Another top 10 pick and trading Buch for a haul and trading Vrana and Kapanen is my best case scenario.
I just don't think I can say that there is any ideal scenario for me that involves trading Buch. This team was so god damn bad when he wasn't on the ice last year and I think there is a really strong chance that a Buch trade kicks off a a multi-year rebuild.
We played at a 60 point pace without him in the lineup last year (6-11-2) vs an 87 point pace with him in the lineup (31-27-5).
He was a +14 on a team that finished with a -38 goal differential. He led our forwards in time on ice per game. Forwards #2-6 in time on ice per game finished the year -8, -27, -24, -38, and -18.
At 5 on 5, he had a +21 goal differential, outscoring the other team 53-32. Without Buch on the ice, the team got outscored 156-127 for a -29 goal differential.
We overwhelmingly outscored other teams with Buch on the ice. His 62.35% goals for percentage was 16th in the NHL among forwards with 800+ minutes played. 13 of the 15 people ahead of him on the list played for teams that finished with 108+ points. The other two are Matthew Tkachuk and Matt Barzal.
We were a clear playoff caliber team with Buch on the ice and then we got our doors absolutely blown off the instant he left the ice. He essentially gives you a top 6 caliber line no matter who you put him out there with. And no, I do not mean that figuratively.
There was exactly 3 members of the Blues organization who had a negative goal differential during their 5 on 5 time with Buch last year: Ryan O'Reilly (outscored 5-4 in 85 minutes together), Steven Santini (outscored 1-0 in 10 minutes together), and Thomas Greiss (outscored 7-6 in 151 minutes together). For the record, Buch played at 5on 5 with 34 total teammates last year, played 30+ minutes with 25 teammates last year, played 60+ minutes with 21 teammates, and played 90+ minutes with 11 teammates.
It didn't matter who we put out there with him. If Binner was in net, we weren't getting outscored with Buch on the ice. Full stop. He also played the 2nd strongest quality of competition of anyone on the team (2nd only to ROR). He was consistently outscoring the 1st lines of whatever team we played against no matter who his line mates were. And then the rest of the team got demolished when he left the ice. I am very, very concerned about how bad this team gets if we trade Buch.