Prospect Info: 2023 1st Rd Selection - #28 OA (via BOS, WSH) - C, Easton Cowan [London Knights, OHL; [Height 5.11 -- Weight 185]
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LDN
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- Sep 29, 2017
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Let me ask you something. Do you think NHL teams need a scouting staff? Or should they just go off lists by Craig Button, Bob Mackenzie, et cetera. Like you are doing?
Historic data has proven that nhl scouting staffs leave much to be desired when it comes to draft selection. The success rate after round 2 is about 12% in finding +100 game nhlers. Even in round 1 it’s only 60%. Armchair scouts could have matched those numbers, particularly with the amount of game footage and data available today.
scouting today is all about choosing priorities and finding rare gems in the late rounds for underexposed or overage players playing in obscurity. Guys like Thommie Bergman excelled in that role. Removing bias is critical.
The leafs could probably could lay off half of their scouting staff and it would have little impact.
I don’t see any evidence that large staffs are any less prone to bias than small scouting staffs.
So don't you think the Scouting staffs are upping their odds of finding that the gem going into the late first round and beyond?
Do you not think the Leafs took the best player available for their own team needs and not a player off someone else's draft rankings? If a team is loaded at right wing and the best player available is a right winger according to rankings, you think they should take him anyway?
Some guys can light up the OHL from day one and peak and then cruise through jr with not a lot of NHL upside. Some guys can start off slow and build their skill set all the way through junior with a lot of nhl upside.
I think the leafs made a biased selection in Cowen due to their connections with Mark Hunter in London and repeated viewing of Cowen vs other prospects who’s teams were eliminated earlier in the playoffs. They placed too much emphasis on a small sample size and reached on a guy they could have taken with a second round pick if they traded down.
there were a number of players with higher upside than Cowan available at 28 especially Gulyayev and Nadeau and power forward prospects like Wahlberg and Halttunen, not to mention high end goalies like Hrabal and Gajan. David Edstrom was a really good two way C still on the board.
All of those guys project better than Cowan who I had ranked in the lower second round.
What makes you think Mark Hunter was an influence in this pick? The London Knights also produce more NHL players than most any other junior franchise.
It's very possible that all those guys you mentioned were on the Leafs shortlist. and they debated about it and ultimately chose Cowen. Basically, after the first 15/20 picks you're gambling.
Because Mark Hunter is GM of the London Knights and wants to promote his players. He’s well connected to MLSE.
Well, I don't know how connected he is still with the leafs, But remember, the London Knights are always bringing in elite kids into the organization. I seen an episode of Kippers show this week. and Bourne said Dubis purposely wouldn't draft a London night.
Everyone knows Dubas had his SSM bias as well. Any bias is unproductive when the NHL is now a global league.
If they draft London nights for the next three years. in the first round, then I will agree with you. In the last 20 years, no one's come close to producing NHL Talent Like the London Knights.
TDotMassive
Registered User
Doesn’t have to be the first round. If they start taking them all over the board then yes it would be problematic. Self limiting to one team in a global pipeline full of hockey players is absurd. The evaluation shouldn’t be the junior team or the town the player was born in, it must be how they play hockey on the ice. Everything else is a distraction.
Drafting players from the organization that produces the most NHL players seems to be a bad thing. in your mind. Some may say it's a benefit if Mark Hunter is connected to the Leafs like you say,
It’s bad if your main criteria for player selection is their junior team instead of what the player brings to the table.
Macman
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- May 15, 2004
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In this case, Cowan apparently brings a ton of compete, which is exactly what this team lacks.
Compete is great but if he can’t score more than 15 goals a season then it doesn’t matter as those guys are found throughout the league. He’s not a valuable asset as a forward unless he produces something offensively.
He finished 11th in OHL scoring during the playoffs. And second for players 18 and under.
Macman
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- May 15, 2004
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I’ll take a guy who scores 15 goals a year and competes his ass off. Most guys taken 28th don’t make it at all.
That’s a very small sample size and the guy who was first in Playoff pts/g for players under 18 was Nick Lardis who is a better skater than Cowan and still available at 28.
Hang on. You were trying to give the impression that this Cowan kid has no offensive skill. And now you're talking about this other guy using points per game average.
My point was that there were still better offensive options from the OHL never mind other leagues still on the board at 28.
