2022 Draft Discussion (after the trade)

[Statto]

I'd really like to see Byfield getting top 6 minutes. That's all I want. Work Turcotte into the mix too. Danault, while he is very valuable, is not a top 6 center. Just saying.

I agree with the first two points (in terms of more equitable minutes for Byfield) but Danault definitely played like a top 6 C last year. I’m not sure how you otherwise define it. He put up points, played great defensively and was out best player for long periods especially when it counted down the stretch.

 

[cyclones22]

I agree with the first two points (in terms of more equitable minutes for Byfield) but Danault definitely played like a top 6 C last year. I’m not sure how you otherwise define it. He put up points, played great defensively and was out best player for long periods especially when it counted down the stretch.

Byfield needs to be getting at least 14+ minutes of TOI a game. But more importantly, it has to be with good linemates. Toffoli basically played 13 to 14 minutes of TOI his first 2 seasons. But his training wheels were Mike Richards and Jeff Carter. It's the quality of the minutes that matter too. Imagine getting 12 minutes of TOI but it's with a washed-up Dustin Brown and a freelancing anti-team philosophy AA? When Kopi was paired with Brown his metrics took a good drop. When Danault was paired with AA his metrics were still above water but took a massive drop compared to his typical linemates. Our 2 best centers couldn't elevate those guys, but our 19-year-old center should be expected to? Like I've said, you don't slot your top forward prospect with your least effective forwards and expect him to succeed.

 

[Master Yoda]

Also... sometimes I write out these really long researched takes where I'm looking stuff up and rewriting things to be polite but also direct and then this voice in the back of my head goes off and says

what are you doing? why would you do this? you won't change any opinions and if you say the wrong thing or say the right thing in the wrong way you could get in trouble. delete his and shut up and leave it be.

And that's usually what I do.

So... ya know... I'm a crazy person what can I tell you.

You should just create a second account and post all your personal/private thoughts so you don't get in trouble. Just make sure you're posting with the correct account. We promise we won't tell anyone.

 

[DoktorJeep]

You should just create a second account and post all your personal/private thoughts so you don't get in trouble. Just make sure you're posting with the correct account. We promise we won't tell anyone.

RIP LGK.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Also... sometimes I write out these really long researched takes where I'm looking stuff up and rewriting things to be polite but also direct and then this voice in the back of my head goes off and says

what are you doing? why would you do this? you won't change any opinions and if you say the wrong thing or say the right thing in the wrong way you could get in trouble. delete his and shut up and leave it be.

And that's usually what I do.

So... ya know... I'm a crazy person what can I tell you.

Just sounds like you fit right in here!

 

[King'sPawn]

I've said it many times over many years lately. I'll try to summarize my concerns one more time and try not to be annoying by discussing it further.

Regarding the development vs. scouting vs. expectations.
- I agree there are sometimes unrealistic expectations put on first round picks. I try to show patience for all picks on an individual basis, based on different contexts and experiences
- My concern is with the aggregate of data of all picks, and the philosophy of letting prospects marinate every year.

By itself, I think there is a LOT of value in having many prospects marinate and work their way up. Mostly because they typically don't have the skillset to make immediate impacts at higher levels. I think this is also viable for first round picks. Again. Context is important.

However, there is ALSO value in opportunity and empowerment. It just fits some people and players better. I don't think every prospect should be thrown in a top line role, just like I don't think every prospect should spend multiple seasons in a bottom-six role to "earn" their way (and by this definition, "earn" means to "wait until someone gets injured and you can play in his role for a brief stint").

Developmentally, there are questions about how the Kings prepare players for top-six roles. These are the players who ended up playing in a top-six capacity in the NHL on a regular (or recent) basis, since Dean Lombardi took over:
Tyler Toffoli
Tanner Pearson
Wayne Simmonds
Brayden Schenn
Dominik Kubalik
Adrian Kempe

That's six players in a 16-year span. 3 firsts, 2 seconds, and a seventh. That doesn't even include the fact that Simmonds and Kubalik spent zero time in the AHL.

For the purpose of this exercise, I didn't include Alex Iafallo as he signed as a free agent and played in the NHL right away. However, if you want to include AI, that makes it 7 players whose first developmental influence was the Kings.

Take a look at the defensemen in the same span. All who have played a top-4 role on a regular (or recent) basis:
Thomas Hickey
Alec Martinez
Drew Doughty
Slava Voynov
Derek Forbort
Colin Miller
Erik Cernak
Matt Roy
Mikey Anderson
Tobias Bjornfot
Jordan Spence

That's almost double the amount of players, despite there being fewer spots available.

Heck, with Bjornfot, he played alongside Doughty as an 18 year-old on the top pairing for a few games.

So, it's not like the Kings even firmly believe in slowly marinating all the prospects along.

I don't expect a singular prospect to be an all-star. Not even Byfield. As an aggregate of players, however, there is an underwhelming number of forwards who have been brought along to play in the top-six role.

 

[All The Kings Men]

I've said it many times over many years lately. I'll try to summarize my concerns one more time and try not to be annoying by discussing it further.

Regarding the development vs. scouting vs. expectations.
- I agree there are sometimes unrealistic expectations put on first round picks. I try to show patience for all picks on an individual basis, based on different contexts and experiences
- My concern is with the aggregate of data of all picks, and the philosophy of letting prospects marinate every year.

By itself, I think there is a LOT of value in having many prospects marinate and work their way up. Mostly because they typically don't have the skillset to make immediate impacts at higher levels. I think this is also viable for first round picks. Again. Context is important.

However, there is ALSO value in opportunity and empowerment. It just fits some people and players better. I don't think every prospect should be thrown in a top line role, just like I don't think every prospect should spend multiple seasons in a bottom-six role to "earn" their way (and by this definition, "earn" means to "wait until someone gets injured and you can play in his role for a brief stint").

Developmentally, there are questions about how the Kings prepare players for top-six roles. These are the players who ended up playing in a top-six capacity in the NHL on a regular (or recent) basis, since Dean Lombardi took over:
Tyler Toffoli
Tanner Pearson
Wayne Simmonds
Brayden Schenn
Dominik Kubalik
Adrian Kempe

That's six players in a 16-year span. 3 firsts, 2 seconds, and a seventh. That doesn't even include the fact that Simmonds and Kubalik spent zero time in the AHL.

For the purpose of this exercise, I didn't include Alex Iafallo as he signed as a free agent and played in the NHL right away. However, if you want to include AI, that makes it 7 players whose first developmental influence was the Kings.

Take a look at the defensemen in the same span. All who have played a top-4 role on a regular (or recent) basis:
Thomas Hickey
Alec Martinez
Drew Doughty
Slava Voynov
Derek Forbort
Colin Miller
Erik Cernak
Matt Roy
Mikey Anderson
Tobias Bjornfot
Jordan Spence

That's almost double the amount of players, despite there being fewer spots available.

Heck, with Bjornfot, he played alongside Doughty as an 18 year-old on the top pairing for a few games.

So, it's not like the Kings even firmly believe in slowly marinating all the prospects along.

I don't expect a singular prospect to be an all-star. Not even Byfield. As an aggregate of players, however, there is an underwhelming number of forwards who have been brought along to play in the top-six role.

This is one of those times where I wrote out a big long thing and looked up a bunch of draft information just to make sure I had my facts straight and then wound up typing something I know I shouldn't so I deleted the whole thing.

 

[King'sPawn]

This is one of those times where I wrote out a big long thing and looked up a bunch of draft information just to make sure I had my facts straight and then wound up typing something I know I shouldn't so I deleted the whole thing.

That's fine - I'm not expecting a particular response and I don't want to put you in an awkward position.

The point is my position isn't about expecting x from player y or expecting first round picks to be at a certain spot.

Just that from rounds 1-7, I feel there has been a variety of talent drafted over the years, and ultimately the numbers of forwards being developed into top-six roles are significantly fewer than defenders developed into top-four roles.

 

[bland]

A successfully developed top 6 forward would really change the perception of this developmental teams planning.

There is a uniformity in their results. Safety over production. When their hand is forced by injury, the less "safe" defensemen - namely Durzi and Spence - proved that their raw-er natural abilities CAN be impactful beyond their structural limitations.

But they have shown a desire to acquire proven forwards instead of giving their young prized possessions the opportunity to out-kick their safety coverages, so to speak.

That reluctance is very frustrating given the quality of their options. Since it is going to take several more quality veteran players to get this team to the next level, and all of the surrounding costs and issues that brings up, the value of the already-in-hand strengths is being limited by design. In impact, if not intent

We can only hope that the kids - even just one - hits his high end potential via their chosen method. We can only hope because we haven't seen it. If we do, the tone of the conversation will change.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

A successfully developed top 6 forward would really change the perception of this developmental teams planning.

There is a uniformity in their results. Safety over production. When their hand is forced by injury, the less "safe" defensemen - namely Durzi and Spence - proved that their raw-er natural abilities CAN be impactful beyond their structural limitations.

But they have shown a desire to acquire proven forwards instead of giving their young prized possessions the opportunity to out-kick their safety coverages, so to speak.

That reluctance is very frustrating given the quality of their options. Since it is going to take several more quality veteran players to get this team to the next level, and all of the surrounding costs and issues that brings up, the value of the already-in-hand strengths is being limited by design. In impact, if not intent

We can only hope that the kids - even just one - hits his high end potential via their chosen method. We can only hope because we haven't seen it. If we do, the tone of the conversation will change.

I also worry that once you have that rep, fair or not, you won't even be able to trade those forward prospects for proven forwards since people will be wise to the scheme.

Oh, a Kings top-10 pick F? No thanks, add a d-man please.

 

[Axl Rhoadz]

I've said it many times over many years lately. I'll try to summarize my concerns one more time and try not to be annoying by discussing it further.

Regarding the development vs. scouting vs. expectations.
- I agree there are sometimes unrealistic expectations put on first round picks. I try to show patience for all picks on an individual basis, based on different contexts and experiences
- My concern is with the aggregate of data of all picks, and the philosophy of letting prospects marinate every year.

By itself, I think there is a LOT of value in having many prospects marinate and work their way up. Mostly because they typically don't have the skillset to make immediate impacts at higher levels. I think this is also viable for first round picks. Again. Context is important.

However, there is ALSO value in opportunity and empowerment. It just fits some people and players better. I don't think every prospect should be thrown in a top line role, just like I don't think every prospect should spend multiple seasons in a bottom-six role to "earn" their way (and by this definition, "earn" means to "wait until someone gets injured and you can play in his role for a brief stint").

Developmentally, there are questions about how the Kings prepare players for top-six roles. These are the players who ended up playing in a top-six capacity in the NHL on a regular (or recent) basis, since Dean Lombardi took over:
Tyler Toffoli
Tanner Pearson
Wayne Simmonds
Brayden Schenn
Dominik Kubalik
Adrian Kempe

My first thought is: how many times are you guys gonna on and on about this? The Kings have never had as deep of a prospect pool as it does now, and this quantity of forwards making the jump to top 6 NHL might look very different in the next 3-5 years.

My second thought is what is the point of complaining about a list of 6 players over the past 10+ years or whatever number you are using without giving it more context? How does this compare to the rest of the league? Show me how badly the Kings look compared to the other teams...are they 32nd or is this pretty much the average?

 

[bland]

My first thought is: how many times are you guys gonna on and on about this? The Kings have never had as deep of a prospect pool as it does now, and this quantity of forwards making the jump to top 6 NHL might look very different in the next 3-5 years.

My second thought is what is the point of complaining about a list of 6 players over the past 10+ years or whatever number you are using without giving it more context? How does this compare to the rest of the league? Show me how badly the Kings look compared to the other teams...are they 32nd or is this pretty much the average?

Your first thought is always righteous indignation at the very concept of discussing something.

We are still waiting for the second thought.

 

[bland]

I also worry that once you have that rep, fair or not, you won't even be able to trade those forward prospects for proven forwards since people will be wise to the scheme.

Oh, a Kings top-10 pick F? No thanks, add a d-man please.

Look at the current perceived value of the recent top forward picks. Are the Kings developmental tactics lowering that value?

 

[Chazz Reinhold]

Look at the current perceived value of the recent top forward picks. Are the Kings developmental tactics lowering that value?

Someone posted this a few weeks ago but it resonated with me because the Kings fall on the “ruining” side when it comes to Han’s development model for blue-chip forward prospects: How to Ruin a Player

Smart teams:

1. Leverage a player’s Signature Skills (high frequency, high success) to build confidence (player to self) & trust (player to coach)
2. Expand a player’s comfort zone by uncovering underutilised assets (low frequency, high sucess actions)
3. Use the developmental momentum to Address a player’s high-frequency weaknesses
4. Aggressively Ignore a player’s low-frequency weaknesses (like DZ coverage for a winger) and chalk it up as a cost of doing business with that uniquely talented player

Dumb teams:​

1. Fixate on weaknesses at the expense of leveraging strengths
2. Spend valuable time & energy attempting to influence low-frequency, low-value skills
3. Double down on poor process by accusing the player of being uncooperative
4. Strip down the player’s unique identity, then sell him/her at a discount

 

[Axl Rhoadz]

Your first thought is always righteous indignation at the very concept of discussing something.

We are still waiting for the second thought.

So discuss it and quit crying about it -- you want to tell me that the Kings can't develop top-6 forwards, then prove that it's an issue and show me how they rank compared to the rest of the league.

 

[Cianide]

I agree with the first two points (in terms of more equitable minutes for Byfield) but Danault definitely played like a top 6 C last year. I’m not sure how you otherwise define it. He put up points, played great defensively and was out best player for long periods especially when it counted down the stretch.

He makes his living around the net, but he is not a top 6 talent.

 

[ClayAikenFan77]

Posted on here about Jared Wright after the draft and forgot I had this video of my favorite highlights from his Junior(D-1) and Senior (1st time draft eligible) years of high school hockey. Quick reminder that he's now about 6'2" and 185lbs . Sorry if you don't like EDM music lol. Will try to put something together from his year in Omaha last season!

Fun prospect tidbits from video: Last highlight is him beating Blackhawks 3rd round pick Wyatt Kaiser wide to score the game winning goal in the 2020 State Tournament QFs.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

So discuss it and quit crying about it -- you want to tell me that the Kings can't develop top-6 forwards, then prove that it's an issue and show me how they rank compared to the rest of the league.

There are pleeeenty of other studies out there to corroborate results but

Ranking the Last Decade of NHL Draft Results - The Hockey Writers NHL Entry Draft Latest News, Analysis & More

As everyone painstakingly pores over spreadsheets and draft profiles, how has each NHL team fared at the draft the last 10 years?

thehockeywriters.com

Notice the games played vs. points scored metrics.

This is why I agree with Yanetti that they're one of the best drafting/developing teams at NHL placement--they just create a buttload of NHL players no matter where in the draft they do their work.

BUT--the points per game of their drafted players is a third of a league away from their games played ranks.

Yes, I'm sure some of that is related to the Kings system, draft position, and other factors, but even over the course of their most successful decade, the Kings hardly generated top-six talent, and that which they did generate--while good players like Toffoli, Pearson, etc.--are 40-50 point guys anywhere they go. Yet, they rank super high in 'draft results' charts because they just raw generate an absolute f*** ton of good NHL players. The criticism comes in, hence, is where are the impact players? (and I wish I could parse the above results by points/game of drafted players because the Kings overall offense rank is obviously juiced by a high number of games).

And of course, I say all of the above as a guy that's probably unreasonably high on Turcotte and Byfield as well as Vilardi. But I have ZERO DOUBT we could fill out an entire bottom six with our prospects, probably even a 2nd line at least with the above. But where is the prospect that's going to rise and develop to compete with the other 1Cs? We're hopeful it's Byfield--but with draft history up until the last few years, it's not looking very likely, even Schenn ended up as more of a high-end 2C.

 

[King'sPawn]

There are pleeeenty of other studies out there to corroborate results but

Ranking the Last Decade of NHL Draft Results - The Hockey Writers NHL Entry Draft Latest News, Analysis & More

As everyone painstakingly pores over spreadsheets and draft profiles, how has each NHL team fared at the draft the last 10 years?

thehockeywriters.com

Notice the games played vs. points scored metrics.

This is why I agree with Yanetti that they're one of the best drafting/developing teams at NHL placement--they just create a buttload of NHL players no matter where in the draft they do their work.

BUT--the points per game of their drafted players is a third of a league away from their games played ranks.

Yes, I'm sure some of that is related to the Kings system, draft position, and other factors, but even over the course of their most successful decade, the Kings hardly generated top-six talent, and that which they did generate--while good players like Toffoli, Pearson, etc.--are 40-50 point guys anywhere they go. Yet, they rank super high in 'draft results' charts because they just raw generate an absolute f*** ton of good NHL players. The criticism comes in, hence, is where are the impact players? (and I wish I could parse the above results by points/game of drafted players because the Kings overall offense rank is obviously juiced by a high number of games).

And of course, I say all of the above as a guy that's probably unreasonably high on Turcotte and Byfield as well as Vilardi. But I have ZERO DOUBT we could fill out an entire bottom six with our prospects, probably even a 2nd line at least with the above. But where is the prospect that's going to rise and develop to compete with the other 1Cs? We're hopeful it's Byfield--but with draft history up until the last few years, it's not looking very likely, even Schenn ended up as more of a high-end 2C.

Just to throw some more stuff/data out there, here are some teams with recent or regular top-6 forwards that they drafted (from 2006-present):
Anaheim: Kyle Palmeiri, Rickard Rakell, William Karlsson, Troy Terry, Trevor Zegras, Ondrej Kase
Boston: Phil Kessel, Milan Lucic, Brad Marchand, Tyler Seguin, Ryan Spooner, David Pastrnak, Danton Heinen, Jake Debrusk
Buffalo: Tyler Ennis, JT Compher, Sam Reinhardt, Victor Olofsson, Jack Eichel, Casey Mittelstadt, Dylan Cozens
Calgary: Mikael Backlund, Sven Baertchi, Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, Sam Bennett, Andrew Mangiapane, Matthew Tkachuk
Carolina: Jeff Skinner, Victor Rask, Elias Linholm, Sebastian Aho, Nicolas Roy, Martin Necas, Andrei Svechnikov, Seth Jarvis
Chicago: Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Brandon Pirri, Kevin Hayes, Philip Danault, Brandon Saad, Teuvo Teravainen, Nick Schmaltz, Alex Debrincat, Kirby Dach
Colorado: Chris Stewart, Matt Duchene, Ryan O'Reilly, Gabriel Landeskog, Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen
Columbus: Derick Brassard, Jakub Voracek, Cam Atkinson, Ryan Johansen, Boone Jenner, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Alexander Texier
Dallas: Jamie Benn, Reilly Smith, Valeri Nichuskin, Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson

It took until Dallas to find a team who produced fewer top-six forwards in the NHL. I'm taking a break from this for now. but you can see that 6 is more on the lower side. 7 is starting to look average. Chicago has apparently been subsidizing teams for a while, where they have 10.

And this also overlooks some borderline players, like Sonny Milano, who played regularly with Zegras last season.

Not to mention, I'm only looking at drafted players. I'm not even taking into consideration players signed via free agency, like Iafallo.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Just to throw some more stuff/data out there, here are some teams with recent or regular top-6 forwards that they drafted (from 2006-present):
Anaheim: Kyle Palmeiri, Rickard Rakell, William Karlsson, Troy Terry, Trevor Zegras, Ondrej Kase
Boston: Phil Kessel, Milan Lucic, Brad Marchand, Tyler Seguin, Ryan Spooner, David Pastrnak, Danton Heinen, Jake Debrusk
Buffalo: Tyler Ennis, JT Compher, Sam Reinhardt, Victor Olofsson, Jack Eichel, Casey Mittelstadt, Dylan Cozens
Calgary: Mikael Backlund, Sven Baertchi, Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, Sam Bennett, Andrew Mangiapane, Matthew Tkachuk
Carolina: Jeff Skinner, Victor Rask, Elias Linholm, Sebastian Aho, Nicolas Roy, Martin Necas, Andrei Svechnikov, Seth Jarvis
Chicago: Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Brandon Pirri, Kevin Hayes, Philip Danault, Brandon Saad, Teuvo Teravainen, Nick Schmaltz, Alex Debrincat, Kirby Dach
Colorado: Chris Stewart, Matt Duchene, Ryan O'Reilly, Gabriel Landeskog, Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen
Columbus: Derick Brassard, Jakub Voracek, Cam Atkinson, Ryan Johansen, Boone Jenner, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Alexander Texier
Dallas: Jamie Benn, Reilly Smith, Valeri Nichuskin, Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson

It took until Dallas to find a team who produced fewer top-six forwards in the NHL. I'm taking a break from this for now. but you can see that 6 is more on the lower side. 7 is starting to look average. Chicago has apparently been subsidizing teams for a while, where they have 10.

And this also overlooks some borderline players, like Sonny Milano, who played regularly with Zegras last season.

Not to mention, I'm only looking at drafted players. I'm not even taking into consideration players signed via free agency, like Iafallo.

You would think by now just on dumb f***ing luck alone we'd have stumbled upon a Benn or Robertson or whatever, haha.

Maybe Chromiak or Simontaival suddenly become 30 goal guys, but we'd likely never know anyway, since they'll be 4th line checkers in Ontario till they return to Europe.

 

[kilowatt]

You would think by now just on dumb f***ing luck alone we'd have stumbled upon a Benn or Robertson or whatever, haha.

Maybe Chromiak or Simontaival suddenly become 30 goal guys, but we'd likely never know anyway, since they'll be 4th line checkers in Ontario till they return to Europe.

I mean I guess we developed Toffoli. If we only count forwards we've drafted outside the first round, our top five leading scorers since 2014-15 are Tyler Toffoli (256), Kyle Clifford (81), Dwight King (54), Nick Shore (49), and Austin Wagner (40). So uh, yeah. Yikes.

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

 

[Statto]

He makes his living around the net, but he is not a top 6 talent.

I disagree. He may not have an elite shot or play a flash game but his game IQ, reads & passing are top draw. He is Selke level defensively, drives play and everyone that has played alongside him delivered their best hockey of the season whilst doing so - I.e. he brings the best out of his line mates. Sure he’s not pretty but he was one of the better 2C players in the league last season. So what if he gets his points around the net? Does it matter where they come from?

I don’t get your assessment? You need to say what you definition of a 2C is because I really don’t understand your take. Just because he doesn’t dangle past 3 players every game it doesn’t mean he’s not a top 6 player. I’ll take substance over style every time.

 

[cyclones22]

I mean I guess we developed Toffoli. If we only count forwards we've drafted outside the first round, our top five leading scorers since 2014-15 are Tyler Toffoli (256), Kyle Clifford (81), Dwight King (54), Nick Shore (49), and Austin Wagner (40). So uh, yeah. Yikes.

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

Sutter stuck Toffoli with Carter and Richards to break in. His first 10 games of his career he was mostly riding shotgun with those guys.

 

[SaltyElkHunter]

Pittsburgh hasn’t really done a whole helluvalot in terms of forwards that were drafted not too mention the revolving door in their top 6.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Pittsburgh hasn’t really done a whole helluvalot in terms of forwards that were drafted not too mention the revolving door in their top 6.

Their 1st rounds look a lot like the Kings in the 2010s because their window was open going for it so they rarely had a 1st and when they did it was late--they got Kasperi Kapanen, who's a bit like pre-this-year Kempe and maybe what Kupari becomes, and Pouliot and Maatta.

However, twice in the third round they've drafted guys who have gone over PPG in Bryan Rust and Jake Guentzel...so yes, even the Pens have done that where the Kings have not. Jake Guentzel has a higher career PPG than Kopitar, so if we're still talking about placement of top-sixers and impact players...