Speculation: 2022-23 Sharks Roster Discussion Part II

[Barrie22]

Feels like a sell low moment. I’m not really getting it unless they think we can be competitive this season so the salary cap and keeping Reimer instead of Hill is worth something.

Kahkonen is seen as a future starter, but him and hill together is just 2 young struggling plagers teaching each other. Reimer can be a good role model to teach kahkonen.

 

[NewMuzu24]

Agree with the logic of moving Hill so Reimer can mentor and then potentially be traded at the deadline, and I agree it’s the right move despite the return stinging. Dice didn’t land well on acquiring Hill.

That said, I’d rather have traded Hill to MTL for a 2025 5th instead because I’m exactly that petty regarding Vegas. Asset management be damned.

 

[Chabot84]

Not the same guy from Ottawa that’s for sure.

That was like 2 torn groins and broken ankles ago so no surprise

he has had more ankle problems?

 

[Barrie22]

Sharks with a team of 7 defense, 12 forwards and 2 goalies have 3.2 mil in cap space going into the open day of the season.

 

[tiburon12]

That's our final RFA, so Grier now has two main priorities:

1. Clearing the excess of goalies, ideally by moving Reimer for a 2nd.
2. Meier extension or trade - figure out what Meier wants, decide whether its in the budget for the team, and trade him before the deadline if its not.

I think Meier is good enough and young enough to be worth keeping if he doesn't cost more than $9 M/8 years or thereabouts, because I think he will still be a good player for the next good Sharks team if he's kept. That doesn't mean I wouldn't move him if a good offer came along, and I'd be feeling out the rest of the league to see what they'd offer.

We absolutely can afford to keep Meier at around that salary (the cap crunch is really only for the next couple of years) if we want to, though our depth will be somewhat limited (and that will remain true if we trade Meier, as well, so I'm not concerned about it).

If I'm Timo, i'm seeing exactly what the team has in:
- A defense / powerplay run by Karlsson
- Eklund, Bordeleau, and who ever else shines on their rookie deals (or who shows real promise at camp)
- Labanc and his ability to play like a 50-pt player
- Guys like Gregor, Lorenz, Sturm, etc and their ability to be NHL-average bottom 6 guys for years to come

There's no rush for him to sign anything, especially with 10m QO sitting in the barn. It's likely he doesnt become a 10m (assuming 100pts for that $$), but more like a 8-9 guy.

 

[seroes]

If I'm Timo, i'm seeing exactly what the team has in:
- A defense / powerplay run by Karlsson
- Eklund, Bordeleau, and who ever else shines on their rookie deals (or who shows real promise at camp)
- Labanc and his ability to play like a 50-pt player
- Guys like Gregor, Lorenz, Sturm, etc and their ability to be NHL-average bottom 6 guys for years to come

There's no rush for him to sign anything, especially with 10m QO sitting in the barn. It's likely he doesnt become a 10m (assuming 100pts for that $$), but more like a 8-9 guy.

None of our current prospects gives us a better 2C or or a competent defense. I like Ferraro but he is middle pairing guy at best. Karlsson is a #1 but has serious defensive faults. That's assuming he doesn't miss significant time. Past those 2 we have a bunch of bottom pairing defensemen.

Couture needs to be moved to wing or down to 3C, but given our options that isn't going to happen for at least a couple seasons. He and Karlsson will only get worse as they age. In a few years Hertl will begin declining as well.

The only prospects we have that could help the top six any time soon are the two you named. Both will likely not be impact players this year. If Time wants to compete soon he should ask for a trade.

 

[tiburon12]

None of our current prospects gives us a better 2C or or a competent defense. I like Ferraro but he is middle pairing guy at best. Karlsson is a #1 but has serious defensive faults. That's assuming he doesn't miss significant time. Past those 2 we have a bunch of bottom pairing defensemen.

Couture needs to be moved to wing or down to 3C, but given our options that isn't going to happen for at least a couple seasons. He and Karlsson will only get worse as they age. In a few years Hertl will begin declining as well.

The only prospects we have that could help the top six any time soon are the two you named. Both will likely not be impact players this year. If Time wants to compete soon he should ask for a trade.

Right, the concept was that Timo evaluates his own opportunity with this franchise before making a decision about where he wants to compete over his next contract.

I thought Sheng's alarmist approach to him not being signed (or having contract talks yet) a big shortsighted. Timo, pun intended, has all the time

 

[mogambomoroo]

Maybe a little offtopic but I kinda understand at the time why DW signed Couture, Karlsson and Vlasic to those long deals. I think it had big influence by Thornton, Marleau and Pavelski having actual success with pushing us to the playoffs being over 30-35 years old.

I'm totally fine with signing Meier long term, he is still young and can probably contribute to a next wave of Sharks too. I just hope that in the future with Grier, they go with more of an 3-4 year deals (like Ferraro). That gives Sharks a chance to build a team flexibly, when we actually start competing.

 

[OrrNumber4]

Maybe a little offtopic but I kinda understand at the time why DW signed Couture, Karlsson and Vlasic to those long deals. I think it had big influence by Thornton, Marleau and Pavelski having actual success with pushing us to the playoffs being over 30-35 years old.

That's true, but isn't this a fallacious way of thinking? That your anecdotes trump the vast amount of data, that past results are a guarantee of future success, and not considering the individual players?

I'm sympathetic to DW in the sense that Vlasic and Karlsson, at least, defied the aging curves in a negative way.

 

[Mafoofoo]

Not the same guy from Ottawa that’s for sure.

he has had more ankle problems?

We got sold on past achievements and false hopes in terms of EK65. At this point in his career if he eats popcorn too aggressively he’ll be out half the year with broken ribs.

He got his money and is happy to spend his days on IR drinking wine and eating crackers in Napa.

 

[mogambomoroo]

That's true, but isn't this a fallacious way of thinking? That your anecdotes trump the vast amount of data, that past results are a guarantee of future success, and not considering the individual players?

I'm sympathetic to DW in the sense that Vlasic and Karlsson, at least, defied the aging curves in a negative way.

I didn't mean it to sound like they were only done because of the success by Thornton, Marleau and Pavelski. Of course their individual projection matter too and looking through teal tinted glasses they were our guys. I just think that those 8-year deals were made without struggle, because the state of the team was influenced by older successful players. It would have been more logical to sign any of those players to a shorter term let's say 5 years and have more flexibility with roster building. I'm aware that players and their agents want as much financial security as possible and players had more leverage that time.

Also I'm aware that this has nothing to do the team now, and that this conversation leads to no solutions involved the deals DW already made.

I just brought it up, because I hope Grier looks at this team in a 3-4 years window at a time and don't sign 8-year contracts that end in over 35. We'll see if he has the leverage build a team that is successful and has room to improve and retool on the move if needed.

Timo is just in that window that his 8-year would end when he is in that 35y mark, and 35y is slowly becoming the new 38-40y mark if the league is getting faster and younger. So as much as I would like Sharks to sign Meier long term, I'm not 100% sure if trading him for a great value would be even better. That would lead to building a younger team in a shorter window at a time.

 

[Gecklund]

Since this season is going to suck anyways, I’m already thinking about the trade deadline. We could easily add a ton of picks at the deadline. Our rentals are Timo (RFA), Bonino, Gregor (RFA), Nieto, Nutivaara, Reimer. Just in terms of picks that’s easily a few 1sts, a 3rd+5th, a 4th, a 5th, a 5th and a 2nd+4th. Obviously it wouldn’t be just picks but man I’d love it if we left the deadline with like 5-7 more picks.

 

[STL Shark]

Since this season is going to suck anyways, I’m already thinking about the trade deadline. We could easily add a ton of picks at the deadline. Our rentals are Timo (RFA), Bonino, Gregor (RFA), Nieto, Nutivaara, Reimer. Just in terms of picks that’s easily a few 1sts, a 3rd+5th, a 4th, a 5th, a 5th and a 2nd+4th. Obviously it wouldn’t be just picks but man I’d love it if we left the deadline with like 5-7 more picks.

RFAs have never been considered rentals by anyone. Guys that I expect to be dealt are Bonino, Nieto, and Reimer. If Nutivaara is playing well, I think it's more likely that he's re-signed than it is that he gets dealt due to our issues with puck movers on the back end. If he's not playing well, he won't have trade value.

Gregor likely only gets dealt if he's having a Brandon Hagel or Barclay Goodrow type of season where you can sell high on a decent but not spectacular young player who is signed for cheap to a team that needs cheap lower line players. If the return is anything less than a 2nd round pick then it doesn't make sense to trade him right now as you still need cheap guys to fill out the bottom of the roster in the future once you move Nieto/Bonino.

 

[Gecklund]

RFAs have never been considered rentals by anyone. Guys that I expect to be dealt are Bonino, Nieto, and Reimer. If Nutivaara is playing well, I think it's more likely that he's re-signed than it is that he gets dealt due to our issues with puck movers on the back end. If he's not playing well, he won't have trade value.

Gregor likely only gets dealt if he's having a Brandon Hagel or Barclay Goodrow type of season where you can sell high on a decent but not spectacular young player who is signed for cheap to a team that needs cheap lower line players. If the return is anything less than a 2nd round pick then it doesn't make sense to trade him right now as you still need cheap guys to fill out the bottom of the roster in the future once you move Nieto/Bonino.

Middleton disproves your first point. Nutivaara also isn’t a puck mover. Gregor is nothing special but had good transition stats last season. If we can get back a mid round pick then you take it. Especially because we already have guys to fill out the roster if all 3 are moved.

 

[Alaskanice]

Wondering if another signing will arise with the cleared money and roster spot.

 

[Stewie Griffin]

Middleton disproves your first point. Nutivaara also isn’t a puck mover. Gregor is nothing special but had good transition stats last season. If we can get back a mid round pick then you take it. Especially because we already have guys to fill out the roster if all 3 are moved.

Middleton was an RFA traded for another RFA, that's not a rental.

In terms of Gregor, he's better than all of the guys that would be filling the bottom of our roster if Bonino, Nieto, etc. are dealt. Unless you want Viel, Gadj, etc. playing full time roles.

 

[seroes]

Right, the concept was that Timo evaluates his own opportunity with this franchise before making a decision about where he wants to compete over his next contract.

I thought Sheng's alarmist approach to him not being signed (or having contract talks yet) a big shortsighted. Timo, pun intended, has all the time

Shang has become more than a little clickbaity to me. It really sours me on him as a whole.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Middleton was an RFA traded for another RFA, that's not a rental.

In terms of Gregor, he's better than all of the guys that would be filling the bottom of our roster if Bonino, Nieto, etc. are dealt. Unless you want Viel, Gadj, etc. playing full time roles.

I can't see Gregor getting traded under any circumstance. If he's performing, they're going to want to keep him because he's still likely to be cheap. I can see Bonino getting a pick back similar to Cogliano. I don't see Nieto having any trade value though so I suspect he'll finish his contract here and Grier will let him walk. Nutivaara is probably a re-sign or let go situation rather than a trade. Ideally though, those three are the first to go and you hope that guys like Eklund, Bordeleau, and Merkley make it to where Grier will want to move them to give those kids spots they have earned. I wouldn't be too concerned about Viel and/or Gadjovich playing full time roles. This team isn't being designed to make the playoffs. This team is being designed to let what they have take the beatings so that their prospects can develop.

 

[hohosaregood]

Ideally, Simek has a bit of a resurgence and we can trade him with some retention

 

[Le Grand Quebecois]

If I'm Timo, i'm seeing exactly what the team has in:

- Labanc and his ability to play like a 50-pt player

I read that as Labanc and his ability to play like a 50-ft player

 

[Gecklund]

Middleton was an RFA traded for another RFA, that's not a rental.

In terms of Gregor, he's better than all of the guys that would be filling the bottom of our roster if Bonino, Nieto, etc. are dealt. Unless you want Viel, Gadj, etc. playing full time roles.

So if a UFA is traded for another UFA it’s not a rental? I don’t get that argument.

Also are you forgetting all of our other guys? Without Gregor, Bonino, Nieto (let’s assume Timo, Hertl, Couture, Labanc, Eklund, and Lindblom in top 6 just to cross names off) Kunin, Sturm, Bordeleau, Lorentz, Reedy, Barabanov, Weatherby and that’s not including if any of our prospects take another step. Look I’m not saying Gregor is going to be traded 100% but if we can get a solid pick back (say a 3rd) I say move him unless he takes a big step next year.

 

[STL Shark]

Middleton disproves your first point. Nutivaara also isn’t a puck mover. Gregor is nothing special but had good transition stats last season. If we can get back a mid round pick then you take it. Especially because we already have guys to fill out the roster if all 3 are moved.

Read any scouting report on Nutivaara and his game is characterized as a puck mover. So that's wrong first and foremost. Secondly, Middleton was traded by a past interim GM and has very little bearing on anything that happens this year. He also had 14 games of NHL experience going into the season rather than 275 like Nutivaara. So if the opportunity to sell high came about on a 26 year old given that likely regression, you had to take it.

 

[Stewie Griffin]

So if a UFA is traded for another UFA it’s not a rental? I don’t get that argument.

RFA's still provide the team with control over the player. UFA's dont. Both Kahkonen and Middleton were resigned by the teams that traded for them. Even if either team decided not to sign the one they traded for, they would have the option to trade that player for assets or take the compensation of another team signing that player before they would have to go the route of letting the player walk. That's why it's not a rental.

 

[WTFetus]

Ideally, Simek has a bit of a resurgence and we can trade him with some retention

Didn’t realize he had one more season after this season. Man DW really dropped the ball these last few years.

 

[Anomie2029]

Didn’t realize he had one more season after this season. Man DW really dropped the ball these last few years.

I think it was the curse of Brent Burns.
Joakim Ryan was the wookie whisperer - then he was awful.
Paul Martin was the wookie whisperer - then he was awful.
Simek was the wookie whisperer - he was re-signed, and then he was awful.
Ferraro was the wookie whisper - his play has fallen and is now re-signed.