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Speculation: 2022-23 Sharks Roster Discussion Part II

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OrrNumber4 said:
A fanatic never changes his mind or the subject.

Karlsson's deficiencies defensively are because of his gap control. Right now, his contributions everywhere else completely dwarf them.
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Key words being “right now.” There is no chance this continues for the rest of the season let alone four more afterward. If it’s really possible to leverage Karlsson’s hot streak into a trade, even one where the Sharks retain salary and get nothing of value in return, they should take it and run.

Turn the page on this disastrous chapter of Sharks hockey (the team is still dogshit in case you hadn’t noticed) and start building something new.
 
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Levie said:
Hodge going from "He's an AHL caliber player" to "He won't be this good 6 years from now" You are the most bad faith person I've ever encountered.
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Bad faith is suggesting I ever called him an AHL player. He’s an elite offensive talent who is also one of the worst defensive players in the league. He’s also being paid as if he’s a top five player in the league until he’s 37 while the Sharks are further away from competing for a Cup than any other team. If you can dump the final 4.75 years of the deal you would be an idiot not to do it. The “value” coming back doesn’t matter.
 
Hodge said:
Key words being “right now.” There is no chance this continues for the rest of the season let alone four more afterward. If it’s really possible to leverage Karlsson’s hot streak into a trade, even one where the Sharks retain salary and get nothing of value in return, they should take it and run.

Turn the page on this disastrous chapter of Sharks hockey (the team is still dogshit in case you hadn’t noticed) and start building something new.
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You can either retain and get something of value in return, or you dump him for nothing without retaining. You CANNOT trade him for nothing with retention. That's too demoralizing for a team relying on him right now to win.
 
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The Sharks do not want to win enough to end up 12th-14th worse team have no chance at Bedard lose out on Fantilli and have a much lower chance a getting a 1st line player with higher bust potential.

The drop from 1st pick to 15th is pretty large. Chances of a player playing in the NHL is around 95% for the #1 pick. #15 pick is 50-65%.

There's also a massive deviation in ppg of ~0.8 ppg for #1 to 0.2 ppg for the 15th pick.

Also a big drop off after the first three picks.

Analyzing the value of NHL draft picks

Nothing insures Karlsson from getting hurt again. As good as he is this year on O the Sharks are still a lottery team.

Let's say Karlsson hits 100pts this year and the Sharks finish with the 10th worst record and 10th overall pick. Assuming no major trades how are the Sharks better off in 2023-2024?

Maybe Eklund is ready to play with the big club and can provide 30-40 pts.

Still haven't solved the center issue or the defense issue and the goaltending is still problematic.

With Beard, Michkov, or Fantilli the Sharks will have a strong chance to have a first liner who could become a superstar. They will also shed salary, which would give the Sharks the option to either add or taken of a salary dump for a pick or picks.
 
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Do we keep Karlsson? Yes.

I'll speculate that by age 37 he will regress from elite to very good, but not have a steep decline to poor/bad. This year his straight line acceleration has been fantastic. It is something to watch as he create distance from back checkers in the defensive zone. By age 37 that acceleration will be likely gone, and we'll be left with the Karlsson of the last few years. Still a very good player, but not worth 11M. Also probably 20 or so minutes a game.

Can we still tank and get Bedard, Michkov, or Fantilli? I think so. Karlsson's point production will come down, we don't have a #1 center, and we can't roll 3 fast/skilled lines like VGK did a few years back. Where will the points come from? I don't see it. Reimer has been playing like a #1 but if his play drops or he gets traded, that should put us into the bottom 5 of the league. We'll still have a very competitive no-quit team, but low on scoring with mediocre defense and goaltending. It's a recipe for many low-scoring losses by a goal or two late in the game. Perfect.

I think GMMG is on-board with this plan because he hasn't called up any of our potential NHLers from the AHL. Grier deserves a lot of credit for being disciplined to not take the easy way out, only to have them not reach their potential.
 
TheBeard said:
You can either retain and get something of value in return, or you dump him for nothing without retaining. You CANNOT trade him for nothing with retention. That's too demoralizing for a team relying on him right now to win.
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We just did that with Burns. I’m with Hodge on this one. If Mike can make a decent deal to get us out of the last 4 years of Karlsson in teal he should do it.
 
CupfortheSharks said:
We just did that with Burns. I’m with Hodge on this one. If Mike can make a decent deal to get us out of the last 4 years of Karlsson in teal he should do it.
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We got a third, a decent bottom six in Lorentz and a good goalie prospect. That’s a lot more than nothing even if it’s not what some were hoping.
 
TheBeard said:
We got a third, a decent bottom six in Lorentz and a good goalie prospect. That’s a lot more than nothing even if it’s not what some were hoping.
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It‘s a nominal return and only Lorentz helps slightly right now. It was a clear signal that Mike is looking towards the future. Trading Karlsson would just be a continuation of what has been started already. Same goes for Couture or Vlasic if they want to go and there is a deal to be made. It’s not about this year, it’s about the future.
 
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While I totally agree that trading Karlsson makes a lot of sense it’s painful as a fan as he’s literally the only fun thing about the Sharks right now. I’d almost rather they do it in the summer. I know that’s riskier but…
 
OrrNumber4 said:
Saying that trading Karlsson makes sense is perfectly reasonable. Arguing that Karlsson isn't actually playing incredibly well right now is just ridiculous.
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I’d agree with this. I think the thing is that the package we get in return really decides if it makes sense or not.
 
Friday said:
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I listened to the podcast and I feel like neither team makes any sense. Washington only has an offensive first, not great defensively RD signed for next year, so they add another? Florida makes a little more sense since Ekblad and Karlsson play such different games and Forsling would be basically the perfect partner for EK but I have no idea how the cap hit would work. We’d probably have to take back Bob and that’s pretty counter productive to moving EK unless elite futures are coming back in Knight or Lundell which makes no sense for Florida.
 
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Jargon said:
While I totally agree that trading Karlsson makes a lot of sense it’s painful as a fan as he’s literally the only fun thing about the Sharks right now. I’d almost rather they do it in the summer. I know that’s riskier but…
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EK65 @sharksfans:
 
CupfortheSharks said:
It‘s a nominal return and only Lorentz helps slightly right now. It was a clear signal that Mike is looking towards the future. Trading Karlsson would just be a continuation of what has been started already. Same goes for Couture or Vlasic if they want to go and there is a deal to be made. It’s not about this year, it’s about the future.
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I agree; but giving him away while also retaining isn’t worth it. Paying 5 million or so a year to have Karlsson play elite hockey for someone else is just bad business.
 
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Couture seems to be working on his trade value this year. Pretty crazy if we lose Couture, Timo, and EK by the deadline. The way this teams trending im sure at least one of them is gone
 
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