Prospect Info: 2022 NHL Draft

[Beauterham]

I kind of remember Thompson was our last 1st round rated prospect and that's why we traded up a couple spots to get him. And besides Kyrou, who we drafted and DeBrincat, that's a pretty good evaluation.

If I remember correctly, Bill Armstrong mentioned Tage was the only center left that, in their eyes, had first line potential.

And eventhough that seemed unlikely for a long time, eventually Bill was right, as Tage is now the Sabres first line center. Actually, there were only 3 forwards selected after him who are having a better career (until now): Jordan Kyrou, Alex DeBrincat and Jesper Bratt.

 

[rumrokh]

I kind of remember Thompson was our last 1st round rated prospect and that's why we traded up a couple spots to get him. And besides Kyrou, who we drafted and DeBrincat, that's a pretty good evaluation.

Yea. I definitely remember DeBrincat falling quite a bit, but I couldn't recall what Kyrou's pre-draft ranking was and didn't feel like looking it up, so the other guys were good enough for my point.

 

[Beauterham]

It seems Army is contemplating the idea of moving back in the draft.



The only teams in late 20's / early 30's that currently have the picks to fit this description are Arizona and Montreal.

 

[TK 421]

Arizona picks 7 times inside the top 45 and 3 times in the 1st.

Look at their 2nds the lucky bastards, 34th, 36th, 43rd and 45th.

Jelly, so very, very jelly.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Picking up an extra 2nd or 3rd would be helpful. Either more prospects or trade chips at deadline.

 

[Stealth JD]

Arizona picks 7 times inside the top 45 and 3 times in the 1st.

Look at their 2nds the lucky bastards, 34th, 36th, 43rd and 45th.

Jelly, so very, very jelly.

they could trade some of those to us for 23.

 

[TK 421]

they could trade some of those to us for 23.

"Geez! That bundle of picks looks REALLY heavy. We could give you our 23rd for your 36th and 45th picks, you know, to be neighborly."

 

[Beauterham]

Chase McCallum has some interesting articles about draftbiases where he analyses the succes of the picks in the 2007-2014 drafts. Some really interesting statistics.

Teams overvalue toughness

2022 NHL Draft Preview and Research: Using Penalty Minutes to Prove That Teams Overvalue Toughness

This article is part three in a series that aims to re-think how we look at, and evaluate, the NHL Entry Draft. The previous post aimed to prove that NHLe

www.actionnetwork.com

Age biases

2022 NHL Draft Preview and Analysis: Age As a Bias

This article is part of a series that aims to re-think how we look at the NHL Draft. The previous posts have looked at NHL draft market inefficiencies. These are

www.actionnetwork.com

NHLe

2022 NHL Draft Preview and Research: Is NHLe the Best Way to Evaluate a Prospect's Value?

This article is part of a series that aims to re-think how we look at the NHL Draft. We will be looking at various statistics which have predicted which NHL

www.actionnetwork.com

TLTR:
- Drafted players with high PIM's tend to bust;
- Teams tend to mostly draft players born in January - May;
- Drafted players born in January and February have, by far, the biggest chance to bust;
- Drafted players born in July and August have, by far, the biggest chance not to bust (Guess you could also add players born in the first half of September).
- Teams do not value high scoring players high enough.

 

[Beauterham]

Age biases

2022 NHL Draft Preview and Analysis: Age As a Bias

This article is part of a series that aims to re-think how we look at the NHL Draft. The previous posts have looked at NHL draft market inefficiencies. These are

www.actionnetwork.com

TLTR:
- Teams tend to mostly draft players born in January - May;
- Drafted players born in January and February have, by far, the biggest chance to bust;
- Drafted players born in July and August have, by far, the biggest chance not to bust (Guess you could also add players born in the first half of September).

Checked the Central Scoutings Rankings for this year specifically for prospects ranked in the top 32 (both the NA and ITL-list) that were born in January and Februari. As we have 12 months in a year you'd expect on average there are going to be 2-3 prospects ranked for every single month (there were no overagers ranked on both lists), so for Jan+Feb it's expected there are 4 to 6 prospects ranked on average.

However on the NA-list there are 12 players ranked born in Jan+Feb (which is more than a 3rd of the list) and on the ITL-list there are 8 players born in Jan+Feb. Now lets look at the amount of ranked players born from July to Sept 15th. On the NA-list there are only 2 were you'd expect 5-8. On the ITL-list there are only 4.

Conclusion: This seems to confirm there is a huge bias in drafting players specifically born in January and February while the youngest first eligible draftees (born from July to Sept 15th) are hardly ranked at all. Scouting agencies seems to underrate the youngest first eligible prospects by quite a fair bit.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

Cool posts, @Beauterham!!!

 

[Beauterham]

Cool posts, @Beauterham!!!

Thanks.

Let's look at Chase's analysis again for a second and compare that to the Central Scouting Rankings. These are most of the first year prospects that were born from July to September 15. I've then removed some prospects that were either really small and didn't produce at a very high level, had a super high PIM-average or produced below average in a subpar league:

NA-list
14 MATEYCHUK, DENTON MOOSE JAW WHL 12-Jul-2004 5' 10.75" 188 lbs * D L 65 13 51 64 15
28 MINTEN, FRASER KAMLOOPS WHL 05-Jul-2004 6' 1.0" 185 lbs * C L 67 20 35 55 57
33 WARREN, NOAH GATINEAU QMJHL 15-Jul-2004 6' 5.0" 216 lbs * D R 62 5 19 24 52
36 FINLEY, QUINN MADISON USHL 08-Aug-2004 5' 11.5" 168 lbs * LW L 39 12 17 29 16
42 ROHRER, VINZENZ OTTAWA OHL 09-Sep-2004 5' 10.25" 163 lbs * C R 64 25 23 48 14
47 LINDGREN, MATS KAMLOOPS WHL 26-Aug-2004 5' 10.75" 173 lbs * D L 68 5 39 44 42
58 PETROVSKY, SERVAC OWEN SOUND OHL 10-Aug-2004 5' 9.75" 172 lbs * C L 65 28 26 54 28
84 KNUBLE, COLE FARGO USHL 01-Jul-2004 5' 9.75" 175 lbs * RW R 62 20 29 49 14
107 HVIDSTON, CONNOR SWIFT CURRENT WHL 11-Sep-2004 6' 1.5" 164 lbs * LW L 58 13 19 32 14
124 FENENKO, NIKS BAIE-COMEAU QMJHL 18-Aug-2004 6' 0.5" 168 lbs * D L 62 6 34 40 20
190 MORDEN, MATTHEW ST. ANDREWS COLLEGE HIGH-ON 29-Jul-2004 6' 3.75" 203 lbs * D L 41 8 27 35 22

ITL-list
6 LEKKERIMAKI, JONATHAN DJURGARDEN SWEDEN 24-Jul-2004 5' 10.5" 165 lbs * RW R 26 7 2 9 0
12 SALOMONSSON, ELIAS SKELLEFTEA JR. SWEDEN-JR. 31-Aug-2004 6' 0.0" 172 lbs * D R 35 11 11 22 10
15 TRIKOZOV, GLEB OMSK 2 RUSSIA-JR. 12-Aug-2004 6' 1.0" 185 lbs LW R 35 23 22 45 22
24 NYMAN, JANI KOOVEE FINLAND-2 30-Jul-2004 6' 2.75" 212 lbs * RW L 34 18 17 35 20
42 SYKORA, ADAM NITRA SLOVAKIA 07-Sep-2004 5' 10.25" 172 lbs * LW L 46 10 7 17 6
66 LAAKSO, ELMERI SAIPA JR. FINLAND-JR. 19-Jul-2004 6' 1.0" 185 lbs D L 25 7 11 18 16
108 OSWALD, VEIT LANDSHUT JR. GERMANY-JR. 31-Aug-2004 6' 0.75" 165 lbs * RW L 31 28 23 51 8

If we presume the statistics on scouting/draftbias is true, then quite a few players on this list are probably ranked way too low for their actuall skill and potential. If, in a few years, we're talking about 'steals of the 2022 draft', it might very well be that a few of those names are going to be on this list based solely on birthdate.

 

[Blanick]

I haven't followed this years prospects nearly as much as I have in past years. Trying to play some catch up in the last week or so and the main thought that keeps forming in my head is that I think this is a year to trade a 1st rounder. I just don't see a lot of high end talent in this draft and even if there was this pick likely wouldn't become a difference maker for this team until major pieces of our core are moving out of their prime. If I am Army putting together a package to pry a top 4 defenseman with some years remaining on his contract. Obviously the big fish is Chychrun but determining the price I think the Blues should shift their focus to Sanheim or Provorov.

 

[Beauterham]

I haven't followed this years prospects nearly as much as I have in past years. Trying to play some catch up in the last week or so and the main thought that keeps forming in my head is that I think this is a year to trade a 1st rounder. I just don't see a lot of high end talent in this draft and even if there was this pick likely wouldn't become a difference maker for this team until major pieces of our core are moving out of their prime. If I am Army putting together a package to pry a top 4 defenseman with some years remaining on his contract. Obviously the big fish is Chychrun but determining the price I think the Blues should shift their focus to Sanheim or Provorov.

I think all the fuss about the lack of high-end talent in this years draft is overrated. The problem with this years draft is mostly with the lack of elite talent in the top5-10. However, outside of the top 10 I'd argue this might even be quite a decent draft, especially at defense.

That being said, if we're able to get a young-ish good lefthanded top-4 defenseman for a package mainly around 23? Sure, go ahead! But if we decide we're going to use our pick ourselves I'd be ecstatic if we could get 'a Mintyukov / Mateychuk / Korchinski / or whomever...' Not a fan of Chychrun though... His injury-past scares me.

 

[Blueswin]

Not to disappoint but the Blues rarely draft def. in the 1st round.

 

[Bluesnatic27]

I think all the fuss about the lack of high-end talent in this years draft is overrated. The problem with this years draft is mostly with the lack of elite talent in the top5-10. However, outside of the top 10 I'd argue this might even be quite a decent draft, especially at defense.

That being said, if we're able to get a young-ish good lefthanded top-4 defenseman for a package mainly around 23? Sure, go ahead! But if we decide we're going to use our pick ourselves I'd be ecstatic if we could get 'a Mintyukov / Mateychuk / Korchinski / or whomever...' Not a fan of Chychrun though... His injury-past scares me.

Agreed. People really latched on to the whole “no high-end talent” idea because there isn’t a near decade defining talent. There are still a ton of incredible talents that all have their fair share of issues that proper development could/would fix. Am I averse to trading the 1st? Partially, simply because of no 2nd rounder. But there are plenty of talented players (and I’m much more bully on this draft regardless as I think Wright will still be a better player than scouts are pinning him as) that will be found from picks 6 to 25.

 

[Beauterham]

Not to disappoint but the Blues rarely draft def. in the 1st round.

Yup, the last Defenseman we drafted in the 1st was Jordan Schmaltz all the way back in 2012. We did draft some in the 2nd since then: Vanelli, Dunn and Perunovich. I guess the Blues think the succesrate of forwards is typically higher in the 1st compared to defenseman. Eventually we're going to draft a D in the 1st again, bu if it's this year? Who knows... if the consensus BPA is a defenseman IMO we should draft him.

On a different note, I totally do expect us to use one of our picks to draft a goalie this year.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Yup, the last Defenseman we drafted in the 1st was Jordan Schmaltz all the way back in 2012. We did draft some in the 2nd since then: Vanelli, Dunn and Perunovich. I guess the Blues think the succesrate of forwards is typically higher in the 1st compared to defenseman. Eventually we're going to draft a D in the 1st again, bu if it's this year? Who knows... if the consensus BPA is a defenseman IMO we should draft him.

On a different note, I totally do expect us to use one of our picks to draft a goalie this year.

I hope not. This goalie crop is by all accounts pretty bad.

 

[Renard]

Thanks.

Let's look at Chase's analysis again for a second and compare that to the Central Scouting Rankings. These are most of the first year prospects that were born from July to September 15. I've then removed some prospects that were either really small and didn't produce at a very high level, had a super high PIM-average or produced below average in a subpar league:

NA-list
14 MATEYCHUK, DENTON MOOSE JAW WHL 12-Jul-2004 5' 10.75" 188 lbs * D L 65 13 51 64 15
28 MINTEN, FRASER KAMLOOPS WHL 05-Jul-2004 6' 1.0" 185 lbs * C L 67 20 35 55 57
33 WARREN, NOAH GATINEAU QMJHL 15-Jul-2004 6' 5.0" 216 lbs * D R 62 5 19 24 52
36 FINLEY, QUINN MADISON USHL 08-Aug-2004 5' 11.5" 168 lbs * LW L 39 12 17 29 16
42 ROHRER, VINZENZ OTTAWA OHL 09-Sep-2004 5' 10.25" 163 lbs * C R 64 25 23 48 14
47 LINDGREN, MATS KAMLOOPS WHL 26-Aug-2004 5' 10.75" 173 lbs * D L 68 5 39 44 42
58 PETROVSKY, SERVAC OWEN SOUND OHL 10-Aug-2004 5' 9.75" 172 lbs * C L 65 28 26 54 28
84 KNUBLE, COLE FARGO USHL 01-Jul-2004 5' 9.75" 175 lbs * RW R 62 20 29 49 14
107 HVIDSTON, CONNOR SWIFT CURRENT WHL 11-Sep-2004 6' 1.5" 164 lbs * LW L 58 13 19 32 14
124 FENENKO, NIKS BAIE-COMEAU QMJHL 18-Aug-2004 6' 0.5" 168 lbs * D L 62 6 34 40 20
190 MORDEN, MATTHEW ST. ANDREWS COLLEGE HIGH-ON 29-Jul-2004 6' 3.75" 203 lbs * D L 41 8 27 35 22

ITL-list
6 LEKKERIMAKI, JONATHAN DJURGARDEN SWEDEN 24-Jul-2004 5' 10.5" 165 lbs * RW R 26 7 2 9 0
12 SALOMONSSON, ELIAS SKELLEFTEA JR. SWEDEN-JR. 31-Aug-2004 6' 0.0" 172 lbs * D R 35 11 11 22 10
15 TRIKOZOV, GLEB OMSK 2 RUSSIA-JR. 12-Aug-2004 6' 1.0" 185 lbs LW R 35 23 22 45 22
24 NYMAN, JANI KOOVEE FINLAND-2 30-Jul-2004 6' 2.75" 212 lbs * RW L 34 18 17 35 20
42 SYKORA, ADAM NITRA SLOVAKIA 07-Sep-2004 5' 10.25" 172 lbs * LW L 46 10 7 17 6
66 LAAKSO, ELMERI SAIPA JR. FINLAND-JR. 19-Jul-2004 6' 1.0" 185 lbs D L 25 7 11 18 16
108 OSWALD, VEIT LANDSHUT JR. GERMANY-JR. 31-Aug-2004 6' 0.75" 165 lbs * RW L 31 28 23 51 8

If we presume the statistics on scouting/draftbias is true, then quite a few players on this list are probably ranked way too low for their actuall skill and potential. If, in a few years, we're talking about 'steals of the 2022 draft', it might very well be that a few of those names are going to be on this list based solely on birthdate.

Look at those first names! Not a Robert or John or Eddie in the bunch. No wonder the world is falling apart - calling your kid "cole fargo"

 

[Beauterham]

I hope not. This goalie crop is by all accounts pretty bad.

I agree there isn't a goalie prospect available that you'd normally want to use a first or second round pick on, although I can see Arizona use one of their 2nd's and reach for either Brennan or Leinonen as they really lack goalies in their system. For us, I can see us using a 4th-6th to draft a Tyler Muszelik, Dylan Silverstein or Ty Young. That wouldn't be bad.

Look at those first names! Not a Robert or John or Eddie in the bunch. No wonder the world is falling apart - calling your kid "cole fargo"

Well, we do have a Ivan Ivan successor this year: Marcel Marcel

 

[rumrokh]

Look at those first names! Not a Robert or John or Eddie in the bunch. No wonder the world is falling apart - calling your kid "cole fargo"

Juuuust in case you aren't joking: he plays for Fargo.

 

[Bobby Orrtuzzo]

Juuuust in case you aren't joking: he plays for Fargo.

Cole Fargo is much cooler

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Juuuust in case you aren't joking: he plays for Fargo.

What are the odds!

 

[ChicagoBlues]

I think we should draft the Kamloops brothers. Heard they’re pretty good.

 

[Robb_K]

If Tarasenko still wants to be traded, I think Army trades him and uses that money for a LHD

Why would ANYONE in Tarasenko's shoes still want to be traded at this point???? He had a super year playing together with Buchnevich and Thomas. The Blues are back as a Stanley Cup contender. He has only THIS upcoming season left on his contract. Why not wait the ONE measly, short year, while seeing what Army does to fortify and improve this team's roster, and see how far they go towards winning The Cup, and THEN go out on the UFA market to maximise the take on your next contract, while also deciding where you want to play for the next several years?

Even if he HATES Blues' managements' guts, because he thinks they handled your shoulder injury poorly, any rational person would wait out this coming season, to have the most options to better situate himself for your near future. It might even be possible that he will have another great year, playing with his two Blues line mates, and solidify any questions about his shoulder problems not being a continued risk, as well as having the chance for personal highs in scoring and possibly leading The Blues to an even longer playoff run (possibly making The Cup Finals (or even winning it), which could maximize his bargaining power as a UFA. I'd bet the farm that Vladdy and Army currently have an understanding to just leave everything like it is, and wait until after the coming season for BOTH of them to decide what they want to do concerning him re-signing or walking away. That gives both sides the most options, and the best chance to be satisfied with the outcome. Only an emotionally-dominated person, not being able to think clearly, would throw those options away reacting to perceived disregard of his welfare due to greedy self-interest, and also thinking that his potential gains from waiting the one season are so small as to not be worth the risk of his getting injured again, and losing his UFA bargaining power, which is now very high. Most star players, in this situation, would bet on themselves having another good year, and increasing their bargaining power.

 

[rumrokh]

Why would ANYONE in Tarasenko's shoes still want to be traded at this point???? He had a super year playing together with Buchnevich and Thomas. The Blues are back as a Stanley Cup contender. He has only THIS upcoming season left on his contract. Why not wait the ONE measly, short year, while seeing what Army does to fortify and improve this team's roster, and see how far they go towards winning The Cup, and THEN go out on the UFA market to maximise the take on your next contract, while also deciding where you want to play for the next several years?

Even if he HATES Blues' managements' guts, because he thinks they handled your shoulder injury poorly, any rational person would wait out this coming season, to have the most options to better situate himself for your near future. It might even be possible that he will have another great year, playing with his two Blues line mates, and solidify any questions about his shoulder problems not being a continued risk, as well as having the chance for personal highs in scoring and possibly leading The Blues to an even longer playoff run (possibly making The Cup Finals (or even winning it), which could maximize his bargaining power as a UFA. I'd bet the farm that Vladdy and Army currently have an understanding to just leave everything like it is, and wait until after the coming season for BOTH of them to decide what they want to do concerning him re-signing or walking away. That gives both sides the most options, and the best chance to be satisfied with the outcome. Only an emotionally-dominated person, not being able to think clearly, would throw those options away reacting to perceived disregard of his welfare due to greedy self-interest, and also thinking that his potential gains from waiting the one season are so small as to not be worth the risk of his getting injured again, and losing his UFA bargaining power, which is now very high. Most star players, in this situation, would bet on themselves having another good year, and increasing their bargaining power.

I don't like framing this situation necessarily around "greedy self-interest" and "bargaining power."

You don't have to be "emotionally-dominated" to be unhappy where you work. He could just as easily be thinking about what's best for his family, trying not to keep them in limbo.

I'm not saying that's what's happening - last we heard, Tarasenko wants to stay with the team. But there are so many more circumstances and legitimate priorities for people than this narrow, grotesque caricature you've cooked up.