Prospect Info: 2022 NHL Draft

[execwrite1]

Agreed. People really latched on to the whole “no high-end talent” idea because there isn’t a near decade defining talent. There are still a ton of incredible talents that all have their fair share of issues that proper development could/would fix. Am I averse to trading the 1st? Partially, simply because of no 2nd rounder. But there are plenty of talented players (and I’m much more bully on this draft regardless as I think Wright will still be a better player than scouts are pinning him as) that will be found from picks 6 to 25.

Liking how this draft is lining up. Several players could fall to #23 and there are also several at that ranking who can be excellent picks.

As usual, need to find a couple gems in the later rounds.

 

[Robb_K]

I don't like framing this situation necessarily around "greedy self-interest" and "bargaining power."

You don't have to be "emotionally-dominated" to be unhappy where you work. He could just as easily be thinking about what's best for his family, trying not to keep them in limbo.

I'm not saying that's what's happening - last we heard, Tarasenko wants to stay with the team. But there are so many more circumstances and legitimate priorities for people than this narrow, grotesque caricature you've cooked up.

I didn't mean to imply that Tarasenko is greedy, and I don't have a theory that he is just basing his decision-making on his perception of being wronged by how The Blues' doctors handled his shoulder injuries. I was just trying to point out that I think that it is not likely that he will want to be traded now, because, based on how well he gelled this past season with his new, very talented young line mates, and how well The Blues played overall, he probably will want to stay with The Blues (at the VERY LEAST, one more season), to see how well they play, and hoping he can help them Win The Cup. After that, he might well want to stay with The Blues, even though their offer won't likely be the highest. I can't picture him still demanding to be traded before this season starts, or at the trade deadline. That is based on Army's comments on this subject, as well as what I would do, myself, if I were in his shoes. In any case, I don't think Army wants to sign him to an extension until after this season, to see how HE plays, how the team plays, and if he wants to keep him, and how he can clear cap space to do that, without losing other core players he also wants to keep. And, I also don't think Vladdy wants to uproot his family, especially before he becomes sure about whether or not he wants to stay. I don't think he would want to give up a chance to win The Cup again with his teammates, and I think he understands Armstrong's position, and they don't have an adversarial relationship. They both understand that they will have to wait till after this coming season finishes before they find out what can be worked out based on what options will be available to each of them then, and how that situation will be perceived by both of them.

 

[STL fan in MN]

While I can agree with RobbK’s assessment of the situation, I could still see Tarasenko being a bit sour about things and Army preferring to cut ties sooner rather than later if the right deal comes along. I don’t expect a Tarasenko trade to happen but I wouldn’t be surprised if it did.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

While I can agree with RobbK’s assessment of the situation, I could still see Tarasenko being a bit sour about things and Army preferring to cut ties sooner rather than later if the right deal comes along. I don’t expect a Tarasenko trade to happen but I wouldn’t be surprised if it did.

Welcome back!

 

[Beauterham]

The draft is always one of the moments in a hockey year I look forward to. I do not presume to know a lot about hockey, well... not as much as some of you guys, but I still like to learn as much as possible and, where possible, try to identify some nice gems. I try to watch as much footage and read scouting reports as I can and every year I try to compose a list of prospects (who are ranked outside of the 1st round) that I think are underrated for the next draft.

Last year I had a list that included Joshua Roy and Owen Zellweger, so I had that kinda going for me, but I unfortunatly also had quite a few players that I expected to do better. Guess it's a learning curve for me and I'm trying to get better at 'identifying gems' every draft.

This is the list I made for this year. I've mentioned the prospect, the position they play and finally where the scouting agencies expect them to go (which is also how I sorted this list). The players bolded are my personal favorites of this year. As I mentioned earlier, this list is about prospects I think are underrated and are ranked too low, this is due to, for example: age bias, size bias, players that still need to fill their frame, playing in a lesser league, overagers or playing few minutes due to being in a stacked team. Most of the players on this list are good to great skaters.

Name

Position

Exp. draftpos.

B-day/Overager

Notes

Elias Salomonsson	RD	2nd round	Aug B-day	Puck moving D, Inconsistent, Needs to improve defensive awareness
Jani Nyman	RW	2nd round	July B-day	Sniper? Great Shot, Offensive IQ. Needs to improve speed a bit
Adam Sykora	LW	2nd round	Sept B-day	Needs to gain strength
Mats Lindgren	LD	2nd-3rd round	Aug B-day	Puck moving D, High risk/reward
Fraser Minten	C	2nd-3rd round	July B-day	2 Way Forward, Great defensive game
Noah Warren	RD	2nd-3rd round	July B-day	Shut down D, 6'5, needs to improve speed / decisionmaking, played in lesser league
Gavin Hayes	RW	2nd-3rd round	May B-day	Power Forward, needs to improve strength / defensive play
Victor Neuchev	LW	2nd-4th round	Oct B-day	Russian, Sniper, shoot first mentality, needs to grow into frame
Cruz Lucius	RW	2nd-4th round	April B-day	2 Way Forward, middle 6 potential? Lack of viewings due to injury
Jordan Dumais	RW	RW 3rd round	April B-day	Dynamic Playmaking W. Undersized (5'8): This years Johnny Gaudreau/Brayden Point? Hard worker

Vinzenz Rohrer	RW	RW 3rd round	Sept B-day	2-Way Forward, needs to grow into frame, Hard Worker
Dmitri Buchelnikov	RW	3rd round	Overager	Russian, needs to grow into frame, pure offense / no defense
Michael Buchinger	LD	3rd-4th round	April B-day	2-Way D, High upside
Cole Knuble	RW	3rd-4th round	July B-day	Needs to improve skating
Markus Vidicek	C	3rd-4th round	March B-Day	Winger at higher level? Needs to improve defensive positioning
Jake Livanavage	LD	3rd-4th round	May B-day	Needs to grow into frame, Great offensive toolset, needs to improve all-round defensive game. PPQB?
Quinn Finley	LW	3rd-5th round	Aug B-day	Needs to grow into frame
Josh Filmon	LW	3rd-5th round	March B-day	Power Forward, Needs to grow into frame, Needs to improve defensive inconsistency
Tyson Jugnauth	LD	3rd-5th round	April B-day	Offensive D, Needs to grow into frame
Matthew Morden	LD	3rd-7th round	July B-day	big, athletic, High-end Stay at home D. Thanks to @DatDude44 for mentioning him

Zach Bookman	RD	3rd-7th round	2x Overager	Late bloomer, destroyed Cale Makar's record with the Brooks Bandits, although he was 1,5 years older when he did so. Was sheltered behind Corson Ceulemans last season.
Servác Petrovský	C	4th-round	Aug B-day	played a sheltered role for a large chunk of the season
Niks Fenenko	LD	4th round	Aug B-day	Defensive minded puck moving F
Elmeri Laakso	LD	4th - 6th round	July B-day	Offensive D, needs to improve edgework
Samuel Mayer	LD	4th-6th round	Overager	Didn't play 20/21 season, plays on first pairing in OHL, 3rd pairing potential?
Tim Almgren	C	4th-7th round	July B-day	Needs to grow into frame, Winger at higher level?
Jake Richard	RW	4th-undrafted	Aug B-day	Needs to grow into frame, Needs to improve skating?
Connor Hvidston	LW	7th-undrafted	Sept B-day	Needs to grow into frame, needs to improve defensive game
Veit Oswald	RW	7th-undrafted	Aug B-day	Needs to grow into frame

 

[execwrite1]

#1 - Liam Ohgren - LW, Djurgarden Jr. (Sweden-JR.)
#3 - Jake Furlong - LHD, Halifax Mooseheads, 6-foot-1
#4 - Kyle Jackson - C, North Bay (OHL)
#5- Garrett Brown - RHD, Sioux City (USHL)
#6 - Matthew Morden - LHD, St. Andrews College

 

[Linkens Mastery]

Why would ANYONE in Tarasenko's shoes still want to be traded at this point???? He had a super year playing together with Buchnevich and Thomas. The Blues are back as a Stanley Cup contender. He has only THIS upcoming season left on his contract. Why not wait the ONE measly, short year, while seeing what Army does to fortify and improve this team's roster, and see how far they go towards winning The Cup, and THEN go out on the UFA market to maximise the take on your next contract, while also deciding where you want to play for the next several years?

Even if he HATES Blues' managements' guts, because he thinks they handled your shoulder injury poorly, any rational person would wait out this coming season, to have the most options to better situate himself for your near future. It might even be possible that he will have another great year, playing with his two Blues line mates, and solidify any questions about his shoulder problems not being a continued risk, as well as having the chance for personal highs in scoring and possibly leading The Blues to an even longer playoff run (possibly making The Cup Finals (or even winning it), which could maximize his bargaining power as a UFA. I'd bet the farm that Vladdy and Army currently have an understanding to just leave everything like it is, and wait until after the coming season for BOTH of them to decide what they want to do concerning him re-signing or walking away. That gives both sides the most options, and the best chance to be satisfied with the outcome. Only an emotionally-dominated person, not being able to think clearly, would throw those options away reacting to perceived disregard of his welfare due to greedy self-interest, and also thinking that his potential gains from waiting the one season are so small as to not be worth the risk of his getting injured again, and losing his UFA bargaining power, which is now very high. Most star players, in this situation, would bet on themselves having another good year, and increasing their bargaining power.

Ask Tarasenko.

 

[Mike Liut]

Would you be happy with a mid 1st for Tarasenko and a late 1st for Krug?

 

[DatDude44]

Would you be happy with a mid 1st for Tarasenko and a late 1st for Krug?

Personally absolutely. Given Tarasenko is a year from UFA and even if that feels light for krug....these are the kind of pieces we can parlay into deals for a Chycrun or provorov and possibly for a tkachuk.

It gives us a ton of salary cap flexibility that we can use for short term holes to plug while we develop our next wave.

It's fun to think about what we could be 2 years from now with those kind of additions. A core of Thomas, Buchnevich, ROR, Perron(maybe still), Schenn, Kyrou, Bolduc, Neighbours, Tkachuk??? with chycrun, parayko, faulk, Perunovich, binnington and possibly one or two 1st rd picks from this draft could be very interesting for us. Especially given we'd have a ton of cap space if the projected ceiling explosion really does happen in 2 offseasons.

I'll also add even if we keep krug....a tarasenko for mid 1st especially this draft is extremely enticing to me. The thought of Possibly two of Nazar, Mateychuk, Mcgroarty, Chesley, Snuggerud, Kulich, Geekie or Ostlund is extremely exciting for me.

 

[Davimir Tarablad]

Would you be happy with a mid 1st for Tarasenko and a late 1st for Krug?

Sign me the **** up for 2 extra 1sts and $14mil in cap

Personally absolutely. Given Tarasenko is a year from UFA and even if that feels light for krug....these are the kind of pieces we can parlay into deals for a Chycrun or provorov and possibly for a tkachuk.

It gives us a ton of salary cap flexibility that we can use for short term holes to plug while we develop our next wave.

It's fun to think about what we could be 2 years from now with those kind of additions. A core of Thomas, Buchnevich, ROR, Perron(maybe still), Schenn, Kyrou, Bolduc, Neighbours, Tkachuk??? with chycrun, parayko, faulk, Perunovich, binnington and possibly one or two 1st rd picks from this draft could be very interesting for us. Especially given we'd have a ton of cap space if the projected ceiling explosion really does happen in 2 offseasons.

I'll also add even if we keep krug....a tarasenko for mid 1st especially this draft is extremely enticing to me. The thought of Possibly two of Nazar, Mateychuk, Mcgroarty, Chesley, Snuggerud, Kulich, Geekie or Ostlund is extremely exciting for me.

If we added another 1st, I don't see us both picks. I'd pretty much guarantee we'd end up sending one of those two out in a deal, like we did in 2017(Before we traded back into the 1st round again)

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Would you be happy with a mid 1st for Tarasenko and a late 1st for Krug?

Having zero cap coming back in either of those deals is as valuable as the assets themselves. But that makes those scenarios unlikely. More realistic would be at least SOME salary back, which makes the answer, “it depends”. But the quality of assets themselves is pretty attractive.

 

[Memento]

Would you be happy with a mid 1st for Tarasenko and a late 1st for Krug?

Damn right I would be happy. If we added Barbashev as another tradeable asset (selling high on him has been my top priority from the start), I'd be even happier. We could pool together some of those assets for Chychrun, which would fill a huge need.

Either way, tonight's draft looks to be very interesting, and not just in terms of whom we pick.

 

[Bluesnatic27]

I know he’s a very questionable prospect given his up-and-down year. But if the Blues have the chance to take Brad Lambert, I’d be all for it. He has the talent where I think he would fit in fine on any 3rd line if selected and his potential is too tantalizing if he can learn how to play a professional game. I think he’s a safe bet at an NHL player that would benefit from proper development.

 

[The Note]

I know he’s a very questionable prospect given his up-and-down year. But if the Blues have the chance to take Brad Lambert, I’d be all for it. He has the talent where I think he would fit in fine on any 3rd line if selected and his potential is too tantalizing if he can learn how to play a professional game. I think he’s a safe bet at an NHL player that would benefit from proper development.

Agreed. I would bet on the physical talent/skill and hope the organization can fix some of the issues that seem to pop up in every scouting report (taking shifts off, turnovers). I think he is exactly the type of pick you make at 23 where if he hits he can be transformational. He's one of the prospects I find most intriguing, particularly with his range of possibilities in most mocks. Admittedly, I am basing almost all of my opinions on scouting reports and chopped up YT highlights, so I will be the first to admit I am not by any means a wealth of knowledge on NHL prospects.

 

[Brian39]

Arizona picks 7 times inside the top 45 and 3 times in the 1st.

Look at their 2nds the lucky bastards, 34th, 36th, 43rd and 45th.

Jelly, so very, very jelly.

I wouldn't call it luck. Bill Armstrong put on an absolute clinic in how to stockpile early 2nds during a rebuild. They got lucky that the Islanders were worse than expected (#45), but the #36 and #43 were acquired from Philly and San Jose last summer. I think the smart money was on both of those teams finishing in the bottom half of the league. Teams give up 2nd rounders much more willingly than 1sts and they made sure that they were trading with teams that were either bubble or non-playoff teams when they were targeting 2nds. Those picks being in the front half of the 2nd round was baked into the trade value.

I'm not jealous of the Yotes because they are still in the front section of a 'burn it all down' rebuild. This past year was year 1 of a plan that appears to be a 2-3 year tank that sees them playing as the secondary tenant in a college arena. B Army may very well build a powerhouse with all of the draft capital he is collecting, but there is still going to be a lot of pain and I don't think they are fully out of the woods as a relocation risk.

With all that said, their draft is by far the most compelling storyline for me (not including keeping an eye on what the Blues are doing). I want to see B Army succeed as a GM and his scouting background tells me that he can find talent up and down the first 2 rounds. No team "needs" to make 7 selections in the first 45 picks, so he has the ability to chuck in a 2nd rounder (or two) in a deal in order to move up just a few spots to get a guy he loves. Maybe they are content picking #3 overall and then going volume over specific targets with their 6 picks between 27 and 45. There is a decent argument that teams are largely just buying lottery tickets by the end of the 1st round. But there is also a good argument that making sure to nab B Army's 3 or 4 favorite prospects in that range is a better use of those 6 assets. He has a great track record at that point in the draft, so it would make sense to consolidate those picks into getting his guys.

On paper, we seem like ideal trade partners. Our pick is 4 spots in front of their second 1st rounder, which is prime territory for a trade where you are worried about just missing out on a guy you have rated highly. We don't have a 2nd rounder in this draft or next draft, so it would really make sense for us to try see if Arizona would give up one of their 2nds in order to move up from 27 to 23. Normally, I'd say that a early-to-mid 2nd is too much to pay to move up from 27 to 23, but Arizona's surplus of those assets probably makes it worth it for them. And given the two Army's familiarity with each other, they should have a good line of communication and an idea about where each other's draft preferences differ. If B Army values a guy still on the board at 23 more than we do, that shouldn't be a difficult discussion to have with D Army.

All of this could be moot by the time we're on the clock. But if we aren't in love with any prospect still on the board (or if we are still in love with 2-3 guys that we think would still be there at 27), then a trade with Arizona to add a 2nd makes a ton of sense.

 

[Stealth JD]

I know he’s a very questionable prospect given his up-and-down year. But if the Blues have the chance to take Brad Lambert, I’d be all for it. He has the talent where I think he would fit in fine on any 3rd line if selected and his potential is too tantalizing if he can learn how to play a professional game. I think he’s a safe bet at an NHL player that would benefit from proper development.

Do NOT want Lambert. I can think of 20 other guys who may be available in that spot that I'd take before Lambert. I'd take him in the 3rd maybe if he were still available. I think he's a guy that is going to fall into the 2nd and I'd rather take one of the Russians (Yurov, Miroshnichenko) or Swedes (Östlund, Öhgren) or heck, even the Swede (Bischel) before I take the stinking Finn with no hockey sense. Right, @Ranksu?

 

[Brian39]

Why would ANYONE in Tarasenko's shoes still want to be traded at this point???? He had a super year playing together with Buchnevich and Thomas. The Blues are back as a Stanley Cup contender. He has only THIS upcoming season left on his contract. Why not wait the ONE measly, short year, while seeing what Army does to fortify and improve this team's roster, and see how far they go towards winning The Cup, and THEN go out on the UFA market to maximise the take on your next contract, while also deciding where you want to play for the next several years?

Even if he HATES Blues' managements' guts, because he thinks they handled your shoulder injury poorly, any rational person would wait out this coming season, to have the most options to better situate himself for your near future. It might even be possible that he will have another great year, playing with his two Blues line mates, and solidify any questions about his shoulder problems not being a continued risk, as well as having the chance for personal highs in scoring and possibly leading The Blues to an even longer playoff run (possibly making The Cup Finals (or even winning it), which could maximize his bargaining power as a UFA. I'd bet the farm that Vladdy and Army currently have an understanding to just leave everything like it is, and wait until after the coming season for BOTH of them to decide what they want to do concerning him re-signing or walking away. That gives both sides the most options, and the best chance to be satisfied with the outcome. Only an emotionally-dominated person, not being able to think clearly, would throw those options away reacting to perceived disregard of his welfare due to greedy self-interest, and also thinking that his potential gains from waiting the one season are so small as to not be worth the risk of his getting injured again, and losing his UFA bargaining power, which is now very high. Most star players, in this situation, would bet on themselves having another good year, and increasing their bargaining power.

There are plenty of reasons that a person could want to make a clean break on a job or on a city that they live in.

I loved the Colorado town that I lived in before moving back to St. Louis. I preferred my old job to my current job and I made more money. I started my career in that town and re-starting my professional network in a new city isn't ideal. But family drew me back to St. Louis. There was no amount of career contentment and idyllic mountain lifestyle that was going to outweigh spending more time with my aging parents and being present to watch my nieces and nephews grow up.

Obviously Tarasenko doesn't have the exact same family draw that I had, but he still has very real family considerations that might very well outweigh how he values his career performance and his earning potential. He has two school-aged children, one of whom is 15 (so early high school). That kid has known that he's moving to a new city at some point and knows that the friends he has now won't be the friends he graduates with. He knew that all last year and I'd imagine the entire family doesn't want to put him through that again. I'd also assume that they want to move the 6 and 3 year olds as soon as they can as well.

He is compensated extremely well and that absolutely eases the reality of uprooting your family. But that doesn't mean that these guys don't have real family considerations that impact what they want to do with their careers. You can't get back time and spending 2 years just waiting to eventually move has real-world stress involved. We heard rumors about the list of places he'd be willing to go. I assume that he'd be eager/willing to stay in those places long term. It would make sense to try and get moved to one of those places (and get to work on an extension ASAP) now instead of dragging it out. That can be true even if he is still enjoying the time he spends at work and recognizes that he is in a good spot from a career-advancement perspective.

Even ignoring all that, he just had a career year. He is in a good position to replicate that before UFA, but any injury (or a down year) next season probably reduces his bargaining power. Getting traded and then getting an extension this summer is a good business decision if he values locking in his last NHL contract over trying to maximize every last dollar.

 

[Brian39]

Would you be happy with a mid 1st for Tarasenko and a late 1st for Krug?

In a vacuum without knowing how we use those assets and cap space? No.

In a scenario where those assets and some/most of the cap space are then used to add two medium-to-long term legit top 4 LD without giving up much else? Absolutely.

For example, let's say we then flip two of the three 1st rounders we now have in a deal for Chychrun and then re-sign Leddy at a deal around $4.5M AAV. When the dust settles, we'd have upgraded the LD from where we are at today and our 2022/23 cap obligation would still be $4-5M less than what it is today. We'd be eating into our cap obligation for 2023/24 and beyond, but I think that $22-$23M locked up in Faulk/Parayko/Chychrun/Leddy in 2023/24 and 2024/25 is a better use of the cap than $19.5M on Faulk/Parayko/Krug. I'd be happy with that outcome and then I would shift gears to using that freshly created additional cap space to agree to an expensive 1 year deal with Perron. In this hypothetical, we suddenly have the cap space to offer Perron a 1 year, $8M deal with the understanding that we will then negotiate a bonus-laden 1 year deal for 2023/24 as soon as we are allowed to. All of this gets us to a point where we have $5-6M in remaining space to fill in holes around this lineup:

Buch-ROR-Perron
Schenn-Thomas-Kyrou
Saad-Barby-XXX
Torp-Brown-XXX

Leddy-Parayko
Chychrun-Faulk
Scandella-Bortz
Rosen

Binner
XXX

Ignore the lines and pairs as I'm just filling in names to demonstrate that we've got 8 legit top 9 forwards and the D basically settled. I'd let Neighbours and Bolduc fight for that last top 9 spot in camp and signing a few 12th-14th forwards on the cheap is Army's specialty. That remaining $5-6M in space should allow you to fill in all the depth holes AND have $1-2M in cushion to bank space to rent a 3rd line winger mid-season if neither of the prospects can seize the job. If you can turn Tarasenko and Krug into a medium-term solution to the top 4 LD weakness AND open up additional short-term cap space to remain a contender in 2022/23, then I'd be happy.

But if we simply draft prospects with those picks and then pay market price to plug the holes we created then I would hate the trades. Given the number of moving parts, making those trades AND flipping the 1sts all on draft day seems incredibly unlikely. Army plays things close to the vest, but this would require at least 3 other teams to be involved. I think we would be hearing a hell of a lot more chatter about it by now if Army was going to swing all this in the next 9 hours.

 

[Davimir Tarablad]

Draft day today

 

[ChicagoBlues]

Draft day today

Is the other guy flossing his teeth?

——

Kraken have the 4th OA pick and have four 2nd rounders. Good for them.

Avs don’t pick until 6th round tomorrow and then in the 2023 draft they pick in rounds 1, 5, 6 & 7.

 

[Majorityof1]

Ok, who do we want with our pick (assuming we use it)? Draft snuck up on me this year so I didn't look into the prospects like I normally do. So whoever tells me who we want first, that's who I'll be rooting for.

 

[tfriede2]

Ok, who do we want with our pick (assuming we use it)? Draft snuck up on me this year so I didn't look into the prospects like I normally do. So whoever tells me who we want first, that's who I'll be rooting for.

Risky Russian - Miroshnichenko.
Traditional Blues pick - McGroarty
Smaller player but extremely skilled - Firkus
Offensive D-man - Mintyukov
Defensive D-man - Bischel
Swede - Ostlund

I’d be fine with any of these, though Bischel would be biggest boom/bust

 

[Bobby Orrtuzzo]

Bergman Lookin rough

 

[mk80]

Here we go!

 

[Majorityof1]

Risky Russian - Miroshnichenko.
Traditional Blues pick - McGroarty
Smaller player but extremely skilled - Firkus
Offensive D-man - Mintyukov
Defensive D-man - Bischel
Swede - Ostlund

I’d be fine with any of these, though Bischel would be biggest boom/bust

So I'll be rooting for getting one of those guys except McGroarty then Not a fan of the Bluesy choice in the first round.