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Speculation: 2022-23 Sharks Roster Discussion Part II

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Friday said:
Couture seems to be working on his trade value this year. Pretty crazy if we lose Couture, Timo, and EK by the deadline. The way this teams trending im sure at least one of them is gone
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One thing that’s wild about this year is our stars aren’t necessarily the issue. Karlsson with 28 in 20, Timo/Hertl with 17 in 20, Couture with 15 in 20, Barabanov with 10 in 16, Sturm with 6 goals in 20. Issue is outside of them team has been pretty bad. At this point, I’d try to move anyone without a contract next year.
 
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SJSharks72 said:
One thing that’s wild about this year is our stars aren’t necessarily the issue. Karlsson with 28 in 20, Timo/Hertl with 17 in 20, Couture with 15 in 20, Barabanov with 10 in 16, Sturm with 6 goals in 20. Issue is outside of them team has been pretty bad. At this point, I’d try to move anyone without a contract next year.
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This best case here haha high salary players maintain their value. We move some for positive value and the team tanks more. Take Reimer and Timo away from this squad and they might be the worst team in the league.
 
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Friday said:
This best case here haha high salary players maintain their value. We move some for positive value and the team tanks more. Take Reimer and Timo away from this squad and they might be the worst team in the league.
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Yep agreed. I think if we move Reimer (50% retained) to Colorado or Toronto for around a 2nd or a 3rd+prospect and Timo somewhere for a first+prospect, we are definitely in solid competition for the worst team in the league. Take out Gregor, Nieto, Bonino, and Simek (has a contract but think Cicek should replace him) too and we are definitely up there.
 
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SJSharks72 said:
Yep agreed. I think if we move Reimer (50% retained) to Colorado or Toronto for around a 2nd or a 3rd+prospect and Timo somewhere for a first+prospect, we are definitely in solid competition for the worst team in the league. Take out Gregor, Nieto, Bonino, and Simek (has a contract but think Cicek should replace him) too and we are definitely up there.
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I’m thinking replacing Gregor, Bonino, and Nieto with Eklund, Bordeleau and a waiver pickup will result in an improvement. I could see a team with a poor PK taking Bonino or Nieto but I’d be surprised if we got 7ths for either.
 
SJSharks72 said:
Yep agreed. I think if we move Reimer (50% retained) to Colorado or Toronto for around a 2nd or a 3rd+prospect and Timo somewhere for a first+prospect, we are definitely in solid competition for the worst team in the league. Take out Gregor, Nieto, Bonino, and Simek (has a contract but think Cicek should replace him) too and we are definitely up there.
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If we're trying to be bad, why are we removing Simek? Simek-Ferraro was great for our tanking potential imo
 
DG93 said:
Really? I thought I saw that the advanced analytics for that pair were terrible...my bad
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According to Natural Stat Trick, among defensive pairs with at least 100 5v5 minutes together this season (there are 77), Simek-Ferraro is the ninth-worst in CF% (41.9), eighth-worst in FF% (40.8), sixth-worst in xGF% (37.5), are giving up the third-most scoring chances per 60 with the tenth-worst scoring chances per 60 %. They're well behind Karlsson-Megna and Vlasic-Benning in virtually every category.

The story is similar on Moneypuck - fourth-worst in xG% - and Evolving Hockey - again fourth-worst in xGF%, tenth-worst in CF%, eighth-worst in FF%.

Individually, EH does think Ferraro is doing fine defensively (above-average expected even-strength defense), though he's terrible offensively and that drags his total value down. Simek, however, looks bad in both directions.
 
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SJSharks72 said:
One thing that’s wild about this year is our stars aren’t necessarily the issue. Karlsson with 28 in 20, Timo/Hertl with 17 in 20, Couture with 15 in 20, Barabanov with 10 in 16, Sturm with 6 goals in 20. Issue is outside of them team has been pretty bad. At this point, I’d try to move anyone without a contract next year.
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This has always seem the way with the Sharks to me. They could never field solid players around their core group. Cost them some cup wins, imo.
 
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Cas said:
According to Natural Stat Trick, among defensive pairs with at least 100 5v5 minutes together this season (there are 77), Simek-Ferraro is the ninth-worst in CF% (41.9), eighth-worst in FF% (40.8), sixth-worst in xGF% (37.5), are giving up the third-most scoring chances per 60 with the tenth-worst scoring chances per 60 %. They're well behind Karlsson-Megna and Vlasic-Benning in virtually every category.

The story is similar on Moneypuck - fourth-worst in xG% - and Evolving Hockey - again fourth-worst in xGF%, tenth-worst in CF%, eighth-worst in FF%.

Individually, EH does think Ferraro is doing fine defensively (above-average expected even-strength defense), though he's terrible offensively and that drags his total value down. Simek, however, looks bad in both directions.
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Thank you! I saw the Natural Stat Trick stats...@SJSharks72, where'd you see the #s indicating that Ferraro is the problem rather the Simek?
 
DG93 said:
Thank you! I saw the Natural Stat Trick stats...@SJSharks72, where'd you see the #s indicating that Ferraro is the problem rather the Simek?
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It might have been something early in the season because it was from Natural Stat Trick. I assumed it was still the same as that’s what the eye test has said big time.
 
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The team’s stars are doing well, we just don’t have enough stars. Also, our defense is like, laughably terrible. We essentially need another 2-3 top four D-men, a legit 2C so we can bump Couture to center the third line, one or two more other top 6 players, and some 1-2 bottom 6 tweeners who can score on the third line.

So basically we need to revamp like half the team. Seems easily with the 43 dollars in cap space we have.
 
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After seeing how the Burns-Karlsson experiment didn't work, i'm wondering why teams with an established #1 RHD are interested in Karlsson. Sens (Chabot), Washington (Carlson), and Fla (Ekblad) seem like square-peg>round hole fits because they have their top D already.

St Louis, NYI, WPG, Seattle, Minny, or Toronto are the only teams I can see that have a need at D, a window that will likely be open for the next few years, and are currently competitive. But even then, the cap dollars are hard to make work for those teams.

I just don't see how a trade can work even if we take a bath on retention, unless some major 1-1 like Karlsson for Marner madness breaks out
 
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tiburon12 said:
After seeing how the Burns-Karlsson experiment didn't work, i'm wondering why teams with an established #1 RHD are interested in Karlsson. Sens (Chabot), Washington (Carlson), and Fla (Ekblad) seem like square-peg>round hole fits because they have their top D already.

St Louis, NYI, WPG, Seattle, Minny, or Toronto are the only teams I can see that have a need at D, a window that will likely be open for the next few years, and are currently competitive. But even then, the cap dollars are hard to make work for those teams.

I just don't see how a trade can work even if we take a bath on retention, unless some major 1-1 like Karlsson for Marner madness breaks out
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It feels like an off season move not a mid season move. If the cap moves up 4M and a team has some contracts off the books, totally possible. But mid season I have no idea how teams would make it work.
 
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Friedman and Marek speculate that currently Sharks/Grier are seeing what the market is for EK65 and how much $$ contract teams might be willing to take (and/or what Sharks might have to retain) and a general feel for the price teams might pay. Nothing close
 
LadyStanley said:


Friedman and Marek speculate that currently Sharks/Grier are seeing what the market is for EK65 and how much $$ contract teams might be willing to take (and/or what Sharks might have to retain) and a general feel for the price teams might pay. Nothing close
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GMMG driving up the price until Washington blinks and gives up Matt Irwin for EK65 straight up
 
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I'm more for tanking while retaining most of our good players, not trading them. Ideally tank for a top three pick and trade Reimer for a late first. Biggest hole to fill is a #1 center. With any luck two or three AHLers become good NHL players and we're competitive again in a year or so. Then think about trading "bad" contracts from a much stronger position
 
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hockeyCEO said:
I'm more for tanking while retaining most of our good players, not trading them. Ideally tank for a top three pick and trade Reimer for a late first. Biggest hole to fill is a #1 center. With any luck two or three AHLers become good NHL players and we're competitive again in a year or so. Then think about trading "bad" contracts from a much stronger position
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There’s no way Reimer returns a first.
 
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SJSharks72 said:
I think the Sharks can pick up a good amount of picks for their expiring contracts. Timo, Reimer, Nieto, Bonino should all have a decent market. I could also see the team moving a defenseman around deadline time.
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I'm not sure Bonino is going to have much of a market. He's a purely defensive forward now who isn't really that good at defense anymore. He can take faceoffs, so someone may want him as a 4C on a cheap expiring contract.
 
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