Ulysses31
Registered User
1)wright
2)jiricek
3)cooley
4)nemec
5)nazar
6)lambert
7)slafkovsky
8)savoie
2)jiricek
3)cooley
4)nemec
5)nazar
6)lambert
7)slafkovsky
8)savoie
I guess Bob isn’t putting out his final list until a week before the draft, and HP is going to do there’s like a week before that.I need Bob’s final ranking and The Black Book before I post mine. Two of my go-to resources that usually come out in June.
If we going to get Jiricek it's probably SY doesn't trust Hronek been top 4 at d and he will trade him for potential center1. Shane Wright
2. Juraj Slafkovsky
3. Matt Savoie
4. Logan Cooley
5. Simon Nemec
6. Danila Yurov
7. Conor Geekie
8. David Jiricek
That's my top 8, and ideally I want us to get one of those 8 players. I really don't know what to do with the next group of players. I think the next 4 guys I would be most comfortable with us getting would be Mintyukov, Mateychuk, Korchinski, or Kasper. So maybe that tells me who to put next. But I have a hard time ranking them against Kemell, Lekkerimaki, Gauthier, Nazar, Kulich, and Mesar. It's all a pretty even group to me.
No clue what to do with Mirosnichenko and his situation. I don't feel I know enough about the risk involved and how it could affect his development to properly rank him. Without any health concerns I would probably put him somewhere 7-10.
TBH I have more questions than I do answers with this draft.
1. Shane Wright
2. Juraj Slafkovsky
3. Matt Savoie
4. Logan Cooley
5. Simon Nemec
6. Danila Yurov
7. Conor Geekie
8. David Jiricek
That's my top 8, and ideally I want us to get one of those 8 players. I really don't know what to do with the next group of players. I think the next 4 guys I would be most comfortable with us getting would be Mintyukov, Mateychuk, Korchinski, or Kasper. So maybe that tells me who to put next. But I have a hard time ranking them against Kemell, Lekkerimaki, Gauthier, Nazar, Kulich, and Mesar. It's all a pretty even group to me.
No clue what to do with Mirosnichenko and his situation. I don't feel I know enough about the risk involved and how it could affect his development to properly rank him. Without any health concerns I would probably put him somewhere 7-10.
TBH I have more questions than I do answers with this draft.
I have a list I can put out, but I am going to make edits/adjustments to it after The Black Book and Bob's final list comes out.
I have a list I can put out, but I am going to make edits/adjustments to it after The Black Book and Bob's final list comes out.
I think this looks pretty good. If you flip the two defensemen in the top 9 and then move Geekie up to six you are about where I would land. I am not sold on Mateychuk as an NHL defensemen. Nazar v. Gauthier is a coin flip for me.You could flip anyone I have ranked 9-19 around and I wouldn't fight you too much.
(this list may look decently different in a month)
Mateychuk is just a personal favorite for me. I think he has a ton of room for growth and I like everything about how he plays. But I totally get where you are coming from.I think this looks pretty good. If you flip the two defensemen in the top 9 and then move Geekie up to six you are about where I would land. I am not sold on Mateychuk as an NHL defensemen. Nazar v. Gauthier is a coin flip for me.
Have you seen Nemec play in these world championships? Holy smokes that kid is good for an 18 year old.I think this looks pretty good. If you flip the two defensemen in the top 9 and then move Geekie up to six you are about where I would land. I am not sold on Mateychuk as an NHL defensemen. Nazar v. Gauthier is a coin flip for me.
I have not, but still see Jiricek as a bit more projectible as an NHL player. I love a lot of what Nemec does, just wish he was a bit more explosive at his size. He does have a very good head for the game though. I will give you that. Maybe there is more offense in there as well.Have you seen Nemec play in these world championships? Holy smokes that kid is good for an 18 year old.
I've gotta respect the Ostlund at 2 rankings. It's crazy and I love it. I also agree with still believing in Lambert. Maybe not that high on my list as I like guys like Cooley more than you do, but I have him at 7 now after I redid my rankings (I do that every now and then when I feel I get too stuck in a mental set on how I'm ranking guys). Also loving Adam Sykora in the teens. I have him 25th now.Decided to go with a top 34 as I feel like these players have separated themselves from the rest. Personally, I found this draft very hard to rank as there are many good players with excellent traits but multiple uncertainties that they need to work on. You're gonna tell me that's true for every draft, yes, sure, but usually I have a much better idea on the tiers I want to establish but this year I feel like I have a tier at 1-2, then 3-7 and then an enormous 8-34. Feel free to discuss, I like nothing more than having people give me different opinions and perspectives on prospects and make me re-evaluate what I saw!
My top 34 prospects
1. Shane Wright
2. Noah Ostlund
3. Brad Lambert
4. Juraj Slafkovsky
5. Matthew Savoie
6. Frank Nazar
7. Liam Ohgren
8. Conor Geekie
9. Logan Cooley
10. Arseni Koromyslov
11. David Jiricek
12. Jiri Kulich
13. Filip Mesar
14. Simon Nemec
15. Kevin Korchinski
16. Lian Bichsel
17. Adam Sykora
18. Danila Yurov
19. Jonathan Lekkerimaki
20. Marco Kasper
21. Joakim Kemell
22. Ivan Miroshnichenko
23. Nathan Gaucher
24. Dmitri Buchelnikov
25. Viktor Neuchev
26. Isaac Howard
27. Pavel Mintyukov
28. Julian Lutz
29. Gleb Trikozov
30. Ty Nelson
31. Jagger Firkus
32. Owen Pickering
33. Cutter Gauthier
34. Jordan Dumais
Hot takes
Ostlund at 2
Refer to this thread if you want clips posted by @simonedvinsson and my small summary below.
Koromyslov as best D and Russian
As I watched Koromyslov's team, he's the one who caught my eye multiple times and as he started to really grow on me, I noticed that I had a post from 2020 in his thread on HF saying he was really good, which I had kind of forgot about. So that shows that this is not just a hunch but really a player's profile that has caught my eye more than once. So basically, I had seen him prior to his draft year and I remember the talk being that his defense was the thing that needed to improve. Well... let's just say that during his team's MHL playoffs run (they won), he was, to my eye, by far the most effective shutdown defenseman on the team. He was shutting down other highly skilled Russian prospects while the other defense pairs seemed to struggle to keep the high-danger chances count low. His offense, which was his strong suit before this season, has kind of stagnated but the potential and the flash is there and also is a result of how the MHL play on offense, they mostly play on the rush and pass it to their other linemates rather than back to the defense (more true for some teams than others).
As for his game, he's just an excellent defender with the skating and stick checking to keep up with the most dangerous opposing forwards. He's also calm with the puck and usually managed pressure really well and will invite forecheckers on him to open the neutral zone and then throw good breakout passes to the forwards. He's not afraid of jumping into the offense if he sees an opportunity but has often been looked off from his forwards as a lot of them seem to keep focusing on driving forward and attack relentlessly. Koromyslov is also excellent along the boards and in front of his net, he's quite lanky but strong for his league which allows him to push people around, get into scrums after the whistles, and even delivering big hits sometimes. I just really like his profile and he's one of the few defenseman in the draft who plays an "NHL" mature style game. Not afraid on keeping it simple and throwing it off the glass if a turnover seem to be to only outcome as he gets pressured.
He played 6 games in the KHL as an 18 years old and 1 game last year as a 17 years old. I wish I would have watched a game of his in the KHL to get a better idea of where he's at and how he handles the pace, but sadly I haven't been able to.
Nemec kinda low
I like his profile and his fundamentals quite a lot but he makes too many mistakes everytime I watch for me to justify putting him higher. 14 is still really good and as I've said, this draft is really hard for me to rank so just because a player is lower than the "consensus" doesn't mean I dislike them or think they will fail, I'm just more cautious about their NHL upside.
Nazar above Cooley
Almost just as skilled but doesn't show it as often. Has a better IQ and understanding of the game, in my opinion. Generally, I am not super high on the current USDP players, but I really like Nazar.
Sleepers
Arseni Koromyslov (Supposed to go in the 3rd round, but I think he should be a 1st rounder)
Jagger Firkus (Insane power on wrist shot, very skilled, scored a michigan goal, needs to work on his game but high upside)
Spencer Sova (I've liked what I've seen from him, interesting skill set but needs to be better on defense)
Super sleepers (generally unranked)
Patrik Juhola (Big goalscoring center. I like what I've seen. Quite smart.)
Gaël Christe (played alongside Bichsel at the Hlinka and I thought he showed some great skating and skill)
Elias Cohen (Overager that I felt should have been drafted last year. Liked his play in his D-1. Didn't watch him this year but seem to have done well so I'll just leave him here)
Alexander Tochilkin (Long shot as he's small and doesn't have great stats, but has played exclusively a defensive role on his team and is going to the VHL next year and I think there's some hidden potential. Had an amazing open hit in one game I've watched. Smart, responsible and very good defensively)
Luca Auer (Plays well in front of the net. Smart but needs to work on his pace/skating)
Dennis Good Bogg (Very good on defense, I like him, he's smart and keeps it simple, but the upside is low. One of the best name ever should make him an NHL player )
My confidence in my ranking will be at an all time low this year
They might not try to pick where players end up, but they talk to a lot of scouts and are obviously influenced to some degree,Blackbook doesn't attempt to pick where players will actually be drafted, but instead projects their long term view of the prospects. They end up with some "hot takes" at times because of that - they don't look so crazy a year or two later many times. I personally think they are the best of the bunch on projectability.
My list is based on some limited viewings as well as my prospect model. I also consider league play to be significantly more important than international. International results are fun, but should always be taken with a grain of salt.
This year I've revamped my prospect model. The updated model is a logistic regression model which outputs the probability a player will make it to the NHL. Each prospect is given a probability of reaching "Elite", "1st Line", "2nd Line", "3rd Line", & "4th Line" roles by age 27 for F and "Elite", "1st Pair", "2nd Pair", & "3rd Pair" for D. These probabilities are then used to produce an expected value stat, which in this case is an expected cap hit. I also used some other relevant stats to help determine their placement, but a large portion of the list was created using the model.
For the draft itself I really like it up to about the mid 40s and then there is a steep drop off. I'm not in love with a ton of prospects outside of the top tiers. As well, what matters is the tiers and not the rankings themselves. I think outside of the Russians you can make an argument for almost any of them within tiers. That being said, we've seen a number of Russian prospects get signed recently so I'm thinking there's a chance the high profile ones still go quite high.
Tier Rank Player Position League Draft Year 1 1Shane Wright C OHL DY 2 2Simon Nemec D Slovak DY 3 3Logan Cooley C USHL DY 4 4David Jiricek D Czech DY 4 5Matthew Savoie C WHL DY 4 6Juraj Slafkovsky W Liiga DY 4 7Frank Nazar C USHL DY 4 8Gleb Trikozov F MHL DY 4 9Brad Lambert C Liiga DY 4 10Danila Yurov F MHL DY 5 11Denton Mateychuk D WHL DY 5 12Kevin Korchinski D WHL DY 5 13Joakim Kemell W Liiga DY 5 14Jordan Dumais F QMJHL DY 5 15Liam Ohgren F SuperElit DY 5 16Jiri Kulich C Czech DY 5 17Seamus Casey D USHL DY 5 18Filip Mesar C Slovak DY 5 19Isaac Howard F USHL DY 5 20Pavel Mintyukov D OHL DY 5 21Conor Geekie C WHL DY 6 22Marco Kasper F SHL DY 6 23Ty Nelson D OHL DY 6 24Jagger Firkus W WHL DY 6 25Cutter Gauthier F USHL DY 6 26Jonathan Lekkerimaki F SHL DY 6 27Rutger McGroarty F USHL DY 6 28Alexander Perevalov F MHL DY 6 29Vladimir Grudinin D MHL DY 6 30Lane Hutson D USHL DY 6 31Noah Ostlund F SuperElit DY 7 32Luca DelBelBelluz C OHL DY 7 33Jani Nyman W Liiga DY 7 34David Goyette C OHL DY 7 35Jimmy Snuggerud F USHL DY 7 36Ivan Miroshnichenko F VHL DY 7 37Christian Kyrou D OHL DY 7 38Lian Bichsel D SuperElit DY 7 39Adam Syokra W Slovak DY 7 40Julian Lutz F DEL DY 7 41Mattias Havelid D SuperElit DY 7 42Matyas Sapovaliv F OHL DY 7 43Hugo Havelid G SuperElit DY 7 44Ryan Chesley D USHL DY 8 45Nicholas Moldenhauer F USHL DY 8 46Jérémy Langlois D QMJHL DY 8 47Adam Ingram F USHL DY 8 48Jack Hughes F NCAA DY 8 49Ludwig Persson F SuperElit DY 8 50Elias Salomonsson D SuperElit DY 8 51Michael Buchinger D OHL DY 8 52Viktor Neuchev F MHL DY 8 53Artyom Duda D MHL DY 8 54Tristan Luneau D QMJHL DY 8 55Servac Petrovsky F OHL DY 8 56Alexander Suzdalev F SuperElit DY 8 57Nick Malik G Liiga DY+2 8 58Nathan Gaucher F QMJHL DY 8 59Owen Pickering D WHL DY 9 60Aleksanteri Kaskimaki C Liiga DY 9 61Niks Fenenko D QMJHL DY 9 62Otto Salin D Liiga DY 9 63Simon Forsmark D SuperElit DY 9 64Jake Furlong D QMJHL DY 9 65Maveric Lamoureux D QMJHL DY 9 66Filip Bystedt F SuperElit DY 9 67Noah Warren D QMJHL DY 9 68Markus Vidicek F QMJHL DY 9 69Mats Lindgren D WHL DY 9 70Hudson Thornton D WHL DY 9 71Ilya Ivantsov F VHL DY+1 9 72Calle Odelius D SuperElit DY 9 73Tomas Hamara D Liiga DY 9 74Tucker Robertson F OHL DY+1 10 75Elmeri Laakso D Liiga DY 10 76Dylan James F USHL DY 10 77Alex Sotek F Liiga DY 10 78Ilya Kvochko F MHL DY 10 79Kirill Kudryavtsev D OHL DY 10 80Raul Yakupov F MHL DY 10 81Logan Morrison F OHL DY+2 10 82Rodwin Dionicio D OHL DY 10 83Reid Schaefer W WHL DY 10 84Danny Zhilkin F OHL DY 10 85David Spacek D QMJHL DY+1 10 86Ben King F WHL DY+2 10 87Jordan Gustafson C WHL DY 10 88Danil Aimurzin C VHL DY+2 10 89Joel Jonsson W SuperElit DY
HM: Luke Mittelstadt, D, DY+1; Zakhar Vinogradov, G, DY+1; Michal Gut, C, DY+2, Jeremy Wilmer, W, DY+1
Some things to note on my list:
1. Jordan Dumais. He is one of the most under rated players in the draft. He has one of the highest likelihoods of becoming a top 6 player and is constantly ranked in the 70s. I know he's small and his skating isn't elite, but he is someone I'd be willing to swing for the fences on.
2. The WHL dmen. Korchinski & Mateychuk are both two of the premier offensive dmen in this draft; I wouldn't be shocked if either of the two became the best defenceman from this class. If Mateychuk was a little bit bigger I think he'd be in my top 10.
3. The Russians. What Trikozov did as an U18 in the MHL was incredible. He had one of the best U18 seasons of all time while playing far less minutes than some of those ahead of him. He is my favorite prospect in the draft and someone I'd love to snag should he fall in the draft; if not for the current political issues he would be #5 on my board. Yurov was no slouch either and while he didn't produce in the KHL his MHL numbers were outstanding. I'd have liked to have seen him at the WJC, but his MHL numbers are enough for him to stay in my top 10. Without the political issues he'd be my 8th on my board
4. The Goalies. This draft is lacking any sort of can't miss goalie prospect, but there are still 2 interesting ones. Hugo Havelid may have had the best U18 tourney possible for his draft stock and it really solidified his position in my mind as the best goalie in the draft. While he is small his numbers and play speak for themselves. Nick Malik is my #2 ranked goalie. He was outstanding this year in the Liiga as a DY+2 and had a season worthy of being a top 90 pick.
Tier | Rank | Player |
1 | 1 | Shane Wright |
2 | 2 | Simon Nemec |
2 | 3 | Logan Cooley |
2 | 4 | Juraj Slafkovsky |
3 | 5 | David Jiricek |
3 | 6 | Matthew Savoie |
3 | 7 | Frank Nazar |
3 | 8 | Gleb Trikozov |
3 | 9 | Danila Yurov |
4 | 10 | Brad Lambert |
4 | 11 | Denton Mateychuk |
4 | 12 | Kevin Korchinski |
4 | 13 | Joakim Kemell |
4 | 14 | Liam Ohgren |
4 | 15 | Pavel Mintyukov |
4 | 16 | Jordan Dumais |
4 | 17 | Jiri Kulich |
4 | 18 | Seamus Casey |
4 | 19 | Filip Mesar |
4 | 20 | Marco Kasper |
4 | 21 | Jonathan Lekkerimaki |
5 | 22 | Isaac Howard |
5 | 23 | Conor Geekie |
5 | 24 | Ty Nelson |
5 | 25 | Jagger Firkus |
5 | 26 | Cutter Gauthier |
5 | 27 | Rutger McGroarty |
5 | 28 | Alexander Perevalov |
5 | 29 | Vladimir Grudinin |
5 | 30 | Lane Hutson |
5 | 31 | Noah Ostlund |
5 | 32 | Ivan Miroshnichenko |
6 | 33 | Nathan Gaucher |
6 | 34 | Adam Syokra |
6 | 35 | Luca DelBelBelluz |
6 | 36 | Jani Nyman |
6 | 37 | David Goyette |
6 | 38 | Jimmy Snuggerud |
6 | 39 | Christian Kyrou |
6 | 40 | Lian Bichsel |
6 | 41 | Julian Lutz |
6 | 42 | Mattias Havelid |
6 | 43 | Sam Rinzel |
6 | 44 | Ryan Chesley |
7 | 45 | Hugo Havelid |
7 | 46 | Matyas Sapovaliv |
7 | 47 | Jérémy Langlois |
7 | 48 | Adam Ingram |
7 | 49 | Ludwig Persson |
7 | 50 | Elias Salomonsson |
7 | 51 | Michael Buchinger |
7 | 52 | Viktor Neuchev |
7 | 53 | Artyom Duda |
7 | 54 | Tristan Luneau |
7 | 55 | Rieger Lorenz |
7 | 56 | Servac Petrovsky |
7 | 57 | Alexander Suzdalev |
7 | 58 | Nick Malik |
7 | 59 | Owen Pickering |
7 | 60 | Tyson Jugnauth |
7 | 61 | Dmitri Buchelnikov |
7 | 62 | Niks Fenenko |
7 | 63 | Hudson Thornton |
8 | 64 | Nicholas Moldenhauer |
8 | 65 | Jack Hughes |
8 | 66 | Aleksanteri Kaskimaki |
8 | 67 | Otto Salin |
8 | 68 | Simon Forsmark |
8 | 69 | Jake Furlong |
8 | 70 | Filip Bystedt |
8 | 71 | Noah Warren |
8 | 72 | Markus Vidicek |
8 | 73 | Mats Lindgren |
8 | 74 | Ilya Ivantsov |
8 | 75 | Calle Odelius |
8 | 76 | Tomas Hamara |
8 | 77 | Tucker Robertson |
8 | 78 | Tyson Dyck |
8 | 79 | Logan Morrison |
8 | 80 | Topias Leinonen |
8 | 81 | Ty Young |
8 | 82 | Maxim Mayorov |
8 | 83 | Devin Kaplan |
9 | 84 | Maveric Lamoureux |
9 | 85 | Elmeri Laakso |
9 | 86 | Dylan James |
9 | 87 | Alex Sotek |
9 | 88 | Ilya Kvochko |
9 | 89 | Kirill Kudryavtsev |
9 | 90 | Raul Yakupov |
9 | 91 | Rodwin Dionicio |
9 | 92 | Reid Schaefer |
9 | 93 | Danny Zhilkin |
9 | 94 | David Spacek |
9 | 95 | Ben King |
9 | 96 | Jordan Gustafson |
9 | 97 | Joel Jonsson |
9 | 98 | Josh Nadeau |
9 | 99 | Miguël Tourigny |
9 | 100 | Grigori Kuzmin |