Speculation: 2022-23 Sharks Roster Discussion Part II

[Gecklund]

The Sharks are lucky to have as bad a record as they do.

I hope y’all are right, but I would put money on those five teams finishing below us unless we get some major injuries.

I think the big thing is it feels like they are getting a lot of loser points. They have 6 extra points from them getting lower points. Karlsson has been a little bit more up and down lately. I also wonder how long Reimer can handle this workload. Couture, Hertl, Timo, and Barabanov are all having good to really good years offensively. If we start moving people, you’d have to guess it starts with Reimer and includes at least Bonino and Nieto (2 guys who have spent lots of time in our top 6). Makaniemi looked fine but him and Kahkonen can’t make up for losing Reimer. You’d have to hope our young guys come in and gel with the top guys if we actually stay the course while moving guys.

 

[OrrNumber4]

It makes sense, but it's depressing how fans are trying to optimistically justify how the team is worse than its record indicates...

 

[hohosaregood]

The Sharks are lucky to have as bad a record as they do.

I hope y’all are right, but I would put money on those five teams finishing below us unless we get some major injuries.

Yea metrics show we're better than our record but I keep thinking back to something Quinn was saying a few weeks ago that the team plays good hockey, but they don't play winning hockey. They seriously can not reliably close out a period without falling apart. Outside of that, I'd say they have a serious lack of scoring ability outside of the top 4-5 players like they could possess the puck all they want but they don't have many players that can create a legit scoring chance.

 

[Gecklund]

It makes sense, but it's depressing how fans are trying to optimistically justify how the team is worse than its record indicates...

I mean it’s not worse than their record indicates. They’ve just played more games than anyone else. Sharks have played 32 games. CBJ has played 30, ANA 32, and CHI 31. Those are the teams above them. The two teams right below them have played 29 (ARI) and 32 (PHI).

Now let’s talk about injuries. Sharks have really had no key injuries. Yes Reimer missed time but really nothing significant. ARI has missed their 1D for significant time. CBJ is missing their 1D which won’t get better but also a top line winger for significant time who’s back. CHI has missed multiple of their best forwards for a few games each and their 1D for a bit. PHI has missed their top pairing D and their top line C.

Anaheim sucks and we won’t catch them without all of our best guys missing and even then it would take a pretty big improvement from ANA.

Then when we talk about possible TDL moves. Sharks might lose a 1W, 1G, 2 top 9 W and that’s just expiring contracts. ARI might lose their 2 best D. CBJ really only has Gavrikov as an important player on an expiring contract. Chicago does have a lot and probably will end up around ANA level. Philly has no important guys on expiring contracts (or been involved in trade rumors).

Between injuries and TDL subtractions, you’d have to think the Sharks end up in the bottom 4 with ARI, CHI, ANA.

 

[Juxtaposer]

I mean it’s not worse than their record indicates. They’ve just played more games than anyone else. Sharks have played 32 games. CBJ has played 30, ANA 32, and CHI 31. Those are the teams above them. The two teams right below them have played 29 (ARI) and 32 (PHI).

Now let’s talk about injuries. Sharks have really had no key injuries. Yes Reimer missed time but really nothing significant. ARI has missed their 1D for significant time. CBJ is missing their 1D which won’t get better but also a top line winger for significant time who’s back. CHI has missed multiple of their best forwards for a few games each and their 1D for a bit. PHI has missed their top pairing D and their top line C.

Anaheim sucks and we won’t catch them without all of our best guys missing and even then it would take a pretty big improvement from ANA.

Then when we talk about possible TDL moves. Sharks might lose a 1W, 1G, 2 top 9 W and that’s just expiring contracts. ARI might lose their 2 best D. CBJ really only has Gavrikov as an important player on an expiring contract. Chicago does have a lot and probably will end up around ANA level. Philly has no important guys on expiring contracts (or been involved in trade rumors).

Between injuries and TDL subtractions, you’d have to think the Sharks end up in the bottom 4 with ARI, CHI, ANA.

The Sharks have three players better than anyone on Anaheim, Chicago, Columbus, Philly, and Arizona. Their depth is just about the same. I don’t see how you could watch any of those teams and think the Sharks are anywhere close to as bad as any of them. Couturier is out for the year. Werenski is out for the year. Drysdale is out for the year. The young players on the Ducks are overrated, and the Hawks and Coyotes just flat out have no talent.

I personally don’t believe we’ll see any trades from the Sharks at the deadline, whereas Chicago has Kane and Toews to trade, for example.

 

[Gecklund]

The Sharks have three players better than anyone on Anaheim, Chicago, Columbus, Philly, and Arizona. Their depth is just about the same. I don’t see how you could watch any of those teams and think the Sharks are anywhere close to as bad as any of them. Couturier is out for the year. Werenski is out for the year. Drysdale is out for the year. The young players on the Ducks are overrated, and the Hawks and Coyotes just flat out have no talent.

I personally don’t believe we’ll see any trades from the Sharks at the deadline, whereas Chicago has Kane and Toews to trade, for example.

I think you’re really underrating Kane, Zegras, Gaudreau, Chychrun, Couturier, Sanheim, Keller, etc. I also don’t know if I agree about their depth being the same. I thought Couturuer was back in January?

I don’t know why Grier would talk about moving EK and the Sharks beat reports are talking about moving Timo if there wasn’t at least talk. It feels like there’s too much smoke. Maybe that’s me remembering the past years with DW and the ironclad room that was there for the most part. It always felt like if something was leaked, there was a bit of truth to it.

 

[timorous me]

The Sharks are lucky to have as bad a record as they do.

I hope y’all are right, but I would put money on those five teams finishing below us unless we get some major injuries.

This is where I stand, too. The Sharks are not good, but they have some good players and the compete level has remained pretty high. And the record is slightly worse than expected because of the new coach/system combined with starting the year in Europe with an abbreviated camp.

Meanwhile you have a team like the Flyers who punched above their weight to start the year but are now lucky to get points. I can easily see them sinking like a stone while the Sharks founder about.

 

[DG93]

There are five truly disgustingly bad teams in the NHL right now: Chicago, Anaheim, Columbus, Philadelphia, and Arizona. Hard to imagine us being able to tank worse than any of them over a full season unless Karlsson, Meier, and Hertl have significant injuries. I think we’ll end up with 6th overall, lottery notwithstanding.

The good news is that outside of Chicago (trading Patrick Kane), the other teams don't really have big pieces they can sell at the TDL. If the Sharks are the 6th worst team in the NHL at the deadline, Grier will likely sell. I could see him trading Meier and Reimer (+ Nieto, Bonino, and maybe 1-2 others), which will make a big impact. That should put us in that group I think.

 

[Juxtaposer]

I think you’re really underrating Kane, Zegras, Gaudreau, Chychrun, Couturier, Sanheim, Keller, etc. I also don’t know if I agree about their depth being the same. I thought Couturuer was back in January?

I don’t know why Grier would talk about moving EK and the Sharks beat reports are talking about moving Timo if there wasn’t at least talk. It feels like there’s too much smoke. Maybe that’s me remembering the past years with DW and the ironclad room that was there for the most part. It always felt like if something was leaked, there was a bit of truth to it.

I forgot that Gaudreau was on Columbus, but the rest are not better than Hertl other than Couturier who isn’t playing the whole season.

Just because Grier is willing to talk about potential trades doesn’t mean they’ll pan out. I would bet real money that Karlsson and Meier are still Sharks at the end of the season.

 

[DG93]

I forgot that Gaudreau was on Columbus, but the rest are not better than Hertl other than Couturier who isn’t playing the whole season.

Just because Grier is willing to talk about potential trades doesn’t mean they’ll pan out. I would bet real money that Karlsson and Meier are still Sharks at the end of the season.

Not a big fan of Laine?

 

[Juxtaposer]

Not a big fan of Laine?

Not even a little.

 

[DG93]

Not even a little.

Fair enough lol

 

[Gecklund]

I forgot that Gaudreau was on Columbus, but the rest are not better than Hertl other than Couturier who isn’t playing the whole season.

Just because Grier is willing to talk about potential trades doesn’t mean they’ll pan out. I would bet real money that Karlsson and Meier are still Sharks at the end of the season.

I don’t know. I think Zegras is as good.. Terry is also really freaking good. Keller too. Couturier is supposed to be back in Jan or Feb.

I’d agree about EK but I also don’t think EK will stay healthy. Timo I have at 50/50. Either way I think there’s close to 0 chance Reimer will be on the roster at the end of the season and he’s been huge in keeping us in games.

 

[one2gamble]

The Sharks are lucky to have as bad a record as they do.

I hope y’all are right, but I would put money on those five teams finishing below us unless we get some major injuries.

I'm with you. The sharks need to get worse somewhere and the easiest place is goalie

 

[tiburon12]

January will be a pivotal month for the Sharks. They have 13 games and have a real chance of losing 9 of them and really cratering. Or, they beat some good teams and solidify themselves as a 7-10 team.

Before New Year, the Sharks CGY twice, and Minnesota and Vancouver, all games they should lose. Then they play Philly coming up and that is probably a 50-50 game, followed by a NYE game in Dallas (guaranteed loss, as is annual tradition) on the road. Real chance they go 1-5 in those 6 games, or manage something like 4 of 12 points.

On to Jan, the sharks have most games against teams they should lose to: NJD, EDM, BOS 2x, DAL, CAR, and PIT. Then a pair of games they could win but probably wont against LA and DET. And finally a 4-pack of games against the bottom teams in CBJ CHI, ANA and ARI.

So by the end of Jan I think it will be quite clear if this team is bottom 5 bad or not

 

[DG93]

January will be a pivotal month for the Sharks. They have 13 games and have a real chance of losing 9 of them and really cratering. Or, they beat some good teams and solidify themselves as a 7-10 team.

Before New Year, the Sharks CGY twice, and Minnesota and Vancouver, all games they should lose. Then they play Philly coming up and that is probably a 50-50 game, followed by a NYE game in Dallas (guaranteed loss, as is annual tradition) on the road. Real chance they go 1-5 in those 6 games, or manage something like 4 of 12 points.

On to Jan, the sharks have most games against teams they should lose to: NJD, EDM, BOS 2x, DAL, CAR, and PIT. Then a pair of games they could win but probably wont against LA and DET. And finally a 4-pack of games against the bottom teams in CBJ CHI, ANA and ARI.

So by the end of Jan I think it will be quite clear if this team is bottom 5 bad or not

Appreciate the breakdown...if they have momentum going into those last 4 games, I would predict that they will win 3 of them and will solidify themselves as a 7-10 team.

 

[OrrNumber4]

On the other hand, there's been a lot of smoke about the Sharks moving Karlsson. If that happens, you have to imagine Meier being traded.

 

[Gecklund]

On the other hand, there's been a lot of smoke about the Sharks moving Karlsson. If that happens, you have to imagine Meier being traded.

I still think an EK trade could only happen in the off-season or at least once there’s a more sure picture of where the cap is going to be at next year. It feels like they know it’s not going to be an easy trade so they are starting early.

 

[themelkman]

On the other hand, there's been a lot of smoke about the Sharks moving Karlsson. If that happens, you have to imagine Meier being traded.

I think the Meier deal is about 20x more likely

 

[Juxtaposer]

On the other hand, there's been a lot of smoke about the Sharks moving Karlsson. If that happens, you have to imagine Meier being traded.

Realistically, who can actually trade for him in-season? The cap alone will be difficult to move.

 

[Barrie22]

Realistically, who can actually trade for him in-season? The cap alone will be difficult to move.

As of right now, the penguins can of the ones i have looked at. At the deadline a good chunk of the teams can even without retaining any of the salary. So with 2-3 mil retained then it opens up a good amount of teams.

 

[Juxtaposer]

As of right now, the penguins can of the ones i have looked at. At the deadline a good chunk of the teams can even without retaining any of the salary. So with 2-3 mil retained then it opens up a good amount of teams.

Good to know.

The second problem, of course, is that if I’m an NHL GM and my team is trying to contend for a Stanley Cup, I would have not interest in trading for Karlsson in the middle of the season. Why? Because I have no idea how he’ll jive with my team. Karlsson is great, but to get the most out of him, he basically needs to be the centerpiece of your team. That works on bad teams with no other superstars, but I think it would take some adjustment for a team with other great players to get him going, and I wouldn’t want to take that risk while I’m gearing up for a playoff run.

The other thing about the “smoke” thing is that we have no idea how Grier is about leaks. Wilson was a vault, but what if Grier is just happy to have rumors floating around even when things aren’t imminent?

All this to say that I would be extremely, extremely surprised if Karlsson were traded during the season.

As for Meier, the longer we wait, the less value he’ll have. I’d be working the phones hard if I were Grier, trying to get someone to bite, and yet I feel confident he’ll still be a Shark at the end of the season too.

 

[Gecklund]

The Sharks upset me so rebuild time.

Trade 1:
Timo for Drury+Nishkin+1st

Proposed by a Canes fan. Gives us a potential C, a young LD in the KHL, and a 1st which is always nice.

Trade 2:
Reimer for Blackwood+Vilen+4th

With none of our AHL goalies really establishing themselves like we’d want, we pick up a youngish backup whose contract is up this year, a young puck moving LD, and another pick

Trade 3:
Nieto for Jean-Luc Foudy

Colorado doesn’t have many picks to play with but we send Nieto back over there where he can play anywhere in the bottom 9 and help their PK. We get a young C who probably won’t be a top 6 forward but should provide competition in the bottom 6 for years.

Trade 4:
Bonino for WPG 23 5th

Very similar to the Cogliano trade last year. Winnipeg look to be making the playoffs and pick up another vet who has been there to help their young guys who really haven’t been there for cheap.

Lines:
Gregor-Hertl-Labanc
Drury-Couture-Barabanov
Lindblom-Sturm-Svechnikov
Gadjovich-Lorentz-Reedy

Megna-Karlsson
Vlasic-Benning
Ferraro-Simek

Kahkonen
Blackwood

 

[LadyStanley]

Brodie speculates

 

[mogambomoroo]

Would you guys be open to trading for Alexis Lafreniere? New York seems to be open to trading him, and Sharks would be a good place to get a chance @ Top 6 role. I've always loved these kind of chances, even though it's weird that NYR is already doing this (bit of a red flag)

If someone has scouted more of Lafreniere, I would like to know if it's another Yakupov or is he more 2nd-3rd line guy that went too high in hindsight.