Prospect Info: 2022 Draft Prospects, Part II

[StevenToddIves]

2022 Draft Profile:

LW Alexander Suzdalev, HV71 J20 Sweden Jr.
Suzdalev is a wild card for the 2022 draft. One one hand, he's a 6'1-175 winger who combines good skating with an extremely impressive offensive tool kit. He's certainly gotten a lot of attention with his 51 points in 45 games thus far this year in the Swedish J20. Many of his goals are of the dazzling, highlight-reel variety, including a Michigan goal and a few tricky scores from seemingly impossible angles and situations. This is a kid with elite hands who can create something out of nothing. But as with any statement which begins "on one hand" there's another hand, and that other hand makes him a high-risk pick for the early rounds, but a potential high-reward player for the later ones.

Suzdalev has dual citizenship in Sweden and Russia, so the 2022 politically-fueled version of the "Russian Factor" may not lower his draft position too much like many prospects out of his home country. Though Suzdalev has chosen to play for Russia in tournament play, he currently lives in Sweden and is likely to remain there for the duration of the current conflict. One viewing of him is all one needs to see there is obvious top 6 potential in this player. His hands are magic -- he's fluid with the puck as if its an extension of his body, and can use this high-end skill to manipulate and beat opponents. He's crafty and elusive, able to make lightning-fast dekes in tight to simultaneously fool defenders and goaltenders. He's also a good skater, able to reach high speeds in a few strides, while having a nice level of agility and dexterity. Combined with his hands this makes him one of the most dangerous offensive players in the J20.

Suzdalev is also a very adept passer and dangerous shooter. He will shoot from anywhere... literally anywhere. He's scored goals this year from behind the goal line or parallel with it. He's a flashy player, and he's very dangerous in the offensive zone. But, there's a "but" here. Without getting too negative, it's safe to say this is a player who is well below acceptable levels when it comes to defensive play and consistency of compete level. Suzdalev can vanish for long stretches of a game at a time almost as if semi-disinterested in the battle-aspect of the sport of hockey. He's usually the last guy back on the back check and the danger-levels of his playmaking seem to have no relation whatsoever to what is showing on the scoreboard. Though the hope would be that these are all aspects of a player's game which can be improved through coaching and development, Suzdalev can be very frustrating to watch even when you have no rooting interest in the game. I literally spoke to my computer screen on one viewing: "Dude, I'm literally watching this game because of you, can you at least show a little effort here?"

As such, my overall impression of Suzdalev is that he's an early-round risk who gains in value with each passing round of the draft. Someone might take him in the second round due to his obvious skill and draft-eligible season high production. But they also might pass on him because, right now, he's a bit of a coaches nightmare. If he falls to the 5th-7th rounds -- well, that's where I might take the chance, because Suzdalev's fully stocked tool kit makes him a top 6 caliber steal so late in the draft.

 

[Blackjack]

2022 Draft Profile:

LW Alexander Suzdalev, HV71 J20 Sweden Jr.
Suzdalev is a wild card for the 2022 draft. One one hand, he's a 6'1-175 winger who combines good skating with an extremely impressive offensive tool kit. He's certainly gotten a lot of attention with his 51 points in 45 games thus far this year in the Swedish J20. Many of his goals are of the dazzling, highlight-reel variety, including a Michigan goal and a few tricky scores from seemingly impossible angles and situations. This is a kid with elite hands who can create something out of nothing. But as with any statement which begins "on one hand" there's another hand, and that other hand makes him a high-risk pick for the early rounds, but a potential high-reward player for the later ones.

Suzdalev has dual citizenship in Sweden and Russia, so the 2022 politically-fueled version of the "Russian Factor" may not lower his draft position too much like many prospects out of his home country. Though Suzdalev has chosen to play for Russia in tournament play, he currently lives in Sweden and is likely to remain there for the duration of the current conflict. One viewing of him is all one needs to see there is obvious top 6 potential in this player. His hands are magic -- he's fluid with the puck as if its an extension of his body, and can use this high-end skill to manipulate and beat opponents. He's crafty and elusive, able to make lightning-fast dekes in tight to simultaneously fool defenders and goaltenders. He's also a good skater, able to reach high speeds in a few strides, while having a nice level of agility and dexterity. Combined with his hands this makes him one of the most dangerous offensive players in the J20.

Suzdalev is also a very adept passer and dangerous shooter. He will shoot from anywhere... literally anywhere. He's scored goals this year from behind the goal line or parallel with it. He's a flashy player, and he's very dangerous in the offensive zone. But, there's a "but" here. Without getting too negative, it's safe to say this is a player who is well below acceptable levels when it comes to defensive play and consistency of compete level. Suzdalev can vanish for long stretches of a game at a time almost as if semi-disinterested in the battle-aspect of the sport of hockey. He's usually the last guy back on the back check and the danger-levels of his playmaking seem to have no relation whatsoever to what is showing on the scoreboard. Though the hope would be that these are all aspects of a player's game which can be improved through coaching and development, Suzdalev can be very frustrating to watch even when you have no rooting interest in the game. I literally spoke to my computer screen on one viewing: "Dude, I'm literally watching this game because of you, can you at least show a little effort here?"

As such, my overall impression of Suzdalev is that he's an early-round risk who gains in value with each passing round of the draft. Someone might take him in the second round due to his obvious skill and draft-eligible season high production. But they also might pass on him because, right now, he's a bit of a coaches nightmare. If he falls to the 5th-7th rounds -- well, that's where I might take the chance, because Suzdalev's fully stocked tool kit makes him a top 6 caliber steal so late in the draft.

I'd be concerned that those issued could keep him from getting sufficient playing time on the senior team over the next season or two. the fact that he hasn't gotten a single game upstairs yet is a little unnerving.

Is he eligible for the CHL import draft? I wonder if a team could tell him that they'll draft him a little earlier if he'll commit to coming to the CHL.

 

[StevenToddIves]

If we decide to go with Jiricek or Nemec, one would think it makes it likely that Damon Severson becomes expandable this summer or at next years deadline, if we're not contending for a playoff spot, no?

Personnaly, I definitely think it does and with the assets we'd be getting back, we can fix certain issues up front. It's almost like a two for one pick if we decide to go with one of the Slovaks.

The Devils have huge organizational needs at RD right now which go well beyond what is covetable. Years of ignoring the position on draft day have really hurt the team, and passing up on players in the late rounds of recent drafts like Viktor Persson and Jack Bar in favor of non-prospects like Baumgartner have exacerbated this.

As it stands, the Devils have 3 RD on the roster -- Hamilton, Severson and Subban. While Hamilton is locked up for many years, Subban is a UFA this year and Severson next year. In the prospect pool, the Devils also have just 3 RD -- Walsh, McCarthy and Hurtig. While Walsh is as NHL-ready as he'll get, he's a good-but-not-great offensive defenseman who is below average defensively. Devils fans have seen this story before, struggling through Will Butcher for several seasons, only to finally unload Butcher and have Smith regress to such levels of play this season. Case McCarthy is the best Devils RD prospect, but his upside is bottom 4, stay-at-home and he's at least two more seasons away. As for Hurtig -- well, we can't say for sure he's a bona fide prospect yet -- not really a standout player in the Swedish J20 yet despite being 6'6 and one of the oldest players in the league. You hope he takes a jump in his development over the next few years, but Hurtig is ultimately a finger-crosser.

So, fair to say RD is the biggest area of concern for the Devils in the 2022 draft. This does not necessarily mean the Devils must address this in the 1st round -- because if Jiricek and Nemec are gone when the Devils pick, the only surefire 1st-round option is Ryan Chesley, who is not a top 10 pick where the Devils will likely be drafting. But the Devils have to take a couple players at this position somewhere in the draft and I feel it's a likely scenario.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I'd be concerned that those issued could keep him from getting sufficient playing time on the senior team over the next season or two. the fact that he hasn't gotten a single game upstairs yet is a little unnerving.

Is he eligible for the CHL import draft? I wonder if a team could tell him that they'll draft him a little earlier if he'll commit to coming to the CHL.

Yes, there are certainly concerns which mitigate the obvious talent in Suzdalev. But I would still draft him in the later rounds. I just couldn't take him in the 2nd or even 3rd round right now, because I'd rather take a player with slightly less talent but a higher compete level at those spots.

 

[StevenToddIves]

2022 Draft Profile:

C/LW Ludwig Persson, Frolunda J20 Sweden Jr.
Persson has recently gained some helium in the draft community due to an outstanding set of wheels and some gaudy numbers in Swedish juniors. His line of 24-35-59 in just 39 J20 contests alludes to palpable offensive talent, but his calling card is his skating, which should see him with a regular shift on an NHL bottom 6 even if his ancillary offensive skills never develop to a point where he scores enough for a second-line role.

Ludwig Persson is a borderline-elite skater who excels in top speeds, acceleration, balance and dexterity. He plays with a very good compete level and pretty good awareness, a combination which almost has him playing at a different speed than his J20 competition. He's just zipping around everywhere and making the opposition's heads spin. He's not a small player, at 5'11-180, and it's not impossible to envision his skating improving even more when he develops better core strength. He's heady and responsible in all three zones, and as such Persson is a very likable player whom it is easy to root for.

The question to ask at this point is: then why isn't Persson being mentioned as a possible first round pick? The answer is not really a criticism of Persson -- who is an excellent player who gives consistent effort -- but more along the lines of a revelation that none of his ancillary offensive abilities really pop. Persson is a pretty good passer, puck handler and shooter without standing out in any respect. He's a high effort defender but loses his positioning under duress and can be beaten one-on-one. Actually, "under duress" is where many of Persson's problems begin and end because he's one of those scorers who is terrific in space but can cough up pucks and make mental errors under pressure. When we watch Persson on the power play, he looks like a tremendous prospect. When we watch him 5x5 against good defenders, that's when we ask a litany of questions.

Overall, I'd certainly draft Persson on the basis of his speed and versatility. He excels in all special teams and his skating is a difference maker which should see him make the pros, even if it's in more of a Hagelin-type "go out there and outskate them and forecheck like hell" role. If his offensive tool-kit develops, there's some upside here, but I wouldn't get too drunk looking at his gaudy J20 stats. I see Persson as a safe pick who I'm looking at anywhere from the late 2nd to late 3rd round. Due to the impressive skating and numbers, he probably won't slip into the 4th.

 

[StevenToddIves]

2022 Draft Profile:

LW/RW Joel Jonsson, Mora J20 Sweden Jr.
A lot of people read my draft profiles strictly to learn about potential draft-day sleepers who are not talked about nearly enough. Well, Joel Jonsson is one, and as such he's one of my favorite players for the late rounds of the 2022 entry draft. He is mostly ignored for two reasons: his size measurements of 5'9-150 and a lack of high-end straightaway speed. Well, in there next few paragraphs I'm hopefully going to convince you that this is a player with very real NHL top 6 upside due to a combination of sublime skill with off-the-charts intangibles.

I have often said that size is not crucial when judging NHL prospects. It can be when a larger player plays big or a smaller player plays small, but this is not the case with Johnsson. His courage is very high, and he's not afraid to take the puck to the interior. As a matter of fact, he's not afraid to take the puck anywhere. Joel Jonsson is one of those players who always wants the puck on his stick and is very comfortable once it is there. He has outstanding hands and an absurdly high hockey IQ and he knows it. Johnsson has the rare ability to manipulate defenders into making mistakes using a litany of slick moves and the foresight to judge what a defender will do if he leads them in a certain direction, when all along his plan was to open the precise lane the defender just gave him. Johnsson is a devastatingly good passer, and like all devastatingly good puck handler/playmakers, he seems to have more space than other players whenever he has the puck. This is not luck, it's just a high level of being able to create space. He's the guy all of his teammates wants to quarterback every offensive zone situation, and Jonsson does this like a conductor running a philharmonic.

I have also often said that skating acuity is not simply about top speeds. Jonsson is barely above average in this respect, but I'd still call him an excellent skater due to his phenomenal edges and maneuverability with the puck. The combination of his elite hands and elite edges have him literally faking opposing defenders off-balance, sometimes multiple times in the same game. Then when we add in his elite hockey IQ and ability to create lanes and then hit them with remarkable passing acumen, we have a player with top 6 scoring upside in the NHL despite obvious physical limitations. One can ask no more of a player with Joel Jonsson's natural-born abilities than to be as good as Joel Jonsson has been, and this speaks volumes to his high character and intelligence.

Clearly, this is a young player who needs the weight room and several years of development. With improved core strength we could see concurrent improvements in areas of need like straightaway speed and shooting power. However, Jonsson's shot is still "as good as it can be", due to a quick release and excellent accuracy. He's Mora's top shootout option, though naturally that has more to do with his cool under pressure and remarkable set of mitts. Ultimately, I see a player with a potentially high development curve, especially if he adds muscle to his frame. He's actually a kid who loves to hit and get his hands dirty, and although he's quite strong for his size he can obviously still be outmuscled because he's a guy fully willing to go toe-to-toe with a 6'2-200 defender.

Joel Jonsson is, quite simply, the most overlooked forward out of Sweden for the 2022 draft. He has palpable top 6 upside and his character and high IQ -- combined with a silky set of hands -- give him a higher floor than most 5'9-150 offensive wingers. He's a player who loves the puck on his stick and always seems to know exactly what to do with it. He will probably be available from the 4th round to the 6th for purely superficial reasons, and he'd be an absolute steal if you get him there.

 

[Guttersniped]

I hate "odds", because you're essentially asking me to make something up out of thin air. But I'll gladly give you my best answer anyway, while trying to shed some light on how I would come up with it.

When looking at the question of where any player would be drafted, the first things I looks for is the consensus ranking and the McKenzie ranking. The consensus ranking can be found on elite prospects.com where they consolidate 14 high-profile rankings (including of course their own) and essentially average them out. The McKenzie ranking is also "not just some guy's opinion" because it uses a poll of 10 actual NHL scouts. These two tools combined usually give a fair indication of where we can expect a player to be drafted.

With David Jiricek, the consolidated ranking is #8 and the McKenzie ranking is #7.
With Cutter Gauthier, the consolidated ranking is #17 and the McKenzie ranking is #13,

The higher rankings with McKenzie are no surprise here, as NHL scouts prefer big, physical players while many of the scouting bureaus don't enter physicality of defensive play (which I think is absurd) into their scouting algorithm. But NHL scouts certainly give weight to things the draft writers might ignore, like size, physicality, compete level and position. So, while a Will Scouching or Scott Wheeler might rank a small, perimeter high-scoring LW over a physical, old-school shut-down RD, many NHL teams are likely to covet the RD more. Essentially what I'm saying is that Jiricek and Gauthier are both likely to be drafted over many players with higher consensus rankings.

Some examples are:
2019: Moritz Seider vs. Anttoni Honka. I'm not sure if history will remember this (or want to), but Anttoni Honka had a consolidated ranking in the early 20s, while Seider was around the last few picks of the 1st round. Why? I have no idea. Seider was my #11 overall -- he was fast, smart, competitive and physical but wouldn't sacrifice team results for point-scoring. Honka barely made my top 100 -- he was even faster and very skilled, but his game essentially amounted to "a little guy scoring a lot and then blowing defensive assignments and avoiding physicality until the next time a teammate got him the puck". Many draft-writers acted with horror when Seider went #6 overall to Detroit and Honka fell to the late 3rd round to Carolina. For me, none of this was a surprise, and it's also not surprising that just a few years later Seider is a shoo-in for the Calder Trophy while Honka is still playing in Finland where he puts up a lot of points but still cannot defend.

2020: Noel Gunler Vs. Lukas Reichel. I'm using this as an example because I was one of the overwhelming draft writers who ranked Gunler ahead of Reichel, though I was high on both. If you want a guy who called this one right it was @Guadana -- who was higher on Reichel than anyone and very lukewarm on Gunler. Gunler has all the talent in the world, fast and big and with a cannon shot -- while Reichel is above-average skill-wise but everything plays up because of his high compete, high IQ and fearlessness. There is not a single skill Reichel has over Gunler, but when you watch them both it's one guy who frustrates shift in and shift out vs. another who impresses shift in and shift out. Reichel went 15 spots higher than his consensus ranking to Chicago at #17, while Gunler fell about 30 spots lower than expected, at #41 to Carolina, who clearly likes to swing for the fences.

2021: The Curious Case of Tyler Boucher Well Ahead of Fabian Lysell. Lysell was almost always ranked between #7 and #12 -- an incredible combination of speed and skill, despite questions about his personality and obvious concerns with consistency of effort. Tyler Boucher was usually ranked from the early 2nd round to the early 3rd, but boy could he hit and boy was he tough, while also having the requisite offensive ability and skating to pop in with a bit of offense. Well, we don't have to look to far back to see Boucher went to Ottawa at #10 while Lysell fell to Boston at #21. In retrospect both teams may have blew it by not taking Zachary L'Heureux, who is tougher than Boucher and has more scoring upside than Lysell (but is also considered by many to be a ticking time bomb). But Ottawa made a very bad pick, because quite frankly they could have traded down -- at least 10 spots -- and still gotten Boucher, while Boston made a pretty good pick, because they have a lot of gritty, middle six prospects but lack high end talent in the pipeline. This was a chance they couldn't afford to pass up.

So back to 2022. I don't think anyone doubts Jiricek will go top 7 except complete moron mock drafters -- he's uniquely big, fast, skilled and physical. The most coveted positions every draft -- and we see players at these positions routinely get drafted higher than the consensus -- are RD and C. If Jiricek went #2 to Seattle -- hoping to get their own Moritz Seider to build the blueline around -- I don't think it would be a shock to anyone except some Byron Bader-type imebecile who ranks defensemen solely on points. I'm sure we can go back and find his criticisms of Detroit taking Seider when guys like Honka and Broberg were still available. But Jiricek is certainly a guy who could go very, very early -- even top 3. If the Devils drafted at #3 overall and took Jiricek, I think it would be expected more than surprising.

As far as Gauthier goes, it's a different story. A lot of the modern stats-oriented guys are trying to pick him apart and rank him in the #20s because they spend so much time trying to rationalize their own arguments that character, grit and physicality are immaterial when assessing hockey players. But Gauthier is also leading an incredibly stacked US-NTDP in goal scoring -- he's got an eye-popping 48 goals in 60 games. Against his own age group? US-NTDP starts the season against the NCAA and tourney teams, then moves to a USHL schedule. Gauthier has 18 goals in 18 USHL games. Not only is he physical as hell and fast, versatile and good defensively, but this kid can flat out score. So, I'd say don't believe the consensus ranking, because Gauthier is better than Tyler Boucher in every single aspect of hockey. I think he goes in the #8-#12 overall range, but could go higher if a team which covets players specifically like him (Ottawa, Anaheim, Islanders) or a team which needs players specifically like him (NJ, Detroit, Philadelphia) grabs him in the #5-#8 range.

Rankings aren’t mock drafts though.

Rankings had Barzal higher than 16 and Connor higher than 17 as well as Zacha lower than 6 and DeBrusk lower than 14.

Rankings had DeBrincat well in the 1st round but he went 39th.

Jason Robertson was in a lot of people’s top 31 but he went 39th.*

Cue “GM/NHL teams are dumb!”, after cherry picking results like that.

These rankings, other than Bob, who is just polling NHL scouts and therefore is a unique valuable resource, are people’s own takes on the players, not a guess when they will go.

They have a weird relationship with the general consensus since people tend to build their lists off each other but the major ones have unique takes.

If you’re talking about mock drafts that’s different but slamming people for liking players who were drafted later or not liking guys who went early is weird. I don’t have to like Tyler Boucher more because Ottawa was super into him.

I don’t see the Seider pick as that much as a shocker in hindsight, there was a thread recently and few of us argued against that narrative. (I doubt any minds were changed but it was nice to bond with like-minded people over the issue I guess lol.)

Bob’s rankings had one defenseman (Byram) in the top 13, the top 12 were 11 forwards & a goalie. Then the 14-18 were a pile-up of defensemen with Seider in the middle at 16.

He went early, but so then did Broberg, at #8 while ranked 15, Söderström at #11 ranked at 14, York at #14 ranked at 18. (Harley went at #18 and was ranked 17.) Teams really want potential top pairing defensemen in the 1st round, only potential 1Cs are more coveted. It’s not rocket science.

Yzerman has said he tried to trade down and grab Seider later. Ironically the Ducks were looking to take him at 9th (but Zegras ended up being a great consolation prize). If Yzerman had traded too far down though, he might have lost Seider.

I do think figuring out what you look for in a defensive prospect in terms of their future development and what has value for NHL teams is something that you do focus on and do well at. (And other writers, uh, less so.)

Wheeler’s very specific takes on defensemen is I guess focused on activation, or transition, or offense which is extraordinarily important but he never quite picks more multi-dimensional PMD and ends up highlighting a lot of guys who end up with the dreaded “undersized potential 2nd PP unit QB” description. (I think that is supposed to be a positive? Sort of at least? But honestly it’s not. No one is searching the draft for that ever elusive 2nd unit PP QB.)

*Our 2nd is currently 39th, but hey, who needs their 2nd round pick, right Ray? (Not us from 2018 to 2021.)

 

[StevenToddIves]

Rankings aren’t mock drafts though.

Rankings had Barzal higher than 16 and Connor higher than 17 as well as Zacha lower than 6 and DeBrusk lower than 14.

Rankings had DeBrincat well in the 1st round but he went 39th.

Jason Robertson was in a lot of people’s top 31 but he went 39th.*

Cue “GM/NHL teams are dumb!”, after cherry picking results like that.

These rankings, other than Bob, who is just polling NHL scouts and therefore is a unique valuable resource, are people’s own takes on the players, not a guess when they will go.

They have a weird relationship with the general consensus since people tend to build their lists off each other but the major ones have unique takes.

If you’re talking about mock drafts that’s different but slamming people for liking players who were drafted later or not liking guys who went early is weird. I don’t have to like Tyler Boucher more because Ottawa was super into him.

I don’t see the Seider pick as that much as a shocker in hindsight, there was a thread recently and few of us argued against that narrative. (I doubt any minds were changed but it was nice to bond with like-minded people over the issue I guess lol.)

Bob’s rankings had one defenseman (Byram) in the top 13, the top 12 were 11 forwards & a goalie. Then the 14-18 were a pile-up of defensemen with Seider in the middle at 16.

He went early, but so then did Broberg, at #8 while ranked 15, Söderström at #11 ranked at 14, York at #14 ranked at 18. (Harley went at #18 and was ranked 17.) Teams really want potential top pairing defensemen in the 1st round, only potential 1Cs are more coveted. It’s not rocket science.

Yzerman has said he tried to trade down and grab Seider later. Ironically the Ducks were looking to take him at 9th (but Zegras ended up being a great consolation prize). If Yzerman had traded too far down though, he might have lost Seider.

I do think figuring out what you look for in a defensive prospect in terms of their future development and what has value for NHL teams is something that you do focus on and do well at. (And other writers, uh, less so.)

Wheeler’s very specific takes on defensemen is I guess focused on activation, or transition, or offense which is extraordinarily important but he never quite picks more multi-dimensional PMD and ends up highlighting a lot of guys who end up with the dreaded “undersized potential 2nd PP unit QB” description. (I think that is supposed to be a positive? Sort of at least? But honestly it’s not. No one is searching the draft for that ever elusive 2nd unit PP QB.)

*Our 2nd is currently 39th, but hey, who needs their 2nd round pick, right Ray? (Not us from 2018 to 2021.)

Great post, here, as always.

Personally, I love 2nd round picks and hope to heck the Devils hang onto theirs this year -- especially this year. I honestly feel that the situation in Russia could drop potential first-line talents like Perevalov and Trikozov into the early 2nd round, and either one of them would be like a free top 20 pick. And that's not even mentioning the thought that Miroshnichenko could drop to the 2nd due to a combination of illness and the New Russian Factor. Miroshnichenko has an argument alongside Shane Wright/Slafkovsky/Lambert for the highest upside in the entire class, and he could potentially be around at #39 overall.

Even if none of those guys drop, the ever-elusive (as you stated) "consensus" has many high quality players around the #39 range -- Kulich, Kaplan, Poitras, Del Bel Belluz, Nyman, Lamoureux, Warren, Rinzel and so on. Or there are guys worth a pick there generally ranked later -- Adam Sykora immediately comes to mind, and so does Reid Schafer.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I'm still working through my Sweden player capsules, and Finland is next on the docket. If anyone wants to watch a few prospects and help me out, I'd love to not be the only opinion on these threads, which are generally best for everyone else when @Guadana , @Guttersniped , @thethinglonger and myself are all arguing with each other because one likes a particular player more than the others.

I'm going to put up a new mock draft thread as soon as the trade deadline passes, and probably do a rankings 2.0 where I expand to a top 50 soon after that. As always, let me know if there are any prospects you would like to see written up, I'd be glad to as always.

 

[My3Sons]

Rankings aren’t mock drafts though.

Rankings had Barzal higher than 16 and Connor higher than 17 as well as Zacha lower than 6 and DeBrusk lower than 14.

Rankings had DeBrincat well in the 1st round but he went 39th.

Jason Robertson was in a lot of people’s top 31 but he went 39th.*

Cue “GM/NHL teams are dumb!”, after cherry picking results like that.

These rankings, other than Bob, who is just polling NHL scouts and therefore is a unique valuable resource, are people’s own takes on the players, not a guess when they will go.

They have a weird relationship with the general consensus since people tend to build their lists off each other but the major ones have unique takes.

If you’re talking about mock drafts that’s different but slamming people for liking players who were drafted later or not liking guys who went early is weird. I don’t have to like Tyler Boucher more because Ottawa was super into him.

I don’t see the Seider pick as that much as a shocker in hindsight, there was a thread recently and few of us argued against that narrative. (I doubt any minds were changed but it was nice to bond with like-minded people over the issue I guess lol.)

Bob’s rankings had one defenseman (Byram) in the top 13, the top 12 were 11 forwards & a goalie. Then the 14-18 were a pile-up of defensemen with Seider in the middle at 16.

He went early, but so then did Broberg, at #8 while ranked 15, Söderström at #11 ranked at 14, York at #14 ranked at 18. (Harley went at #18 and was ranked 17.) Teams really want potential top pairing defensemen in the 1st round, only potential 1Cs are more coveted. It’s not rocket science.

Yzerman has said he tried to trade down and grab Seider later. Ironically the Ducks were looking to take him at 9th (but Zegras ended up being a great consolation prize). If Yzerman had traded too far down though, he might have lost Seider.

I do think figuring out what you look for in a defensive prospect in terms of their future development and what has value for NHL teams is something that you do focus on and do well at. (And other writers, uh, less so.)

Wheeler’s very specific takes on defensemen is I guess focused on activation, or transition, or offense which is extraordinarily important but he never quite picks more multi-dimensional PMD and ends up highlighting a lot of guys who end up with the dreaded “undersized potential 2nd PP unit QB” description. (I think that is supposed to be a positive? Sort of at least? But honestly it’s not. No one is searching the draft for that ever elusive 2nd unit PP QB.)

*Our 2nd is currently 39th, but hey, who needs their 2nd round pick, right Ray? (Not us from 2018 to 2021.)

The whole Seider was a shocking pick seems odd to me. As you’ve noted he was ranked on McKenzie’s scouting survey as a mid first round pick. That’s hardly an unheralded prospect. Going where he did was a nice jump but not unheard of and not a stroke of lightning. If NHL scouts rank you at 16 from a lesser hockey country as a defensive defenseman you are a premium prospect.

 

[Guttersniped]

 

[StevenToddIves]

2022 Draft Profile:

LW Fabian Wagner, Linkoping J20 Sweden Jr.
Fabian Wagner is a 6'0-175 winger who has produced pretty well in the J20 with 38 points in 43 games. He is a good skater with some intriguing skills, so he has gotten a bit of love leading up to the 2022 draft with rankings as high as the late 2nd round (#56, Recruites). He's a pretty smart kid with a decent compete level, but he has so many variables to work on in order to make the NHL that it would be foolish to consider him a "safe" pick.

Wagner skates well, but lacks a separation gear which would upgrade this skill to what could be considered a strength. Though he has a projectable frame, he's not very strong and can be outmuscled. He shows good offensive instincts which hint at a good hockey IQ, but his decision making is a bit off which perhaps could be attributable to uneven fundamentals. This is also evident in some of his tools, such as his shot. The power is very good, but a sloppy release and follow through negatively affect the quickness and accuracy.

Defensively, Wagner is also a player who gives great effort but not always results. He's easily baited by high-skill opposition and it does not take too much of an opposing cycle to get him to forget positioning and gaps. These sorts of problems are also apparent on the forecheck, where he is always skating hard but sometimes leaves you curious where it is exactly that he's skating to. He just goes right at the puck hard, but doesn't have the strategical mind-set to actually bait the opposition into mistakes which will allow him to turn over possession.

Wagner is a player who might have upside, but there is just so much to work on. His projectable frame and good skating and solid J20 stat line will see him drafted sometime, but anywhere before the 6th round would be too high for my liking. I do like him as a 6th/7th round, let him stay in Sweden and see how he develops sort of prospect, but it's hard to pinpoint a precise upside because he's just really far off.

 

[StevenToddIves]

2022 Draft Profile:

RD Ludvig Janssen, Sodertalje Allsvenskan
Ludvig Janssen is an offense-first defender although his Allsvenskan stat line of 5 points in 47 games is probably a poor reflection of that. For those unfamiliar with the European leagues, the Swedish Allsvenskan is a secondary men's league to the SHL, sort of like the AHL is to the NHL. So he's playing against men with professional experience, which is still quite challenging for a prospect who just turned 18 in late December. It's my belief that Janssen would have much better numbers had he spent the lion's share of the season in the J20, and his 4 points in 9 games there certainly back up this belief. Janssen has gotten some positive attention due to very good mobility, a good tool kit and a solid 6'0-175 frame, with a few 3rd round rankings and one anomalously high one of #53 overall by Draft Prospects Hockey.

Janssen's foremost strengths are probably all in the offensive zone. He's got a great set of hands and can really dangle quite well. His offensive awareness and passing games are both good right now with room to improve as he develops. Janssen features a very good shot which he gets off quickly with an economical release. Janssen is active off the point without being a true gambler, and most of the time I think he has pretty good decision making in this respect. Janssen's straight line speed is quite good, even if he has a bit of an awkward stride which negatively affects some of his ancillary skating abilities. Foremost among them would be skating backwards, which I would say Janssen is actually pretty poor at. This must be improved for him to make the NHL, much less succeed there.

Janssen also needs a lot of work on his defensive game. The effort is there and I like his instincts, but his gaps and positioning need a boatload of work and development. Pressure can force him into mistakes, which is certainly the area of greatest concern. He can be physically beaten by bigger and stronger forwards. That being said, he's very good with the puck in space, and his outlet passing game is dependent on how much time he has. I certainly feel there is upside here as a middle pair, offense-first defender which certainly makes Janssen intriguing.

As a RD with upside, Janssen must get attention from the Devils and their fans come draft day. The Devils absolutely must fill the dearth organizationally at the position. It is my opinion that the 2nd round is too early to draft Janssen, because the upside does not match the uncertainty with this prospect. I'd certainly consider him in the 4th round, and he'd be a very strong pick there. This is a young player with all the essential tools to be a pretty good scoring professional defenseman and still take care of his own end. But he's got a lot of work to do in order to get there.

 

[mdj12784]

My friend just informed me about a WHL player by the name of Benjamin King. Said he was passed up in the 2020 draft. Is there a reason why, outside of hockey?

 

[StevenToddIves]

My friend just informed me about a WHL player by the name of Benjamin King. Said he was passed up in the 2020 draft. Is there a reason why, outside of hockey?

I wrote King up as a potential sleeper pick last year. He just missed my top 100, but I had him somewhere in the 4th round. He's a heart and soul type player who gets the most of his talent, and he's really been tearing it up this year in Red Deer. He's huge and can go in the 3rd round this year.

 

[mdj12784]

I wrote King up as a potential sleeper pick last year. He just missed my top 100, but I had him somewhere in the 4th round. He's a heart and soul type player who gets the most of his talent, and he's really been tearing it up this year in Red Deer. He's huge and can go in the 3rd round this year.

Thank you for the reply! Always appreciate your knowledge!

 

[StevenToddIves]

Good news and bad news from the Devils draft front today.

The good news is Philadelphia's big comeback victory, which drops them to 7th overall in the draft and catapults the Devils up to 6th.

The bad news is Ottawa has lost top D Chabot for the season, which definitely will negatively affect their final record. Right now, they sit in the 4th overall position for the 2022 draft.

As we've pretty much identified the Devils top 3 draft targets as RDs Jiricek and Nemec and LW Slafkovsky (barring of course a lottery win in the race for Shane Wright), it's important to identify the needs of the 7 teams currently battling for the top draft positions.

First off, I'm confident right now you will need a top 3 pick to get Slafkovsky. His Olympic performance was near legendary and he's really starting to heat up in the Finnish Liiga. He's probably the top threat to Shane Wright at #1 overall.

This leaves Jiricek and Nemec as the top targets. I firmly believe that Arizona needs a center, first and foremost. As a new expansion franchise, Seattle is a wild card which can go in any direction, but Ron Francis comes from a Carolina organization which traditionally prefers to take forwards early and D later in the draft -- will his mind set be similar in Seattle?

However, several teams have discernible organizational needs at RD -- a very difficult position to fill. Aside from the Devils, we'd also have to include pretty much every other team in the mix -- Montreal, Ottawa, Buffalo, Philadelphia.

The more I think about it, the Devils will need a top 3 pick to have any shot at Slafkovsky, and a top 6 pick to have any shot at Jiricek or Nemec, with a top 5 pick being a probably guarantee.

Otherwise, I think the top Devils target could be power F Cutter Gauthier. The only other team I would consider a threat to take Gauthier top 7 would be Ottawa.

Right now, a top 5 could conceivably go like this:

1 MTL Wright
2 SEA Slafkovsky
3 ARI Cooley
4 OTT Jiricek
5 BUF Nemec
6 NJ ???

This would make a lot of sense, but the only thing which gives me hope here is that Ottawa very, very rarely drafts Europeans who are not from Scandinavia. Outside of Tim Stutzle, who was considered a slam-dunk at #3 overall in 2020, the last one was Czech center Filip Chlapik who the Senators took in the 2nd round way back in 2015. The last Russian the Senators drafted was -- believe it or not -- waaaay back in 2007, so you can probably rule out Danila Yurov when making your mock draft. If we incorporate this into our hypothetical scenario, I think we can go in another direction:

1 MTL Wright
2 SEA Slafkovsky
3 ARI Cooley
4 OTT Kemell or Geekie
5 BUF Jirieck or Nemec
6 NJ whichever of Jiricek/Nemec the Sabres pass on

This is pretty relevant because Ottawa losing Chabot quite likely leaves them in front of the Devils on draft day. The jingoism in the Ottawa "old boy" front office could be a major help to the Devils if this happens.

 

[StevenToddIves]

2022 Draft Profile:

RW Miko Matikka, Jokerit U20 Finland Jr.
Matikka is a player who is intriguing in his parts but a bit frustrating in how those parts come together. Despite some injury problems this year, he has put up an impressive 16-14-30 line in 28 games. He's immediately noticeable as a 6'3-185 winger with good skating ability and a bomb of a shot. His overall skill set is quite good when taken apart piece by piece, but I've yet to see a game where Matikka stood out as one of the best players on the ice. Often he is the most naturally gifted player on the ice but is a non-factor due to consistently being outworked. You wonder if this is a result of the injuries which have plagued him a bit, or if there is reason to be concerned with the compete level.

Matikka is strongest on the cycle down low and when he has the puck. Quite obviously, he is very big and strong and mobile, and combines that with a good set of hands -- there are just not many defenders at his level capable of getting the puck away from him once he has it. When he has the puck, Matikka shines -- he's a good passer and just a terrific shooter. Give him space and he'll blast one past the goalie. Try to keep a tight gap, and he'll run you over and drive to the net. There are times when Matikka is really on his game and looks like a high 2nd round pick, maybe even a guy for the late first.

When he doesn't have the puck, Matikka can be more of a problem for his own team than the opposition. He's routinely the last guy back on the back check, and once he gets back to defend he can be "just a body", floating around and not really covering anyone or anticipating anything. Even in the offensive zone, Matikka's effort level will fluctuate from shift to shift. One shift he'll seem unstoppable with the puck always on his stick, and the next it's almost like he's taking a break after a couple hard shifts -- floating around up high and waiting for his linemates to dig the puck out and set him up for a ripper.

Matikka is a good player who leaves you wanting more. He's like the DC Movie of Finnish hockey prospects, like: "sure, it had its good moments but why are the Marvel movies so much better?" I think someone drafts him in the 3rd round, maybe even the 2nd, seeing a huge body who can skate and blast the puck. Miko Matikka has a lot of qualities a lot of NHL front offices put at the top of their scouting checklists. But, though this is a player who can mature and make a lot of people look bad for passing on him, I'd prefer to wait until the later rounds before looking at him. He's a second round talent who gives a 7th round consistency of effort, so when I'm drafting him I'm probably going to start paying attention in the middle of those two places.

 

[StevenToddIves]

2022 Draft Profile:

RD Otto Salin, HIFK U20 Finnish Jr.
Salin is a player who is tough to assess because he's missed all but 10 games of this season due to injury, and it is difficult to assess if he was 100% healthy even when he was on the ice. Generally, he's striking as an offensive-minded defenseman with terrific skating and a nice set of surrounding skills. But he's also true to his prototype as a 5'11-190 undersized defender, as he can be beaten in his own zone by stronger forwards and also makes a number of high-danger plays which often go wrong and lead to high-danger chances against.

When Salin is looking healthy and on his game, he is certainly impressive. He plays a game where he is always thinking and working hard. He makes a number of creative little plays with the puck and is one of those guys who when you just expect him to chip the puck out of danger, often will make a quick juke and deke and somehow find a way to lace a puck onto a teammate's stick to break out of the zone with possession. He's got a lot of battle to him and is by no means soft, which to me is absolutely crucial when assessing this type of player. For example, I was very down on Anttoni Honka a couple of years back -- an offensive defender with an absolutely elite skill set who would see a physical opponent go into his corner with the puck and just hang back waving his stick as to say "no way I'm going up against that dude". Meanwhile, in this draft we have 5'6 Lane Hutson, maybe the smallest defender we've ever seen, who is willing to battle any 6'3 forward you throw at him. Salin is definitely a high-courage, high-compete guy, and as such he's a player I'm high on even though I'd prefer him to be a bit more careful in his puck management.

So, while I'd call Salin a passable-but-needs-work defender, we should talk about his offense, because that's where he truly shines. Again, he's a terrific skater who has brilliant hands, he always wants the puck on his stick and plays with almost a brashness once he does. He likes to lead the breakout and often baits a forechecker to try to go at him because he has so many moves and such agility that he can just turn them inside-out and make them look silly. He's a creative and often beautiful passer -- if the opposition forechecks him too aggressively, he's one of those players who can beat two opponents at once and then beat you with a cross-ice stretch pass. He's just very gifted with the puck, and he knows it, and he's dying for an opportunity to show it off.

Once in the offense zone, Salin is dangerous but not dominant. He's not Cale Makar back there, but he's nimble and willing to activate to generate offense. His shot is about average, but the opposition always must be aware of his ability to beat you one-on-one in isolated situations. You'd rather just have him shoot than have your forward go at him and beat him to bring the puck freely down low. Salin is a player the opposing coaching staff needs to game-plan against.

The problem with drafting a defenseman you hope will be very good offensively but just average defensively is that if they don't hit their absolute offensive ceiling, they're probably more of a liability back there than an asset. This is to say, while Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes are certainly assets for their team, they're also rare players in a league full of offense-first defenders, many of whom your team might be better off without. We all want 35-point, mid-pairing defenders, but if they're not equally good defensively they may be hurting you more than helping. The question is: how good offensively can Salin become, and can he at least become an average defender? This is especially difficult to surmise, particularly in a draft-eligible season which has only seen him healthy for a handful of games.

Otto Salin is significantly talented enough that I would be willing to take this chance in the later rounds, probably starting with the 4th. Most of his rankings seem to fall in the range of the high 3rd round, and I'd say that's fair, but my personal bias that defenders need to defend first would probably slip him one round in my own rankings. But again, I'm high on his talent and Otto Salin is certainly a fun player to watch and a legit player to watch as an offensive defender with mid-pairing, 40+ point upside at the highest levels.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

For anyone wondering where we could pick.

Right now, it’s a 6 team battle for spots 3-8 going into the draft lottery. (ARI, small gap, OTT, BUF, NJD, PHI, small gap, CHI)

Detroit (9th last), Montreal (last), and Seattle (2nd last) are also somewhat reachable with a really strong or poor finish but aren’t close enough right now and aren’t likely to be passed either way.

If we finish strong we could end up picking in the 7-10 range. A poor finish and we could end up picking in the 3-5 range. I’d be happy if it goes either way as long as our young players are doing well and still producing.

But at this point we could realistically pick anywhere in the top 10 depending on how we finish the season and the draft lottery.

 

[StevenToddIves]

For anyone wondering where we could pick.

Right now, it’s a 6 team battle for spots 3-8 going into the draft lottery. (ARI, small gap, OTT, BUF, NJD, PHI, small gap, CHI)

Detroit (9th last), Montreal (last), and Seattle (2nd last) are also somewhat reachable with a really strong or poor finish but aren’t close enough right now and aren’t likely to be passed either way.

If we finish strong we could end up picking in the 7-10 range. A poor finish and we could end up picking in the 3-5 range. I’d be happy if it goes either way as long as our young players are doing well and still producing.

But at this point we could realistically pick anywhere in the top 10 depending on how we finish the season and the draft lottery.

Yeah, absolutely agreed. I discussed this three posts up, where the Devils could draft and what the possible consequences could be.

I feel the Devils top 3 targets -- going by (1. Consensus Ranking; 2. Devils Organizational Need; 3. GM Tom Fitzgerald's apparent MO) would be LW Juraj Slafkovsky and RDs David Jiricek and Simon Nemec. Slafkovsky is a guy you're probably going to need a top 3 pick to land. There's a little more uncertainty with Jiricek and Nemec, either of whom could go anywhere in the #2-#8 range. But -- much as with Sanderson and Drysdale two years ago -- you're probably going to need a top 5 pick (or at least top 6) to have a realistic chance of getting one of the two top D.

Essentially, picking 6-9 looks a lot different than picking 4-6, much less 1-3.

I feel if the Devils miss out on Slafkovsky, Jiricek and Nemec the next target should be -- and quite possibly might be -- power LW Cutter Gauthier, who is probably the most underrated forward in the 2022 draft. Though his consensus ranking is generally in the teens, he's the best power forward in the draft and perhaps the best goal-scorer outside of only Wright and Kemell. In my next rankings (which I'll do sometime after the trade deadline), I'm going to have Gauthier ranked pretty high. I'll give a quick preview of where I was when doing a bit of work on things lats night:

1 C Wright
2 LW Slafkovsky
3 RD Jiricek
4 C Cooley
5 RD Nemec
6 LW Gauthier
7 C Savoie
8 RW Kemell
9 LW Yurov
10 RW Nazar
11 RW Perevalov
12 RD Chesley

As to be expected, this differs from the consensus a bit. Elite prospects lists a nice view of the consensus, with their "consolidated ranking" which combines 15 scouting bureaus and draft writers to come up with their list:

1 C Wright
2 C Cooley
3 RD Nemec
4 C Savoie
5 RW Kemell
6 LW Slafkovsky
7 RD Jiricek
8 LW Yurov
9 RW Lambert
10 RW Nazar
11 C Geekie
12 RW Lekkerimaki

I feel neither the consensus ranking -- nor mine -- will mirror the actual draft order. The consensus is tainted by a couple of peculiarly low rankings for Slafkovsky and Jiricek in particular, both of whom have the size and physicality which NHL front offices covet but certain draft writers almost seem to weirdly resent. Gauthier is likely the same, with a #15 ranking. As far as my list goes, I'm a bit critical of Lambert'and Geekie's compete level and Lekkerimaki's 200-foot game. They'll all be in my top 20, but not my top dozen. Everyone in my top 12 has a compete level which is either elite or not far from it. I'm also higher than most on defensive defensemen -- which @Guttersniped likes to make fun of me for -- which explains Chesley's slot in my current top 12 -- the biggest riser on my list, since his consensus ranking is actually #31.

We also have to keep in mind the possibility all Russians fall in the 2022 draft, which could make a potential top-line star like Yurov fall into the mid-to-late 1st while other high-end forwards Miroshnichenko, Perevalov and Trikozov could even fall to the 2nd.

It's going to be a weird draft this year, but it's absolutely crucial for the Devils future. There are big needs for a top 4 RD and top 6 LW -- as well as an interior power forward who can make room for the Devils smaller skill guys. Again, Slafkovsky is the best option here but you're probably going to need a lottery win to get him top 3. Gauthier is next on my list and I've written at length on these threads how high I am on him -- he's leading the US-NTDP in goals with 48 in 60 games and I'd take him as early as #4 overall and feel pretty good about it.

 

[Buck Dancer]

I'm not saying we should tank but the fact that teams around us will be selling some key assets and from the looks of things, we don't look like we're going to be that active in the upcoming days.

 

[My3Sons]

I'm not saying we should tank but the fact that teams around us will be selling some key assets and from the looks of things, we don't look like we're going to be that active in the upcoming days.

Have you seen the goalies? I'm not sure what more NJ could do to get a hight draft pick other than maybe play Smith and Subban a few more minutes per game.

 

[Buck Dancer]

Have you seen the goalies? I'm not sure what more NJ could do to get a hight draft pick other than maybe play Smith and Subban a few more minutes per game.

It's not as if Buffalo, Ottawa, Arizona and Philly have elite goaltending but yeah, I see what you're saying.

Chabot being out for the remainder of the season is another "plus" for the Sens.

 

[My3Sons]

It's not as if Buffalo, Ottawa, Arizona and Philly have elite goaltending but yeah, I see what you're saying.

Chabot being out for the remainder of the season is another "plus" for the Sens.

I think NJ as a team would be best served at this point by actually winning. They have their basic core players in place and short of winning a top three pick you are probably looking at a player three or four years away from making an impact. That’s not a guy you can plan around anymore.