Prospect Info: 2022 Draft Final STI Rankings -- Top 120

[HughJazz3dg]

Hey Steven,

Appreciate your lists as always! You can tell you put a lot of work into them.

I was curious if you’ve followed up with a lot of your old favourite unappreciated draft gems and if you’d comment on how they’ve developed since their draft year? I have a few just off the top of my head.

Matthew Robertson, Brandt Clarke, Brock Faber, Stanislav Svozil, and Jack Bar.

I understand if this isn’t the right spot for this question, or if you haven’t followed their careers post draft very closely, or if it isn’t even worth your time haha.

But any information would be appreciated!

 

[StevenToddIves]

Chesley is all over the place on different lists. I habe seen him listed as a mid second round pick even???
I habe npot watched him play , only YouTube videos and read an occasional scouting report on him. What’s with the rankings for him? They are all over the place. Is,it that his offence is not as highly projected as others or ?

Button has Chesley at #45 …. Say whaaaaaaaaat

I've written about this at length, and over the course of many seasons. It's important for you folks to keep this in mind for when I actually retire from draft writing.

The reason I have been far more successful in projecting defensemen -- especially defense-first defensemen -- than 95% of draft writers and scouting bureaus for several years is simply because I look at their numbers in context, and actually grade up on certain things other writers grade down on.

The perfect examples of this would be a couple of D who skated for the US-NTDP prior to Chesley in Brock Faber and Jake Sanderson. As it stands, I'd currently rank Chesley in between these two.

I had Jake Sanderson in the top 5 range while other draft writers where ranking him in the #20 overall range. The argument against him, to me, was abject idiocy. It was simple -- people wondered if it was worth taking a D so early who was producing very-good-but-not-great numbers?

The people who argued this were, for the most part, simply too lazy to watch Sanderson enough to look closer than the stats and take the time to understand the context. And the context was this -- Sanderson was extremely defensively responsible, often utilized as the responsible, stay-at-home-guy on his own pairing. That's it. As the season wore on, Sanderson began to realize his elite skating allowed him to take more chances and create more offense, as he was always quick enough to get back and recover. His production grew as the season wore on.

But for people who were too lazy to dig deep? A cursory glance at Sanderson's numbers were enough to decide he wasn't a top 10 pick. As it stands, in a 2020 re-draft, the #5 overall pick would stand a solid chance of going over Lafreniere, Byfield, Raymond and Stutzle at #1 overall.

As for Brock Faber, his skills were plus across the board and he skated extremely well, and entered the 2020 draft as probably the second-best pure defender after only Sanderson. Faber took his shut-down responsibilities seriously, and despite great puck skills and strong passing ability, he was utilized defensively, played conservatively and always took care of his own zone first.

As such, Faber's statistical numbers were not particularly impressive. As such, draft analysts who did not bother watching him, often overlooking him and ranking him as a 3rd or 4th round pick. Two analysts -- myself and Cam Robinson -- went the opposite route, touting him as a 1st round pick. The defense was impeccable, the physicality and compete were obvious, the skills and skating were great, the overall play was outstanding. He was so much better than many of the defensemen routinely ranked above him that it was almost humorous to see -- players who didn't even know what the defensive zone looked like routinely ranked over him like Wallinder, Grans and Poirier.

In a 2020 re-draft, Faber easily goes ahead of all those guys -- likely #20-#30 overall. Meanwhile, the people who ranked him at #107 overall just ignore their mistake saying, well how were we to know? He never put up great numbers! And then they repeat their mistakes, ranking Elias Salomonsson in their top 20 and ranking Ryan Chesley in the 2nd round.

I'm going to stop it here, even though I can literally write a book about how to avoid the hype and noise and find the gem defensemen in any draft. It's not about "tough" or "size" -- both Faber and Chesley are about 6'0 even. It's about knowing the responsibilities of the position, and it's about valuing team play over padding your stats and draft resume by ignoring team need in order to take a litany of high-risk chances regardless of in-game situation.

Ultimately, the NHL teams highly regard players like Ryan Chesley higher than people who think analyzing D prospects means always trying to dig up the next high-scoring later-round pick. Building a winning team depends upon having a strong defense core, and it's not rocket science finding good defensemen in the draft -- young mobile defenders with strong tool kits who play excellent defensively are almost always going to project up successfully to the higher levels.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Hey Steven,

Appreciate your lists as always! You can tell you put a lot of work into them.

I was curious if you’ve followed up with a lot of your old favourite unappreciated draft gems and if you’d comment on how they’ve developed since their draft year? I have a few just off the top of my head.

Matthew Robertson, Brandt Clarke, Brock Faber, Stanislav Svozil, and Jack Bar.

I understand if this isn’t the right spot for this question, or if you haven’t followed their careers post draft very closely, or if it isn’t even worth your time haha.

But any information would be appreciated!

Yes. It's a lot of work haha.

So, as always I greatly appreciate your kind words.

Ok, here's the (too) early verdict on some of my 2021 Draft favorite defensemen.

Jack Bar: His freshman year at Harvard was encouraging in some respects, but overall he still has a lot of work to do. His offensive game completely dried up against higher competition, He was mostly ok defensively, but struggled sometimes vs higher end competition. He's likely got three more years at the NCAA level to improve, but my initial thought he could be an all-situations mid-pairing NHL defenseman has certainly cooled a bit. I think he'll develop into a third-pairing guy, and as such I sorely over-ranked him as a guy worthy of a late 1st-round pick.

Brandt Clarke: my only mistake with Clarke was ranking him maybe one or two slots too high. He's still a top 7 pick in a 2021 re-draft after his 59 point season in 55 OHL games for Barrie. He improved defensively and led his entire team in scoring. He had one major set-back, being left off the Team Canada World Junior Championship team.

Matthew Robertson: Robertson is actually older than the rest of these kids, he was a 2019 pick by the Rangers. I had him ranked in the mid-20s if I recall correctly, which was also in the range of his consensus ranking. I think I slightly over-ranked him, because where I once saw him as a shut-down, mid-pairing defender with some offensive pop, I now see him as more of a bottom-pairing defense-first type at the NHL level. He'll definitely make the big show -- he's 6'4 and mobile, good with the puck and was extremely solid this year for Hartford of the AHL. Again, I'd say I slightly over-ranked him, I think in a 2019 re-draft he goes around where the Rangers took him in the mid-2nd round.

Stanislav Svozil: This is the one guy of this quartet I absolutely nailed it on. He was outstanding this year for Regina in the WHL, both with his phenomenal defensive play and his higher-than-expected offensive production. I think he'll at least be an all-situations mid-pairing guy in the NHL with some top-pairing upside. I still can't believe he fell to the 3rd round. In a 2021 re-draft he likely goes in the late 1st round, around where I ranked him. I'm guessing his draft-day fall had something to do with a lack of respect for Czech/Slovak players, something certain to evaporate pretty damned quick after a 2022 draft featuring Slafkovsky, Jiricek and Nemec in the top 7 picks and Mesar, Kulich and Sykora in the top 2 rounds.

 

[HughJazz3dg]

Yes. It's a lot of work haha.

So, as always I greatly appreciate your kind words.

Ok, here's the (too) early verdict on some of my 2021 Draft favorite defensemen.

Jack Bar: His freshman year at Harvard was encouraging in some respects, but overall he still has a lot of work to do. His offensive game completely dried up against higher competition, He was mostly ok defensively, but struggled sometimes vs higher end competition. He's likely got three more years at the NCAA level to improve, but my initial thought he could be an all-situations mid-pairing NHL defenseman has certainly cooled a bit. I think he'll develop into a third-pairing guy, and as such I sorely over-ranked him as a guy worthy of a late 1st-round pick.

Brandt Clarke: my only mistake with Clarke was ranking him maybe one or two slots too high. He's still a top 7 pick in a 2021 re-draft after his 59 point season in 55 OHL games for Barrie. He improved defensively and led his entire team in scoring. He had one major set-back, being left off the Team Canada World Junior Championship team.

Matthew Robertson: Robertson is actually older than the rest of these kids, he was a 2019 pick by the Rangers. I had him ranked in the mid-20s if I recall correctly, which was also in the range of his consensus ranking. I think I slightly over-ranked him, because where I once saw him as a shut-down, mid-pairing defender with some offensive pop, I now see him as more of a bottom-pairing defense-first type at the NHL level. He'll definitely make the big show -- he's 6'4 and mobile, good with the puck and was extremely solid this year for Hartford of the AHL. Again, I'd say I slightly over-ranked him, I think in a 2019 re-draft he goes around where the Rangers took him in the mid-2nd round.

Stanislav Svozil: This is the one guy of this quartet I absolutely nailed it on. He was outstanding this year for Regina in the WHL, both with his phenomenal defensive play and his higher-than-expected offensive production. I think he'll at least be an all-situations mid-pairing guy in the NHL with some top-pairing upside. I still can't believe he fell to the 3rd round. In a 2021 re-draft he likely goes in the late 1st round, around where I ranked him. I'm guessing his draft-day fall had something to do with a lack of respect for Czech/Slovak players, something certain to evaporate pretty damned quick after a 2022 draft featuring Slafkovsky, Jiricek and Nemec in the top 7 picks and Mesar, Kulich and Sykora in the top 2 rounds.

Appreciate it! Always love it when I see draft writers stick out their necks for certain prospects, was just curious how you felt they were doing.

Thanks!

 

[Xirik]

Chesley won't last until the 2nd round. I'd be surprised if he lasts until #20 overall. He's the best defensive D in the draft, he's physical, he's incredibly smart and he can blast the puck.

Rinzel is a serious wild card for the 2022 draft. He could go in the #20 overall range, or he could drop until the NJ #69 pick in the 3rd round. His mix of size and speed -- plus the fact he's a RD -- will entice teams hoping to catch lightning in a bottle, but he's also not a safe pick because no one knows how he will perform against higher competition or how his defensive game will look in two years. As a Devils guy, I'd be willing to swing for the fences at #37 on this guy, for sure.

Warren should be around at #37 overall. But he's also 6'5, skates very well and as physical as any defender in the draft. Where he goes in the draft is probably dependent on what teams are prioritizing on draft day, because he's unlikely to ever be a go-to guy in transition or a big point collector. I'd say there's a chance of his falling to the #69 pick in Round 3, but the smart money is on Warren being drafted somewhere in the mid-to-late 2nd round. As such, he'd also be a smart pick for the Devils at #37, but we have to ask if there won't be some players available at that spot with huge upside.

The RD question is a big reason why I have been strongly advocating the Devils trading for another 2nd round pick. It would be great to use #37 on a swing-for-the-moon high-upside F like Perevalov/Trikozov/Firkus or a surefire depth C like Beck/Morrison/Morrison and then have another pick in the round to fill the obvious organizational need at RD.

*cough* Barabossa *cough*

 

[StevenToddIves]

*cough* Barabossa *cough*

I am pretty confident Barabosha will last until the 3rd round and possibly even the 4th. We have to factor in not only the lack of statistics with him, but also the New Russian Factor -- the situation in Ukraine is very likely to drop many Russians down even more than normal in draft rankings. Although I'd be fine with picking Barabosha in the 2nd, I'd prefer to wait later and hope he's still on the board.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Appreciate it! Always love it when I see draft writers stick out their necks for certain prospects, was just curious how you felt they were doing.

Thanks!

Well, you've got to stick your neck out sometimes. Sometimes it works out and sometimes it doesn't, but you need to be able to explain your ranking decisions with conviction and detail.

In three years, my 2022 defensemen rankings will be seriously dependent on how I look for my anomalously high rankings of Chesley, Koromyslov, Barabosha, Warren, Hamara and Mastodomenico and anomalously low rankings of Nelson, Salomonsson and Lamoureux. That's just how it works in this business.

 

[StevenToddIves]

If @StevenToddIves has read the tea leaves correctly, which is likely, there will be first round talent Russian prospect available. If a player with first round talent falls to NJ's pick that is likely the guy to take. If not, a few of his first round grade prospects will fall most likely. Owen Beck seems like a good choice there. I'd be excited if Chesley fell that far but he seems to be a consensus mid-first type guy so he probably doesn't make it to NJ in the second round. As a rule, I'd prefer as many right defenders as they can grab this draft so I do like your thoughts on this.

Again, the #37 pick will have a high-upside talent available because of other-team preference and the inherent numbers game of the NHL Draft.

Last year, the Devils picked in the same neighborhood, at #29 overall. They went with "team preference", passing on the high upside options of RD Scott Morrow, C Aatu Raty and RW Logan Stankoven for a grinder winger in Chase Stillman. In retrospect, this does not seem like the wisest possible decision, or even remotely close.

This year, the Devils cannot repeat the mistake. We still don't know who will fall or exactly why, but we must face the possibility that a high-upside Russian like Perevalov or Trikozov could fall. There is also the possibility that a possible answer for a long-term center behind Hughes/Hischier could be the pick here -- Beck, Gaucher, Morrison and Ostlund are all possibilities.

As far as RD goes, as desperate as we all are -- myself included -- to fill the gaping organizational hole, I don't start slotting them up my rankings until Round 3. The #2 and #37 picks are far too valuable to be over-emphasizing positional need over talent level and ability. And, as I keep saying, I'd love to see Fitzgerald pick up an additional 2nd round pick on draft day to help the Devils in this crucial 2022 draft.

 

[StevenToddIves]

finally had a chance to get through the full list, once again excellent work @StevenToddIves. had a couple players i wanted to ask/talk about:

-any input on buchelnikov? haven't seen you mention him here or in your writeups. just barely an overager (~10 days older than kyrou) who features some elite offensive tools and is not afraid to engage physically/defensively. size, strength, and quality of competition might be a concern here, but i do feel he deserves a decent nod

-i look forward to rushing to twitter with you to defend the team that inevitably picks chesley in the teens. rock solid defensively, one of the best goal scorers from the point the NTDP has ever seen, and i still hold out hope that the offensive level he's always displayed up until this particular season is explainable by having been coached to play a much more conservative role while paired with hutson

-i appreciate your downranking of lamoureux in comparison to where you had him in your spring rankings (as cruel as that may sound to the kid lol). i understand the appeal of what he could be, but i always felt the puck skills were severely lagging behind, which could really limit what he becomes

-would you mind expanding upon your kulonummi ranking? was it just a numbers game for him? i feel like there's pretty good value in someone who skates that smoothly while still making sure to take care of his own end. i remember your writeup being fairly complimentary even if it wasn't glowing. i guess he falls into that luneau-archetype of just being a good, steady defender without anything that majorly stands out, but i'm surprised there wasn't a place for him above 118

-thank you for having a guy like adam ingram that low (lol) i've gotten flak for my placement of him and even beyond your skating concerns i've found his reads, compete, and just general interest in the game to all be wildly inconsistent and troubling. a locked on senators video i was watching summed him up better than i could've: he plays offense not hockey

-spencer sova definitely had a bad season, and i can't contest him not being included here. but, what would you say your level of optimism on him is? i can't help but feel there's still something there. i don't know if i can pinpoint why it didn't click this year, but from the skating, to the reads, to the positioning, physicality, offensive potential, etc. there's nothing that's raising a flag for me that either isn't there or can't be fixed. maybe just intermittent engagement? conditioning problems? in fairness, i went back to your writeup and you did mention you thought he had a decent amount of NHL upside. i feel like a guy like hunter haight could be in the same boat here

-your reads on guys like cutter gauthier, jiri kulich, logan morrison, etc. were all there WELL in advance of most others getting on the hype train, so i wanna make sure i compliment your calls on a lot of them

thank you again, STI, i'll look forward to sharing my own top 100 in the coming weeks. would you be looking for them to be posted in here, or is that more for the other draft threads? don't wanna jack any of your luster lol

Great post but whoooo boy are you putting me to work here.

I'm going to do this a piece at a time, because there's a lot here. First, we'll start with Dmitri Buchelnikov -- a 5'9 over-aged right-shot RW who tore it up with a 41-34-75 line in just 56 games for SKA-1946 St. Petersburg of the MHL.

He's a good call on your part. I'm usually a bit slow to write up over-agers, but on closer look I should have been paying more attention to him like a first-time eligible since he just missed the 2022 class by mere days with a 9/6/03 birthdate.

Buchelnikov is also overlooked because he's a small winger without elite skating. I'd say he's a good skater whose speed plays up because he plays with pace, with quick thinking and quicker hands, good agility and the ability to handle the puck at high levels even at top speeds. He's a shoot first winger with a high-level shot, but he's also a very adept passer, though I'd be remiss in saying he was a high-vision type playmaker. I like his compete and IQ, though his play off the puck certainly needs work.

But the fact is, Buchelnikov can certainly generate offense at a far higher level than many players likely to be drafted ahead of him in the 2022 draft. There is some risk here, but certainly a great deal of reward, which I would say makes Dmitri Buchelnikov a very good pick anywhere from the 4th round on.

 

[StevenToddIves]

finally had a chance to get through the full list, once again excellent work @StevenToddIves. had a couple players i wanted to ask/talk about:

-i look forward to rushing to twitter with you to defend the team that inevitably picks chesley in the teens. rock solid defensively, one of the best goal scorers from the point the NTDP has ever seen, and i still hold out hope that the offensive level he's always displayed up until this particular season is explainable by having been coached to play a much more conservative role while paired with hutson

-i appreciate your downranking of lamoureux in comparison to where you had him in your spring rankings (as cruel as that may sound to the kid lol). i understand the appeal of what he could be, but i always felt the puck skills were severely lagging behind, which could really limit what he becomes

Okay, part two of my reply to you centers on a couple of RD.

I absolutely agree with you on Chesley. The guy has an immense shot and very good passing skills, and his offensive production was certainly impacted by a pairing with 5'9 offensive wizard Lane Hutson and his team-first commitment to defense-first play.

This is quite simply the most idiotic reason to down-rank a defenseman imaginable. It's why people missed the boat on Sanderson, Faber and Seider and it's why people are missing the boat on Chesley. If Chesley had precisely the same skill set and was playing in Swedish J20 and completely eschewing team-play to pile up points at any available opportunity, he'd likely be ranked top 20 by all the people pushing him back to the 2nd round in their rankings.

I'm not sure why people up-rank defensemen due to poor defense and selfish play, but it's done all the time. I'm going to come right out and say that if you're ranking Ty Nelson or Elias Salomonsson higher than Ryan Chesley, you simply have no idea of what makes a good NHL defenseman, no idea at all.

Lamoureux is a different case. He's all about potential, and you're almost entirely eschewing his performance on both sides of the puck. As a 6'7 defender who skates extremely well and loves to hit everything in sight, you kind of need to imagine what he will become after a half decade of development. Initially, I saw what all of his supporters saw -- a guy who can cover half the defensive zone at once and intimidate. As such, I initially ranked him as an early 2nd round pick.

Recently, I revisited Lamoureux -- as I did with all the prospects in order to write my Final 2022 Draft Rankings. With notoriously big or small players, I always try to ask myself a crucial question of: how would I rank this kid if he were average sized? Naturally, I do not want to overlook a 5'9 forward for dumb reasons or over-rank a 6'5 defenseman for stupid, superficial reasons. It's why I had very high rankings for Brayden Point and Cole Caufield and very low rankings for William Wallinder and Helge Grans. Quite simply, a 6'0 Caulfield would have gone in the top 5 overall and a 6'0 Wallinder would have likely gone undrafted altogether.

With Lamoureux, I was very troubled by some of his lack of fundamental hockey abilities. Watching him try to corral pucks and make simple outlet plays sometimes made me think I was watching a third-pairing defender on a USHS junior varsity team. Some of the fundamentals are just really low-end. Though I still gave Lamoureux a 3rd round ranking based on his obvious strengths, the more I watched him the more I realized that this was a player whose singular greatest asset was size and size alone. So, I was forced to drop him below all-around superior RD like Barabosha, Warren, Mastodomenico and Casey (etc.).

 

[oxman44]

Matthew Robertson: Robertson is actually older than the rest of these kids, he was a 2019 pick by the Rangers. I had him ranked in the mid-20s if I recall correctly, which was also in the range of his consensus ranking. I think I slightly over-ranked him, because where I once saw him as a shut-down, mid-pairing defender with some offensive pop, I now see him as more of a bottom-pairing defense-first type at the NHL level. He'll definitely make the big show -- he's 6'4 and mobile, good with the puck and was extremely solid this year for Hartford of the AHL. Again, I'd say I slightly over-ranked him, I think in a 2019 re-draft he goes around where the Rangers took him in the mid-2nd round.

I really Liked Robertson that year as well. I was miffed we traded our early second for Subban because there was lots of talent that slipped into the second that year. I really thought we had a chance to snag Robertson at #55 before we traded down to get Ohoktyiuk but was very bummed to see the rangers grab him about 5 picks before us.

On a different note, Pronman Just released a fun 2 round mock along side an NHL scout, and they had us Taking Tristan Luneau at #37. Judging by your list I assume you'd think those terms would be acceptable? How would you line up the RHD that will realistically be available @ 37 for us if we decide to go that route?

 

[StevenToddIves]

finally had a chance to get through the full list, once again excellent work @StevenToddIves. had a couple players i wanted to ask/talk about:

-would you mind expanding upon your kulonummi ranking? was it just a numbers game for him? i feel like there's pretty good value in someone who skates that smoothly while still making sure to take care of his own end. i remember your writeup being fairly complimentary even if it wasn't glowing. i guess he falls into that luneau-archetype of just being a good, steady defender without anything that majorly stands out, but i'm surprised there wasn't a place for him above 118

Ok, now for Kulonummi, which I'm sure both you and @Guttersniped are waiting to hear about.

Kasper Kulonummi is a player who I have liked from the get-go. As such, I wouldn't get too hung up on whether I'm ranking a guy #100 or #119. If the Devils took Kulonummi int he 3rd round, I would not be upset in the least.

Kulonummi is a player I like because his finest tool is his hockey IQ and a player who I have simultaneously tempered my expectations for because his finest tool is his hockey IQ. Though this might sound contradictory and confusing, it's really not.

Kulonummi is a guy I'd really want on my third-pairing, because he is smart and plays the game right and with great effort in all three zones. But he also lacks a singular high-end tool, or the size or high-end skating to ever be a feature defender either offensively or defensively on an NHL blueline.

So what I'm saying is he's the prototypical high-floor, moderate-ceiling all-purpose defender. In this sense, he's comparable to a Tristan Luneau, except Luneau has slightly higher skills pretty much across the board.

Let's say the Devils are drafting in the 3rd round and looking RD and my high-ranked available RDs are Lamoureux (#74), Salomonsson (#111), Leddy (#116), Kulonummi (#118), Healey (#120), Anderson (#122) and Havelid (#123). I wouldn't mind going Kulonummi here, because I think he has the highest floor of all these players, and I feel the Devils desperately need RD who can challenge for an NHL role in 3-4 years. I don't simply look at the number ranking sometimes, especially later in the draft.

But conversely, there's no way I'm drafting Kulonummi if a Barabosha, Mastrodomenico or Fisher are still on the board. Barabosha and Mastrodomenico have floors to match Kulonummi with higher ceilings, and while Fisher has a precarious floor, the ceiling is pretty tremendous.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I really Liked Robertson that year as well. I was miffed we traded our early second for Subban because there was lots of talent that slipped into the second that year. I really thought we had a chance to snag Robertson at #55 before we traded down to get Ohoktyiuk but was very bummed to see the rangers grab him about 5 picks before us.

On a different note, Pronman Just released a fun 2 round mock along side an NHL scout, and they had us Taking Tristan Luneau at #37. Judging by your list I assume you'd think those terms would be acceptable? How would you line up the RHD that will realistically be available @ 37 for us if we decide to go that route?

I'd give Luneau a sub-50% chance of being available at #37, but he'd be a perfect pick for the Devils in that spot. I mean, we're talking a 6'2-190 RD who plays extremely well in every aspect of the game and produces offense. Coming out of the first two rounds of the draft with Slafkovsky and Luneau would be an absolutely coup for the Devils, there's no doubt.

I was also upset the Devils missed on Robertson, but to be perfectly honest I'd rank Okhotyuk slightly higher right now. It's tough to complain about the NJ 2019 draft, because the Devils just did a phenomenal job. We can only hope the 2022 draft comes even close.

 

[StevenToddIves]

finally had a chance to get through the full list, once again excellent work @StevenToddIves. had a couple players i wanted to ask/talk about:

-thank you for having a guy like adam ingram that low (lol) i've gotten flak for my placement of him and even beyond your skating concerns i've found his reads, compete, and just general interest in the game to all be wildly inconsistent and troubling. a locked on senators video i was watching summed him up better than i could've: he plays offense not hockey

-spencer sova definitely had a bad season, and i can't contest him not being included here. but, what would you say your level of optimism on him is? i can't help but feel there's still something there. i don't know if i can pinpoint why it didn't click this year, but from the skating, to the reads, to the positioning, physicality, offensive potential, etc. there's nothing that's raising a flag for me that either isn't there or can't be fixed. maybe just intermittent engagement? conditioning problems? in fairness, i went back to your writeup and you did mention you thought he had a decent amount of NHL upside. i feel like a guy like hunter haight could be in the same boat here

-your reads on guys like cutter gauthier, jiri kulich, logan morrison, etc. were all there WELL in advance of most others getting on the hype train, so i wanna make sure i compliment your calls on a lot of them

thank you again, STI, i'll look forward to sharing my own top 100 in the coming weeks. would you be looking for them to be posted in here, or is that more for the other draft threads? don't wanna jack any of your luster lol

Alright, I'll try to answer the rest of this.

Yeah, Adam Ingram has borderline 1st-round talent and produces points. But it takes more than that to be successful at the NHL level, and Ingram's 200-foot game and compete level have both been alarmingly in need of improvement thus far. You'll notice I put him back-to-back with Suzdalev, another player with high-end skill but a litany of problems with his two-way play and consistency of effort. I felt comfortable ranking both of them at the end of the 3rd round -- because their high talent deems them worthy of attention, but their intangibles scream buyer beware.

As for Spencer Sova, his consistency of solid skills across the board, good skating and size led me to give him an "honorable mention" rating for the draft, but I did not include him in my top 120. I think I'd consider him in the 5th round or later, but I don't see any singular skill which lends itself to a top-4 future and as such I'd say he's a 5/6 ceiling guy without a particular calling card. Do I like him? Yes. Do I think there will be better RDs available in the first 5-6 rounds? Also, yes.

Ok, I think I've answered everything here. Thanks again for the kind words.

I'm pretty proud of some of the things I've accomplished this year. In addition to Gauthier, Kulich and Morrison, I'd have to say I was touting Adam Sykora as a borderline 1st round worthy guy when no one else had him in their top 100, and now he's also getting some serious love in the scouting community. I feel Reid Schaefer is another guy I was seriously hyping who is getting some big-time attention now. I'm hopeful some other of "my guys" start gaining some draft day buzz, like Seminoff, Mastrodomenico, Jonsson, Rohrer, Petrovsky, Nguyen, Vilmanis, etc. My very favorite thing about draft-analysis is championing a sleeper who turns into a good NHL player -- there's really nothing more gratifying.

I'm really psyched for your top 100 list and will give you the singular hint of: "watch more Nguyen and Vilmanis tape". Those two are still being sorely overlooked by everyone.

 

[Guttersniped]

Okay, part two of my reply to you centers on a couple of RD.

I absolutely agree with you on Chesley. The guy has an immense shot and very good passing skills, and his offensive production was certainly impacted by a pairing with 5'9 offensive wizard Lane Hutson and his team-first commitment to defense-first play.

This is quite simply the most idiotic reason to down-rank a defenseman imaginable. It's why people missed the boat on Sanderson, Faber and Seider and it's why people are missing the boat on Chesley. If Chesley had precisely the same skill set and was playing in Swedish J20 and completely eschewing team-play to pile up points at any available opportunity, he'd likely be ranked top 20 by all the people pushing him back to the 2nd round in their rankings.

I'm not sure why people up-rank defensemen due to poor defense and selfish play, but it's done all the time. I'm going to come right out and say that if you're ranking Ty Nelson or Elias Salomonsson higher than Ryan Chesley, you simply have no idea of what makes a good NHL defenseman, no idea at all.

Lamoureux is a different case. He's all about potential, and you're almost entirely eschewing his performance on both sides of the puck. As a 6'7 defender who skates extremely well and loves to hit everything in sight, you kind of need to imagine what he will become after a half decade of development. Initially, I saw what all of his supporters saw -- a guy who can cover half the defensive zone at once and intimidate. As such, I initially ranked him as an early 2nd round pick.

Recently, I revisited Lamoureux -- as I did with all the prospects in order to write my Final 2022 Draft Rankings. With notoriously big or small players, I always try to ask myself a crucial question of: how would I rank this kid if he were average sized? Naturally, I do not want to overlook a 5'9 forward for dumb reasons or over-rank a 6'5 defenseman for stupid, superficial reasons. It's why I had very high rankings for Brayden Point and Cole Caufield and very low rankings for William Wallinder and Helge Grans. Quite simply, a 6'0 Caulfield would have gone in the top 5 overall and a 6'0 Wallinder would have likely gone undrafted altogether.

With Lamoureux, I was very troubled by some of his lack of fundamental hockey abilities. Watching him try to corral pucks and make simple outlet plays sometimes made me think I was watching a third-pairing defender on a USHS junior varsity team. Some of the fundamentals are just really low-end. Though I still gave Lamoureux a 3rd round ranking based on his obvious strengths, the more I watched him the more I realized that this was a player whose singular greatest asset was size and size alone. So, I was forced to drop him below all-around superior RD like Barabosha, Warren, Mastodomenico and Casey (etc.).

“Though I still gave Lamoureux a 3rd round ranking based on his obvious strengths”

Such as throwing young girls in ponds and fighting off angry village mobs armed with torches & pitchforks.

 

[ninetyeight]

Brandt Clarke: my only mistake with Clarke was ranking him maybe one or two slots too high. He's still a top 7 pick in a 2021 re-draft after his 59 point season in 55 OHL games for Barrie. He improved defensively and led his entire team in scoring. He had one major set-back, being left off the Team Canada World Junior Championship team.

Would you say "only" 59 points in 55 games is a bit disappointment compared to what Power, Hughes and Edvinsson have done? Doesn't seem to have improved that much in two years since his last OHL season. Also considering him and Nemec are both offensive heavy Dmen that played in the Slovakian league, how would you compare their seasons there? Nemec obviously has way more points, is he also projected to be that much better than Clarke or are there other areas Clarke can compete with (or beat) Nemec? I also feel it might be harder to gauge improvements in his defensive game when he jumped back to weaker competition.

I remember Clarke being one of the guys that a lot of people here (myself included) were also contemplating for the Devils pick last year, but at least now it seems like they made the right decision with Hughes even without the Jack connection.

 

[evnted]

Alright, I'll try to answer the rest of this.

Yeah, Adam Ingram has borderline 1st-round talent and produces points. But it takes more than that to be successful at the NHL level, and Ingram's 200-foot game and compete level have both been alarmingly in need of improvement thus far. You'll notice I put him back-to-back with Suzdalev, another player with high-end skill but a litany of problems with his two-way play and consistency of effort. I felt comfortable ranking both of them at the end of the 3rd round -- because their high talent deems them worthy of attention, but their intangibles scream buyer beware.

As for Spencer Sova, his consistency of solid skills across the board, good skating and size led me to give him an "honorable mention" rating for the draft, but I did not include him in my top 120. I think I'd consider him in the 5th round or later, but I don't see any singular skill which lends itself to a top-4 future and as such I'd say he's a 5/6 ceiling guy without a particular calling card. Do I like him? Yes. Do I think there will be better RDs available in the first 5-6 rounds? Also, yes.

Ok, I think I've answered everything here. Thanks again for the kind words.

I'm pretty proud of some of the things I've accomplished this year. In addition to Gauthier, Kulich and Morrison, I'd have to say I was touting Adam Sykora as a borderline 1st round worthy guy when no one else had him in their top 100, and now he's also getting some serious love in the scouting community. I feel Reid Schaefer is another guy I was seriously hyping who is getting some big-time attention now. I'm hopeful some other of "my guys" start gaining some draft day buzz, like Seminoff, Mastrodomenico, Jonsson, Rohrer, Petrovsky, Nguyen, Vilmanis, etc. My very favorite thing about draft-analysis is championing a sleeper who turns into a good NHL player -- there's really nothing more gratifying.

I'm really psyched for your top 100 list and will give you the singular hint of: "watch more Nguyen and Vilmanis tape". Those two are still being sorely overlooked by everyone.

thank you again for the responses, your insight and dedication to providing such complete answers are invaluable to this community. i had to make sure i still kept you busy now that your final rankings were posted

good calls on those two prospects, nguyen i loosely had on my radar but vilmanis is a new one i'll have to check out. no matter how early i start with prospect rankings i'm never fully prepared for the final couple weeks of crunch time lol

 

[StevenToddIves]

“Though I still gave Lamoureux a 3rd round ranking based on his obvious strengths”

Such as throwing young girls in ponds and fighting off angry village mobs armed with torches & pitchforks.

Well, generally speaking I'd say Lamoureux is as far away from his ultimate capability as anyone in my top 120 list. To me, this means the likelihood of his reaching his ultimate potential has to be considered a long shot. Conversely, his aforementioned "ultimate potential" is still pretty significant, so it's worth ranking him. I may have gone a bit too high at #74, but I suppose we can revisit this 5 years down the line. Either way, my ranking of Lamoureux is not only far below the general consensus, but also far below where he is likely to actually be drafted.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Would you say "only" 59 points in 55 games is a bit disappointment compared to what Power, Hughes and Edvinsson have done? Doesn't seem to have improved that much in two years since his last OHL season. Also considering him and Nemec are both offensive heavy Dmen that played in the Slovakian league, how would you compare their seasons there? Nemec obviously has way more points, is he also projected to be that much better than Clarke or are there other areas Clarke can compete with (or beat) Nemec? I also feel it might be harder to gauge improvements in his defensive game when he jumped back to weaker competition.

I remember Clarke being one of the guys that a lot of people here (myself included) were also contemplating for the Devils pick last year, but at least now it seems like they made the right decision with Hughes even without the Jack connection.

Luke Hughes was clearly the right pick over Brandt Clarke. This is not a slight on Clarke -- because looking back at the 2021 draft, Luke Hughes was the right call over anyone with the possible exceptions of Power or Beniers. And "possible" is the operative word, because the argument can certainly be made that Luke should have gone #1 overall.

Right now -- and this is a very interesting comparison on your part so thank you -- I would rate Nemec over Clarke. To make it simple and avoid a lengthy explanation, Nemec is a better skater and he's better defensively.

In terms of comparing Clarke to the 2021 top D, I'd say his offensive numbers were far less impressive than Luke Hughes, notably less impressive than Power, but still more impressive than Edvinsson. However, I'd now rank Edvinsson above Clarke because his defensive play and physicality are outstanding, and Clarke is average in those respects. The name of Clarke's game is offense, and he needs to produce a lot to be considered successful.

 

[LeedsMonster]

1- Juray Slafkovsky
2- Elias Salomonsson
3- Devin Kaplan
3- Ivan Zhigalov
4- Kirill Dolzhenkov
5- Joshua Niedermayer

 

[StevenToddIves]

1- Juray Slafkovsky
2- Elias Salomonsson
3- Devin Kaplan
3- Ivan Zhigalov
4- Kirill Dolzhenkov
5- Joshua Niedermayer

Is this your Devils mock draft? Because if we took Salomonsson in the 2nd round, I'd be very sad.

 

[LeedsMonster]

Is this your Devils mock draft? Because if we took Salomonsson in the 2nd round, I'd be very sad.

Really? Dont think he's worth a 2nd? Is there a RD around our slot who's more to your liking?

 

[youryeah]

reid schaefer's rankings are all over the place.

Ranked #102 by ELITEPROSPECTS.COM
Ranked #79 by TSN/BOB McKENZIE
Ranked #64 by MCKEEN'S HOCKEY
Ranked #21 by TSN/CRAIG BUTTON
Ranked #31 by NHL CENTRAL SCOUTING (NA Skaters)
Ranked #97 by DRAFT PROSPECTS HOCKEY
Ranked #55 by SMAHT SCOUTING

I really want him in the 3rd round but that seems like wishful thinking.

worthy of our 2nd round pick STI? RD also a big priority obviously and find it unlikely fitz will wait until the 3rd round to address the defense unless there's a slam dunk BPA available in the 2nd

 

[StevenToddIves]

thank you again for the responses, your insight and dedication to providing such complete answers are invaluable to this community. i had to make sure i still kept you busy now that your final rankings were posted

good calls on those two prospects, nguyen i loosely had on my radar but vilmanis is a new one i'll have to check out. no matter how early i start with prospect rankings i'm never fully prepared for the final couple weeks of crunch time lol

Sandis Vilmanis... look out!

 

[StevenToddIves]

Really? Dont think he's worth a 2nd? Is there a RD around our slot who's more to your liking?

There's no way on earth I use a 2nd round pick on Salomonsson. Here's my RD rankings:

Tier 1:
1 Jiricek
2 Nemec

Tier 2:
3 Chesley

Tier 3:
4 Luneau
5 Rinzel
6 Barabosha
7 Warren
8 Mastrodomenico
9 Casey

Tier 4:
10 Fisher

Tier 5:
11 Lamoureux
12 Nelson
13 Salomonsson
14 Kulonummi
15 Leddy
16 Healey
17 Anderson
18 Havelid

I'm not sure I'd take Salomonsson at all. His athleticism is incredible, but you can't watch him without questioning his compete level, hockey IQ and team ethic. I ranked him in my top 120 because based on skill-set alone, he might be on the same level as Nemec. But I'm not sure we'll ever know, because his intangibles are so far below what you'd want from a player of his natural ability.

With players like this, my motto is buyer beware. When that player is a defenseman? My motto is let someone else worry about it.

At the top of my "Tier 5" I bunched together three RD who all have first round talent but really have not remotely figured out how to play hockey yet -- Lamoureux, Nelson and Salomonsson. Lamoureux is probably furthest down fundamentally on my entire top 120 list, while Nelson seems bored by actually defending and is always leaving position and responsibility to try to make a big hit or big highlight reel play. Salomonsson is a virtual turnover machine who doesn't seem to pay attention to game situation -- if he's gonna rush, he's gonna rush.

To be honest, I think I'd draft Kulonummi, Leddy or Healey before any of those three. The higher ranked trio is just there on the basis of potential.