Speculation: 2023-2024 General Lightning Discussion - Part 4

Stammertime91

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Dec 13, 2011
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I don't really understand this logic of "we can keep all our guys if we just keep adding league minimum players!" the point is trying to be competitive right? You're not doing that icing 6-7 league minimum players just to keep bad value contracts. Most of these ideas are just calling for us to ice a bunch of rookies from Syracuse too. Point is to trim the fat not add on scraps.
So true. We just did that. We just witnessed what happens when you do that and it f***ing failed miserably. There is absolutely no cohesion in our bottom six. While I am absolutely fine with moving Jeannot and Sheary, you need legitimate NHLers in your bottom six. You can make it work with a couple rookies but they have to be ready, you don't just say "well, he's league minimum and has a pulse, slap em in the lineup." Our bottom six is total diarrhea.
 
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JTBF81

Registered User
Dec 6, 2018
4,090
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It's honestly reminiscent of the guy that defended Callahan at all costs, only to later find out Callahan was a personal client of his and then it all made sense.


There's no legitimate finisher on the second line. It's all two way forwards that lack a playmaker unless Hagel takes that role and feeds elite sniper Anthony Cirelli. Cirelli and Stamkos are lousy. You admitted Paul and Stamkos are garbo together. So, if it's not precisely Stamkos that is the problem and you load up one scoring line because at least he's good enough to warrant putting there, where does the offense come from on the bottom nine? Lol. Not to mention now you're recommending someone from Syracuse to play in the top 6 or someone in the 1.5-2 million range that *you* repeatedly denied would be an improvement by any stretch over Cirelli. You said "no thanks" and "I doubt that would work" when I gave you 3-4M range guys. Lol. But now suddenly someone like Lafferty/Sheary is going to log +16mins a night and mesh? Those guys are 20-30pt guys and unproven commodities like "someone from Syracuse" that's suddenly going to jump into the NHL under the radar and play a top 6 role? Goncalves and Groshev were your picks, those two? Lol.

You are literally contradicting yourself by the day on how to improve the team without possibly stating that moving Cirelli is a logical option and quite reasonable seeing as a forward making half of what he makes can fill his shoes. Hell, the winger you want to pair him with outscores him by 20-30 points only makes 250k more - which he deserves.

Aaaaaannddddd circling back to my point from a week ago, Anthony Cirelli has been and still remains a luxury on this team. Others can claim the same about Sergachev and while I would rather see us move Cirelli before Sergachev at this point, I would also agree with that assessment. Both are luxuries that if allocating their AAV to areas of need, such as middle six wingers, would be much more wisely spent. People seem to forget without Cirelli, we have three centers capable of hitting over 20 goals, two hitting +40 goals, and two out of those three (Stamkos & Paul) are much better on the draw than Cirelli (56% and 54% to Cirelli's 49%). What the hell does a $6.25M player at this point have in his arsenal that team defense couldn't mask when production is matched and exceeded by players half his cap hit?

*Also, even if Paul has a "down" year and nets 15g 15a 30pts, at least he's paid his worth and living up to it. If he wasn't streaky for a third of the year, he would've hit 30 at 3M. That's f***ing wild that anybody can still defend non-Selke Cirelli at this point when we are talking cutthroat to move players and make the team better. Like, I love the guy. He is the epitome of a hockey player, but I would absolutely be on Stamkos' ass (like I have plenty of times) when he's playing subpar or any player isn't worth his cap hit. This isn't new, either. This is yearly Cirelli. We have Hagel now who is far superior offensively. We are better off putting Stamkos at center with Hagel on his wing and grabbing a legitimate winger to play top 6. That is precisely the case I have been making for a week.
I've stated my position, and all you're doing is re-hashing yours as well over and over. Cool. You don't agree with my path forward and that's great. I think yours is also very poor for the team's future, so I won't be responding to you further, as.there's no agreement to be had.
 
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Stammertime91

TBL: TEAM OF THE CENTURY
Dec 13, 2011
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Tampa: NHL's Newest Dynasty
I've stated my position, and all you're doing is re-hashing yours as well over and over. Cool. You don't agree with my path forward and that's great. I think yours is also very poor for the team's future, so I won't be responding to you further, as.there's no agreement to be had.
Pure comedy.

I suggest 3M players to fill the void in the top 6, "no thanks." You want Syracuse call ups and 1.5-2M players there and somehow it'll work.

Trading Cirelli to improve winger depth is a good idea. Trading Sergachev to improve the RD and winger depth is as well. The difference here is I'm not covertly protecting one player in the organization by all means while you are. I want the team to improve but you think no matter what that can't happen without 71 on the team. You're literally contradicting yourself and getting called out on it. It's comical at this point. There's nothing of value you're adding to the discussion anyhow because I asked for recommendations from Syracuse that you think are ready and that was Goncalves and Groshev. Those are your NHL ready guys ready for top 6 minutes? A player in Laffertys pay range? Half that of Paul, to play in the top six *with Cirelli*? Lmao.

By the way, my decision is no way poor for the team's future. Moving a 45 point center that's worse on the draw and scores less than a 3.1M center is actually quite smart. Not every team needs a defensive center man to have success. There's literally nothing you can put in the "pro" column for Cirelli at this point that others cannot match at varying cap hits. Your plan is keep him "because he's on year 1 out of 8." What the f***.
 
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JTBF81

Registered User
Dec 6, 2018
4,090
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Tampa, FL.
Pure comedy.

I suggest 3M players to fill the void in the top 6, "no thanks." You want Syracuse call ups and 1.5-2M players there and somehow it'll work.

Trading Cirelli to improve winger depth is a good idea. Trading Sergachev to improve the RD and winger depth is as well. The difference here is I'm not covertly protecting one player in the organization by all means while you are. I want the team to improve but you think no matter what that can't happen without 71 on the team. You're literally contradicting yourself and getting called out on it. It's comical at this point. There's nothing of value you're adding to the discussion anyhow because I asked for recommendations from Syracuse that you think are ready and that was Goncalves and Groshev. Those are your NHL ready guys ready for top 6 minutes? A player in Laffertys pay range? Half that of Paul, to play in the top six *with Cirelli*? Lmao.
Nah, you suggested poor 3 million wingers that don't replace all of what Cirelli brings. You allegedly say you think Cirelli is a fine player, but then continuously posit replacing him with guys like Foegele, Joshua or Sprong. Your supposed better plan still leaves a hole in the top 6/9. I suggest keeping Cirelli and adding a 1.5-2 million player, and still having a hole in the top 9. The difference is that moving Sergachev allows the team to not only keep the defense strong, add better assets, and improve the F depth, where as moving Cirelli returns less assets, and minimally, at best, improves the F depth while still overspending on a more imbalanced defense. I also don't suggest playing Lafferty or that 1.5-2 player in the top 6 as the first opriom, as I've made it pretty clear that the top 6 is best suited with Stamkos, Point, Kuch, Hagel, Cirelli and Paul in some configuration. Keep responding to every post I make in any thread, it's quite funny how you seem obsessed with having to reply to any thing I say on here.
 

Sky04

Registered User
Jan 8, 2009
29,277
18,478
I like both of those guys but they are downgrades and are on the last year of their contracts. What else would we be getting back? If it's just cap space, we can do a lot better.

I'm thinking Beniers and if we can target McCann in that mix as well.

Cirelli
Sergachev
Jeannot
Gonglaves/ABB

Gourde 50%
Larsson
McCann
Beniers

Seattle upgrades and gets younger on those expiring contracts. Tampa gets 2 rentals that fill needs, McCan who's on an amazing contract for what he brings, Beniers who's cost controlled and of course capspace / roster flexibility.
 
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JTBF81

Registered User
Dec 6, 2018
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Tampa, FL.
If they don’t move Jeannot and Sheary then there plan is to move cirell
No, moving Cirelli without at least both Jeannot and Sheary accomplishes nothing. Moving Serg and at least Sheary may get them enough, but they really need to move both Jeannot and Sheary in addition to whomever else to really ve able to.do anything(plus, who wants another year of Jeannot and especially Sheary).
 

JTBF81

Registered User
Dec 6, 2018
4,090
2,157
Tampa, FL.
If they don’t move Jeannot and Sheary then there plan is to move cirell
To post the numbers, if they trade Cirelli alone, they have 11.285 available. After Stamkos at hopefully 6, and a dman at 870k, they'd have just under 4.5 left for 3 forwards to reach 22. There's nothing gained there and no roster improvement.
 

Rschmitz

Finding new ways to cheat
Feb 27, 2002
16,262
8,797
Tampa Bay
I'm thinking Beniers in that mix as well considering Seattle has more talent coming up. Gives up 2 quality roster players that fill needs, capspace and a young talent.

I'm down if Seattle is willing to part with him, Beniers is already basically Cirelli production wise.
 

Todd1a

Kucherov or prospect
Jun 19, 2014
16,702
2,873
orlando, fl

  • To post the numbers, if they trade Cirelli alone, they have 11.285 available. After Stamkos at hopefully 6, and a dman at 870k, they'd have just under 4.5 left for 3 forwards to reach 22. There's nothing gained there and no roster improvement.
    I agree but Jeannot and Sheary are trash I don’t think any NHL teams want them lol 😂 at least teams would want and pay assets for cirell
 

JTBF81

Registered User
Dec 6, 2018
4,090
2,157
Tampa, FL.


  • I agree but Jeannot and Sheary are trash I don’t think any NHL teams want them lol 😂 at least teams would want and pay assets for cirell
That's where JBB will earn his money, by finding landing spots for Jeannot, Sheary, maybe Perbix, in order to.have enough cap to make everything work. Trading Serg remains the most effective move(in addition to the 2 or 3 lesser value contracts), in opening space, returning the most premium assets, and still allowing the team to get a solid RD to round out the blueline, keep Stamkos(if that is indeed the plan), and add the two 3-3.5 aav middle 6 F. I don't see any of Cirelli, Serg, or Cernak getting moved though more than likely, and then after the lower aav moves, JBB can either acquire through ufa or trade, a 2nd/3rd liner in the 1.5-2 range(maybe as high as 3-4 in trade if retention) to be either 3C if Paul moves to line 2, or at 2RW/3LW if that's where they are needed.more.
 

Stammertime91

TBL: TEAM OF THE CENTURY
Dec 13, 2011
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12,755
Tampa: NHL's Newest Dynasty
Nah, you suggested poor 3 million wingers that don't replace all of what Cirelli brings. You allegedly say you think Cirelli is a fine player, but then continuously posit replacing him with guys like Foegele, Joshua or Sprong. Your supposed better plan still leaves a hole in the top 6/9. I suggest keeping Cirelli and adding a 1.5-2 million player, and still having a hole in the top 9. The difference is that moving Sergachev allows the team to not only keep the defense strong, add better assets, and improve the F depth, where as moving Cirelli returns less assets, and minimally, at best, improves the F depth while still overspending on a more imbalanced defense. I also don't suggest playing Lafferty or that 1.5-2 player in the top 6 as the first opriom, as I've made it pretty clear that the top 6 is best suited with Stamkos, Point, Kuch, Hagel, Cirelli and Paul in some configuration. Keep responding to every post I make in any thread, it's quite funny how you seem obsessed with having to reply to any thing I say on here.
"Poor ones" that all hit the same production level as Cirelli for half the cost. :laugh:

There are only so many players in FA. It could easily be a roster player from another team. Those are the affordable, reasonable recommendations. You're just saying "league minimum," "Syracuse," as if JBB and Cooper are going to waive a wand and make guys like Goncalves and Groshev NHL ready AND top 6 ready.

Yes, I think Cirelli is good, but you have to save for cap space where you can. Replacing him with a cheaper player is likely always with an inferior player. Holy shit what a groundbreaking analysis you unlocked I can barely keep typing I'm so stunned.
Also, don't tell me how I can think or post on a public forum full of opinions. Thanks!
Perfect response here to the bold in the above quote. You could always stop posting if you don't want people responding to you on a public forum full of opinions?
 

Todd1a

Kucherov or prospect
Jun 19, 2014
16,702
2,873
orlando, fl
Just give stamkos a 8 year 40 million dollar contract for 5 million per year front load the deal make 8 million per year for the first 4 years and then 2 million a year for the last 4 years front load it he probably plays like 4-5 years then retires
 

DFC

Registered User
Sep 26, 2013
47,268
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NB
If Stamkos signs for 6 after a 40 goal season, he needs a statue. That's like Killorn money in the modern NHL.
 

Rschmitz

Finding new ways to cheat
Feb 27, 2002
16,262
8,797
Tampa Bay

1716776557285.png


Let's see...

1716776544354.png


Yep, still has cap space to sign Stamkos for like 2m. :eyeroll:
 

DMB06

Registered User
Jun 3, 2015
1,621
1,438
If Stamkos signs for 6 after a 40 goal season, he needs a statue. That's like Killorn money in the modern NHL.
Yeah, I just don't see it. Obviously I have no clue what he'll do, or what he's asking for, but for all we know he could be demanding 9-10 for 3-4 years. I've wanted to trade him for years now, not because I dislike him or think he's a bad player, I just think two guys making 4-5 instead of Stammer making 8-10 makes us a better team. We'd still have top end talent and now better depth. Right now we're basically a worse Toronto. Top heavy team with no depth that has trouble getting out of the first round.
 

dbieon12

Vinik-Brisebois-Cooper
Jul 22, 2010
5,518
1,027
Yeah, I just don't see it. Obviously I have no clue what he'll do, or what he's asking for, but for all we know he could be demanding 9-10 for 3-4 years. I've wanted to trade him for years now, not because I dislike him or think he's a bad player, I just think two guys making 4-5 instead of Stammer making 8-10 makes us a better team. We'd still have top end talent and now better depth. Right now we're basically a worse Toronto. Top heavy team with no depth that has trouble getting out of the first round.

Forwards are definitely top heavy, capwise. I think 8m for Stamkos and his production for the 3-4 year window is reasonable. Sergachev at 8.5m is pretty rough, IMO.
 

Rschmitz

Finding new ways to cheat
Feb 27, 2002
16,262
8,797
Tampa Bay
Just give stamkos a 8 year 40 million dollar contract for 5 million per year front load the deal make 8 million per year for the first 4 years and then 2 million a year for the last 4 years front load it he probably plays like 4-5 years then retires

Let's talk about this some more actually. This could potentially work so it's worth exploring, but it has it's drawbacks and is complicated.

1. If a player retires their contract is void, they receive no more $$$$

2. A contract signed after the player is age 35 carries the entire cap hit even after the player retires. Stamkos is age 34 so this isn't an issue, but it is worth noting as a potential catalyst for getting something like this done now if it is ever going to get done.

3. A contract signed before age 35, will have a cap penalty equal to the AAV minus the agreed upon salary for each remaining year of the contract if the player retires. So hypothetical using the proposed idea of an 8 year 40m deal; let's say with an 8m salary over the first 4 years and then 2m over the last 4 years. The Lightning would incur a cap penalty of 2m over those 4 years.(4m aav - 2m salary) x 4 years

Alternatively if his salary was 9m over the first 4 years, the Lightning would be on the hook for 3m a year for the last 4 years.(4m aav -1m salary) x 4 years

What makes this cumbersome and complicated to work out is first of all, your asking the player to anticipate retiring at a given date. Secondly, you're also trying to time the teams rebuild to fall in line with that retirement date. We don't need cap space when we are blowing everything up, right? However, your banking on the cap structure to work out as anticipated over a 4 year interval and that just rarely happens.

Typically, I would completely dismiss a scenario like this. However, JBB's MO has been to find clever work arounds to the cap and this falls in line with what he likes to do. It actually makes sense to do it too.

Having said that, the reports coming out sound like nothing is getting worked on, so who the f*** knows?
 

Todd1a

Kucherov or prospect
Jun 19, 2014
16,702
2,873
orlando, fl
Let's talk about this some more actually. This could potentially work so it's worth exploring, but it has it's drawbacks and is complicated.

1. If a player retires their contract is void, they receive no more $$$$

2. A contract signed after the player is age 35 carries the entire cap hit even after the player retires. Stamkos is age 34 so this isn't an issue, but it is worth noting as a potential catalyst for getting something like this done now if it is ever going to get done.

3. A contract signed before age 35, will have a cap penalty equal to the AAV minus the agreed upon salary for each remaining year of the contract if the player retires. So hypothetical using the proposed idea of an 8 year 40m deal; let's say with an 8m salary over the first 4 years and then 2m over the last 4 years. The Lightning would incur a cap penalty of 2m over those 4 years.(4m aav - 2m salary) x 4 years

Alternatively if his salary was 9m over the first 4 years, the Lightning would be on the hook for 3m a year for the last 4 years.(4m aav -1m salary) x 4 years

What makes this cumbersome and complicated to work out is first of all, your asking the player to anticipate retiring at a given date. Secondly, you're also trying to time the teams rebuild to fall in line with that retirement date. We don't need cap space when we are blowing everything up, right? However, your banking on the cap structure to work out as anticipated over a 4 year interval and that just rarely happens.

Typically, I would completely dismiss a scenario like this. However, JBB's MO has been to find clever work arounds to the cap and this falls in line with what he likes to do. It actually makes sense to do it too.

Having said that, the reports coming out sound like nothing is getting worked on, so who the f*** knows?
Ya i figured we could get cap penalty’s but after 5 years from now this team will probably be rebuilding anyway and the cap will still go up . So I don’t really care if later in the years we have cap penalties in JBB mind he’s going for it for the next 2-3 years least you don’t bring in a 34 year old Mac on defense if your not going for the cup .

But yes in terms of trying to keep cirell this 8 year contract makes sense smaller cap hit and Stamkos makes 8 million per year for the first 8 years and we just have to get rid of jeannot and Sheary and basically the math works.

It wouldn’t shock me if they did the same thing with Hedman to try and get the cap number lower so they can find some depth players in free agency for lines 3 and 4 the next 1-3 years
 

Todd1a

Kucherov or prospect
Jun 19, 2014
16,702
2,873
orlando, fl
Let's talk about this some more actually. This could potentially work so it's worth exploring, but it has it's drawbacks and is complicated.

1. If a player retires their contract is void, they receive no more $$$$

2. A contract signed after the player is age 35 carries the entire cap hit even after the player retires. Stamkos is age 34 so this isn't an issue, but it is worth noting as a potential catalyst for getting something like this done now if it is ever going to get done.

3. A contract signed before age 35, will have a cap penalty equal to the AAV minus the agreed upon salary for each remaining year of the contract if the player retires. So hypothetical using the proposed idea of an 8 year 40m deal; let's say with an 8m salary over the first 4 years and then 2m over the last 4 years. The Lightning would incur a cap penalty of 2m over those 4 years.(4m aav - 2m salary) x 4 years

Alternatively if his salary was 9m over the first 4 years, the Lightning would be on the hook for 3m a year for the last 4 years.(4m aav -1m salary) x 4 years

What makes this cumbersome and complicated to work out is first of all, your asking the player to anticipate retiring at a given date. Secondly, you're also trying to time the teams rebuild to fall in line with that retirement date. We don't need cap space when we are blowing everything up, right? However, your banking on the cap structure to work out as anticipated over a 4 year interval and that just rarely happens.

Typically, I would completely dismiss a scenario like this. However, JBB's MO has been to find clever work arounds to the cap and this falls in line with what he likes to do. It actually makes sense to do it too.

Having said that, the reports coming out sound like nothing is getting worked on, so who the f*** knows?
Also remember it was confirmed by Pierre Lebrun the lightning did offer killorn 2.5 million cap hit per year for 8 years and we know darn well they probably front loaded it for probably the first 3-4 years. That deal would have taken killorn till age 41 absolutely no way killorn plays that long so JBB doesn’t care about later cap penalties lol 😂
 

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