2023-2024 Blues Multi-Purpose Thread

[Xerloris]

That is a highly, highly debatable assertion.

We traded him coming out of the all star break and bye week. Our first game without him was the team's first game in 11 days and we blew a 5-2 lead in the final 11 minutes of the game on the way to a 6-5 OT win against Arizona. That game would have been one of the low points of the season if 3 on 3 hadn't gone our way. Then we beat Florida in Spencer Knight's last start before going to the player's assistance program (we scored 5 goals on 27 shots while Binner allowed 2 on 36 shots). Then we beat New Jersey 4-2 in a game where shots were even. A streak is a streak, but I'm not sure that these 3 games demonstrate that the team turned some corner. There was still plenty of 'bad' to take away from these games.

Then we lost our next 6 games to close out the month of February.

A 3 game win streak out of the all star break without Tarasenko doesn't tell me a ton. We opened the season with a 3 game win streak. We had a 7 game win streak in November. We had a 4 game win streak in December. We didn't win 3 straight again after this little streak in February. This team was streaky all year. Winning 3 then losing 6 doesn't strike me as a stark improvement the moment he was gone.

I think the evidence we can see is much murkier than you suggest about the team playing better the very day he was gone. That 3rd period implosion against Arizona in that 1st game was exactly the same team I remember watching the previous 50 games. That 6 game losing streak was right in line with the team I remember from the previous 50 games.

Come on now, you know as well as anyone here that playing better can be completely seperate from winning or losing. You can play better while still losing.

 

[Brian39]

Come on now, you know as well as anyone here that playing better can be completely seperate from winning or losing. You can play better while still losing.

And I don't think we played better. You are stating it as an obvious, undisputed fact and I very much disagree. I've offered some evidence to back my opinion. I've yet to see any from you even though you've claimed that the evidence we can see is that we played the very day Tarasenko was gone.

That Arizona game very much looked like a shitty team trying to give away a game to another shitty team. I was in my seats directly behind the goal that Arizona scored 5 goals on that night. We went down 2-0 in the 1st, climbed back in the 2nd and then the 3rd was a complete shit show that looked more like a scrimmage than an NHL game. Nothing about this game told me that we were coming together as a team and showing improvement. As usual, we had spurts where we looked good and spurts where we looked horrendous.

Want to talk about how we played independent of the outcome? Here was our xGF% at 5 on 5 for the 8 games following the Arizona game:

2/14 vs Florida: 46.5%
2/16 vs NJ: 46.9%
2/18 vs Colorado: 35.6%
2/19 vs Ottawa: 48.7%
2/21 vs Carolina: 31.1%
2/23 vs Vancouver: 16.1%
2/25 vs Pittsburgh: 28.7%
2/28 vs Seattle: 37.7%

We got throttled in most of these games. In the two wins, we got outplayed and Binner was excellent. In the 6 losses, we got outscored 26-11 and were badly outplayed in 5 of the games. That final 4 game stretch was especially brutal. High danger chances at 5 on 5 were 57-24 in our opponents' favor over those 4 games. That is putrid.

So yes, while you can play better while getting poor results, I don't see any evidence that it is what happened in the immediate wake of trading Tarasenko. Frankly, I think we were very fortunate to go 3-4-2.

So what is this evidence that we immediately started playing better the day Tarasenko was gone?

 

[Xerloris]

And I don't think we played better. You are stating it as an obvious, undisputed fact and I very much disagree. I've offered some evidence to back my opinion. I've yet to see any from you even though you've claimed that the evidence we can see is that we played the very day Tarasenko was gone.

That Arizona game very much looked like a shitty team trying to give away a game to another shitty team. I was in my seats directly behind the goal that Arizona scored 5 goals on that night. We went down 2-0 in the 1st, climbed back in the 2nd and then the 3rd was a complete shit show that looked more like a scrimmage than an NHL game. Nothing about this game told me that we were coming together as a team and showing improvement. As usual, we had spurts where we looked good and spurts where we looked horrendous.

Want to talk about how we played independent of the outcome? Here was our xGF% at 5 on 5 for the 8 games following the Arizona game:

2/14 vs Florida: 46.5%
2/16 vs NJ: 46.9%
2/18 vs Colorado: 35.6%
2/19 vs Ottawa: 48.7%
2/21 vs Carolina: 31.1%
2/23 vs Vancouver: 16.1%
2/25 vs Pittsburgh: 28.7%
2/28 vs Seattle: 37.7%

We got throttled in most of these games. In the two wins, we got outplayed and Binner was excellent. In the 6 losses, we got outscored 26-11 and were badly outplayed in 5 of the games. That final 4 game stretch was especially brutal. High danger chances at 5 on 5 were 57-24 in our opponents' favor over those 4 games. That is putrid.

So yes, while you can play better while getting poor results, I don't see any evidence that it is what happened in the immediate wake of trading Tarasenko. Frankly, I think we were very fortunate to go 3-4-2.

So what is this evidence that we immediately started playing better the day Tarasenko was gone?

If all you're going to do is stat watch to try and prove your point there's no reason to argue. The team was playing better as soon as Tarasenko was gone and they continued to get better after each player got traded. Stats do not tell the story of a game and you know that just as well as anyone. Did you forget how bad this team was this past year? Of course the stats won't look good but that doesn't mean the players weren't playing better as a team during those terrible stat games.

 

[Reality Czech]

If all you're going to do is stat watch to try and prove your point there's no reason to argue. The team was playing better as soon as Tarasenko was gone and they continued to get better after each player got traded. Stats do not tell the story of a game and you know that just as well as anyone. Did you forget how bad this team was this past year? Of course the stats won't look good but that doesn't mean the players weren't playing better as a team during those terrible stat games.

So you're sticking with the story that they were definitely playing better but still losing? And it was all because Tarasenko was out of the lineup? Are you aware how ridiculous that sounds?

 

[Xerloris]

So you're sticking with the story that they were definitely playing better but still losing? And it was all because Tarasenko was out of the lineup? Are you aware how ridiculous that sounds?

Did I say it was because Tarasenko was out of the lineup? No I did not. Could it be a huge coincidence? Sure. Could it be that they had a break and the games were after the all star break? Sure. Could it be that it had nothing to do with him being out of the lineup even though we all know and we all commented how he was phoning it in this entire season and was putting out nearly no effort at all. Sure. It could also just be that he was out of the locker room as opposed to the the lineup. Take your pick. The only thing I know for sure is that the team played better once people started getting shipped out and that started with Tarasenko.

It just occurred to me though that maybe it had nothing to do with the subtraction of Tarasenko but the addition of Sammy Blais. Someone that truly wants to be here can do wonders for the morale of a team.

 

[Reality Czech]

Did I say it was because Tarasenko was out of the lineup? No I did not. Could it be a huge coincidence? Sure. Could it be that they had a break and the games were after the all star break? Sure. Could it be that it had nothing to do with him being out of the lineup even though we all know and we all commented how he was phoning it in this entire season and was putting out nearly no effort at all. Sure. It could also just be that he was out of the locker room as opposed to the the lineup. Take your pick. The only thing I know for sure is that the team played better once people started getting shipped out and that started with Tarasenko.

It just occurred to me though that maybe it had nothing to do with the subtraction of Tarasenko but the addition of Sammy Blais. Someone that truly wants to be here can do wonders for the morale of a team.

Sure, or it could be none of those reasons. Maybe it was a wake up call to the rest of the team to see respected veteran teammates shipped out. Teams go through so many ups and downs over the course of a season for any number of reasons. Honestly who cares at this point.

 

[Renard]

Quote from Backes:

When it comes to specific memories with him and I, he had a little bit of a learning curve coming into the league, and there was the time where I thought he was being selfish or lazy in a game. I went after him in one practice to try to send a message that that’s not acceptable for us. We got heated, but shortly after that, he came up to me and said, “I understand it.” I think the message was received, and he was a lot better after that. He was a guy that could have sulked from something like that, but he took a message and really rose to the occasion and was a superior player after that, buying into what we were doing as a team. It’s tough to have a glorious ending with any organization, where you ride out into the sunset. I don’t know what his beef was, but I think over time those thorns start to dull a bit and, for me, he’ll be remembered as a supreme talent, a supreme goal scorer, a guy who could win games for you on his own.

'We had something special': Ex-Blues share their favorite Tarasenko stories

After 11 illustrious years in St. Louis, Tarasenko has moved on, and so have the Blues. How will he be remembered?

theathletic.com

Teammates scrapping in practice isn't such a rare occurrence. These guys are intense competitors and one incident doesn't define a player or person. Willing to bet Backes and Tarasenko still respect each other. Maybe Vladi did need to grow up a bit but the same could be said of a lot of guys. Who's gonna scrap with Kyrou in practice this season to wake him up? That's the role of veteran leaders on any team.

Thanks for posting Backes' comments.

As for teammates scrapping in practice, it happens. But I cant remember any other time that the team captain wanted to make a public point of roughing up a guy for not going with the program. So its once in 56 years.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

JR predicted that Krug is getting traded during the season. So you know he's totally never getting traded now

 

[Xerloris]

JR predicted that Krug is getting traded during the season. So you know he's totally never getting traded now

If he plays great he'll be traded, if he sucks we're stuck with him for life.

 

[Reality Czech]

Thanks for posting Backes' comments.

As for teammates scrapping in practice, it happens. But I cant remember any other time that the team captain wanted to make a public point of roughing up a guy for not going with the program. So its once in 56 years.

You don't think Pronger, Sutter, Plager or anyone else ever had to send a message to a teammate at any point? The thing is most of the time hockey players prefer to keep their issues inside the room. Did Backes intentionally make it public or is it just the fact that reporters are everywhere nowadays? If Backes did go out of his way to make it public, that's pretty unprofessional of him but I bet that's not the case. I bet teammates scrap or have disagreements more often than most fans realize.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

JR predicted that Krug is getting traded during the season. So you know he's totally never getting traded now

I just wonder if he already has a trade partner lined up and the framework for a trade in place. If it’s something like that, JR could end up being right.

Brian’s post about the post-deadline stats was a little depressing. I had managed to forget how bad they were in that stretch.

 

[Reality Czech]

I just wonder if he already has a trade partner lined up and the framework for a trade in place. If it’s something like that, JR could end up being right.

Brian’s post about the post-deadline stats was a little depressing. I had managed to forget how bad they were in that stretch.

Being that bad helped us get Dvorsky, so there's that at least.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

I just wonder if he already has a trade partner lined up and the framework for a trade in place. If it’s something like that, JR could end up being right.

If they have trade partner already lined up, JR would be last to know.

 

[Brian39]

If all you're going to do is stat watch to try and prove your point there's no reason to argue. The team was playing better as soon as Tarasenko was gone and they continued to get better after each player got traded. Stats do not tell the story of a game and you know that just as well as anyone. Did you forget how bad this team was this past year? Of course the stats won't look good but that doesn't mean the players weren't playing better as a team during those terrible stat games.

Stats absolutely do tell a story. Results absolutely do tell a story. Getting badly out-chanced over and over and over is a very strong indication that you are getting outplayed.

I know full well how bad this team was last season. They also sucked just as much in the month of February. They were a bottom 7 team in damn near every meaningful category in the month of February:

Standings points (26th), wins (tied for 26th), and points percentage (27th). Actual results put us right in the basement.

At 5 on 5, the underlying metrics got even worse. Corsi percentage (30th), fenwick percentage (30th), shots on goal percentage (30th), goals percentage (31st), scoring chance percentage (31st), high danger chance percentage (31st), and high danger goals for percentage (28th) were all bottom 5 in the league with most of them being bottom 3.

We were badly out-shot, out-chanced, and out-scored in February and it resulted in finishing the month in the basement for wins and points percentage.

Want eye test? Sure.

Arizona was a shit show to the eye test. We didn't show up on time, we had a couple 10 minute bursts of quality play and then we packed up for the evening once we got up 5-2. There is no reality where coughing up a 5-2 lead in the final 11 minutes against the Coyotes at home is an indication of improvement.

Carolina did whatever they wanted in our end. Here's the 9 minute recap. The number of grade A chances where Binner is left fully out to dry is absurd. They had him moving side-to-side all night with the end result repeatedly being shots from within 5 feet of the crease while almost all of our chances were one and done shots from the outside of the high danger area.

Vancouver was a shooting gallery on Binner. Here's the 9 minute recap. They have multiple grade A chances in the first 2 minutes. The next several highlights are good chances, including a tick tac toe passing play leading to a goal that gets waived off. This 9 minute video is full of quality looks against Binner. The only 2 Blues shots worth showing are our shorthanded breakaway goal and a screened wrist shot from the point that absolutely had no business beating an NHL goalie. Once again, Binner is very good, but eventually the complete lack of net-front coverage or elimination of passing lanes proves too much and they score 2 goals in the final 10 minutes to erase our 2-0 lead. The stats you dismiss very accurately capture just how badly we got outshot, out-chanced and out-played in this game.

The Pens were absolutely all over us all game and Binner is the entire reason we walked away with a point. Shots were 48-27. Here's the 9 minute recap. The amount of grade A chances the Pens get in the 1st period alone is ridiculous. Malkin gets 2 shots from the low slot with little resistance in the first 2 minutes of the game. There's an uncontested jam play from the side of the goal 4:40 into the game. The rebound leads to a shot from the hash marks that hits the post. A few minutes later a turnover leads to a Pens player 1-on-1 with Binner 5 feet on top of the crease without a single Blue below our hash marks. The shot sails high. A couple minutes later Crosby is left unattended directly in front of the goal leading to a cross ice back door play. Binner gets his pad on it. A minute later there is a rush chance that leads to a fairly low quality backhand. This was the Pens 18th shot of the game and there is 8 minutes left in the 1st. We're at 4 shots. We show life in the 2nd, but then the Pens carry the play in the 3rd. The OT winner is a back door tap in with zero competent defensive-zone coverage. A team taking the 1st period completely off and bleeding high quality chances certainly looks a hell of a lot like the first 50 games of the year.

This team unambiguously and resoundingly sucked in the month of February. Your narrative that they started improving the instant Tarasenko left isn't based in reality. Neither stats nor eye tests support it. We still took off long stretches of games, we still gifted teams zone entries, we still allowed teams free range to camp out in front of the net, we still made too many turnovers, we still relied too heavily on one-and-done offensive looks, and we still deserved to lose damn near every night.

Any improvement didn't start until March after we shipped out 3 more guys and brought in Kap/Vrana. The underlying metrics still weren't pretty in March, but that is when we started winning some games, pushing toward the middle of the pack in shot percentage, and started actually outscoring teams.

 

[Majorityof1]

If they have trade partner already lined up, JR would be last to know.

Not necessarily true. JR absolutely has crap for sources with the Blues. But the national guys at the athletic have sources with other teams and feed him stuff from time to time that relates to the Blues.

 

[Brian39]

It wouldn't surprise me at all if Krug is traded mid-season. With that said, I think it is worth noting that JR's prediction came in his '10 Bold Predictions for the 2023/24 Blues' article. There was nothing in the article about sources telling him that or him hearing that a trade is lined up. It was simlply premised on the logic that things will be awkward after the public trade attempt, we have a lot of D depth, a desire to get Perunovich into the lineup, and we have a need to reduce cap on the blueline.

This prediction was very much along the same lines that we all speculate about here. He is saying that there could be enough interest to get a deal done if Krug can return to form as an effective PP QB.

 

[Mike Liut]

Krug is very good when healthy if he plays his correct role. 3rd paring and PP specialist

 

[Majorityof1]

Krug is very good when healthy if he plays his correct role. 3rd paring and PP specialist

I think "he is very good" when talking about an NHL player and "his correct role is 3rd pairing" are antithetical. I mean, any NHL player is very good when compared to the average human being. But when compared to the average NHL player, someone whose proper role is the third pairing is below average for NHL regulars. Krug is being paid an above the median salary for an NHL defenseman. His role should be above the median as well. That is not 3rd pairing.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

I think "he is very good" when talking about an NHL player and "his correct role is 3rd pairing" are antithetical. I mean, any NHL player is very good when compared to the average human being. But when compared to the average NHL player, someone whose proper role is the third pairing is below average for NHL regulars. Krug is being paid an above the median salary for an NHL defenseman. His role should be above the median as well. That is not 3rd pairing.

That ship has sailed. Question isn’t whether he is worth contract, he’s clearly not, but rather whether setting aside his salary is he able to play meaningful minutes and help the club. Last year he was not. Prior year he was effective in limited role. If he can be again he will be much easier to deal to club that he would consider.

 

[Majorityof1]

That ship has sailed. Question isn’t whether he is worth contract, he’s clearly not, but rather whether setting aside his salary is he able to play meaningful minutes and help the club. Last year he was not. Prior year he was effective in limited role. If he can be again he will be much easier to deal to club that he would consider.

The ship has sailed for us. But the discussion isn't about us. It is about whether we can trade him. The ship has not sailed for another team. If his proper role is 3rd pairing, are they going to take on $6.5M for someone who is a very good bottom pair player? No.

He needs to play like a good 2nd pair guy who is great PP QB in order to come close to justifying that price tag. And the only way that is happening is if Army gets some GM very, very drunk, or some team has a lot of cap space and very little sense.

 

[joe galiba]

The ship has sailed for us. But the discussion isn't about us. It is about whether we can trade him. The ship has not sailed for another team. If his proper role is 3rd pairing, are they going to take on $6.5M for someone who is a very good bottom pair player? No.

He needs to play like a good 2nd pair guy who is great PP QB in order to come close to justifying that price tag. And the only way that is happening is if Army gets some GM very, very drunk, or some team has a lot of cap space and very little sense.

or he simply plays like he did 2 years ago again and stays healthy

 

[Brian39]

I think "he is very good" when talking about an NHL player and "his correct role is 3rd pairing" are antithetical. I mean, any NHL player is very good when compared to the average human being. But when compared to the average NHL player, someone whose proper role is the third pairing is below average for NHL regulars. Krug is being paid an above the median salary for an NHL defenseman. His role should be above the median as well. That is not 3rd pairing.

But you're leaving out the extremely important "and PP specialist" portion of his role.

Torey Krug at his best was arguably the best PP QB in the league. I think that ship sailed a few years ago, but I believe that he is still very much capable of being a top 10 PP QB in the league. That has real, tangible value that can't simply be ignored when talking about an NHL player. A 3rd pair D who is also a top 10-15 PP QB in the league is a much different conversation than simply a 3rd pair D.

He was 48th in points per game among D men with 10+ games played last year and that was getting squarely 3rd pair minutes at even strength. A return to form on the PP would get him inside the top 40 and potentially inside the top 30.

There is a good argument to be made that being a top 30-40 offensive D man in the league while playing a 3rd pair and top PP QB role is very good. I'd say it falls short of that into 'good' territory and the level of defensive lapses can push it down further. But you can't simply ignore what a player does best and focus only on the weaknesses when determining how he is compared to the rest of the league.

None of this is to say that Krug is worth his contract. None of this is to say that he's a lock to get back into this performance. But you have to factor in everything in a player's toolbox when examining him.

Edit: FWIW, I don't think that the ship has fully sailed on Krug being a positive contributor to the Blues. However, it demands that everything breaks perfectly without a significant roster change. First, a new D zone system needs to dramatically change the way we contest zone entries and protect the front of our net. Second, one of Scandella/Tucker has to play like a legit 3/4 D man while receiving 3/4 minutes./deployment. Third, having one of those guys playing like an actual defensively sound 2nd pair D man allows us to better balance the workload/deployment of Faulk and Parayko. I'm not holding my breath for the 2nd one, but it is within the realm of possibility. The 3rd one is contingent on the 2nd one, so everything has to break just right.

But IF all 3 of those happen and we are able to actually run two competent pairs in the top 4, then I think Krug can positively impact the game at even strength from a sheltered 3rd pair role.

I'm not sure for how many years that is sustainable. And that doesn't mean that he would be worth the cap allocation. And I still firmly believe that the team is best suited by moving him. But I do think it is premature to say that there is no chance he can positively contribute in a 3rd pair and top unit PP role.

 

[MissouriMook]

Kasperi Kapanen convicted of aggravated DUI in Finland; fined 108 700€)

News just broken by the Finnish state broadcasting company: NHL-jääkiekkoilija Kasperi Kapasta epäillään törkeästä rattijuopumuksesta Court case was filed 23rd of August, and the case will be dealt with in court in February 2024. Finnish Criminal code: Section 4 (1198/2002) Driving while...

forums.hfboards.com

Not sure how reliable the source is, but if this is true down to the timing of the trial it might make a deadline deal more difficult/

 

[HelloCookie]

YLE is the Finnish national broadcasting company and generally speaking a reputable news outlet. Their source is a court filing.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Kasperi Kapanen convicted of aggravated DUI in Finland; fined 108 700€)

News just broken by the Finnish state broadcasting company: NHL-jääkiekkoilija Kasperi Kapasta epäillään törkeästä rattijuopumuksesta Court case was filed 23rd of August, and the case will be dealt with in court in February 2024. Finnish Criminal code: Section 4 (1198/2002) Driving while...

forums.hfboards.com

Not sure how reliable the source is, but if this is true down to the timing of the trial it might make a deadline deal more difficult/

gee, how are we going to survive without the 5th round pick he would have returned? hopefully vrana keeps his nose clean so we can still get a 3rd or 4th for him.