Prospect Info: 2022 Draft Prospects, Part II

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StevenToddIves

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I don’t think it’s dumb for people to have different views of prospects and Kappo Kakko was a very exciting prospect in his own right. I don’t think it’s dumb for someone to not like Nemec whether I agree with them or not and I get that everyone sees prospects differently and it’s hard to judge.

It’s just someone liking a prospect and then no longer liking him after seeing him in a small number of games in by far the hardest competition he or any of his peers had ever played in against much older and more experienced players.
It wasn't the Kakko thing I was putting down -- it was the people trying to convince us that Hughes was not much of a prospect and inventing reasons why. But I would say that Hughes/Kakko might have been the biggest 1/2 gap since McDavid/Anyone and it was weird to me how, when I stated this, certain people just went completely insane. I couldn't begin to fathom some of there negativity towards Hughes.

I do agree with you that Nemec still deserves as much draft-day esteem as before the Olympics and have specifically, and often, said as much.
 

ninetyeight

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This is so dumb. You were excited about him and no longer are based off of one tournament against the best mens players in the world outside of the NHL.

Not trying to be dramatic but this might be the single dumbest thing I’ve read in one of these prospect threads.
Thanks, you seem nice. I don't know what to tell you. Before the tournament, I had never seen him play I only saw he had good stats, which I'm sure most will agree is not the best way to judge players. Then when I actually see him play, that's what I going to base my evaluation of. It's the same reason I'm more high on Lambert even though he has bad stats.

I don't know how much you actually follow and watch these prospects, but if my comment is the stupidest thing you've read then I'm sorry maybe I should stop posting here.
 

StevenToddIves

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Thanks, you seem nice. I don't know what to tell you. Before the tournament, I had never seen him play I only saw he had good stats, which I'm sure most will agree is not the best way to judge players. Then when I actually see him play, that's what I going to base my evaluation of. It's the same reason I'm more high on Lambert even though he has bad stats.

I don't know how much you actually follow and watch these prospects, but if my comment is the stupidest thing you've read then I'm sorry maybe I should stop posting here.
Keep posting here. It was just not the best choice of words when disagreeing with you. You're both great posters on these boards and we need all the talent we can get.
 

Rusty7550

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About Nemec and his play at the Olympics. Im from Slovakia so I saw him many times. At the olympics, he played only first 2 games (rest of the tournament, he was 7th defenseman so he didn't play or played only like 2 min.). In his first game vs Finland, he didn't play well but we have to say that whole Slovak team was awful. SVK lose 2-6 to Finland. There was a problem with Covid in Slovak team and before the tournament these guys had only like 2 trainings together and it was pretty obvious in first game that chemistry wasn't there. Especially between D pairings. But in his second game vs Sweden, he was probably our best defender. He was everywhere and had primary assist on only Slovak goal. Then coaches used more experienced defenders for rest of the tournament so his IT went down but still ... it was definitely great experience for him. Dahlin was also part of Swedish Olympics team in his DY and also didn't play. Its not easy to play at tournament like that when you are 17 yo defenseman.
 

StevenToddIves

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2022 Draft Profile:

LW/C Aleksanteri Kaskimaki, HIFK U20, Finnish Jr.

One viewing of one shift by Alex Kaskimaki is enough to realize that the draft consensus is easily confused. You notice him right away, he's a 6'0-180 forward with elite skating ability which is among the best in the entire 2022 class. He possesses a great set of hands and thus the rare ability to make moves with the puck at high speeds, adding a degree of shiftiness and deception to his lightning-fast game. He shoots the puck very well and is normally the go-to scorer on his line, one of the reasons attributable to his gaudy numbers in Finland Juniors, with 19 goals and 39 points in just 29 games at the writing of this. Then, why is Kaskimaki's consensus ranking generally in the late 2nd/early 3rd round? Though players are often overlooked in less-scouted leagues like the DEL or the MHL, this is rarely the case in Scandinavia. Though players are routinely knocked down rankings for the two most common areas of skating and size, Kaskimaki has good size and skating is his foremost strength. The mnre you watch Kaskimaki, the more you realize this is a player who, while certainly needing work, represents a potential draft-day steal if he falls to his general draft ranking.

Kaskimaki is an absolutely explosive skater in every sense who has been the best skater on the ice in every viewing of him I've had this year. He features two more plus tools, in his hands and his shooting, though neither of these abilities is on par with with his jets. This trio of skills alone give him at least the ability to be a terrific bottom 6 NHL-er. I think the problem is there are several areas of necessary improvement in his game which cloud his ability to be a top 6 forward despite his impressive scoring totals thus far.

Kaskimaki is an okay passer, but he's more of a functional playmaker than one of high vision or creativity. This is to say, he'll hit the open man if he's looking to pass, but he's generally a shoot first or beat-the-defender-first weapon by choice. Passing is if he cannot do it himself. So, while this is not an area of weakness for Kaskimaki, it's also not a particular strength. He's a checkers-passer not a chess-passer, though he's a solid checkers player. Kaskimaki is also a player with much to work on defensively -- I find his IQ and hustle both play better in the offensive zone, and sometimes both he and his whole line can get caved in the defensive zone against better competition. I'd say Kaskimaki is a player of above-average to average awareness offensively, but defensively that slips a bit. Still, his speed factors into why his coaches use him as a regular on the PK, and he's actually pretty good in that role. Where I think the overall lack of his awareness and anticipation at a high level affects Kaskimaki is that he probably projects more to the wing at the NHL level than to center.

Still, this is a player of much potential, and even if his development stalls on several levels his skating and puckhandling alone should see him be able to carve out a 4th line role in the NHL. You always have to be aware of Kaskimaki on the ice. But if Kaskimaki's development takes a jump, he's a potential steal. If he can learn to better anticipate and position himself defensively, his speed gives him potential as a really high-end defender. And if his overall game improves in the coming years, this is certainly a player with 2nd line scoring upside. As such, I feel Kaskimaki's general ranking is a bit too low, and I would not be surprised or disappointed if he were taken very early in the 2nd round of the 2022 NHL Draft.
 

StevenToddIves

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In other news, the Devils loss yesterday afternoon was hurtful to our hearts, but really helped in terms of draft lottery positioning. A win would have jumped the Devils to the #7 slot, but the regulation loss puts them back in the #4 hole. Here's a mini-mock:

1 MTL C Wright
2 SEA LW Slafkovsky
3 ARI C Cooley
4 NJ RD Jiricek
5 OTT C Geekie
6 PHI RD Nemec
7 BUF C Savoie
8 CLB RW Kemell
9 DET RW Nazar
10 NYI LW Gauthier
 

Captain3rdLine

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Thanks, you seem nice. I don't know what to tell you. Before the tournament, I had never seen him play I only saw he had good stats, which I'm sure most will agree is not the best way to judge players. Then when I actually see him play, that's what I going to base my evaluation of. It's the same reason I'm more high on Lambert even though he has bad stats.

I don't know how much you actually follow and watch these prospects, but if my comment is the stupidest thing you've read then I'm sorry maybe I should stop posting here.
Sorry about that, I got a little too riled up and aggressive there. I do that from time to time.
The more people posting on here and sharing their opinions the better.
I understand a little better if you’d never seen him before and this was your first viewing. You heard good things about him and saw good numbers and then he didn’t look great when you saw him at the Olympics and that kind of soured your view.
I get that but I still don’t think the Olympics is a fair competition to judge him off of. Some aspects of his game such as skating or shooting technique you can probably get a bit of a read on but I think it’s a little unfair to judge him on other stuff such as IQ in that competition. He’d never played against comp close to that good and the pace of play was faster and he had less time and space to make plays than he was used to. Also was likely nervous and making a jump to a higher level of play often takes some adjustment especially for someone as young as him. Slafkovsky excelled with that jump and almost seemed to thrive more with the jump but I would expect most players there age would struggle with that jump at least for a while.

I’d recommend watching his 2 world junior games if you want to see him against kids closer to his age even though even that is mostly prospects that are drafted 18 and 19 year olds. He was very good in those 2 games IMO and I think most people agree. Is an extremely small sample size obviously but you’ll see why some people are so excited about him.
 
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Captain3rdLine

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In other news, the Devils loss yesterday afternoon was hurtful to our hearts, but really helped in terms of draft lottery positioning. A win would have jumped the Devils to the #7 slot, but the regulation loss puts them back in the #4 hole. Here's a mini-mock:

1 MTL C Wright
2 SEA LW Slafkovsky
3 ARI C Cooley
4 NJ RD Jiricek
5 OTT C Geekie
6 PHI RD Nemec
7 BUF C Savoie
8 CLB RW Kemell
9 DET RW Nazar
10 NYI LW Gauthier
Also gives us better lottery odds. We’d basically have a 20% chance of picking top 2 as well as a 77% chance of picking top 5. Most likely pick would be 5th(43.6%). My worry is that we may pretty much have to win the lottery and 2nd pick to get Slafkovsky. At most I can’t imagine him getting past 4th. I could see maybe Cooley and Nemec getting taken before him if someone likes them more.
 
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StevenToddIves

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Also gives us better lottery odds. We’d basically have a 20% chance of picking top 2 as well as a 77% chance of picking top 5. Most likely pick would be 5th(43.6%). My worry is that we may pretty much have to win the lottery and 2nd pick to get Slafkovsky. At most I can’t imagine him getting past 4th. I could see maybe Cooley and Nemec getting taken before him if someone likes them more.
Yeah, it's hard to predict that Seattle pick because they need so much, but I can't see Ron Francis taking a D-man so early since he comes from a Carolina organization which subscribes to a philosophy of "forwards early, defense and goaltending later" at the draft. But I really can't see Slafkovsky getting past the #3 pick, he's just such a rare combination of size, skill and intangibles.

That being said, I'm extremely happy with the Devils getting Jiricek or Nemec, as well. A top 4 pick is an absolute guarantee of getting one of those three players, since Shane Wright is an extremely likely top pick. A top 5 pick is I guess what we could call a "virtual guarantee", because it's very tough to see Logan Cooley and his two-way 1C upside dropping out of that top 4. A top 6 pick is where the finger crossing starts and, if the Devils are at #7 or #8, it's a good bet they're all gone... although as I've said at length, I'd also be very happy with getting Cutter Gauthier on draft day.
 
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Guttersniped

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Ignoring the fact I said he could be used as a 3C/W you do realize that between PP time and PK time a player can be a 3C on a depth chart and have tons of ice time and impact? Jordan Staal was the 3C during his time with the Penguins and he was 3rd in TOI among forwards only behind Crosby and malkin, Nuge when they played him at 3C was likewise only behind McDavid and Draisaitl in TOI. Those guys were getting more minutes on the ice than many top line wingers do by comparison. Not to mention his skillset would work perfectly fine on the wing if you decided to move him there, but his versatility in general can allow you to get more creative if you wanted to run 3 high end centers.
Copley’s more of an offense guy, I don’t see the two-way game there. He’s smallish and his “high energy” comes and goes. Don’t see him in a 3C role. (Also, and I’m probably wrong, but I like Nazar more.)

You’re right that a C/W is more valuable to us then people seem to think. And more valuable in general. It’s why I’m not interested in Kemell, not after drafting Holtz at 7th.

It’s not just “wingers for Jack & Nico”, doesn’t mean we don’t want play drivers or a C/W.
 

Hisch13r

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Copley’s more of an offense guy, I don’t see the two-way game there. He’s smallish and his “high energy” comes and goes. Don’t see him in a 3C role. (Also, and I’m probably wrong, but I like Nazar more.)

You’re right that a C/W is more valuable to us then people seem to think. And more valuable in general. It’s why I’m not interested in Kemell, not after drafting Holtz at 7th.

It’s not just “wingers for Jack & Nico”, doesn’t mean we don’t want play drivers or a C/W.

I’d much rather Lambert than Kemell
 

Guttersniped

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Also gives us better lottery odds. We’d basically have a 20% chance of picking top 2 as well as a 77% chance of picking top 5. Most likely pick would be 5th(43.6%). My worry is that we may pretty much have to win the lottery and 2nd pick to get Slafkovsky. At most I can’t imagine him getting past 4th. I could see maybe Cooley and Nemec getting taken before him if someone likes them more.
The NHL haven’t released the odds for the 2022 yet, they are likely to fiddle with them.

The bottom teams are bunched up, any winning streak and we’ll move up a bit again. Our home record is 14-14-3 vs our away record of 8-21-2.
So homesteads might knock us up.

We have some tougher games coming right up though. Games with the Sabres, Sens, and the two home games with Detroit are, uh, big (?) games for both teams.

It’s really too tough to predict, several teams are bunched together and Detroit is dropping like an rock.
 

Captain3rdLine

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The NHL haven’t released the odds for the 2022 yet, they are likely to fiddle with them.

The bottom teams are bunched up, any winning streak and we’ll move up a bit again. Our home record is 14-14-3 vs our away record of 8-21-2.
So homesteads might knock us up.

We have some tougher games coming right up though. Games with the Sabres, Sens, and the two home games with Detroit are, uh, big (?) games for both teams.

It’s really too tough to predict, several teams are bunched together and Detroit is dropping like an rock.
Ya I don’t think the odds will change that much though. Detroit is the furthest team away that I think we could catch barring any crazy finishes but even they are still 8 points ahead. Only 40 points up for grabs. Basically for that to happen something like the devils playing as a .500 team and Detroit playing as a .250 team would have to happen so I don’t think it’s that likely but it is possible if the Devils finish strong and Detroit doesn’t or Detroit goes on a big losing streak.

But even if say Detroit at at .350 which is about what the last place team in the league is at. The Devils would have to finish as a .550 team in the last 20 games to be tied with them at the end of the season. The team in 10th last in SJS isn’t reasonably catchable. 11 points ahead with a game in hand.
 
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SJinNewJersey

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In other news, the Devils loss yesterday afternoon was hurtful to our hearts, but really helped in terms of draft lottery positioning. A win would have jumped the Devils to the #7 slot, but the regulation loss puts them back in the #4 hole. Here's a mini-mock:

1 MTL C Wright
2 SEA LW Slafkovsky
3 ARI C Cooley
4 NJ RD Jiricek
5 OTT C Geekie
6 PHI RD Nemec
7 BUF C Savoie
8 CLB RW Kemell
9 DET RW Nazar
10 NYI LW Gauthier
Got to keep tank commander Gillies around for just another 20 games.
 
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StevenToddIves

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I’d much rather Lambert than Kemell
Lambert hasn't done much to justify being a top 10 pick, much less top 5. Right now -- as aware as I am that his upside might only trail Wright and Slafkovsky among 2022 forwards -- I'm likely ranking him in the #12-#15 overall range. His compete level is just so inconsistent -- one game he's willing to engage physically and play defense, the next game he's soft and lazy on the back check. It's also important to note that he's very likely a RW and not a center as he's often listed -- his game just suffers with the added responsibility of being up the middle. With the Devils extraordinarily deep with young RWs with Mercer and Holtz, I'd have to say that position would have to get less priority than C or LW, as well. When we add in the fact that Lambert is largely a perimeter forward and the Devils needing forwards who could work effectively in the interior, it just doesn't make sense to me.

Though there is nothing to insinuate Lambert is not a good kid, the fact that he keeps switching teams has to be a bit of a concern. He couldn't have liked being outshined by Kemell's far superior play with the Pelicans, which may have been at least partially his reasoning in leaving that team to go to a far weaker one.

If the Devils got hot and finished with a draft pick in the #9-#10 range, I could see considering Lambert simply on the basis of his enormous upside. But right now the Devils are at #4 and Lambert should not be so much as a vague consideration. There's really no way I could justify taking a perimeter winger at an already-deep position with potential franchise-caliber RDs available like Jiricek and Nemec. Even if those two were gone and you're considering a forward, I think taking Lambert over a more competitive, interior player with more pure goal-scoring ability like a Gauthier or Nazar would be a decision lacking vision.

I of course realize that all of my arguments would be moot if Lambert were clearly -- or even slightly -- the elusive "best available player" in this spot. But he's just not. He's the great skater and puck handler and play-maker, sure -- but right now Nazar and Gauthier and Cooley and Savoie and Kemell and Yurov are all clearly superior players on a game-to-game basis. Will Lambert be great in four or five years? I sure hope so, and it's a possibility, for certain. But it's not a chance I'm willing to take, when there are other players who have comparable upsides with better all-around games and are a better fit for NJ's organizational needs.
 

StevenToddIves

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Lambert is still a mystery to me, but I might agree there. I don’t want Lambert where we’re likely picking though.
I'm very high on Kemell, but you could literally use Alexander Holtz as a reasonable comparison if someone asked you for one. Stocking up on sniping RWs with very-good-but-not-great all-around games at the expense of multiple other needs does not strike me as the best strategy to build a cup winner. I'd much rather Gauthier or Nazar or Yurov if the Devils were picking with Slafkovsky and the RDs off the board.

Lambert to me, as explained above, has done little to justify being picked in the top 10. If the Devils get hot and wind up with a pick in the #9-#11 range, I'd be willing to discuss him. As it stands, I agree with you wholeheartedly that taking Lambert top 5 over some of the players who will be available in the top 5 would represent an absolutely cataclysmic mistake.
 

Buck Dancer

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Just a heads up for everyone that the CHL prospects game is being held tomorrow @ 20h00pm on TSN (in Canada) and will possibly be aired on the NHL network as well.
 
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StevenToddIves

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Just a heads up for everyone that the CHL prospects game is being held tomorrow @ 20h00pm on Sportsnet (in Canada) and will possibly be aired on the NHL network as well.
It's worth watching to gauge the players' skill sets, but I'd also caution against putting too much stock in the results of a game which essentially meaningless. The CHL playoffs are normally an even better place to watch these kids play.
 
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Buck Dancer

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It's worth watching to gauge the players' skill sets, but I'd also caution against putting too much stock in the results of a game which essentially meaningless. The CHL playoffs are normally an even better place to watch these kids play.
Oh yeah, for sure but it's also a game where all the eligible draftees will get to showcase their talents against one another.

I put zero stock in that game but it's still a cool thing to watch when there's no Devils game, the sweet sixteen is a day away and there's really nothing else on TV lol.
 
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Brodeur

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Craig Button's updated ranking (top 96): Craig's List: Players to watch at the CHL/NHL Top Prospects Game - TSN.ca

His top 10:

1 Shane Wright Kingston (OHL)
2 Logan Cooley USA U-18 (USHL)
3 Juraj Slafkovsky TPS (SM Liiga Jr.)
4 Simon Nemec Nitra (SVK)
5 Joakim Kemell JYP (SM Liiga)
6 Cutter Gauthier USA U-18 (USHL)
7 Pavel Mintyukov Saginaw (OHL)
8 David Jiricek Plzen (CZE)
9 Jimmy Snuggerud USA U-18 (USHL)
10 Jonathan Lakkerimaki Djurgardens (SWE J-20)
 

StevenToddIves

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Guttersniped

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I actually love Button. Snuggerud at #9 is entertainment to last me all through the month. But it's nice to see everyone else come around to my way of thinking on the super-duper-awesome Cutter Gauthier.
Snuggerud ahead of Nazar is sick and wrong.

Mintyukov is my LHD (just for rooting purposes, please no wagering) so I’m curious if has this big a leap beyond Button-reality. He is Russian but in the CHL, so that’s a twist.

I think Korchinski and Pickering have a lot juice too, more than a lot of the forwards. (I’m voting Minty for now though.)

Classic WTF Button twists:
Ivan Miroshnichenko has Hodgkin’s Disease and Button still has him at #13.

Danny Zhilkin C Guelph (OHL) is at #28, which would certainly be a, uh, bold decision. Jordan Gustafson C Seattle (WHL) seems goofy high at #31, not sure what that’s about. Hunter Haight C (OHL) at #38 seems nutty high too, he seems like a future AHL tweener.

I don’t always get why Button gets into the guys like these. These are the blandest, not great upside but also questionable floor, types and these are many of the most unique choices Button has made outside the consensus. (And dropped more interesting prospects down in the process.)

Tyler Brennen G (WHL) at #36 also seems high, it sounds like people are getting less sure about him but who knows where goalies are at. (Not me for instance.)

I believe these are the only other goalies on the list (it annoyingly doesn’t label position here):
72 Topias Leinonen G JYP (SM Liiga Jr.)
96 Ivan Zhigalov G Sherbrooke (QMJHL)
 
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