but this UFA class ain't it. Pissing away another year without Stamkos just wastes a legit shot with Kuch, Vasy and Point in their primes.

It goes both ways. If 5v5 is staying the same, yeah, we take a step back. But if we are adding 5v5 goals at the expense of PP goals, we are probably a better team for it.

Not saying we should move on from Stamkos. Depends on price. But we dont HAVE to have the #1 PP in the league. And getting better at even strength should be a pretty big priority this off season.

One thing that makes Stamkos so hard to judge is, aside from Vasy, no player had a bigger turnaround at the trade deadline. Stamkos WAS dangerous 5v5 after March 1, but he was abysmal before that -- like Cirelli had better numbers until the TDL. It just makes it hard to figure out what he is right now.

To be fair, Stamkos has been conjoined to Cirelli's hip at even strength on the wing for like 3 years and nearly every time he plays with someone else he looks like a new man. Nick Paul going through the motions not giving a crap for 30 games at a time doesn't count in my book either. Other than that, his other primary linemate was the guy best known for falling down 11 times per game

To be fair to being fair, Stamkos always looks like a new man for about 5 games when he gets new linemates. It goes all the way back to Killorn/Callahan. I've only seen Stamkos have genuine, long lasting chemistry with two players, and they are not coincidentally the best two forwards in the history of the franchise.

 

[These Are The Days]

It goes both ways. If 5v5 is staying the same, yeah, we take a step back. But if we are adding 5v5 goals at the expense of PP goals, we are probably a better team for it.

Not saying we should move on from Stamkos. Depends on price. But we dont HAVE to have the #1 PP in the league. And getting better at even strength should be a pretty big priority this off season.

One thing that makes Stamkos so hard to judge is, aside from Vasy, no player had a bigger turnaround at the trade deadline. Stamkos WAS dangerous 5v5 after March 1, but he was abysmal before that -- like Cirelli had better numbers until the TDL. It just makes it hard to figure out what he is right now.


To be fair to being fair, Stamkos always looks like a new man for about 5 games when he gets new linemates. It goes all the way back to Killorn/Callahan. I've only seen Stamkos have genuine, long lasting chemistry with two players, and they are not coincidentally the best two forwards in the history of the franchise.

Alright fair enough. I legitimately cannot argue against that. The only thing I can try to say is I have made the observation that once Cooper gives Stamkos a linemate, it doesn't usually change for a VERY long time. And he's been stapled to some real pieces of work. The line with Kucherov and Miller ended abruptly and it was back on the Killorn express and that hasn't changed until Cirelli came into the picture. That time with Marty may be the only time he played with a star for a prolonged period of time

 

[Stammertime91]

Beacuse Stamkos ate 8.5M in that and sucked at ES... had Stamkos not had his hot streak at the end of the season we'd have been fine letting him walk, 80% of his season was pretty garbage, feeding off easy PP goals from Kucherov while being wildly ineffective at ES.

I don't think being "captain" is going to matter much, leadership is fine on this team with Hedman and now McDonagh. Stamkos for the most part of his captaincy has been underperforming when it matters most.

I'm indifferent to Stamkos staying or going but I'm pretty sure JBB already has in mind what Stamkos is "worth" and that's not market value, the only way he comes back is a value deal which is fine for us but if he doesn't come back it's because he wants a number closer to market one which is a definite pass, overpaying Stamkos is one of the dumbest things he could do right now if he wants to stay competitive, I'd argue any team signing Stamkos at market value is shooting themselves in the foot, guy has a very limited skillset.

We aren't 1 or 2 players away from being competitive again that includes Stamkos staying or going, again, move some of the fat contracts on this team and go back to gettting value contracts and that's the biggest step forward.

Those are valid points but I think the leadership part does take a hit moving him. It turns a page not just on the offense but the entire franchise. It's different than having moved McDonagh. Not sure how the team would respond. Worth 7-8M in keeping him because of "captaincy," no, so I see your point but I think moving him or Hedman definitely does more to the team than McDonagh, Killorn, Palat, etc did.

If JBB had any inkling that a deal couldn't have been done prior to the TDL and decides not to bring him back, that's poor management imo. He should have sold at the TDL, including Stamkos, not letting him walk with the only positive being cap space. This franchise desperately needs assets and if he felt there was a certain amount he's worth and wouldn't negotiate, then he should have ripped the band aid off then. Who knows, maybe Stamkos wouldn't have liked the new place then still has a chance to resign here? Unlikely, but that was the better route. I agree JBB has a number in mind, but he could've sold incredibly high or with solid value.

Disagree on the final point to an extent. I'm 100% for moving Cirelli. Sign a middle six winger, put Stamkos at center again, and work on composing a better bottom six. Our defense is "fine" in the sense that we could use a RD but could probably get by. Hell, if Edmonton is in the final with THAT, we can get by in the east running Raddysh, Cernak, Perbix. Plus, McD coming back is a blessing. He does wonders for our exits and neutral zone.

 

[JTBF81]

Moving jeannot, sheary, and possibly perbix would open up more than enough to sign Stamkos. We use lilleberg , Crozier, and sign another nhl minimum vet d like like fleury. Then we sign stamkos possibly add one or two players with grit to bottom 6 like goodrow types one a one year deal, take a shot at rebuilding top 6 forward like mantha/duclair/Tarasenko, and fill the other forward spots from cuse and prospects. If any serious offers are made for cernak, cirelli, or sergachev we sh⁸ould listen.

They move Sheary, Jeannot, and Perbix, they'll have 11.125 available with 8F, 5D, 2G. Lilleberg and Crozier likely get the 6 and 7 spots on the blueline, so now they'd have just under 9.4 left for 5F spots. Goncalves and Motte could take the 12/13 F spots for 1.6-1.7, so now 7.7-7.8. Whether Kaliyev or someone similar is acquired in the Jeannot or Perbix trades in this scenario, Tampa could add a couple of ufa's (maybe Connor Brown or Janmark from Edmonton,, maybe Lafferty from the Canucks), and then let Stamkos know they can offer him somewhere between 5.5-5.8x4 or 5 years. That will realistically all they have to offer, so if Stamkos won't agree, than he will walk. JBB could them use that same money on a ufa F or take it and the 1-1.5 on one of the other ufa F to allocate ~7 million on 2 ufa F in some combination. I don't think Tampa will go as low as 21, but if so, then Stamkos could be offered in the mid 6's or they could spend around 2 on the last F.

 

[Todd1a]

They move Sheary, Jeannot, and Perbix, they'll have 11.125 available with 8F, 5D, 2G. Lilleberg and Crozier likely get the 6 and 7 spots on the blueline, so now they'd have just under 9.4 left for 5F spots. Goncalves and Motte could take the 12/13 F spots for 1.6-1.7, so now 7.7-7.8. Whether Kaliyev or someone similar is acquired in the Jeannot or Lerbox trades in this scenario, Tampa could add a couple of ufa's (maybe Connor Brown or Janmark from Edmonton,, maybe Lafferty from the Canucks), and then let Stamkos know they can offer him somewhere between 5.5-5.8x4 or 5 years. That will realistically all they have to offer, so if Stamkos won't agree, than he will walk. JBB could them use that same money on a ufa F or take it and the 1-1.5 on one of the other ufa F to allocate ~7 million on 2 ufa F in some combination. I don't think Tampa will go as low as 21, but if so, then Stamkos could be offered in the mid 6's or they could spend around 2 on the last F.

Us offering Stamkos 5-5.5 per year is a garbage offer i think he will take 6.75 per year for 4 years . Because in the open market i think he can get 3-4 years 7.5 to 8 per year .

It was stupid JBB didn’t have a plan when he traded for MAC 6.75 AAV per year salary and on top of that threw away a 2nd rounder. Mac had full trade protection we could have got him for probably a 5th rounder.

But we had 11 million plus in cap Space before that trade we could have traded Jeannot and had like 13.5 million in space could have signed Stamkos and signed a defenseman for 3-4 million per season.

I think JBB put us in a bad cap situation when we were in a great cap situation a month ago . Now we probably have to pay more assets to move Sheary and we probably get a 6th or 7th rounder at best back for jeannot.

JBB needs to improve signing contracts and management of his assets better.

The jeannot trade was horrible and the Sheary signing to replace killorn was terrible also vladdy signing to replace palat.

I definitely am not waiting with excitement for who he signs to replace Stamkos with.

 

[JTBF81]

Us offering Stamkos 5-5.5 per year is a garbage offer i think he will take 6.75 per year for 4 years . Because in the open market i think he can get 3-4 years 7.5 to 8 per year .

It was stupid JBB didn’t have a plan when he traded for MAC 6.75 AAV per year salary and on top of that threw away a 2nd rounder. Mac had full trade protection we could have got him for probably a 5th rounder.

But we had 11 million plus in cap Space before that trade we could have traded Jeannot and had like 13.5 million in space could have signed Stamkos and signed a defenseman for 3-4 million per season.

I think JBB put us in a bad cap situation when we were in a great cap situation a month ago . Now we probably have to pay more assets to move Sheary and we probably get a 6th or 7th rounder at best back for jeannot.

JBB needs to improve signing contracts and management of his assets better.

The jeannot trade was horrible and the Sheary signing to replace killorn was terrible also vladdy signing to replace palat.

I definitely am not waiting with excitement for who he signs to replace Stamkos with.

If 6.75 is as low as he'll go, that's fine, but he's likely gone. 5.75-6 can be accomplished with some tweaks on other signings, but unless JBB is willing to with less than 22 (which I doubt), then high 5 x to maybe 6 is thr ceiling if he wants to finish his career in Tampa.

 

[JTBF81]

Us offering Stamkos 5-5.5 per year is a garbage offer i think he will take 6.75 per year for 4 years . Because in the open market i think he can get 3-4 years 7.5 to 8 per year .

It was stupid JBB didn’t have a plan when he traded for MAC 6.75 AAV per year salary and on top of that threw away a 2nd rounder. Mac had full trade protection we could have got him for probably a 5th rounder.

But we had 11 million plus in cap Space before that trade we could have traded Jeannot and had like 13.5 million in space could have signed Stamkos and signed a defenseman for 3-4 million per season.

I think JBB put us in a bad cap situation when we were in a great cap situation a month ago . Now we probably have to pay more assets to move Sheary and we probably get a 6th or 7th rounder at best back for jeannot.

JBB needs to improve signing contracts and management of his assets better.

The jeannot trade was horrible and the Sheary signing to replace killorn was terrible also vladdy signing to replace palat.

I definitely am not waiting with excitement for who he signs to replace Stamkos with.

They also got a 4th back in the McD trade, and Nashville didn't have to give him away nor trade him at all. Yes, Tampa could've potentially signed a ufa dman for 3-4 million, but they would've been fringe top 4 quality at best.

Even if Stamkos walks, there are plenty of F candidates that JBB could target for 5.5-6 million that while perhaps not as great with the man advantage, likely improve the team 5v5. JBB would also have roughly 7 million available for the last two F spots in the above scenario, so who knows how that would be allocated whether Stamkos walks or not.

 

[Todd1a]

They also got a 4th back in the McD trade, and Nashville didn't have to give him away nor trade him at all. Yes, Tampa could've potentially signed a ufa dman for 3-4 million, but they would've been fringe top 4 quality at best.

Even if Stamkos walks, there are plenty of F candidates that JBB could target for 5.5-6 million that while perhaps not as great with the man advantage, likely improve the team 5v5. JBB would also have roughly 7 million available for the last two F spots in the above scenario, so who knows how that would be allocated whether Stamkos walks or not.

Ya but that’s the thing JBB has been bad at signing guys in free agency lol see vladdy and sheary . Right now we have 5.3 million in cap space how can you afford 5-6 million for a top six forward?

Sheary is gonna be hard to move and probably jeannot as well

If you move cernak or cirell your just making another hole in the lineup

If 6.75 is as low as he'll go, that's fine, but he's likely gone. 5.75-6 can be accomplished with some tweaks on other signings, but unless JBB is willing to with less than 22 (which I doubt), then high 5 x to maybe 6 is thr ceiling if he wants to finish his career in Tampa.

Ok look at it this way what is the top best offer Stamkos will get from another team on July 1st in free agency?

 

[Stammertime91]

They also got a 4th back in the McD trade, and Nashville didn't have to give him away nor trade him at all. Yes, Tampa could've potentially signed a ufa dman for 3-4 million, but they would've been fringe top 4 quality at best.

Even if Stamkos walks, there are plenty of F candidates that JBB could target for 5.5-6 million that while perhaps not as great with the man advantage, likely improve the team 5v5. JBB would also have roughly 7 million available for the last two F spots in the above scenario, so who knows how that would be allocated whether Stamkos walks or not.

Such as?

 

[JTBF81]

Ya but that’s the thing JBB has been bad at signing guys in free agency lol see vladdy and sheary . Right now we have 5.3 million in cap space how can you afford 5-6 million for a top six forward?

Sheary is gonna be hard to move and probably jeannot as well

If you move cernak or cirell your just making another hole in the lineup


Ok look at it this way what is the top best offer Stamkos will get from another team on July 1st in free agency?

Namestnikov actually did pretty well in Winnipeg, but he just wasn't great in Tampa. Sheary has been rough, hut even then, given what kind of player he had been in the previous seasons, JBB figured he was signing at least a 35-40 point type guy.

I realize the space they have right now, and so any theoretical discussions are based on at least both Sheary and Jeannot being moved. It really doesn't matter how "difficult" it may be to move Sheary(Jeannot shouldn't be), the moves need to be made for the needed cap space to be there.

I also don't really care what some other hypothetical team might offer Stamkos. Tampa was never going to be able to offer him some bloated number, so it was always a question of whether he would take what Tampa could offer while improving the team's defense and potentially other areas. I don't blame Stamkos at all if some team wants to offer 8 or 9 and he takes it. In any case, Tampa should have the room to keep/add a significant top 6 F, either with Stamkos re-signing or a quality ufa with the money that would've gone to him.

 

[Stammertime91]

Namestnikov actually did pretty well in Winnipeg, but he just wasn't great in Tampa. Sheary has been rough, hut even then, given what kind of player he had been in the previous seasons, JBB figured he was signing at least a 35-40 point type guy.

I realize the space they have right now, and so any theoretical discussions are based on at least both Sheary and Jeannot being moved. It really doesn't matter how "difficult" it may be to move Sheary(Jeannot shouldn't be), the moves need to be made for the needed cap space to be there.

I also don't really care what some other hypothetical team might offer Stamkos. Tampa was never going to be able to offer him some bloated number, so it was always a question of whether he would take what Tampa could offer while improving the team's defense and potentially other areas. I don't blame Stamkos at all if some team wants to offer 8 or 9 and he takes it. In any case, Tampa should have the room to add a significant top 6 F, either with Stamkos re-signing or a quality ufa with the money that would've gone to him.

The biggest issue with Sheary, and Jeannot for that matter, is that neither move the needle in how we look or play as a team. Sheary is a fly on the forecheck, small, and goes invisible (using what Buffalo and Washington fans said). Jeannot hits and forechecks but is too slow and has stone hands. They just don't fit in. Both of those guys feel forced in our lineup. Take into consideration what we're trying to do with little cap space and it feels even worse.

 

[garmonbozia]

Ok look at it this way what is the top best offer Stamkos will get from another team on July 1st in free agency?

This is the heart of the fear. I think Stamkos can get more than his previous AAV on a 3 or 4 year deal. 8.5m to 10m depending on how close to contention the team is.

Some team(s) will value him as a top 6 center. They'll want the Cup winning Captain's experience. They'll pay to expect those goals and not fret age expected decline. Compared to what is available in free agency this year Stamkos can rightfully expect to get PAID if he's willing to move on.

The time to sign him is before July 1st. If it goes the distance he's gone.

 

[Point21]

i have this weird gut feeling that Stamkos signs a 3-5 year deal at a very team friendly AAV under 5m and tells JBB to spend money in free agency

 

[Todd1a]

i have this weird gut feeling that Stamkos signs a 3-5 year deal at a very team friendly AAV under 5m and tells JBB to spend money in free agency

On what Sheary 2.0 ?

 

[JTBF81]

i have this weird gut feeling that Stamkos signs a 3-5 year deal at a very team friendly AAV under 5m and tells JBB to spend money in free agency

It would be quite the decision from Stamkos to do that. However, even if he did come down to something unbelievable like a 4-4.5 aav, the most that JBB could spend would be around 3 on one additional ufa F, while spending 800k-1 million on a couple of others. While there are no doubt solid bottom 6 finds out there in ghe 1-2 million range, whether JBB finds the right pieces is the question.

 

[Todd1a]

It would be quite the decision from Stamkos to do that. However, even if he did come down to something unbelievable like a 4-4.5 aav, the most that JBB could spend would be around 3 on one additional ufa F, while spending 800k-1 million on a couple of others. While there are no doubt solid bottom 6 finds out there in ghe 1-2 million range, whether JBB finds the right pieces is the question.

Would be nice if we could get rid of Sheary and Jeannot and sign duclair and Stamkos

 

[JTBF81]

Would be nice if we could get rid of Sheary and Jeannot and sign duclair and Stamkos

There is no signing Duclair and Stamkos anymore. Duclair will get ~4 million from someone in ufa. Moving Sheary and Jeannot gives Tampa enough room for Stamkos and a couple of ufa's in the 1-1.5 range, after factoring in the other roster spots.