2022 Line Combinations

[Fogelhund]

Those selected stats, which only show one side of the question, merely show that they are both good players, which wasn't the topic.

Which selected stats show the other side?

 

[rocketman588]

Idk if the stats are incorrect

They definitely go on a string once a season where they tweak out however.

Usually get their shit together though

 

[Ianturnedbull]

might be. that's where he started last year. it was Ritchie's uselessness that got Bunting pushed up to the top line in I think it was game 7 of the season, and then suddenly the bad start was over and the team started winning and it just kinda stuck except for when Ritchie got one more chance on the top line about 20gms in and Bunting got bumped to the 4th line, but that only lasted a few games.


Robertson - Matthews - Marner
Bunting - Tavares - Engvall
Kerfoot - Jarnkrok - Nylander
ZAR - Kampf - NAK

would be interesting.

I don't disagree. Some fans would lose their minds if Nylander played on the 3rd line.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Which selected stats show the other side?

You selected stats of them together, with various left wingers. Obviously the other side would be when they weren't together.

 

[Fogelhund]

You selected stats of them together, with various left wingers. Obviously the other side would be when they weren't together.

You measure how lines work together, by using stats when they aren’t together?

Isn’t that exactly the stats I showed? Of different line combos?

Or are you talking just individual stats?

 

[Griffin76]

Technically, Fogelhund was discussing the Tavares/Nylander combo with another individual, and you were the one that tried to come in and police what Fogelhund could post, because for no reason, you disliked the valuable statistical evidence he was using. He even nicely encouraged you to bring your own statistics, and you refused, mocked statistics in general, spammed 3 responses to the same quote, called people homers, and proclaimed your eyes to be infallible...

And ironically, you just did the same at the top of the last page. Although I'd probably call yours more lawyering than policing. I do agree with you though.

 

[Notsince67]

So you "believe in stats 100%", but then refuse to bring any yourself and dismiss the valuable ones brought to you when they don't agree with your pre-determined position? Hmm...

The "eye test" is heavily flawed and subject to significant biases, especially for a casual observer, whether you want to acknowledge it or not.

The eye test vs the analytics crowd both have significant flaws.

Most who know what goes into x stats and look at r^2 agree there are some serious flaws. Ok for even strength but more than pretty bad for PP and PK.
On balance however it would be considered more "good" than "bad"...just not great.
WAR has some advantages over it due to its isolative efforts to measuring different on ice scenarios but looks like it does a poor job of factoring playmaking impact of over-all team wins.
So now we are back to the eye test to assess playmaking and behind the scenes events as the intangible factor. This makes some sense because any weighted shot model would exclude any pre-cursor factors that most reasonable people know-exists.

 

[Shooter2x]

I don't disagree. Some fans would lose their minds if Nylander played on the 3rd line.

No offence to everyone doing it, but it's just plain stupid to not have Nylander beside a fully healthy and prepared JT. So call us crazy and we counter with you being stupid. Sounds fair to me.

You spread the offence only if they prove to not work which is highly unlikely next season.

And no, a chemistry down year where they still put up near ppg and took over the tampa series after game 2 doesn't count as proving they don't have chemistry. All that did was show their floor is high.

 

[Ianturnedbull]

No offence to everyone doing it, but it's just plain stupid to not have Nylander beside a fully healthy and prepared JT. So call us crazy and we counter with you being stupid. Sounds fair to me.

You spread the offence only if they prove to not work which is highly unlikely next season.

And no, a chemistry down year where they still put up near ppg and took over the tampa series after game 2 doesn't count as proving they don't have chemistry. All that did was show their floor is high.

Don't involve me with your name calling rant next time.

I don't like to spend my time going on message boards and calling people "stupid".

Quote someone else.

 

[Zack47]

I hear claims about the depth on this team, deepest ever -- what planet are these people living on? The forward depth is a fundamental issue, and it has NOT been addressed. Kerfoot is still on the team. Each year over the last three, the team gets slightly weaker overall. Good forwards disappear, goalies disappear, and maybe there is some upgrade on defense.

This offseason was a major disappointment, so I am not onside at this point. Dubas needed to be a lot bolder, rather than tinkering and moving around the pawns. Maybe free up cap space by trading away for picks (Kerfoot, Lillegren, Engvall), sign Kadri, move Tavares to wing, make Kadri 2nd line center. Yes, still a big drop off on that third line, no matter what, but that is where we are anyway.

 

[notDatsyuk]

You measure how lines work together, by using stats when they aren’t together?

Isn’t that exactly the stats I showed? Of different line combos?

Or are you talking just individual stats?

If what you are disputing is the suggestion that they perform better when not together, then maybe a stat showing how they perform when not together might be relevant?

 

[Fogelhund]

If what you are disputing is the suggestion that they perform better when not together, then maybe a stat showing how they perform when not together might be relevant?

That was posted.

 

[notDatsyuk]

That was posted.

Yes, finally. Thank you.

 

[zeke]

I don't disagree. Some fans would lose their minds if Nylander played on the 3rd line.

Willy played on the 3rd line for a good chunk of the year last year. Don't remember anyone freaking out.

 

[CabanaBoy5]

I hear claims about the depth on this team, deepest ever -- what planet are these people living on? The forward depth is a fundamental issue, and it has NOT been addressed. Kerfoot is still on the team. Each year over the last three, the team gets slightly weaker overall. Good forwards disappear, goalies disappear, and maybe there is some upgrade on defense.

This offseason was a major disappointment, so I am not onside at this point. Dubas needed to be a lot bolder, rather than tinkering and moving around the pawns. Maybe free up cap space by trading away for picks (Kerfoot, Lillegren, Engvall), sign Kadri, move Tavares to wing, make Kadri 2nd line center. Yes, still a big drop off on that third line, no matter what, but that is where we are anyway.

I partly agree with you but disagree with your first paragraph. As long as we have that core 4, along with Rielly and that good d-core, we will not be slightly worse. Many last year said we'd be weakened by losing Hyman and Andersen, yet finished the season with 115 pts good for 4 overall in the league with a sizable improvement on the previous year where we played in a weaker Canadian division. Bunting turned out to be a great replacement for Hyman.

Now some are crying that we've lost Mikheyev (true story), Kase (injury prone), and Campbell and again are weakened. I trust that there will be internal improvement from Robertson, Steeves, Anderson, and from the players that were brought in like Jarnkrok, NAK, ZAR, etc. There should be growth from Lily and Sandin (when he signs). Goaltending can't be worse than the second half of last year. Our bottom six will not result in our being worse during the regular season, but could be a difference maker in the playoffs. We haven't seen a great performance from our bottom six in the playoffs so I have no problem changing it up.

 

[hobarth]

I hear claims about the depth on this team, deepest ever -- what planet are these people living on? The forward depth is a fundamental issue, and it has NOT been addressed. Kerfoot is still on the team. Each year over the last three, the team gets slightly weaker overall. Good forwards disappear, goalies disappear, and maybe there is some upgrade on defense.

This offseason was a major disappointment, so I am not onside at this point. Dubas needed to be a lot bolder, rather than tinkering and moving around the pawns. Maybe free up cap space by trading away for picks (Kerfoot, Lillegren, Engvall), sign Kadri, move Tavares to wing, make Kadri 2nd line center. Yes, still a big drop off on that third line, no matter what, but that is where we are anyway.

You are aware TO had a record year for Leaf teams last year with 115 points.

 

[Go4soda]

2nd line is a dog that won't hunt. Worse chemistry possible.

i can’t believe we’re running this back again. it clearly didn’t work.

 

[Zybalto]

personally i want more than break even for that investment. last year - lines that played minimum 350 minutes together - sorted by Goals % high to low. I would personally expect better results for a Tavares/Nylander moving forward - or find a combination that delivers it.

Line	Type	Minutes	Games	Goals %	Goals For	Goals Aga	Goals For /60	Goals Against /60
Foligno-Eriksson Ek-Greenway	F	430.8	46	83.30%	25	5	3.48	0.7
Maroon-Bellemare-Perry	F	586.7	70	73.50%	25	9	2.56	0.92
Fast-Staal-Niederreiter	F	534.4	56	72.30%	34	13	3.82	1.46
Gaudreau-Lindholm-Tkachuk	F	965.3	82	69.90%	72	31	4.48	1.93
Hall-Haula-Pastrnak	F	419.8	44	69.20%	27	12	3.86	1.72
Bunting-Matthews-Marner	F	554.7	51	66.30%	61	31	6.6	3.35
Boldy-Gaudreau-Fiala	F	445.3	45	65.40%	34	18	4.58	2.43
Kaprizov-Hartman-Zuccarello	F	638.7	65	64.90%	48	26	4.51	2.44
Barabanov-Hertl-Meier	F	413.2	42	64.10%	25	14	3.63	2.03
Buchnevich-Thomas-Tarasenko	F	369.4	39	63.50%	33	19	5.36	3.09
Forsberg-Granlund-Duchene	F	495.1	62	62.50%	35	21	4.24	2.55
Ovechkin-Kuznetsov-Wilson	F	474.7	63	62.20%	28	17	3.54	2.15
Tkachuk-Norris-Batherson	F	372.6	37	61.90%	26	16	4.19	2.58
Saad-O'Reilly-Perron	F	426.2	50	60%	15	10	2.11	1.41
Robertson-Hintz-Pavelski	F	791.1	72	59.30%	51	35	3.87	2.65
Arvidsson-Danault-Moore	F	472	43	57.10%	28	21	3.56	2.67
Debrincat-Strome-Kane	F	430.8	51	56.90%	29	22	4.04	3.06
Guentzel-Crosby-Rust	F	531.1	48	55.60%	25	20	2.82	2.26
Jeannot-Sissons-Trenin	F	635.5	68	51.30%	20	19	1.89	1.79
Kerfoot-Tavares-Nylander	F	399.9	53	50%	23	23	3.45	3.45
Marchessault-Karlsson-Smith	F	446	40	50%	19	19	2.56	2.56
Iafallo-Kopitar-Kempe	F	436.4	48	50%	16	16	2.2	2.2
Skinner-Thompson-Tuch	F	381.7	42	49.10%	28	29	4.4	4.56
Raymond-Larkin-Bertuzzi	F	456.7	54	46.20%	18	21	2.36	2.76
Martin-Cizikas-Clutterbuck	F	377.9	43	41.20%	7	10	1.11	1.59
Raffl-Glendening-Faksa	F	373.8	62	30.40%	7	16	1.12	2.57

One thing you have to take into account when using goal differential for lines last season is that the Leafs had bottom 5 5v5 goaltending last season which would certainly skew the data.

Much like Matthews weird season when it came to goals against, I dont think its very informative in the case of Tavares/Nylander either, especially since the Leafs were near the top of the league in all the stats we try to use to isolate defensive play (including 4th in the league for xGA last season).

xGF% is far better to use in this situation for them.

 

[Holymakinaw]

You are aware TO had a record year for Leaf teams last year with 115 points.

What on earth does "regular season success" have to do with anything? As soon as the REAL season started, our lack of depth became a glaring issue and we quickly got smoked again in the first round. All teams have to do is shut down our top line somewhat and it's over. We have inconsistent 2nd line production, and non-existent 3rd & 4th line production. And this year's lineup looks even worse.

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

What on earth does "regular season success" have to do with anything? As soon as the REAL season started, our lack of depth became a glaring issue and we quickly got smoked again in the first round. All teams have to do is shut down our top line somewhat and it's over. We have inconsistent 2nd line production, and non-existent 3rd & 4th line production. And this year's lineup looks even worse.

I don't know about you but I actually enjoy watching the regular season and would much prefer we do well than do poorly.

As for getting worse....I don't think I see it. We lost Campbell, Mrazek, Spezza, Simmonds was push out of the regular line up, Mik is gone. None of those 5 players are big losses IMO. A full healthy season for JT with a proper healthy summer, and hopefully better health for Muzzin will both be huge.

Jarnkrok, Aube-Kubel and ZAR will provide more fiestiness. This team will hit more, and the bottom 6 will play a bit more like a classic bottom 6.

The only real question for skaters I have going into camp is which young guys will step up? Full time Sandin? Robertson? Holmberg?

Big question on everyone's mind is of course - how will the goalies fare? I have no concerns about the skaters.

 

[ULF_55]

I hear claims about the depth on this team, deepest ever -- what planet are these people living on? The forward depth is a fundamental issue, and it has NOT been addressed. Kerfoot is still on the team. Each year over the last three, the team gets slightly weaker overall. Good forwards disappear, goalies disappear, and maybe there is some upgrade on defense.

This offseason was a major disappointment, so I am not onside at this point. Dubas needed to be a lot bolder, rather than tinkering and moving around the pawns. Maybe free up cap space by trading away for picks (Kerfoot, Lillegren, Engvall), sign Kadri, move Tavares to wing, make Kadri 2nd line center. Yes, still a big drop off on that third line, no matter what, but that is where we are anyway.

Shouldn't results determine how the off-season went?

One can say they didn't like what transpired in the off-season, but how does one prove it was a major disappointment before a puck is dropped?

Is that like saying signing Bunting last year to play on the top line was a disappointment?
But they didn't sign him to play on the top line!
But he did play on the top line!
So was signing Bunting a disappointment, since he wasn't signed to play on the top line but he did play on the top line?

 

[zeke]

. Each year over the last three, the team gets slightly weaker overall. Good forwards disappear, goalies disappear, and maybe there is some upgrade on defense.

19-20: 95pt pace
20-21: 113pt pace
21-22: 115pt pace

 

[Fogelhund]

Many Leafs fans are clamouring for a big name signing, or trade. When it doesn't happen, it's a disappointing offseason. We didn't get Kane, or Chychrun, so clearly we suck now. Pointing to Kerfoot still being in the lineup, as a reason we suck is a bit ridiculous. I don't think he fits particularly well, but unless one of the young guys really steps up, we are better with him for now.

 

[CabanaBoy5]

What on earth does "regular season success" have to do with anything? As soon as the REAL season started, our lack of depth became a glaring issue and we quickly got smoked again in the first round. All teams have to do is shut down our top line somewhat and it's over. We have inconsistent 2nd line production, and non-existent 3rd & 4th line production. And this year's lineup looks even worse.

That's funny. If getting jobbed in Game 6 by crappy reffing and losing a close game in Game 7 against the eventual SC finalists is "smoked", then I suggest you update your lexicon. Of course that puts into question everything else you've said in this post. We are not worse, in fact, I think we're better equipped for the playoffs with NAK and Jarnkrok, a full year of Gio, and no Mrazek.

 

[Holymakinaw]

That's funny. If getting jobbed in Game 6 by crappy reffing and losing a close game in Game 7 against the eventual SC finalists is "smoked", then I suggest you update your lexicon. Of course that puts into question everything else you've said in this post. We are not worse, in fact, I think we're better equipped for the playoffs with NAK and Jarnkrok, a full year of Gio, and no Mrazek.

Being up 3 games to 2 and losing..........AGAIN.......is indeed "getting smoked". Maybe you should want more from your team? And the fact that you think we're better equipped for playoffs is funny, Dude.

I don't know about you but I actually enjoy watching the regular season and would much prefer we do well than do poorly.

As for getting worse....I don't think I see it. We lost Campbell, Mrazek, Spezza, Simmonds was push out of the regular line up, Mik is gone. None of those 5 players are big losses IMO. A full healthy season for JT with a proper healthy summer, and hopefully better health for Muzzin will both be huge.

Jarnkrok, Aube-Kubel and ZAR will provide more fiestiness. This team will hit more, and the bottom 6 will play a bit more like a classic bottom 6.

The only real question for skaters I have going into camp is which young guys will step up? Full time Sandin? Robertson? Holmberg?

Big question on everyone's mind is of course - how will the goalies fare? I have no concerns about the skaters.

Meh. We DEF. got worse in goal, I'd say. And our 3rd and 4th lines went from bad to..........still bad.