Prospect Info: 2022 Draft Prospects, Part II

[Guttersniped]

So what kinda guys are Montreal Seattle Arizona and Philly looking for? They all need a franchise center right? Would we need to win the lottery to be able to draft Slafkovsky or is there a chance him being a winger he drops to 5-7 range?

I still think this draft is and will be a major disappointment in comparison to the recent and next year, but this guy I really like. He's been red hot since the olympics, 5+2 in his last 10 games, 3+2 in his last 5 games. I still have huge reservations about the two defenders. Nemec looked terrible in the olympics, so my interest in him is at an all time low. He's an offensive dman with a lot of work on his complete came, slightly bigger but way worse Ty Smith at this point. With Jiricek I've only seen youtube highlights, so I have to go with Steven's evaluation with this one. I'd love to find some advanced stats on him, but I don't think the Czech league tracks those. His basic stats are terrible however. And I did have Seider going somewhere around #15-25 and thought it was a huge reach at the time, but at least Seider had incredible junior national numbers. I have a really hard time believing Jiricek becomes a top2 defender, which you'd expect with a top5 pick. With Nemec I'm even less confident. But they are prospects and most are bound to take huge jumps forward in the next few years, so we'll see what happens.

But team Slaf here, and then Gauthier, Kemell (he's also been great again recently), Lambert.. unless we want to take another C.

Nemec is listed now at 6’1” & 192 at 18.

Smith was listed at 5’10” & 176 at the draft.

Nemec might not be huge but 3” & 16 pounds is more than a slight difference.

And he’s way worse than Ty Smith now? They barely play defense in the WHL, compared to the European leagues.

And how are his basic stats terrible? And Seider’s were better?

I’m not sold on Nemec’s ceiling but some of these these are real nit-picky.

If you than questions about his defensive game, then say that. He’s a very smart player and there’s plenty to work with here though, even though Nemec isn’t on the top of want list.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I am just not a fan of drafting an offensive dman who has a butter soft of a shot from the point. It makes it very easy to cover when we’re in the offensive zone.

That reason alone is why I prefer Jiricek over his fellow countryman. That and Jiricek plays a style of hockey we desperately need and would be the perfect partner for L. Hughes.

Nemec is better defensively than he is offensively, in my opinion. But he's also terrific offensively. Like you, I prefer Jiricek because to me he's just rare -- huge, fast, physical, competitive and skilled. But right now? We would have to say Nemec is more advanced both offensively and defensively. The reason you pick Jiricek -- which is legitimate -- is because of potential. This is to say, if they both near their talent ceilings, what will we have?

With Nemec, I think we'll have one of the steadiest and best two way defensemen around -- a guy who can hit 50 points while playing great in his own zone, a 20+ minute all-situations guy who will be the first dude a coach wants off the bench whether you're leading or trailing by one goal late.

With Jiricek, it's a bit rarer -- a player who softer opposing forwards will avoid at all costs, who will punish with open ice hits while playing a physical, shut-down style of defense. Offensively, I think Nemec will accrue more assists but Jiricek's shot gives him 15-20 goal potential from the blueline.

But again, several teams will have Nemec over Jiricek right now because right now, he's simply better (and healthier) -- and this makes him easier to project.

 

[StevenToddIves]

While I understand the sentiment here, I feel if there's one thing players can improve in regards to their skillset, it's their shot. Jack Hughes, although he's a forward, is a good example of that. I don't think it would deter me from drafting him too much.

Also, unless I'm mistaken, Jiricek and Nemec aren't from the same country. I believe Kiricek is Czech and Nemec from Slovakia.

Their parents were "fellow countrymen" haha.

 

[My3Sons]

Comparisons are really, really tough if you're using the entire NHL, past and future. Every player is unique. Once in awhile you'll get lucky and find a player of the same position and style who match up statistically, like Chase Stillman and Ryan Callahan. But usually there are just glaring differences which makes it really tricky, so I try to avoid it in general.

The reason I get, uh... "in a tizzy" when people are just using Devils as comparisons, is not only is it a far smaller pool of available players to match up with the prospect, but people usually just use the comparison to push their pre-conceived notions and opinions. I'm not saying you do this -- you're one of my favorite posters on these boards -- but I'm sure you remember as well as I do when people on these threads actually made comparisons in recent draft years of Lucas Raymond to Mattias Tedenby, or K'Andre Miller to Eric Gelinas, or Chase Stillman to Stefan Matteau. Makes me want to pull my hair out, really, and I have just outstanding hair.

There are certainly concerns with Simon Nemec -- his shot is a non-factor, and though his initial decision-making is high-end, when things don't go as he initially planned he can be forced into mistakes. His positioning and choices of when to activate off the point need to be fine-tuned. But overall I'd say he's pretty polished, and for a defenseman who has produced so much offensively to be even better defensively at his age is really uncommon. If I had to compare him at the same age, I'd say "Roman Josi without the great shot" is a fair estimation. I don't see Nemec putting up Josi's absurdly awesome offensive numbers -- but I would say he's capable of 50+ point seasons at his peak. Defensively, I think Nemec is competitive and extremely effective in general. You probably also know I also hate highlight videos, but here's one:

I understand your point about comparisons being too limiting, but in a simplistic way they provide some additional context to round out your descriptions. For posters like me who generally rely on your work to follow along with prospects it's a way to draw distinctions. I recall one of your reports sounded very much like a Dawson Mercer style of player and when I brought that up you explained the differences in their play. Frankly, it was really helpful when you did that even if from your perspective it only tells a part of the story. As always, thanks for sharing your effort and thoughts with us. It really is a labor of love.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Nemec is listed now at 6’1” & 192 at 18.

Smith was listed at 5’10” & 176 at the draft.

Nemec might not be huge but 3” & 16 pounds is more than a slight difference.

And he’s way worse than Ty Smith now? They barely play defense in the WHL, compared to the European leagues.

And how are his basic stats terrible? And Seider’s were better?

I’m not sold on Nemec’s ceiling but some of these these are real nit-picky.

If you than questions about his defensive game, then say that. He’s a very smart player and there’s plenty to work with here though, even though Nemec isn’t on the top of want list.

I'd say my Devils wish list -- which is to say, if we don't win the lottery and have a "trade or keep Shane Wright" decision -- is this:

1 Slafkovsky
2 Jiricek
3 Nemec
4 Gauthier
5 Yurov/Nazar

I'm a huge fan of Savoie, Cooley and Kemell but I just feel their talents and styles are a bit redundant to the current Devils core. I don't want Lambert or Geekie -- too many questions about compete level for a pick so early.

 

[My3Sons]

That's not creepy at all.

 

[ninetyeight]

And how are his basic stats terrible? And Seider’s were better?

I was talking about Jiricek at that point and refering to Seider's junior national team stats. Nemec has great stats, I was pretty excited about him, before the olympics, where he had basically negative value. Bunch of turnovers and low iq plays and no production.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I understand your point about comparisons being too limiting, but in a simplistic way they provide some additional context to round out your descriptions. For posters like me who generally rely on your work to follow along with prospects it's a way to draw distinctions. I recall one of your reports sounded very much like a Dawson Mercer style of player and when I brought that up you explained the differences in their play. Frankly, it was really helpful when you did that even if from your perspective it only tells a part of the story. As always, thanks for sharing your effort and thoughts with us. It really is a labor of love.

Yeah, I'll always give a comparison a college try if you ask. Like I said, the hair pulling comes when someone looks at Lucas Raymond's home country and size measurements and compares them to Mattias Tedenby (yes, someone did this in 2020) without actually having watched Raymond play a game.

The better the player, the harder they are to compare. I mean, how would we compare Jack Hughes -- he's completely unique! But Cutter Gauthier gives a pretty nice comparison with Matt Tkachuk and with Joakim Kemell I don't think it's too unreasonable to compare him as a second-cousin to Alexander Holtz.

The player you're talking about I think is Danila Yurov, who is a very skilled player without elite abilities, but all of his tools play up due to a ridiculously high combination of hockey IQ and compete level. I think that's why you compared him to Mercer.

Lastly, I'd just like to say that sometimes our "labor of love" pays off. I mean, it's been a tough season for all of us, but when I get to watch Dawson Mercer -- a kid I wrote hundreds of pages lauding and watched tons of film on in his draft year -- shock the world by not only making the Devils but also growing into just a fantastic core piece for my team! Well, to me it's absolutely beautiful and makes it all worth it.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I was talking about Jiricek at that point and refering to Seider's junior national team stats. Nemec has great stats, I was pretty excited about him, before the olympics, where he had basically negative value. Bunch of turnovers and low iq plays and no production.

Like I said, I defer to Steve Kournianos who cautions against tearing your rankings apart for better or worse because of a singular tournament. I agree Nemec did not impress at the Olympics. However, I'm still taking him in my top 5:

1 Wright
2 Slafkovsky
3 Jiricek
4 Cooley
5 Nemec

I'm pretty comfortable with my top 5 right now. It's not exactly 2023-level, but that's an extremely talented group.

 

[My3Sons]

Yeah, I'll always give a comparison a college try if you ask. Like I said, the hair pulling comes when someone looks at Lucas Raymond's home country and size measurements and compares them to Mattias Tedenby (yes, someone did this in 2020) without actually having watched Raymond play a game.

The better the player, the harder they are to compare. I mean, how would we compare Jack Hughes -- he's completely unique! But Cutter Gauthier gives a pretty nice comparison with Matt Tkachuk and with Joakim Kemell I don't think it's too unreasonable to compare him as a second-cousin to Alexander Holtz.

The player you're talking about I think is Danila Yurov, who is a very skilled player without elite abilities, but all of his tools play up due to a ridiculously high combination of hockey IQ and compete level. I think that's why you compared him to Mercer.

Lastly, I'd just like to say that sometimes our "labor of love" pays off. I mean, it's been a tough season for all of us, but when I get to watch Dawson Mercer -- a kid I wrote hundreds of pages lauding and watched tons of film on in his draft year -- shock the world by not only making the Devils but also growing into just a fantastic core piece for my team! Well, to me it's absolutely beautiful and makes it all worth it.

I think it was Yurov. Again. I have a tough enough time keeping up with the Devils and can't invest much into watching video or prospects games for guys not even drafted yet. Reading about Yurov and Perevalov it was helpful to get the player stylistic comparison. Your point about the situation in Russia impacting this year's draftees is well taken. I wouldn't be surprised to see one or two of those players fall to NJ in the second round. If NJ came away from this draft with Gauthier and one of Yurov or Perevalov it sounds like that would be a great result.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I think it was Yurov. Again. I have a tough enough time keeping up with the Devils and can't invest much into watching video or prospects games for guys not even drafted yet. Reading about Yurov and Perevalov it was helpful to get the player stylistic comparison. Your point about the situation in Russia impacting this year's draftees is well taken. I wouldn't be surprised to see one or two of those players fall to NJ in the second round. If NJ came away from this draft with Gauthier and one of Yurov or Perevalov it sounds like that would be a great result.

Oooooh don't get me started on Perevalov again. I won't shut up, maybe ever. That kid is phenomenal. Doofuses are still ranking him in the low 20s because they can't be bothered to watch the MHL. That shot, those hands, that vision, the compete! Here's 4 minutes of your life you'll be glad you spent watching someone not enough people are talking about.

 

[My3Sons]

Oooooh don't get me started on Perevalov again. I won't shut up, maybe ever. That kid is phenomenal. Doofuses are still ranking him in the low 20s because they can't be bothered to watch the MHL. That shot, those hands, that vision, the compete! Here's 4 minutes of your life you'll be glad you spent watching someone not enough people are talking about.

Highlights are tricky but he looks like the best player on the ice in those

 

[Guttersniped]

After mocking Hockey Prospects w/ Jani Nyman at 26, I search him and look who’s a super fan:

Prospect Info: - 2022 Ives Mid-Season NHL Draft Rankings (1.0)

These are my initial rankings. They may diverge from the consensus, but I’ll be glad to answer any questions about who I have ranked where. These rankings are, of course, likely to change by the draft. As always, I do not include goalies in my skater rankings. It’s also probably important to...

hfboards.mandatory.com

Sure, fine.

You didn’t have him ahead of Kulich, Mesar, McGroaty, Kasper, Chesley, Gaucher etc though

And still weirdly high to me.

 

[StevenToddIves]

After mocking Hockey Prospects w/ Jani Nyman at 26, I search him and who’s a super fan:

View attachment 518217

Prospect Info: - 2022 Ives Mid-Season NHL Draft Rankings (1.0)

These are my initial rankings. They may diverge from the consensus, but I’ll be glad to answer any questions about who I have ranked where. These rankings are, of course, likely to change by the draft. As always, I do not include goalies in my skater rankings. It’s also probably important to...

hfboards.mandatory.com

Sure, fine.

You didn’t have him ahead of Kulich, Mesar, McGroaty, Kasper, Chesley, Gaucher etc though

And still weirdly high to me.

I really like Nyman, and I'll be writing him up soon since I'm working my way through the Finnish prospects. But if you're ranking him over Kasper and Mesar, I would like to smoke some of whatever you're smoking.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

I was talking about Jiricek at that point and refering to Seider's junior national team stats. Nemec has great stats, I was pretty excited about him, before the olympics, where he had basically negative value. Bunch of turnovers and low iq plays and no production.

This is so dumb. You were excited about him and no longer are based off of one tournament against the best mens players in the world outside of the NHL. Literally this is the best competition anyone in the draft class has faced and him and Slafkovsky were the only ones there.

Did he increase his stock? No. But it should’ve literally been impossible for him to lose stock playing at the Olympics.
Not being excited about him anymore because he struggled at the Olympic Games which was definitely a lot for a freshly turned 18 year old kid to take in is ridiculous. Pretty much any 17-18 year old in the world would be absolutely shitting themselves going into that and this was by far the best competition he had ever played.

Not trying to be dramatic but this might be the single dumbest thing I’ve read in one of these prospect threads.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Like I said, I defer to Steve Kournianos who cautions against tearing your rankings apart for better or worse because of a singular tournament. I agree Nemec did not impress at the Olympics. However, I'm still taking him in my top 5:

1 Wright
2 Slafkovsky
3 Jiricek
4 Cooley
5 Nemec

I'm pretty comfortable with my top 5 right now. It's not exactly 2023-level, but that's an extremely talented group.

It’s not just any singular tournament like the World Juniors or something either. Was literally the Olympic Games against the best mens players in the world outside of the NHL, easily the best competition Nemec, or any 2022 eligible prospect for that matter, has played against.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Just gonna say that I really really want the devils to get Slafkovsky to the point where I’m perfectly okay with them losing games to increase the chances of that, as long as the young players keep doing well.

He has also started producing lately. 5 points in his last 5 games if I’m not mistaken.

 

[Lou Bloom]

I'd say my Devils wish list -- which is to say, if we don't win the lottery and have a "trade or keep Shane Wright" decision -- is this:

1 Slafkovsky
2 Jiricek
3 Nemec
4 Gauthier
5 Yurov/Nazar

I'm a huge fan of Savoie, Cooley and Kemell but I just feel their talents and styles are a bit redundant to the current Devils core. I don't want Lambert or Geekie -- too many questions about compete level for a pick so early.

I think it's interesting you list Cooley as redundant because I think after the the first three names He's the player in the top 10 I'd consider the best pick for the Devils in terms of fit/talent. I think his high energy, two way game would be a very good fit either as a 3C behind Hughes/Hischier or as a Winger to play alongside them.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

I think it's interesting you list Cooley as redundant because I think after the the first three names He's the player in the top 10 I'd consider the best pick for the Devils in terms of fit/talent. I think his high energy, two way game would be a very good fit either as a 3C behind Hughes/Hischier or as a Winger to play alongside them.

Ideally we aren’t taking someone to play 3C with a top 5 pick in the draft.

 

[Lou Bloom]

Ideally we aren’t taking someone to play 3C with a top 5 pick in the draft.

Ignoring the fact I said he could be used as a 3C/W you do realize that between PP time and PK time a player can be a 3C on a depth chart and have tons of ice time and impact? Jordan Staal was the 3C during his time with the Penguins and he was 3rd in TOI among forwards only behind Crosby and malkin, Nuge when they played him at 3C was likewise only behind McDavid and Draisaitl in TOI. Those guys were getting more minutes on the ice than many top line wingers do by comparison. Not to mention his skillset would work perfectly fine on the wing if you decided to move him there, but his versatility in general can allow you to get more creative if you wanted to run 3 high end centers.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Ignoring the fact I said he could be used as a 3C/W you do realize that between PP time and PK time a player can be a 3C on a depth chart and have tons of ice time and impact? Jordan Staal was the 3C during his time with the Penguins and he was 3rd in TOI among forwards only behind Crosby and malkin, Nuge when they played him at 3C was likewise only behind McDavid and Draisaitl in TOI. Those guys were getting more minutes on the ice than many top line wingers do by comparison. Not to mention his skillset would work perfectly fine on the wing if you decided to move him there, but his versatility in general can allow you to get more creative if you wanted to run 3 high end centers.

You’re not wrong but I still think don’t think that’s what you want to do. Obviously on a perfect team sure but with the cap and everything you can only have so many stars and I think we would rather not have 3 of them as centers. If you’re running 3 high end centers like that it certainly cuts into their even strength ice time and you’re not getting as much out of them. Also RNH isn’t really a good example because Draisaitl hasn’t ever been a full time center and usually spends a lot of time on Mcdavis wing. Pretty sure RNH has spent some time on the wing as well when Draisaitl is at center. Basically they rarely play the 3 of them at center and when they do it definitely cuts down their 5v5 ice time.

We would also probably be hoping Cooley could be better than J. Staal and RNH if we took him in the top 5 even though that’s not a guarentee at all.

I understand what you’re saying though and don’t disagree that the versatility is valuable and gives us different options. Just pointing out that I don’t think we would want to take someone who projects as a C to potentially be our 3C that high in the draft especially when we could still really use high end players in other positions.

 

[StevenToddIves]

This is so dumb. You were excited about him and no longer are based off of one tournament against the best mens players in the world outside of the NHL. Literally this is the best competition anyone in the draft class has faced and him and Slafkovsky were the only ones there.

Did he increase his stock? No. But it should’ve literally been impossible for him to lose stock playing at the Olympics.
Not being excited about him anymore because he struggled at the Olympic Games which was definitely a lot for a freshly turned 18 year old kid to take in is ridiculous. Pretty much any 17-18 year old in the world would be absolutely shitting themselves going into that and this was by far the best competition he had ever played.

Not trying to be dramatic but this might be the single dumbest thing I’ve read in one of these prospect threads.

If this is the dumbest thing you read on the prospect threads here, I'm not sure you remember when people were trying to say that Kakko was better than Hughes. But I'm not getting down on @ninetyeight and neither should you because -- and I think we all realize this -- it's very tough to judge the prospects and has been for two years due to the pandemic.

Normally, we'd get to see Nemec play various tourneys against kids his age where we could assess him appropriately. Losing those opportunities, people naturally overreact to his spotty play in a tournament we should be lauding him for even making it into.

So, for me -- the very fact that Nemec was playing rose him in my rankings. Not so much as Slafkovsky, who dominated the tournament, but I think he's either #2 or #3 overall on most lists these days.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I think it's interesting you list Cooley as redundant because I think after the the first three names He's the player in the top 10 I'd consider the best pick for the Devils in terms of fit/talent. I think his high energy, two way game would be a very good fit either as a 3C behind Hughes/Hischier or as a Winger to play alongside them.

I love Cooley, and I think he's going to be a star in the NHL, but you get up to the draft podium early enough that he is still on the board, it means so are one of Slafkovsky/Jiricek/Nemec. So, the Devils are very unlikely to take him, and as such I'm removing him from the equation a bit. I can't see him getting out of the top 3, especially as much as so many of the top lottery teams covet centers. #4 is the latest I could see him fall.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Ignoring the fact I said he could be used as a 3C/W you do realize that between PP time and PK time a player can be a 3C on a depth chart and have tons of ice time and impact? Jordan Staal was the 3C during his time with the Penguins and he was 3rd in TOI among forwards only behind Crosby and malkin, Nuge when they played him at 3C was likewise only behind McDavid and Draisaitl in TOI. Those guys were getting more minutes on the ice than many top line wingers do by comparison. Not to mention his skillset would work perfectly fine on the wing if you decided to move him there, but his versatility in general can allow you to get more creative if you wanted to run 3 high end centers.

This also could be "The Mercer Role".

 

[Captain3rdLine]

If this is the dumbest thing you read on the prospect threads here, I'm not sure you remember when people were trying to say that Kakko was better than Hughes. But I'm not getting down on @ninetyeight and neither should you because -- and I think we all realize this -- it's very tough to judge the prospects and has been for two years due to the pandemic.

Normally, we'd get to see Nemec play various tourneys against kids his age where we could assess him appropriately. Losing those opportunities, people naturally overreact to his spotty play in a tournament we should be lauding him for even making it into.

So, for me -- the very fact that Nemec was playing rose him in my rankings. Not so much as Slafkovsky, who dominated the tournament, but I think he's either #2 or #3 overall on most lists these days.

I don’t think it’s dumb for people to have different views of prospects and Kappo Kakko was a very exciting prospect in his own right. I don’t think it’s dumb for someone to not like Nemec whether I agree with them or not and I get that everyone sees prospects differently and it’s hard to judge.

It’s just someone liking a prospect and then no longer liking him after seeing him in a small number of games in by far the hardest competition he or any of his peers had ever played in against much older and more experienced players.