Prospect Info: 2022 Draft Final STI Rankings -- Top 120

My3Sons

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By the way, no one ever needs to add a disclaimer about my watching the prospects more -- we all have equal right to our opinions. My opinion is no better than anyone else's.

That being said, I'd say right now Johnston is a superior prospect to Morrison and he's younger, but I agree with you that the separation between the two is not all that extreme. This is notable when we take into account that a 2021 re-draft likely sees Johnston as a top 7-10 pick overall.

We can go so far as to say the three top OHL centers this year where Johnston as a clear #1, then Morrison at #2 and Shane Wright at #3. Though we could make an argument over several OHL forwards being in the argument for second best forward after Johnston, Morrison would certainly have to be in that conversation.

But in the OHL playoffs? Morrison was the best player in the entire OHL, and the only player who was really close was Johnston. We're not talking a tiny sample, either -- Morrison had a 17-22-39 line in 19 games. That's pretty much equivalent to 1/3 of the OHL season. If we combine Morrison's statistical output over an NHL-schedule-like 79 games of regular season and playoffs, he finished with 51 goals and 88 assists for 139 points. That's simply phenomenal.

By comparison for those who are wondering, Johnston played 93 games across the OHL season and playoffs, totaling 60 goals and 105 assists for 165 points. For Johnston, that's 1.77 points per game, while for Morrison it's 1.76. Again, Morrison is almost a full year older -- while Johnston's birthdate is 5/14/03, Morrison's is 7/9/02.

Both players have very good skill sets and are very good two-way centers. Both skate well and feature high intangibles. Ultimately, I give Johnston the edge, but it's not by as much as people might think.
That was a very detailed way of explaining what I saw as well so thanks for that. To me, getting a Morrison in the second round would be good value. He's older sure, but even so, how many guys are going to be just about as good as a top ten pick who is less than a full year younger? Morrison will be an NHL player sooner rather than later most likely. His ceiling is up for debate but in NJ he'd be a nice fit as the depth center so many posters are looking for. I'm not sure who the highest upside Russian will be, but failing that, I think I'd take him over the right defenders likely to be there since one seems likely to still be around in the third. I presume Beck will be gone by NJ's pick in the second. As you've noted, it's a shame NJ didn't find a way to secure another second round pick this season. It would have been a really good draft for it.
 

StevenToddIves

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That was a very detailed way of explaining what I saw as well so thanks for that. To me, getting a Morrison in the second round would be good value. He's older sure, but even so, how many guys are going to be just about as good as a top ten pick who is less than a full year younger? Morrison will be an NHL player sooner rather than later most likely. His ceiling is up for debate but in NJ he'd be a nice fit as the depth center so many posters are looking for. I'm not sure who the highest upside Russian will be, but failing that, I think I'd take him over the right defenders likely to be there since one seems likely to still be around in the third. I presume Beck will be gone by NJ's pick in the second. As you've noted, it's a shame NJ didn't find a way to secure another second round pick this season. It would have been a really good draft for it.
I'd be extremely happy with a pick of Logan Morrison in Round 2, obviously. The problem is, it's difficult for me to estimate if that's a value pick or not. Though the draft analysts have not rated Morrison nearly as highly as I have, I think we can be assured that more than a few NHL scouting staffs have taken notice. The OHL is the most heavily scouted amateur hockey league in the world right now, and an argument for Morrison as the 2nd best player in the entire league is not without merit.

Again, depth center is the Devils second-biggest need for the 2022 draft after only RD. The Devils have really dropped the ball drafting depth centers recently. Ben Baumgartner was washed out within months of the day he was drafted, Shlaine is a long shot for the AHL much less the NHL, Pytlik's injuries have clouded his future, and both Bardakov and Salminen are more likely future wingers than centers.

Fortunately, I like the 2022 draft for depth centers. Beck and Gaucher have outside chances to fall to #37, and Morrison and Ostlund will likely be available there. In Round 3, there will likely be one or more of McConnell-Barker, Del Bel Belluz, Kaskimaki, Sapovaliv and Zhilkin. Late round possibilities include Ali, Arnsby, Berard, Fimis, Ronni, Ludwinski and Spicer. That's a list of (including Morrison) 16 players whom I feel would immediately become the Devils #1 center prospect, which is a lot.
 

Team Concept

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I'd be extremely happy with a pick of Logan Morrison in Round 2, obviously. The problem is, it's difficult for me to estimate if that's a value pick or not. Though the draft analysts have not rated Morrison nearly as highly as I have, I think we can be assured that more than a few NHL scouting staffs have taken notice. The OHL is the most heavily scouted amateur hockey league in the world right now, and an argument for Morrison as the 2nd best player in the entire league is not without merit.

Again, depth center is the Devils second-biggest need for the 2022 draft after only RD. The Devils have really dropped the ball drafting depth centers recently. Ben Baumgartner was washed out within months of the day he was drafted, Shlaine is a long shot for the AHL much less the NHL, Pytlik's injuries have clouded his future, and both Bardakov and Salminen are more likely future wingers than centers.

Fortunately, I like the 2022 draft for depth centers. Beck and Gaucher have outside chances to fall to #37, and Morrison and Ostlund will likely be available there. In Round 3, there will likely be one or more of McConnell-Barker, Del Bel Belluz, Kaskimaki, Sapovaliv and Zhilkin. Late round possibilities include Ali, Arnsby, Berard, Fimis, Ronni, Ludwinski and Spicer. That's a list of (including Morrison) 16 players whom I feel would immediately become the Devils #1 center prospect, which is a lot.
Ives, I think taking Morrison in the 2nd round would be a huge mistake. I have no problem taking a flyer on him later in the draft, but drafting an overager in the early 2nd is a wasted pick in my view. I know you have gotten on me in the past on just focusing on the stats. I admit I do not watch these players. I am not a scout. However, production matters. Lets take Nate Schnarr for example. Look at his 20 year old stats in the OHL in comparison to Morrison. They look eerily similar. What has Schnarr amounted to at this point in his development?

Schnarr
2018-19 Guelph StormOHL6534681025843
Morrison:
2021-22Hamilton BulldogsOHL603466100844
 

My3Sons

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Ives, I think taking Morrison in the 2nd round would be a huge mistake. I have no problem taking a flyer on him later in the draft, but drafting an overager in the early 2nd is a wasted pick in my view. I know you have gotten on me in the past on just focusing on the stats. I admit I do not watch these players. I am not a scout. However, production matters. Lets take Nate Schnarr for example. Look at his 20 year old stats in the OHL in comparison to Morrison. They look eerily similar. What has Schnarr amounted to at this point in his development?

Schnarr
2018-19 Guelph StormOHL6534681025843
Morrison:
2021-22Hamilton BulldogsOHL603466100844
That’s a fair point but I will say that Morrison missed his entire draft plus one when Schnarr was meh. Morrison was also incrementally better in his draft year than Schnarr. Finally, in his draft plus two playoffs Schnarr was meh while Morrison has seemingly taken his game to another level. All that said, Morrison may last in the draft since teams probably shy away from an older prosect. I’d expect a team with multiple picks in the secjbd to maybe take him at the end of the round.
 

StevenToddIves

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Ives, I think taking Morrison in the 2nd round would be a huge mistake. I have no problem taking a flyer on him later in the draft, but drafting an overager in the early 2nd is a wasted pick in my view. I know you have gotten on me in the past on just focusing on the stats. I admit I do not watch these players. I am not a scout. However, production matters. Lets take Nate Schnarr for example. Look at his 20 year old stats in the OHL in comparison to Morrison. They look eerily similar. What has Schnarr amounted to at this point in his development?

Schnarr
2018-19 Guelph StormOHL6534681025843
Morrison:
2021-22Hamilton BulldogsOHL603466100844
It's a legit argument, for sure. Morrison was one of the more experienced players in the OHL -- this is a huge advantage which I have tried not to discount.

But I also scout beyond the stats, and in that respect I'd say Morrison has an advantage over Schnarr in literally every tool except for size/strength. I'd go so far as to say that Morrison possesses one of the best hockey IQs in the entire 2022 class, and his playmaking is near elite. It is for these reasons I would promote Morrison for Round 2, though I agree with you that it might be strategical to wait until the 3rd round and hope he's still on the board.
 

StevenToddIves

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Just looking through the Hockey News draft preview. They've got David Goyette at #53 and Luca De Bel Belluz at #28. I think I like Goyette better. They both played in the OHL and Goyette is the better skater.

Goyette, DavidSBY66334073-6336902178
DelBelBelluz, LucaMISS683046762328121520177
Before writing my thoughts on this, I'd start by saying the Hockey News is a terrific resource, but if their draft coverage has one MO it's that they tend to grade up OHL prospects, who play in their back yard.

I think this might have something to do with the disparity in my rankings of Goyette and Del Bel Belluz and their own. My ranking for Del Bel Belluz is #56 and for Goyette #66.

I like both players, and both players have upside. But there are also concerns for me. Goyette has near-elite skating and very good skill. But I don't think his skill set is first-line caliber, and he's a player who performs far better in space than on the interior. Though his effort level is very admirable, he's the type of player who can be erased by physical defensive play. If he works through this, he can become a 2nd-line support scorer, but I'm not sure if it's as a center or a winger.

Del Bel Belluz is a very good two-way hockey player who is a plus passer and shooter and consistently generates offense while also playing very well in his own zone. My concern with Del Bel Belluz is a lack of athleticism -- his skating is around average, and his strength is below average for his size. I feel the strength can be built up in the weight room, but I'm not sure the skating explosiveness will ever come around. Where I like Del Bel Belluz over Goyette is in the fact he can probably make the NHL in a bottom 6 role and is not confined to a scoring line.

Like the Hockey News with their OHL bias, I have my own biases. I tend to worry a bit about forwards who I consider "2nd line or bust" players -- which is to say they lack 1st line-type upside, and their game is so heavily based on play with the puck and in space that it's difficult to project them to a bottom 6 role. I have the same bias for all-offense defensemen with 2nd pairing upside -- to me, what's the point of a player who costs his own team chances against unless they can dominate offensively at higher levels?

So there are a few forwards like Goyette I may have given a below-consensus ranking to due to these concerns. Hunter Haight is another, and we can probably add Gazizov to this list -- all three of whom play in the OHL.

Would I draft Goyette and Del Bel Belluz? Yes I would, but I would not consider either as early as the #37 pick, and they're both likely to be gone by the time the Devils pick again at #69.
 
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Team Concept

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Christian Dvorak is another OHLer who underwhelmed in his 18 year old season:

2013-14London KnightsOHL33681408

However, unlike Morrison he was drafted.

He then posted a massive season in his 20 year old season:

2015-16London KnightsOHL5952691212756

The one thing I do like about Morrison is his July birthdate. He actually doesn't turn 20 until a couple of weeks from now so while I mention his 20 year old OHL season he really wasn't 20 years old yet.
 

StevenToddIves

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Christian Dvorak is another OHLer who underwhelmed in his 18 year old season:

2013-14London KnightsOHL33681408

However, unlike Morrison he was drafted.

He then posted a massive season in his 20 year old season:

2015-16London KnightsOHL5952691212756

The one thing I do like about Morrison is his July birthdate. He actually doesn't turn 20 until a couple of weeks from now so while I mention his 20 year old OHL season he really wasn't 20 years old yet.
Morrison was young for his initial draft-eligible season, and I was surprised to see him passed over following a promising 23-22-45 season in 59 games for Hamilton. You could see back in 2020 he was a very smart player who had both plus skating and plus skill, but I think many NHL teams may have been put off by his size. I'd guess he was about 5'10-160 back then (listed 6'0-179 now).

Still, it's tough to fathom some of the players who were drafted over Morrison. For the Devils fan, NJ burned a 6th round pick on Benjamin Baumgartner. Sure, drafting is an imperfect art, but it only takes watching Morrison and Baumgartner in one game each to see that Morrison ranks over Baumgartner in literally every scouting category -- he was bigger, faster, smarter, more competitive and featured superior tools in shooting, passing and puckhandling.

Why Baumgartner was drafted at all, much less by my own team, is a question for the ages, but what I'm using him to illustrate is that it's an even bigger mystery why no one drafted Morrison. For the 2021 draft, Morrison fell off the radar due to the cancelled OHL season, which I feel makes his 2021-22 season even more impressive.

As you stated, Morrison's age -- combined with missing last year -- means we can almost discuss him as a draft +1 rather than a draft +2. And also, we need to factor in his post-season -- Morrison has absolutely been tremendous, the very best player in the entirety of the OHL.

I realize this isn't much of a debate, as you also seem to really like Morrison, just maybe not as early as the 2nd round. And to be honest, whether I would draft him at #37 has a lot to do with the context of who else would be available. Would I take him over a falling 18 year old center like Beck or Gaucher? A falling RD like Tristan Luneau? A falling Russian like Perevalov or Trikozov? I'm not sure I would. But all I'm saying is that Logan Morrison certainly has earned a place in the conversation.
 
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StevenToddIves

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I'm going to spend the next couple of weeks hyping up my sleepers. Over the past couple of months, I have become a big-time member of the Sandis Vilmanis fan club. I might be the only person ranking him in my top 100, but I might have him too low. He's got a great mix of size and speed (6'1-195), terrific playmaking and puck skills; he's smart as a whip and hustles like crazy. He's a great pick in the 3rd round and a steal in the 4th or 5th when he is most likely to hear his name called.

 

HobokenIrish

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I'm going to spend the next couple of weeks hyping up my sleepers. Over the past couple of months, I have become a big-time member of the Sandis Vilmanis fan club. I might be the only person ranking him in my top 100, but I might have him too low. He's got a great mix of size and speed (6'1-195), terrific playmaking and puck skills; he's smart as a whip and hustles like crazy. He's a great pick in the 3rd round and a steal in the 4th or 5th when he is most likely to hear his name called.



STI,

You looking at posting one more mock draft before the big night?

Thanks for all of this!!! It is greatly appreciated
 
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StevenToddIves

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STI,

You looking at posting one more mock draft before the big night?

Thanks for all of this!!! It is greatly appreciated
Yup, I'm already at work on my final mock draft, I'm just waiting a bit in case there's a big trade before the draft. I guess I'll go two full rounds.

I've heard Buffalo might make a trade of one of their later 1st rounders for a forward and that Carolina might try to get back into the 1st round, so I'm waiting a bit. But here's a quick top 12 for today:

1 MTL Wright
2 NJ Slafkovsky
3 ARI Cooley
4 SEA Nemec
5 PHI Gauthier
6 CLB Jiricek
7 OTT Geekie
8 DET Kasper
9 BUF Savoie
10 ANH Kemell
11 SJ Korchinski
12 CLB Lambert
 

Guttersniped

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Yup, I'm already at work on my final mock draft, I'm just waiting a bit in case there's a big trade before the draft. I guess I'll go two full rounds.

I've heard Buffalo might make a trade of one of their later 1st rounders for a forward and that Carolina might try to get back into the 1st round, so I'm waiting a bit. But here's a quick top 12 for today:

1 MTL Wright
2 NJ Slafkovsky
3 ARI Cooley
4 SEA Nemec
5 PHI Gauthier
6 CLB Jiricek
7 OTT Geekie
8 DET Kasper
9 BUF Savoie
10 ANH Kemell
11 SJ Korchinski
12 CLB Lambert

What did you hear about Carolina?

They don’t have the picks for it now and they haven’t traded up before.

I guess they might try to get more picks with player trades.

They certainly were active last year trading Bean for 1 2nd and their own 1st for 2 2nds the first day and then they made four pick trades on the second day.

One pick trade on the second day was a 2021 for 2022 3rd pick swap (with Chicago lol) but they turned their own 2nd (which was later than three 2nd they traded for and used themselves) into three picks (3rd, 4th & 5th) and their 4th into two picks (5th & 6th).

Yes, there is some jealousy here.
 

StevenToddIves

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What did you hear about Carolina?

They don’t have the picks for it now and they haven’t traded up before.

I guess they might try to get more picks with player trades.

They certainly were active last year trading Bean for 1 2nd and their own 1st for 2 2nds the first day and then they made four pick trades on the second day.

One pick trade on the second day was a 2021 for 2022 3rd pick swap (with Chicago lol) but they turned their own 2nd (which was later than three 2nd they traded for and used themselves) into three picks (3rd, 4th & 5th) and their 4th into two picks (5th & 6th).

Yes, there is some jealousy here.
My jealousy for Carolina ran out when they signed DeAngelo, a move which may have cost them the Rangers series in the playoffs. But their "accumulate picks and then swing for the fences with the picks" strategy is a lot better than whatever the Devils have employed in the last two years.

But I heard they're shopping Necas and Bear. To me, this is unwise. They should sign Bear and dump DeAngelo, for starters. And they can afford to sign Necas if they can sweeten the pot to find some team to take the last year of that disastrous Jake Gardiner contract. We'll see what they ultimately decide, I guess.
 

My3Sons

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My jealousy for Carolina ran out when they signed DeAngelo, a move which may have cost them the Rangers series in the playoffs. But their "accumulate picks and then swing for the fences with the picks" strategy is a lot better than whatever the Devils have employed in the last two years.

But I heard they're shopping Necas and Bear. To me, this is unwise. They should sign Bear and dump DeAngelo, for starters. And they can afford to sign Necas if they can sweeten the pot to find some team to take the last year of that disastrous Jake Gardiner contract. We'll see what they ultimately decide, I guess.
Carolina's owner has a smartest man in the room approach. He knows better than everyone. He won't pay his GM what a GM normally gets. He got rid of the play by play guy and I'd bet he paid the replacement less. He won't ever draft a defender in the first round. He lets his analytics guys drive contracts which almost cost them Aho, and ultimately probably will, and it cost them Hamilton, which probably isn't good for them over the next four or five years even if they blunted it for one year by outing himself as a crappy owner by signing a homophobic racist (allegedly), and after taking that intellectual approach he ultimately threw that all away to get into a stupid revenge thing with MTL showing that the owner is ultimately petty and emotional despite being so smart and intellectual. They have done a fantastic job drafting, but something tells me they will start trending down as more of their guys hit UFA and they won't pay them on a third contract. You have to pay some guys once you are good, the issue is knowing who to pay and when. Hard to see them keeping Aho when he hits UFA if he demands $10+ mil per for 8 years.
 

StevenToddIves

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McKenzie's list has him at #38. You don't have him in your Top120.

Any comments, why you have 'red flagged' him?
I don't dislike Havelid, but I don't see him as a player I would target. There are a lot of questions I have with him.

Essentially, Havelid is a 5'9-165 defender who is extremely good on his skates, though not an elite-level skater. He possesses great puck skills and plays with an all-offense-all-the-time mindset. The problem is predictable -- not only does his constant chance-taking lead to an untenable amount of chances against, but once in his own zone, Havelid struggles mightily in virtually every aspect of defending.

Simply put, when Havelid's team has the puck he's great; when his team doesn't have the puck he's a liability. Complicating this is the fact that when Havelid has the puck, it's often either a chance for or a chance against, depending on whether he made the right decision that time.

To me, Havelid is playing out of position. Quite simply, he's not a defenseman. He's a forward playing a roamer role up high in the zone, and in his own zone he's pretty nerve-racking.

I think I'd rank Havelid somewhere in the 130-150 range. He's on my radar, but while I'm fine drafting a top-tier offensive defenseman who needs some work defensively, I'm not fine drafting a second-tier offensive defenseman who needs a ton of work defensively.
 

TBF1972

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I don't dislike Havelid, but I don't see him as a player I would target. There are a lot of questions I have with him.

Essentially, Havelid is a 5'9-165 defender who is extremely good on his skates, though not an elite-level skater. He possesses great puck skills and plays with an all-offense-all-the-time mindset. The problem is predictable -- not only does his constant chance-taking lead to an untenable amount of chances against, but once in his own zone, Havelid struggles mightily in virtually every aspect of defending.

Simply put, when Havelid's team has the puck he's great; when his team doesn't have the puck he's a liability. Complicating this is the fact that when Havelid has the puck, it's often either a chance for or a chance against, depending on whether he made the right decision that time.

To me, Havelid is playing out of position. Quite simply, he's not a defenseman. He's a forward playing a roamer role up high in the zone, and in his own zone he's pretty nerve-racking.

I think I'd rank Havelid somewhere in the 130-150 range. He's on my radar, but while I'm fine drafting a top-tier offensive defenseman who needs some work defensively, I'm not fine drafting a second-tier offensive defenseman who needs a ton of work defensively.
thanks a lot for the response.

for me this sounds a lot like
RD Ty Nelson, North Bay OHL undersized all-offense rearguard increases the high-danger scoring chances for both his team and the opposition

with even weaker defensive game
 
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StevenToddIves

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thanks a lot for the response.

for me this sounds a lot like
RD Ty Nelson, North Bay OHL undersized all-offense rearguard increases the high-danger scoring chances for both his team and the opposition

with even weaker defensive game
Nelson is physically stronger than Havelid, and I think he's a tick higher offensively, so I have him ranked a bit higher than Havelid. Still, I have them both ranked lower than the consensus by a long shot. But again -- it's important to look at my rankings with the knowledge that I have a strong bias with defensemen.

I'm fine with an offensive defenseman being suspect defensively if he is an elite offensive generator, like a Quinn Hughes. But in the 2022 draft, players like Nelson and Havelid don't have this type of upside. I gave pretty decent rankings to a couple of defenders who, to me, are similar stylistically but have greater offensive upside in Lane Hutson and Vladimir Grudinin.

But ultimately, it is my firm conviction that in the NHL, you win a lot more with a Brett Pesce than a Shayne Gostisbehere. And this shows in my rankings, with higher-than-normal rankings for ace defensive defenders like Chesley, Koromyslov and Barabosha.

I kind of throw this out the window with offense-first defensemen who have shown the ability to be adequate in their own zone, like Mintyukov and Mateychuk -- those guys are still in my first round rankings, even though they still have more work to do in their defensive play.
 

StevenToddIves

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This is probably my final Logan Morrison post, as Hamilton lost in the Memorial Cup finals to a healthier and better-rested Sant John squad. But Morrison's first-period assist meant he scored in every OHL playoff game and Memorial Cup final game. I don't think we can understate how incredible this feat is, and I'm not sure if it's ever been done before. Maybe @Guttersniped can research it?

Anyway, when we sweat over the "consensus rankings" -- Logan Morrison has been left off most Top 100 lists. Not top 32 or top 64, top 100 -- there are still people who don't see him as a pick in the top 4 rounds. He's 6'0, fast, skilled, an elite playmaker with maybe a top 3 hockey IQ for the entire 2022 class. This is why we should not blindly follow the consensus, but rather do the research and decide for ourselves.

In Logan Morrison's case, I've done a lot of the research for you. This kid is a phenomenal hockey player.
 

My3Sons

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This is probably my final Logan Morrison post, as Hamilton lost in the Memorial Cup finals to a healthier and better-rested Sant John squad. But Morrison's first-period assist meant he scored in every OHL playoff game and Memorial Cup final game. I don't think we can understate how incredible this feat is, and I'm not sure if it's ever been done before. Maybe @Guttersniped can research it?

Anyway, when we sweat over the "consensus rankings" -- Logan Morrison has been left off most Top 100 lists. Not top 32 or top 64, top 100 -- there are still people who don't see him as a pick in the top 4 rounds. He's 6'0, fast, skilled, an elite playmaker with maybe a top 3 hockey IQ for the entire 2022 class. This is why we should not blindly follow the consensus, but rather do the research and decide for ourselves.

In Logan Morrison's case, I've done a lot of the research for you. This kid is a phenomenal hockey player.
He's got really nice short area agility. He had a play where he pivoted quickly with the puck in the slot and got off a nice shot. It was an impressive skill. He looked like a nice two way center to me. He does have a bit of a cerebral pick his spots vibe, which is a criticism guys like Wright and Nico get, but they are also good at creating offense with their smarts even if they aren't always going 100 mph. He looks like a good player even if not quite as dynamic as McTavish looked to me. if he fell to the third I'd have to consider him strongly unless a better RHD was there.
 

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