OgeeOgelthorpe
Riccis per 60 record holder
- Feb 29, 2020
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2022 Personal draft boards!!!
- Thread starter OgeeOgelthorpe
- Start date
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Frk It
Mo Seider Less Problems
- Jul 27, 2010
- 36,875
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I need Bob’s final ranking and The Black Book before I post mine. Two of my go-to resources that usually come out in June.
OgeeOgelthorpe
Riccis per 60 record holder
- Feb 29, 2020
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How close is the black book to where players have actually been picked? I've read it in the past and I just didn't agree with some of the rankings and reviews of some higher rated/drafted players.
And you can post yours now but post an updated version later.
simonedvinsson
Registered User
- May 26, 2020
- 762
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Take this with a boulder of salt. While I've seen most of the guys on this list multiple times, a handful of these takes are based a little too heavily on Twitter highlights and opinions I've read or heard from various sources around the internet. Players lumped in tiers are basically on the same level for me. You could push me in any direction on those guys. Also note that this is a personal ranking and not a mock draft.
HM: RD Seamus Casey, RW Vasili Dronyk, RD Michael Fisher, RW Maddox Fleming, LD Simon Forsmark, LW Jordan Gustafson, RW Linus Hemström, LW Jack Hughes, LC Jake Karabela, LC Aleksanteri Kaskimäki, RD Christian Kyrou, LD Kasper Larsen, LW Brandon Lisowsky, RW Cruz Lucius, RD Michael Mastrodomenico, LW Adam Měchura, RC Logan Morrison, RD Ty Nelson, LW Alexander Perevalov, LC Ludwig Persson, RC Matthew Poitras, LC Markus Vidicek
- LW Juraj Slafkovský
- LC Logan Cooley
- LC Marco Kasper
--- - RC Shane Wright
- LC Cutter Gauthier
- LD Pavel Mintyukov
- RD Šimon Nemec
- LD Lian Bichsel
- LC Noah Östlund
- RW Jonathan Lekkerimäki
--- - RC Matthew Savoie
- RW Joakim Kemell
- RD David Jiříček
- LC Jiří Kulich
- LC Danila Yurov
- RC Frank Nazar Ⅲ
- RW Jimmy Snuggerud
- RC Conor Geekie
- LW Liam Öhgren
- LD Kevin Korchinski
-- - LD Owen Pickering
- RC Filip Mešár
- RW Adam Sykora
- RD Ryan Chesley
- LC Danny Zhilkin
- LD Calle Odelius
- RC Nathan Gaucher
- RC Gleb Trikozov
- LW Matyáš Šapovaliv
- RD Elias Salomonsson
- LC Rutger McGroarty
-- - RW Nikita Grebyonkin
- LC Luca Del Bel Belluz
- LW Ivan Miroshnichenko
- LW Isaac "Ike" Howard
- LD Denton Mateychuk
- RC Brad Lambert
- RW Devin Kaplan
- RC Vinzenz Rohrer
- LW Kirill Dolzhenkov
- LW Viktor Neuchev
- GT Topias Leinonen
- LD Lane Hutson
- RW Jagger Firkus
-- - LW Jani Nyman
- LC Paul Ludwinski
- LW Julian Lutz
- RD Sam Rinzel
- LC Rieger Lorenz
- LC Topi Rönni
- LC David Goyette
- RC Owen Beck
- LD Artyom Duda
- LD Arseni Koromyslov
- RD Tristan Luneau
- LD Vladimir Grudinin
- LD Tomas Hamara
- LW Samuel Savoie
-- - LC Cedrick Guindon
- RD Maveric Lamoureux
- LD Mats Lindgren
- LD Alexander Pelevin
- RC Liam Arnsby
- LC Ilya Kvochko
HM: RD Seamus Casey, RW Vasili Dronyk, RD Michael Fisher, RW Maddox Fleming, LD Simon Forsmark, LW Jordan Gustafson, RW Linus Hemström, LW Jack Hughes, LC Jake Karabela, LC Aleksanteri Kaskimäki, RD Christian Kyrou, LD Kasper Larsen, LW Brandon Lisowsky, RW Cruz Lucius, RD Michael Mastrodomenico, LW Adam Měchura, RC Logan Morrison, RD Ty Nelson, LW Alexander Perevalov, LC Ludwig Persson, RC Matthew Poitras, LC Markus Vidicek
*updated: 2022.05.05 - Matthew Savoie ↑, Joakim Kemell ↑, Gleb Trikozov ↓
***updated: 2022.05.22 - Cutter Gauthier ↑, Ivan Miroshnichenko ↑, Juraj Slafkovsky ↑
****updated: 2022.06.03 - Owen Beck ↑, Denton Mateychuk ↑, Sam Rinzel ↓
*****updated: 2022.07.06 - Lane Hutson ↑, Luca Del Bel Belluz ↑, Aleksanteri Kaskimäki ↓
***updated: 2022.05.22 - Cutter Gauthier ↑, Ivan Miroshnichenko ↑, Juraj Slafkovsky ↑
****updated: 2022.06.03 - Owen Beck ↑, Denton Mateychuk ↑, Sam Rinzel ↓
*****updated: 2022.07.06 - Lane Hutson ↑, Luca Del Bel Belluz ↑, Aleksanteri Kaskimäki ↓
Last edited:
NickH8
Registered User
- Jul 3, 2015
- 3,752
- 3,962
Ah, an excuse to post mine.
I'm pretty proud of how I've improved my ability to evaluate this year I feel like. Still just a fan obviously, but I made a conscious effort to actually watch games instead of just highlights. Here's my top 32.
1. Shane Wright
2. Logan Cooley
3. Matthew Savoie
4. Juraj Slafkovsky
5. David Jiricek
6. Joakim Kemell
7. Frank Nazar
8. Danila Yurov
9. Simon Nemec
10. Marco Kasper
11. Conor Geekie
12. Ivan Miroshnichenko
13. Rutger McGroarty
14. Jiri Kulich
15. Cutter Gauthier
16. Filip Mesar
17. David Goyette
18. Gleb Trikozov
19. Jonathan Lekkerimaki
20. Pavel Mintyukov
21. Calle Odelius
22. Liam Ohgren
23. Isaac Howard
24. Noah Ostlund
25. Denton Mateychuk
26. Brad Lambert
27. Owen Pickering
28. Seamus Casey
29. Ty Nelson
30. Alexander Perevalov
31. Kevin Korchinski
32. Jimmy Snuggerud
HM: Lane Hutson, Danny Zhilkin, Lian Bichsel, Luca Del Bel Belluz
I'm pretty proud of how I've improved my ability to evaluate this year I feel like. Still just a fan obviously, but I made a conscious effort to actually watch games instead of just highlights. Here's my top 32.
1. Shane Wright
2. Logan Cooley
3. Matthew Savoie
4. Juraj Slafkovsky
5. David Jiricek
6. Joakim Kemell
7. Frank Nazar
8. Danila Yurov
9. Simon Nemec
10. Marco Kasper
11. Conor Geekie
12. Ivan Miroshnichenko
13. Rutger McGroarty
14. Jiri Kulich
15. Cutter Gauthier
16. Filip Mesar
17. David Goyette
18. Gleb Trikozov
19. Jonathan Lekkerimaki
20. Pavel Mintyukov
21. Calle Odelius
22. Liam Ohgren
23. Isaac Howard
24. Noah Ostlund
25. Denton Mateychuk
26. Brad Lambert
27. Owen Pickering
28. Seamus Casey
29. Ty Nelson
30. Alexander Perevalov
31. Kevin Korchinski
32. Jimmy Snuggerud
HM: Lane Hutson, Danny Zhilkin, Lian Bichsel, Luca Del Bel Belluz
Frk It
Mo Seider Less Problems
- Jul 27, 2010
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NickH8
Registered User
- Jul 3, 2015
- 3,752
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I chose to not let it effect my rankings, but it would definitely be a factor on draft day. It's just so hard to evaluate how it's gonna affect him.
Lil Sebastian Cossa
Opinions are share are my own personal opinions.
- Jul 6, 2012
- 11,436
- 7,448
Using Nick's as a base, I'm just going to bold the names I think hit and Italicize the names I think flop. My rankings are always only based on name recognition and feeling of "star". Never scientific
1. Shane Wright
2. Logan Cooley
3. Matthew Savoie
4. Juraj Slafkovsky
5. David Jiricek
6. Joakim Kemell
7. Frank Nazar
8. Danila Yurov
9. Simon Nemec
10. Marco Kasper
11. Conor Geekie
12. Ivan Miroshnichenko
13. Rutger McGroarty
14. Jiri Kulich
15. Cutter Gauthier
16. Filip Mesar
17. David Goyette
18. Gleb Trikozov
19. Jonathan Lekkerimaki
20. Pavel Mintyukov
21. Calle Odelius
22. Liam Ohgren
23. Isaac Howard
24. Noah Ostlund
25. Denton Mateychuk
26. Brad Lambert
27. Owen Pickering
28. Seamus Casey
29. Ty Nelson
30. Alexander Perevalov
31. Kevin Korchinski
32. Jimmy Snuggerud
E: When I say name recognition, I mean that I can imagine a story in ESPN written about them. Like, he's got to be a f***ing star for them to write about Rutger McGroarty.
1. Shane Wright
2. Logan Cooley
3. Matthew Savoie
4. Juraj Slafkovsky
5. David Jiricek
6. Joakim Kemell
7. Frank Nazar
8. Danila Yurov
9. Simon Nemec
10. Marco Kasper
11. Conor Geekie
12. Ivan Miroshnichenko
13. Rutger McGroarty
14. Jiri Kulich
15. Cutter Gauthier
16. Filip Mesar
17. David Goyette
18. Gleb Trikozov
19. Jonathan Lekkerimaki
20. Pavel Mintyukov
21. Calle Odelius
22. Liam Ohgren
23. Isaac Howard
24. Noah Ostlund
25. Denton Mateychuk
26. Brad Lambert
27. Owen Pickering
28. Seamus Casey
29. Ty Nelson
30. Alexander Perevalov
31. Kevin Korchinski
32. Jimmy Snuggerud
E: When I say name recognition, I mean that I can imagine a story in ESPN written about them. Like, he's got to be a f***ing star for them to write about Rutger McGroarty.
OgeeOgelthorpe
Riccis per 60 record holder
- Feb 29, 2020
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They're a major gamble, but the guy has skill on par with Andrei Svechnikov. His D-1 and his Hlinka were really impressive.
I know a lot of people were saying, "But he's not scoring right now!" when looking at his season so far.
Well...that's because he was playing with his cancer not being diagnosed at that time. I'd bet a healthy Miroshnichenko would be giving Wright a run for his money as #1 overall. I chose to rank him as if it's not a factor.
Killerjas
Registered User
OgeeOgelthorpe
Riccis per 60 record holder
- Feb 29, 2020
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I haven't seen much of him yet. I'd like to do some more diving into his clips and scouting reports before I rank him. It seems like his rankings go from #14 overall to #66. That's a crazy variance.
Gleb Trikozov at eliteprospects.com
Killerjas
Registered User
He is in my 20 for sure, but since he is Russian, wouldn't be surprised if he drops (alot)
wingerdinger
Registered User
- Oct 21, 2018
- 1,300
- 1,288
1. Shane Wright
2. Simon Nemec
3. David Jiricek
4. Logan Cooley
5. Juraj Slafkovsky
6. Matthew Savoie
7. Danila Yurov
8. Jonatan Lekkermaki
9. Frank Nazar III
10. Marco Kasper
11. Ivan Mirosnichenko
12. Filip Mesar
13. Cutter Gauthier
14. Connor Geekie
15. Joakim Kemell
16. Jiri Kulich
17. Rutger McGroaty
18. Pavel Mintyukov
19. Denton Mateychuk
20. Lian Bischel
21. David Goyette
22. Noah Ostlund
23. Ryan Chesley
24. Gleb Trikozov
25. Lane Hutson
26. Seamus Casey
27. Nathan Gauthier
28. Brad Lambert
29. Liam Ohgren
30. Isaac Howard
31. Ty Nelson
32. Owen Pickering
*Subject to change.
Also think I'm still too low on Ostlund he skyrocketed up my board via u18's.
2. Simon Nemec
3. David Jiricek
4. Logan Cooley
5. Juraj Slafkovsky
6. Matthew Savoie
7. Danila Yurov
8. Jonatan Lekkermaki
9. Frank Nazar III
10. Marco Kasper
11. Ivan Mirosnichenko
12. Filip Mesar
13. Cutter Gauthier
14. Connor Geekie
15. Joakim Kemell
16. Jiri Kulich
17. Rutger McGroaty
18. Pavel Mintyukov
19. Denton Mateychuk
20. Lian Bischel
21. David Goyette
22. Noah Ostlund
23. Ryan Chesley
24. Gleb Trikozov
25. Lane Hutson
26. Seamus Casey
27. Nathan Gauthier
28. Brad Lambert
29. Liam Ohgren
30. Isaac Howard
31. Ty Nelson
32. Owen Pickering
*Subject to change.
Also think I'm still too low on Ostlund he skyrocketed up my board via u18's.
DatsyukToZetterberg
Alligator!
My list is based on some limited viewings as well as my prospect model. I also consider league play to be significantly more important than international. International results are fun, but should always be taken with a grain of salt.
This year I've revamped my prospect model. The updated model is a logistic regression model which outputs the probability a player will make it to the NHL. Each prospect is given a probability of reaching "Elite", "1st Line", "2nd Line", "3rd Line", & "4th Line" roles by age 27 for F and "Elite", "1st Pair", "2nd Pair", & "3rd Pair" for D. These probabilities are then used to produce an expected value stat, which in this case is an expected cap hit. I also used some other relevant stats to help determine their placement, but a large portion of the list was created using the model.
For the draft itself I really like it up to about the mid 40s and then there is a steep drop off. I'm not in love with a ton of prospects outside of the top tiers. As well, what matters is the tiers and not the rankings themselves. I think outside of the Russians you can make an argument for almost any of them within tiers. That being said, we've seen a number of Russian prospects get signed recently so I'm thinking there's a chance the high profile ones still go quite high.
HM: Luke Mittelstadt, D, DY+1; Zakhar Vinogradov, G, DY+1; Michal Gut, C, DY+2, Jeremy Wilmer, W, DY+1
Some things to note on my list:
1. Jordan Dumais. He is one of the most under rated players in the draft. He has one of the highest likelihoods of becoming a top 6 player and is constantly ranked in the 70s. I know he's small and his skating isn't elite, but he is someone I'd be willing to swing for the fences on.
2. The WHL dmen. Korchinski & Mateychuk are both two of the premier offensive dmen in this draft; I wouldn't be shocked if either of the two became the best defenceman from this class. If Mateychuk was a little bit bigger I think he'd be in my top 10.
3. The Russians. What Trikozov did as an U18 in the MHL was incredible. He had one of the best U18 seasons of all time while playing far less minutes than some of those ahead of him. He is my favorite prospect in the draft and someone I'd love to snag should he fall in the draft; if not for the current political issues he would be #5 on my board. Yurov was no slouch either and while he didn't produce in the KHL his MHL numbers were outstanding. I'd have liked to have seen him at the WJC, but his MHL numbers are enough for him to stay in my top 10. Without the political issues he'd be my 8th on my board
4. The Goalies. This draft is lacking any sort of can't miss goalie prospect, but there are still 2 interesting ones. Hugo Havelid may have had the best U18 tourney possible for his draft stock and it really solidified his position in my mind as the best goalie in the draft. While he is small his numbers and play speak for themselves. Nick Malik is my #2 ranked goalie. He was outstanding this year in the Liiga as a DY+2 and had a season worthy of being a top 90 pick.
This year I've revamped my prospect model. The updated model is a logistic regression model which outputs the probability a player will make it to the NHL. Each prospect is given a probability of reaching "Elite", "1st Line", "2nd Line", "3rd Line", & "4th Line" roles by age 27 for F and "Elite", "1st Pair", "2nd Pair", & "3rd Pair" for D. These probabilities are then used to produce an expected value stat, which in this case is an expected cap hit. I also used some other relevant stats to help determine their placement, but a large portion of the list was created using the model.
For the draft itself I really like it up to about the mid 40s and then there is a steep drop off. I'm not in love with a ton of prospects outside of the top tiers. As well, what matters is the tiers and not the rankings themselves. I think outside of the Russians you can make an argument for almost any of them within tiers. That being said, we've seen a number of Russian prospects get signed recently so I'm thinking there's a chance the high profile ones still go quite high.
| Tier | Rank | Player | Position | League | Draft Year |
1 | 1 | Shane Wright | C | OHL | DY |
2 | 2 | Simon Nemec | D | Slovak | DY |
3 | 3 | Logan Cooley | C | USHL | DY |
4 | 4 | David Jiricek | D | Czech | DY |
4 | 5 | Matthew Savoie | C | WHL | DY |
4 | 6 | Juraj Slafkovsky | W | Liiga | DY |
4 | 7 | Frank Nazar | C | USHL | DY |
4 | 8 | Gleb Trikozov | F | MHL | DY |
4 | 9 | Brad Lambert | C | Liiga | DY |
4 | 10 | Danila Yurov | F | MHL | DY |
5 | 11 | Denton Mateychuk | D | WHL | DY |
5 | 12 | Kevin Korchinski | D | WHL | DY |
5 | 13 | Joakim Kemell | W | Liiga | DY |
5 | 14 | Jordan Dumais | F | QMJHL | DY |
5 | 15 | Liam Ohgren | F | SuperElit | DY |
5 | 16 | Jiri Kulich | C | Czech | DY |
5 | 17 | Seamus Casey | D | USHL | DY |
5 | 18 | Filip Mesar | C | Slovak | DY |
5 | 19 | Isaac Howard | F | USHL | DY |
5 | 20 | Pavel Mintyukov | D | OHL | DY |
5 | 21 | Conor Geekie | C | WHL | DY |
6 | 22 | Marco Kasper | F | SHL | DY |
6 | 23 | Ty Nelson | D | OHL | DY |
6 | 24 | Jagger Firkus | W | WHL | DY |
6 | 25 | Cutter Gauthier | F | USHL | DY |
6 | 26 | Jonathan Lekkerimaki | F | SHL | DY |
6 | 27 | Rutger McGroarty | F | USHL | DY |
6 | 28 | Alexander Perevalov | F | MHL | DY |
6 | 29 | Vladimir Grudinin | D | MHL | DY |
6 | 30 | Lane Hutson | D | USHL | DY |
6 | 31 | Noah Ostlund | F | SuperElit | DY |
7 | 32 | Luca DelBelBelluz | C | OHL | DY |
7 | 33 | Jani Nyman | W | Liiga | DY |
7 | 34 | David Goyette | C | OHL | DY |
7 | 35 | Jimmy Snuggerud | F | USHL | DY |
7 | 36 | Ivan Miroshnichenko | F | VHL | DY |
7 | 37 | Christian Kyrou | D | OHL | DY |
7 | 38 | Lian Bichsel | D | SuperElit | DY |
7 | 39 | Adam Syokra | W | Slovak | DY |
7 | 40 | Julian Lutz | F | DEL | DY |
7 | 41 | Mattias Havelid | D | SuperElit | DY |
7 | 42 | Matyas Sapovaliv | F | OHL | DY |
7 | 43 | Hugo Havelid | G | SuperElit | DY |
7 | 44 | Ryan Chesley | D | USHL | DY |
8 | 45 | Nicholas Moldenhauer | F | USHL | DY |
8 | 46 | Jérémy Langlois | D | QMJHL | DY |
8 | 47 | Adam Ingram | F | USHL | DY |
8 | 48 | Jack Hughes | F | NCAA | DY |
8 | 49 | Ludwig Persson | F | SuperElit | DY |
8 | 50 | Elias Salomonsson | D | SuperElit | DY |
8 | 51 | Michael Buchinger | D | OHL | DY |
8 | 52 | Viktor Neuchev | F | MHL | DY |
8 | 53 | Artyom Duda | D | MHL | DY |
8 | 54 | Tristan Luneau | D | QMJHL | DY |
8 | 55 | Servac Petrovsky | F | OHL | DY |
8 | 56 | Alexander Suzdalev | F | SuperElit | DY |
8 | 57 | Nick Malik | G | Liiga | DY+2 |
8 | 58 | Nathan Gaucher | F | QMJHL | DY |
8 | 59 | Owen Pickering | D | WHL | DY |
9 | 60 | Aleksanteri Kaskimaki | C | Liiga | DY |
9 | 61 | Niks Fenenko | D | QMJHL | DY |
9 | 62 | Otto Salin | D | Liiga | DY |
9 | 63 | Simon Forsmark | D | SuperElit | DY |
9 | 64 | Jake Furlong | D | QMJHL | DY |
9 | 65 | Maveric Lamoureux | D | QMJHL | DY |
9 | 66 | Filip Bystedt | F | SuperElit | DY |
9 | 67 | Noah Warren | D | QMJHL | DY |
9 | 68 | Markus Vidicek | F | QMJHL | DY |
9 | 69 | Mats Lindgren | D | WHL | DY |
9 | 70 | Hudson Thornton | D | WHL | DY |
9 | 71 | Ilya Ivantsov | F | VHL | DY+1 |
9 | 72 | Calle Odelius | D | SuperElit | DY |
9 | 73 | Tomas Hamara | D | Liiga | DY |
9 | 74 | Tucker Robertson | F | OHL | DY+1 |
10 | 75 | Elmeri Laakso | D | Liiga | DY |
10 | 76 | Dylan James | F | USHL | DY |
10 | 77 | Alex Sotek | F | Liiga | DY |
10 | 78 | Ilya Kvochko | F | MHL | DY |
10 | 79 | Kirill Kudryavtsev | D | OHL | DY |
10 | 80 | Raul Yakupov | F | MHL | DY |
10 | 81 | Logan Morrison | F | OHL | DY+2 |
10 | 82 | Rodwin Dionicio | D | OHL | DY |
10 | 83 | Reid Schaefer | W | WHL | DY |
10 | 84 | Danny Zhilkin | F | OHL | DY |
10 | 85 | David Spacek | D | QMJHL | DY+1 |
10 | 86 | Ben King | F | WHL | DY+2 |
10 | 87 | Jordan Gustafson | C | WHL | DY |
10 | 88 | Danil Aimurzin | C | VHL | DY+2 |
10 | 89 | Joel Jonsson | W | SuperElit | DY |
HM: Luke Mittelstadt, D, DY+1; Zakhar Vinogradov, G, DY+1; Michal Gut, C, DY+2, Jeremy Wilmer, W, DY+1
Some things to note on my list:
1. Jordan Dumais. He is one of the most under rated players in the draft. He has one of the highest likelihoods of becoming a top 6 player and is constantly ranked in the 70s. I know he's small and his skating isn't elite, but he is someone I'd be willing to swing for the fences on.
2. The WHL dmen. Korchinski & Mateychuk are both two of the premier offensive dmen in this draft; I wouldn't be shocked if either of the two became the best defenceman from this class. If Mateychuk was a little bit bigger I think he'd be in my top 10.
3. The Russians. What Trikozov did as an U18 in the MHL was incredible. He had one of the best U18 seasons of all time while playing far less minutes than some of those ahead of him. He is my favorite prospect in the draft and someone I'd love to snag should he fall in the draft; if not for the current political issues he would be #5 on my board. Yurov was no slouch either and while he didn't produce in the KHL his MHL numbers were outstanding. I'd have liked to have seen him at the WJC, but his MHL numbers are enough for him to stay in my top 10. Without the political issues he'd be my 8th on my board
4. The Goalies. This draft is lacking any sort of can't miss goalie prospect, but there are still 2 interesting ones. Hugo Havelid may have had the best U18 tourney possible for his draft stock and it really solidified his position in my mind as the best goalie in the draft. While he is small his numbers and play speak for themselves. Nick Malik is my #2 ranked goalie. He was outstanding this year in the Liiga as a DY+2 and had a season worthy of being a top 90 pick.
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wingerdinger
Registered User
- Oct 21, 2018
- 1,300
- 1,288
Do you take into account the difficulty of the leagues that the prospects play in? If so how do u decide the given value?
DatsyukToZetterberg
Alligator!
I didn't feel as though I really needed to directly control for league difficulty. Each league had their own self-contained model, meaning that I only used data from within that league to produce the outputs. In my mind the logistic regression already controls for difficulty because the response variable is "Did the player make it to the NHL?". A league that produces fewer NHLers will generally only give higher probability of success to prospects that have had exceptional performances.
In order to create a model that I felt was robust enough the league must have had 10 years of data and a sufficient number of players make it to the NHL. This meant that certain league such as the MHL didn't have enough player level data to be properly trained and leagues that don't produce a ton of NHL talent weren't used, such as the Jr. A leagues in Canada.
I could probably approach it from a different way and have the leagues themselves act as variables in the regression. This is my 1st attempt so I'm sure there are improvements that I can make as time goes on.
Frk It
Mo Seider Less Problems
- Jul 27, 2010
- 36,875
- 15,780
If your rankings are based on a statistical model, how can you have Lambert ranked that highly?
DatsyukToZetterberg
Alligator!
The rankings aren't fully based off the model. What I've found is that prospect models are excellent at helping you avoid the land mines of a draft and preventing reaches. They're an excellent first step, but there is always nuance required when creating your list. It's why I don't have Beck, Guindon, or McConnell-Barker ranked. I think that they'll likely be top 60 or top 90 picks and I don't see them having that sort of value.
The nuance is needed because the model outputs still need to be interpreted. The model grades Brett MacLean very highly, but it doesn't know that he played a ton of minutes with John Tavares. However, it also correctly identified that Gudbranson likely doesn't put up the value you would normally expect from a 3rd overall pick.
Lambert actually grades out pretty well because he's playing in the Liiga. Not at a top 10 level, but clearly still a 1st round talent. By just playing in a pro league in his draft year a player's probability of making it to the NHL increases significantly.
Frk It
Mo Seider Less Problems
- Jul 27, 2010
- 36,875
- 15,780
DatsyukToZetterberg
Alligator!
I guess that's in the eye of the beholder. I would say yes there is immense value in it. Nobody has ever said it's an all or nothing approach when using models. I see tremendous value in having a tool that can help check traditional scouting's biases and avoid reaching for players that may not have the upside the pick warrants. I know that the model would significantly disagree with some of the picks the Wings made in the 2013 to 2017 period.
I'm not advocating for a model only approach. I believe the ideal approach is one that blends both model based tools and traditional scouting. Both complement each other extremely well and are able to assess the blindspots/biases that the other has. There's no silver bullet when it comes to drafting. Using a combination of all the tools at one's disposal is not a bad thing.
- Jan 17, 2018
- 3,905
- 8,696
Thanks for providing an overview of your model. I think once you get past the first two rounds (or maybe top 75 players or so) a model is much more helpful. Scouts likely see the top prospects numerous times and can, if they are willing to be self-critical, identify "blindspots" about a prospect. That likely doesn't happen when a prospect is viewed much less.
I have developed a model that identifies D prospects generally ranked outside the top 50. It doesn't identify every prospect who is available in the 3rr/4th/ round who will eventually make the NHL. But it does increase the probability significantly. I really try not to use my "eye test" to override the model, because in all honesty I can't see what makes a D prospect successful.
Some prospects the model identified in the past three drafts who look to be "steals": Jordan Spence, Henry Thrun, Zac Jones, Ronan Seeley, Guillaume Richard. Of course, it also identified Ryan Siedem who didn't get drafted at all and Simon Lundmark and Samuel Bolduc who look like they might stall in the AHL.
DatsyukToZetterberg
Alligator!
No problem, I'm always happy to share. It's something I'm passionate about because I think it can provide a competitive advantage. I totally agree about the top 2 rounds comment as well. I think once you start to see who is "falling" according to the model you can target them as potential value picks.
I think traditional scouting can still help for the later rounds. A player does need to have a certain skating level or mobility to succeed at higher levels and traditional scouting can also add some context to the players role. I think you're also right that for the blended system to be effective you need to have a scouting group that is okay with having to be self-critical and admit they have their own biases.
I'd be curious to see how are models differ in evaluating defenceman. This model was quite high on those that you listed, it also thought someone like Durzi was draft worthy a year before they were drafted.
Frk It
Mo Seider Less Problems
- Jul 27, 2010
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That makes sense, I was just curious.
I know for me for example, yeah Dumais had more points than Firkus. But I like Firkus a lot better and I think the WHL is a better league.
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There might be something to that. I have found it very interesting to see these RAS scores that are used now in the NFL draft and how some teams seem to value that and others not.
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- Jan 17, 2018
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I didn't have a moldel (really wasn't even following the draft) in Durzi's draft year or his D+1. The first year was 2019 and it was overly simple--I have added "scouting" particular to skating in that I incorporate the skating ratings from HockepProspect.com. As @Frk It mentions, I also try to calibrate for league, but in a very minimal way.
- Aug 16, 2015
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Blackbook doesn't attempt to pick where players will actually be drafted, but instead projects their long term view of the prospects. They end up with some "hot takes" at times because of that - they don't look so crazy a year or two later many times. I personally think they are the best of the bunch on projectability.How close is the black book to where players have actually been picked? I've read it in the past and I just didn't agree with some of the rankings and reviews of some higher rated/drafted players.
And you can post yours now but post an updated version later.
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