Our talent level may have dropped, but based on talent last years team shoulda had another maybe 20 points. So if we play to our true talent level i could see us hitting 85-90 points at minimum. Not a great season, but should be watchable.
2023-2024 Blues Multi-Purpose Thread
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izzy
go
the entire division is pretty non-threatening which gives a chance, other than dropping across from the wildcard. I think Dallas easily makes it the furthest the next 2-3 years until Bedard and the rest of the freakshow Hawks prospect pool come together
Avs depth too weak, goaltending is suspect
Wild are the Wild
Blues D is weird, Binner dead
nashville/winnipeg lol
I think season is one of the first times I am coming in with no expectations. I can see them barely making the playoffs or finishing around the same spot as last year.
Linkens Mastery
Conductor of the TankTown Express
I'm hoping they have one more poor season before Snuggy and Dvorsky come over next season.
STL fan in MN
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I think they’ll be slightly better. Agree with Makorityof1 that on paper, they took a slight step back but they played so below their ability last season that even playing relatively well like they did down the stretch last season should result in a slightly above .500 record.
Bobby Orrtuzzo
Ya know
If we’re gonna be bad, I at least hope it’s really bad. None of this finish with the 15th pick bullshit
Thallis
No half measures
Idk, whenever I look at our roster & projected lineup I feel like bottom 5 is a real possibility. Teams around us aren't good, but they still have the pieces to stay ahead and Arizona did get better.
I don’t want to be that bad. Losing breeds losing. We don’t want that culture. This draft looks to have multiple potential top pair d. Assuming that we aren’t a contender this year, id be confident that we could get another high end prospect (on level of snuggy or dvo) with pick in 8-10 range.
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Nick Ritchie signs PTO with Blues
Ritchie joins Blues on professional tryout | NHL.com
Wouldn’t be surprised if he steals a spot from the likes of Walker, MacEachern, etc.
Ritchie joins Blues on professional tryout | NHL.com
Wouldn’t be surprised if he steals a spot from the likes of Walker, MacEachern, etc.
Reality Czech
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He averages about 3 hits per game, sounds like the type of player we could use. He actually had more hits than any of our players had last year despite playing only 58 games. 21 points ain't bad either. I like it.
joe galiba
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Oberyn
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Brian39
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Agreed that Blais is not a 24 goal and 53 point player, but disagree about the other two.
In the 3 years prior to last season, Vrana played at a 32 goal and 60 point pace. 29 goal pace in 2019/20, 31 goal pace in 2020/21, and 41 goal pace in 2021/22 (smallest sample of the 3 and the first year he missed significant time). He was at a 41 goal and 57 point pace in 20 games with us. I don't expect Vrana to be a 40 goal scorer this year, but his talent level is absolutely 30+ goals and 60 points. He played pretty well in line with his last 100 NHL games , just with a slight uptick in goals and slight downtick in assists.
Tarasenko played at 21 goal and 62 point pace last year (while giving us just 38 games). Taking Vrana and Tarasenko's Blues production from last season together, we got 20 goals and 43 points (in 58 games). Is it really being that optimistic to expect Vrana to top 20 goals and 43 points this season? That is exactly his projection if he plays 58 games at his previous 3 year pace. I don't consider that an optimistic expectation. Playing at his career baseline, but having something else that keeps him off the ice for 24 games seems downright conservative in a contract year.
Kap has played at a 15-21 goal pace and 45-61 point pace every year he has gotten 15+ minutes a night. He was well below that when the Pens played him less than 15 minutes a night. I don't expect his 28 goal pace to hold up over a season, but I think the 49 point pace we saw from him is right in line with his talent level in a middle 6 role. Barby gave us 10 goals and 29 points in 59 games. Barby and Kap combined gave us 20 goals and 43 points in exactly 82 games. Is that not just the modest expectation for Kap?
While I think Blais played above his talent level, I don't think Vrana or Kap did. They played pretty well in line with a level they'd hit multiple times before. Both come with question marks and reasons that they could regress, but it isn't like Blais where they did something they'd never done before.
Then you have the addition of Hayes.
Hayes has played at a 45-55 point pace for 7 straight seasons (and a 53 point pace in 20 games with Winnipeg where he played 15:17 a night). ROR got us 19 points and a -24 in 40 games last year and then wasn't replaced. Acciari had 18 points and a -6 in 54 games. I get that they are playing different roles than Hayes will play, but are we not expecting Hayes to outscore the two of them combined? I'll be pretty surprised if Hayes plays 70 games and doesn't outscore the production we got from ROR and Acciari combined in their 94 total games played for the Blues last year.
This forward group has a lot of questions about how well they can help the defense, but I really don't get the idea that we shouldn't expect a step forward in offensive output. We've more than replaced the actual production we got over a full season from the guys that they are replacing even if they just hit modest projections. Then you have tangible reason to believe that you can get more from the bottom 6. Sunny had 28 points in 67 games last year. Neighbours, Alexandrov, and Torpo are all young enough (and showed enough actual improvement last year) to create a reasonable expectation that 1 or 2 of them can take another step. Blais should regress (and will likely miss some time), but seems capable of playing at a 10-15 goal and 30-35 point pace when healthy.
I look at the candidates for our bottom 4 forwards and see way more scoring potential (and potential to adequately handle temporary middle 6 usage) than last year's group. This group is noticeably deeper than last year's group and we're bringing back every single player that had 30+ points last season. I think Vrana should be expected to at least match what Vrana/Tarasenko gave the team last year and I think Kap should be expected to at least match what Kap/Barby gave the team last year. Hayes should absolutely produce more than ROR (and his lack of replacement) brought last year and while he isn't nearly as capable defensively as ROR should be, we got horrible results with ROR on the ice last season.
I very, very much expect this team to finish higher than 16th in goals for even if none of Thomas, Buch, and Kyrou exceed their totals from last season. Assuming zero improvement from the established top 6-7 forwards, I think it is more than reasonable to expect to add 10+ goals from the bottom 6. We have 11-13 guys who I think could reasonably play at a 30+ point pace this year ahead of Walker, MacMac, and any rookies. I look at last year's roster coming into camp and see 8-10 such guys. Maybe 11 if you include Neighbours.
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joe galiba
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ah, good tools, no toolbox
well 4th line for Berube will be a good fit then, as he likes uncomplicated direct play for the lower end of the lineup, no toolbox required
Brian39
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I expect the goaltending to be better. I've been beating this drum since we traded Elliott, but we play the starter too damn much. We wanted Allen to be a 65 start workhorse and we've wanted Binner to be a 65 start workhorse. We have repeatedly seen our goalies start the year playing well and then have a rough patch (that often extends into a really bad season). Greiss was not a good goalie last year (or the year before) and couldn't be counted on to take enough starts from Binner. I've liked everything I've seen about Hofer and absolutely love that he handles the puck similarly to Binner. It is nice for the D to not have to adjust their breakout scheme when the backup plays.
I think he can be good enough to give this team 25+ starts this season. I'm not predicting a goalie controversy in his age 23 rookie season, but I think he provides enough of an upgrade to Greiss that we can ease the mental/physical burden on Binner.
The huge question is how much a new D coach improves the blueline. I'm not sold that this group is capable of being top 10 even under an ideal system, but I also don't believe that the talent of this group id nearly as bad as bottom 5 in the league. I will be surprised if we are bottom 5 accross the board in every defensive category next year.
All in all, I expect the goals for to be somewhere in the 6th-14th range while the goals against improves anywhere into the 12th-25th range.
I fully expect this team to earn more than the 81 points they did last year. And if they aren't on track for that by the 40 game mark, I fully expect Berube to be let go and for a new coach to provide enough of a dead cat bounce to push them over that mark by season's end.I haven't seen any over/under point total lines set by oddsmakers yet, but I will absolutely hammer the over if they set us at 81. Fanduel has our over/under set at 86.5 points. That feels like a much more reasonable line than 81 to me.
I think he can be good enough to give this team 25+ starts this season. I'm not predicting a goalie controversy in his age 23 rookie season, but I think he provides enough of an upgrade to Greiss that we can ease the mental/physical burden on Binner.
The huge question is how much a new D coach improves the blueline. I'm not sold that this group is capable of being top 10 even under an ideal system, but I also don't believe that the talent of this group id nearly as bad as bottom 5 in the league. I will be surprised if we are bottom 5 accross the board in every defensive category next year.
All in all, I expect the goals for to be somewhere in the 6th-14th range while the goals against improves anywhere into the 12th-25th range.
I fully expect this team to earn more than the 81 points they did last year. And if they aren't on track for that by the 40 game mark, I fully expect Berube to be let go and for a new coach to provide enough of a dead cat bounce to push them over that mark by season's end.
execwrite1
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Linkens Mastery
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I think a legit #1 LD would do wonders for this team.
Another top 10 pick and trading Buch for a haul and trading Vrana and Kapanen is my best case scenario.
Yeah, Strickland has been saying the past couple weeks that the Blues wanted to add one more forward for depth.
Very high chance Ritchie makes the team given his résumé.
I think barring any injuries, the 14 forwards are set. Thomas, Kyrou, Saad, Schenn, Buchnevich, Blais, Hayes, Vrana, Kapanen, Neighbours, Alexandrov, Toropchenko, Sundqvist and Ritchie.
That’s pretty good depth. Walker and Mac likely belong in the AHL anyways and can be callup options for the 4th line. Dean and Bolduc start in the AHL and will eventually see callups as well once injuries hit or we start selling.
Memento
Future Authoress.
Me, I'd go with Isaac Ratcliffe. They play the same position, he's younger than Ritchie, and you can't teach 6'6" with skill and grit.
Yeah I think one of them will get a spot and I’d be happy if Ratcliffe shows enough to win that battle. My guess is it will be Ritchie though, but we’ll see!
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