Prospect Info: 2023 14th Overall - Brayden Yager

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Let’s see..

-Buds with Shane Endicott
-1st round pick of the Penguins
-Out of the WHL

Brayden Yager D -1 and draft year stats:
63GP 34G 25A
67GP 28G 50A

Colby Armstrong D -1 and draft year stats:
72GP 36G 42A
64GP 27G 41A


Coincidence?

Oh god.

I know I said it at one point but I honestly didn't mean it!

 

[SomeDude]

Yager was at the top of Dubas' board reportedly.

I would be concerned if a GM drafted a guy not at the top of his board.

 

[Ryder71]

Then what are you kicking rocks around for? What's your amazing alternative?

I think the way they're going about it is probably the most logical way to go. Although I would probably have traded Jake before the 22 playoffs and Rusty. And I said it at the time that isn't hindsight. But if I were them I would probably look to move Jake, you can get in the lot for him including a first round pick, a prospect and an NHL player.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

That kid has NHL player written all over him. Barring injury, he'll make it. How high his ceiling is, who knows?

Why?

I mean more than the half dozen or so players taken before or after him?

Do you know how few players outside of the top five each year play 200 or more games? That is a two and a half year or better career.

Out of the over 200 prospects drafted every year maybe 35 on average looking back over ten year periods.

Why will this prospect almost certainly be one of those?

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

I think the way they're going about it is probably the most logical way to go. Although I would probably have traded Jake before the 22 playoffs and Rusty. And I said it at the time that isn't hindsight. But if I were them I would probably look to move Jake, you can get in the lot for him including a first round pick, a prospect and an NHL player.

I guess just collecting mediocre draft picks for a couple years and shrugging their shoulders when it comes to trying to build a better team around some guys who might be old but can still definitely play is just pretty uninspiring to me. Would rather try hard for a year or two then let things run their course naturally. But hey I doubt it matters much at this point TBH.

 

[Jacob]

I couldn’t put my finger on a comparison but I have it now.. Kyle Turris. The way he skates and shoots.

 

[Pancakes]

At least we can half ass that we are competitive to sell tickets and half ass that we are rebuilding to please FSG.

But Dubas is doing it “smarter”.

I think he's doing fine so far with the constraints that he has been given. Like you I disagree with the half in half out approach but I like the moves he has made so far.

If the Pens are gonna do this half assed approach I at least trust Dubas to pull it off better than Hextall. Then again I'd trust just about any gm to do a better job than Hextall lol

 

[Ryder71]

I couldn’t put my finger on a comparison but I have it now.. Kyle Turris. The way he skates and shoots.

Yeah, I thought Kyle Turris was a little bit bigger but I can see what you are saying. The one thing I did like is he really came on at the end of the season. And he doubled his assist numbers from the year before in only a few more games.

 

[Pancakes]

Before anyone gets impatient with this kid btw, it took Guentzel 4 years to make the NHL. Took Rust 5, and he didn't really stick until year 6.

We'd be crazy lucky if this kid even becomes as good as either. It'll take a bit to get him here. At least 3, maybe 4 years.

 

[Ryder71]

I guess just collecting mediocre draft picks for a couple years and shrugging their shoulders when it comes to trying to build a better team around some guys who might be old but can still definitely play is just pretty uninspiring to me. Would rather try hard for a year or two then let things run their course naturally. But hey I doubt it matters much at this point TBH.

Clearly he has to hit on these high draft picks, but you can say that for any organization. It all comes down to that. if you don't extract great value it won't much matter what you do. So I hope this kid pans out, and the kids we draft in subsequent years pan out. At least a good number of them.

 

[SomeDude]

Before anyone gets impatient with this kid btw, it took Guentzel 4 years to make the NHL. Took Rust 5, and he didn't really stick until year 6.

We'd be crazy lucky if this kid even becomes as good as either. It'll take a bit to get him here. At least 3, maybe 4 years.

Daniel Sprong made the show right outta the gate. Clearly he is the best of the bunch.

 

[Ryder71]

Before anyone gets impatient with this kid btw, it took Guentzel 4 years to make the NHL. Took Rust 5, and he didn't really stick until year 6.

We'd be crazy lucky if this kid even becomes as good as either. It'll take a bit to get him here. At least 3, maybe 4 years.

Four or five years I'd be okay. I just want him to be a contributor say in 2028. I can wait a long time, we just can't afford for 14th overall pick that turn out to be a dud. Particularly in a draft that is lauded as very deep.

 

[Gurglesons]

Clearly he has to hit on these high draft picks, but you can say that for any organization. It all comes down to that. if you don't extract great value it won't much matter what you do. So I hope this kid pans out, and the kids we draft in subsequent years pan out. At least a good number of them.

Dubas and his two players at 100 games is looking like a master mind when it comes to the draft.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

Disagree completely, I don't think in the next two years will do jack s***! Wasting time with the Dinosaurs we have will be an exercise in futility. I'm more worried about the future so how he pans out in three or four years matters a lot to me. I don't expect us to contend in any significant way till the end of the decade. And I'm hoping that this pic will be part of that at least in some form or fashion. I'm okay to wait three or four years for this player. I just hope he actually will be part of the future penguins.

You misunderstand me. It sounds more like we agree, if anything. I'm saying these are the two years they will still try for playoffs. After that there will be a rebuild or re-tool.
And I don't see how he fits in for that end of the decade timeline. Let's say they're taking an honest stab at playoffs again in 2030, is he even here at that time? Even if he is, he's 25 years old and with a year left of a bargain ELC cap hit. Two years off that wasted.

I wish we just got prospects that actually match our trajectory. Like, 2026 and 2027 1sts seem huge for us.

 

[Ryder71]

Dubas and his two players at 100 games is looking like a master mind when it comes to the draft.

Well, I'd be glad to hear that then. Lol

You misunderstand me. It sounds more like we agree, if anything. I'm saying these are the two years they will still try for playoffs. After that there will be a rebuild or re-tool.
And I don't see how he fits in for that end of the decade timeline. Let's say they're taking an honest stab at playoffs again in 2030, is he even here at that time? Even if he is, he's 25 years old and with a year left of a bargain ELC cap hit. Two years off that wasted.

I wish we just got prospects that actually match our trajectory. Like, 2026 and 2027 1sts seem huge for us.

I see your perspective on that, thanks for the clarification. No we don't see it all that differently.

 

[Peat]

Went digging...

Didn't realise his prospect thread here goes back to 2019 when he was considered a rival for 1OA in the WHL Bantam Draft along with Bedard.

If you want to be an optimist, then we just got a guy who was projected as a potential top 5 guy for a long time, and who had a rough year expanding his play style but who has the talent and dedication to jump big time.

If you want to be a pessimist, we got a guy who struggles to learn and adapt, which is a death knell for potential NHLers.

Truth is probably in the middle.

Lot of good info and reports in the last few pages of the thread.

I like that he had the 6th best ppg in the WHL playoffs (10 games, so not a small sample for the beast either).

Incidentally, Bedard had 20 points in 7 WHL games, and yet somehow that wasn't enough for the Regina Pats. How bad was everyone else on the team?

 

[Ugene Magic]

 

[AuroraBorealis]

Went digging...

Didn't realise his prospect thread here goes back to 2019 when he was considered a rival for 1OA in the WHL Bantam Draft along with Bedard.

If you want to be an optimist, then we just got a guy who was projected as a potential top 5 guy for a long time, and who had a rough year expanding his play style but who has the talent and dedication to jump big time.

If you want to be a pessimist, we got a guy who struggles to learn and adapt, which is a death knell for potential NHLers.

Truth is probably in the middle.

Lot of good info and reports in the last few pages of the thread.

I like that he had the 6th best ppg in the WHL playoffs (10 games, so not a small sample for the beast either).

Incidentally, Bedard had 20 points in 7 WHL games, and yet somehow that wasn't enough for the Regina Pats. How bad was everyone else on the team?

I like the player just fine, I just question his purpose here. His timeline and the team's ascension arc don't match, unless Dubas somehow swings a successful re-tool on the fly, and the team is in the playoff hunt again in 4 years. Don't see what trade chips there are to accomplish that.

 

[Peat]

I like the player just fine, I just question his purpose here. His timeline and the team's ascension arc don't match, unless Dubas somehow swings a successful re-tool on the fly, and the team is in the playoff hunt again in 4 years. Don't see what trade chips there are to accomplish that.

I think we just have to accept that the org's decision to try and have its cake and eat it is going to make for many "are you sure" moments for a while.

In any case, if he is good, then he will serve a purpose in some way, be it as player or trade chip.

This team is in a pickle partly because it has spent a ton of picks to try and improve the team in minor ways and not taken many chances to find trade chips in the form of developing prospects. Ironically the final act might be the wrong time to reverse that, but I'm happy to anyway. If we see a difference maker move for a price where using 14OA will change my mind but for now, I am okay with having another trade chip and seeing what may come.

 

[cygnus47]

I like the player just fine, I just question his purpose here. His timeline and the team's ascension arc don't match, unless Dubas somehow swings a successful re-tool on the fly, and the team is in the playoff hunt again in 4 years. Don't see what trade chips there are to accomplish that.

If he has a great start to his D+1 year next season he might be worth more than his draft pick? I dunno man.

 

[Extra Texture]

Tested well at the draft combine according to DK too

Lol, check out the comparable. Good timing on that one.

Let’s see..

-Buds with Shane Endicott
-1st round pick of the Penguins
-Out of the WHL

Brayden Yager D -1 and draft year stats:
63GP 34G 25A
67GP 28G 50A

Colby Armstrong D -1 and draft year stats:
72GP 36G 42A
64GP 27G 41A


Coincidence?

Jesus, I followed the draft on a feed with Colby giving commentary, looks like he finally gave in and got that BioSteel enema to save time

 

[Jaded-Fan]

I like the player just fine, I just question his purpose here. His timeline and the team's ascension arc don't match, unless Dubas somehow swings a successful re-tool on the fly, and the team is in the playoff hunt again in 4 years. Don't see what trade chips there are to accomplish that.

People need to accept that these draft picks have zero to do with whatever remains of the Crosby Malkin era.

Dubas obviously wants to keep the team competitive these last couple of years.

However, Dubas is young and signed long term. He is building for the next era too.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

If he has a great start to his D+1 year next season he might be worth more than his draft pick? I dunno man.

Is he gonna get the games at the NHL level in 2024-25 to boost that value? Questionable at the very least, given the expectation for him to be a long term project.
Even if he does, won't Sullivan just give him 70+% D-zone starts on L3 or L4? Gonna be hard for him to produce offense that way and showcase what he can do to GM's around the league. At that point he's not gonna have very much value in all likelihood.

People need to accept that these draft picks have zero to do with whatever remains of the Crosby Malkin era.

Dubas obviously wants to keep the team competitive these last couple of years.

However, Dubas is young and signed long term. He is building for the next era too.

I totally accept that, but Yager's development arc doesn't match the rebuild arc.

 

[SomeDude]

I just anxiously await the repurposed with duct tape Jagr jerseys.

 

[cygnus47]

Is he gonna get the games at the NHL level in 2024-25 to boost that value? Questionable at the very least, given the expectation for him to be a long term project.
Even if he does, won't Sullivan just give him 70+% D-zone starts on L3 or L4? Gonna be hard for him to produce offense that way and showcase what he can do to GM's around the league. At that point he's not gonna have very much value in all likelihood.

I mean in the WHL for use at the next deadline. If he explodes this year his value by the deadline will have changed. Maybe not, I don't really believe it, just an idea.