Speculation: 2022-23 Sharks Roster Discussion Part II

[Gecklund]

The Kunin trade was fine. John Leonard is a career AHLer and we can probably get more than a 3rd for Kunin if we decide to move him this year or next.

Kunin was statistically one of the worst players in the NHL the year before the trade. Us paying to take him at all made it a bad trade.

 

[Alaskanice]

Kunin was statistically one of the worst players in the NHL the year before the trade. Us paying to take him at all made it a bad trade.

Statistically, one of the worst in the NHL? Really? That seems extreme.

 

[Hodge]

Kunin was statistically one of the worst players in the NHL the year before the trade. Us paying to take him at all made it a bad trade.

Kunin was also just 24, a former 15th overall pick, one of the most physical forwards in the league and most importantly scored at a 20 goals per 82 games pace the two seasons before that.

I probably wouldn’t have made the trade and just waited for the Preds not to qualify him but I understand wanting to guarantee control of his rights when the price is so low. It’s not a trade that’s likely to have much of an impact in the long run either way.

 

[Gecklund]

Statistically, one of the worst in the NHL? Really? That seems extreme.

It’s not. It’s accurate. He genuinely had some of the worst advanced stats in the NHL. Basically they all said he was an active detriment to the team with all the stupid penalties he took. His possession numbers were garbage too. This was pointed out a ton at the time too.

Kunin was also just 24, a former 15th overall pick, one of the most physical forwards in the league and most importantly scored at a 20 goals per 82 games pace the two seasons before that.

I probably wouldn’t have made the trade and just waited for the Preds not to qualify him but I understand wanting to guarantee control of his rights when the price is so low. It’s not a trade that’s likely to have much of an impact in the long run either way.

No and I agree that it’s likely not much of an impact one way or the other.

I will say that not having that third in this draft is a pretty big issue. There’s some VERY intriguing prospects right around where that pick is. Will they ever amount to anything? Who knows but still sucks not having our chance at them.

 

[TheBeard]

It’s not. It’s accurate. He genuinely had some of the worst advanced stats in the NHL. Basically they all said he was an active detriment to the team with all the stupid penalties he took. His possession numbers were garbage too. This was pointed out a ton at the time too.

No and I agree that it’s likely not much of an impact one way or the other.

I will say that not having that third in this draft is a pretty big issue. There’s some VERY intriguing prospects right around where that pick is. Will they ever amount to anything? Who knows but still sucks not having our chance at them.

We have like 12 picks in this draft including three in the top 36 and five in the top 100. I think we’ll survive without that 3rd.

 

[Hodge]

It’s not. It’s accurate. He genuinely had some of the worst advanced stats in the NHL. Basically they all said he was an active detriment to the team with all the stupid penalties he took. His possession numbers were garbage too. This was pointed out a ton at the time too.

No and I agree that it’s likely not much of an impact one way or the other.

I will say that not having that third in this draft is a pretty big issue. There’s some VERY intriguing prospects right around where that pick is. Will they ever amount to anything? Who knows but still sucks not having our chance at them.

The odds of a 68th overall pick having a better career than Kunin is extremely low, probably less than 10%. We also have 12 total picks in this draft that we can use to move around if we really want someone in that range. Kunin is the exact type of player teams like adding to their playoff roster too so I’m confident we will be able to recoup the pick and then some if Grier decides not to sign him to an extension.

 

[landshark]

I don't even buy this, we were supposed to be "tanking" in 2003 & 2015 after missing the playoffs and we had our best years immediately after.

Sometimes the retool works... I don't think the Sharks in a retool situation. It's full rebuild, I think.

 

[Gecklund]

We have like 12 picks in this draft including three in the top 36 and five in the top 100. I think we’ll survive without that 3rd.

If you don’t see why we need more picks, I don’t know what to tell you. We need to take every shot we can considering we literally have ONE current player in the organization that has any potential of being an impact player. AND that player plays the least impactful position.

The odds of a 68th overall pick having a better career than Kunin is extremely low, probably less than 10%. We also have 12 total picks in this draft that we can use to move around if we really want someone in that range. Kunin is the exact type of player teams like adding to their playoff roster too so I’m confident we will be able to recoup the pick and then some if Grier decides not to sign him to an extension.

And I agree that that pick could be nothing. Last year there are 10 prospects between pick 68 and the end of the third that I would easily take over Kunin. The year before that 9. They could be nothing obviously but we also have 300 bottom 6 players. We didn’t need to waste a pick on another. Times are changing where every pick counts. I also don’t know if teams will pay more than a third for him. Especially if the injury lingers literally at all.

 

[Hodge]

Last year there are 10 prospects between pick 68 and the end of the third that I would easily take over Kunin. The year before that 9.

Has a single one of these players played a single NHL game yet?

Let’s not deal with hypotheticals and instead look at a draft where career trajectories are pretty much settled, like 2017 (or before). I count one 3rd rounder out of 31 that I would take over Kunin and that’s Stuart Skinner. In 2016 the only guy is Adam Fox who wouldn’t have signed with the Sharks and fell for precisely that reason. Even in the vaunted 2015 draft there’s just Cirelli and Adin Hill plus Keegan Kolesar who is arguably comparable to Kunin.

I agree we should be looking to accumulate as many picks as possible but when we already have 12, I find it hard to care about only having one 3rd rounder instead of 2. Especially when the player we acquired is still relatively young and can easily be dealt for a similar pick in a year if we choose to.

 

[Gecklund]

Has a single one of these players played a single NHL game yet?

Let’s not deal with hypotheticals and instead look at a draft where career trajectories are pretty much settled, like 2017 (or before). I count one 3rd rounder out of 31 that I would take over Kunin and that’s Stuart Skinner. In 2016 the only guy is Adam Fox who wouldn’t have signed with the Sharks and fell for precisely that reason. Even in the vaunted 2015 draft there’s just Cirelli and Adin Hill plus Keegan Kolesar who is arguably comparable to Kunin.

I agree we should be looking to accumulate as many picks as possible but when we already have 12, I find it hard to care about only having one 3rd rounder instead of 2. Especially when the player we acquired is still relatively young and can easily be dealt for a similar pick in a year if we choose to.

But we aren’t talking about drafts 2017 and before. You can ask literally any person who has followed prospects that long that since 2020 the draft has changed where there’s a lot more variety in rankings.

Again I’m not saying it will amount to anything to spend a pick on yet another bottom sixer is in no way a good trade.

 

[Hodge]

But we aren’t talking about drafts 2017 and before. You can ask literally any person who has followed prospects that long that since 2020 the draft has changed where there’s a lot more variety in rankings.

Again I’m not saying it will amount to anything to spend a pick on yet another bottom sixer is in no way a good trade.

Why aren’t we talking about drafts 2017 or before? We should be because we have no idea how players drafted since 2020 are going to develop. The oldest prospects are 21 years old.

Getting a long term bottom six forward is an 80+ percentile outcome for a 3rd round pick.

 

[Gecklund]

Why aren’t we talking about drafts 2017 or before? We should be because we have no idea how players drafted since 2020 are going to develop. The oldest prospects are 21 years old.

Getting a long term bottom six forward is an 80+ percentile outcome for a 3rd round pick.

Because the drafts aren’t the same since that time. You have guys going in the third round that win the defenseman of the year or score 140 points. Don’t think you’d find that in 2017.

We don’t need yet another long term bottom six forward with no chance of being anything else. We need more lottery tickets.

 

[Hodge]

Because the drafts aren’t the same since that time. You have guys going in the third round that win the defenseman of the year or score 140 points. Don’t think you’d find that in 2017.

I find it really hard to believe that hockey players have dramatically improved since 2017. And even if they have, there are only 23 more NHL jobs available now so the success rates will stay roughly the same.

 

[Gecklund]

I find it really hard to believe that hockey players have dramatically improved since 2017. And even if they have, there are only 23 more NHL jobs available now so the success rates will stay roughly the same.

I just edited my post as you responded so I’ll copy it here:

We don’t need yet another long term bottom six forward with no chance of being anything else. We need more lottery tickets.

We have at least 30 guys in the org that max out as bottom 6 forward. We really don’t need more.

 

[landshark]

If we don't need more bottom six forwards then what's the big deal about a 3rd round pick tho?

 

[Pinkfloyd]

If we don't need more bottom six forwards then what's the big deal about a 3rd round pick tho?

You can draft goalies and defensemen that elevate themselves to a pivotal role at that level. I didn't care for the Kunin trade but I'm not worried about a 3rd going out.

 

[landshark]

You can draft goalies and defensemen that elevate themselves to a pivotal role at that level. I didn't care for the Kunin trade but I'm not worried about a 3rd going out.

I get that, but Kunin was 24 at the time, former mid-1st round pick. ~PPG AHL numbers. Right handed shooting center. I would rather take the shot at Kunin developing a bit than lotto odds on a 3rd rounder being much of anything.

I get that he didn't look good last year, but then Karl and Timo were the only ones to look good last year because the team was trying to find itself under a new GM...

 

[Gecklund]

If we don't need more bottom six forwards then what's the big deal about a 3rd round pick tho?

Even if the chance is 5%, why add more of what you have that isn’t really an improvement over what you have rather than hope that 5% hits? Again the guy who won defenseman of the year in the QMJHL and a guy who put up 140 points in the QMJHL were both there at 68 in the last two years. That’s only two as well. Multiple other guys who have that chance of being an impact player that Kunin doesn’t have.

 

[landshark]

Even if the chance is 5%, why add more of what you have that isn’t really an improvement over what you have rather than hope that 5% hits? Again the guy who won defenseman of the year in the QMJHL and a guy who put up 140 points in the QMJHL were both there at 68 in the last two years. That’s only two as well. Multiple other guys who have that chance of being an impact player that Kunin doesn’t have.

GMMG needed to fill out the lineup with non-kids. Kunin is in the same mold as Kaut. 1st round pick from a few years ago, rdy for NHL duty and maybe that 1st round pick upside is hidden there, trapped by being so far down the depth chart on their previous team. There's no guarantee that they take those QMJHL guys. They could just take some more known entity from Bahstan for all we know. Hindsight is always 20/20.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I get that, but Kunin was 24 at the time, former mid-1st round pick. ~PPG AHL numbers. Right handed shooting center. I would rather take the shot at Kunin developing a bit than lotto odds on a 3rd rounder being much of anything.

I get that he didn't look good last year, but then Karl and Timo were the only ones to look good last year because the team was trying to find itself under a new GM...

That was already on his way off his 2nd team. If two teams are giving up on year by 24, you've got long odds of turning it around. Still, no harm really done by doing the deal just not one I'd do. I would have rather found a way to take Dickinson off of Vancouver's hands for an extra 2nd rounder over moving a 3rd for Kunin. Yeah, they still needed to fill out the lineup but take free assets where you can when you know you're taking a step back and rebuilding. It's just the smarter more efficient thing to do.

 

[landshark]

That was already on his way off his 2nd team. If two teams are giving up on year by 24, you've got long odds of turning it around. Still, no harm really done by doing the deal just not one I'd do. I would have rather found a way to take Dickinson off of Vancouver's hands for an extra 2nd rounder over moving a 3rd for Kunin. Yeah, they still needed to fill out the lineup but take free assets where you can when you know you're taking a step back and rebuilding. It's just the smarter more efficient thing to do.

That's totally fair, his numbers with NSH were not great but that's why the price was low in the first place I'd assume.

I sometimes wonder if there's a Farhan kinda thing going on where maybe the Sharks think they can analyze and fix certain, specific types of shortcomings in a player's game. It would be great to be able to ask the folks that make the decisions why they took one option over another. I hope the Sharks focus on upping their player development game overall, gonna need it.

 

[Gecklund]

GMMG needed to fill out the lineup with non-kids. Kunin is in the same mold as Kaut. 1st round pick from a few years ago, rdy for NHL duty and maybe that 1st round pick upside is hidden there, trapped by being so far down the depth chart on their previous team. There's no guarantee that they take those QMJHL guys. They could just take some more known entity from Bahstan for all we know. Hindsight is always 20/20.

Okay no prospects in the bottom 6. Yes we didn’t have Sturm, Lindblom, or Svechnikov at the time of the trade but pretty obvious we were going to sign some depth or at least were able to so there’s 3. Then we still got Gregor, Lorentz, Bonino, Nieto, Gadjovich who were all older than 23 at the time of the trade. Also could have kept Balcers (25), could have played Viel (25). That is 10 guys for 6 spots without Kunin. Let’s also add in the fact Labanc should be no where near the top 6. That is 11 guys. Let’s also give Grier another 2.5M (Kunin contract). Could have signed 3 more at the minimum contract.

My whole point is that there was absolutely no reason to waste a 3rd on him.

 

[landshark]

Okay no prospects in the bottom 6. Yes we didn’t have Sturm, Lindblom, or Svechnikov at the time of the trade but pretty obvious we were going to sign some depth or at least were able to so there’s 3. Then we still got Gregor, Lorentz, Bonino, Nieto, Gadjovich who were all older than 23 at the time of the trade. Also could have kept Balcers (25), could have played Viel (25). That is 10 guys for 6 spots without Kunin. Let’s also add in the fact Labanc should be no where near the top 6. That is 11 guys. Let’s also give Grier another 2.5M (Kunin contract). Could have signed 3 more at the minimum contract.

My whole point is that there was absolutely no reason to waste a 3rd on him.

I get it. Sorry if I came off like I don't understand your reasoning. I get that you'd value the 3rd rounder over the right shooting center that was a former mid first rounder. You'd rather play the lotto and wait 3 or 4 years in hopes for something to bloom that's greater in value than the 3rd round pick itself. It's all kinda in the eye of the beholder tho.

3rd rounder for someone with 1st round potential... Right shot center. I think all those folks you mentioned are lefties... Just double checked, Labanc is the only righty in that group... Not sure if that's actually why, but perhaps it affected GMMG's decision.

 

[STL Shark]

The way I think about it is, we’re not gonna win with Karlsson on the roster and if anything he’s just a detriment to our short term goal of drafting as high as possible.

But there is a chance, however remote, that within the next 2-3 years Will Smith or Leo Carlsson develops into a 1C for us (especially if we’re lucky enough to draft Carlsson, just look at how dominant Elias Pettersson was in his D+2 season), we grab a future 1D at the top of the 2024 draft, Eklund develops into a first line winger and we hit on at least one other prospect between Bystedt, Lund, Havelid and 26th/36th this year.

At that point you’re going to want cap space to surround the new core with young impact players from other teams much more than you’re going to want a 35 year old Karlsson taking up 11.5 million in cap space.

Would I bet money on all of those things happening? Probably not, but at the same time Ottawa went from being a shambles in 2019 to trading for DeBrincat and Chychrun 3 years later. And that was despite trading away the 2019 4th overall pick and blowing another top 10 pick in 2021.

Things can change quickly and it’s better to create maximum flexibility going forward than hold on to players like Karlsson and Couture who will likely never contribute to a winning Sharks team again, and certainly won’t provide value relative to their cap hit.

I get that, but I also am not going to take a deal that doesn't yield much/any real return just for cap space (see the Burns deal last year where that was more necessary).

I suppose it really just depends what Grier is wanting to do this offseason. With the idea that he doesn't want a super long rebuild, maybe he does some buying and selling and thus the cap space is more needed in the shorter term. As it stands right now, we have cap space out the rear end for the next few years and nobody to really spend it on.

That can change if you hit on a couple of high-end players (like you said), but I think that is at least a couple of years away unless we jump up and grab Fantilli. Even then, there are simply too many holes on the back end (particularly on the right side) and no answers in net to think we make the jump overly soon without some pretty aggressive moves.

 

[Gecklund]

I get it. Sorry if I came off like I don't understand your reasoning. I get that you'd value the 3rd rounder over the right shooting center that was a former mid first rounder. You'd rather play the lotto and wait 3 or 4 years in hopes for something to bloom that's greater in value than the 3rd round pick itself. It's all kinda in the eye of the beholder tho.

3rd rounder for someone with 1st round potential... Right shot center. I think all those folks you mentioned are lefties... Just double checked, Labanc is the only righty in that group... Not sure if that's actually why, but perhaps it affected GMMG's decision.

Kunin also isn’t a C was the other issue. I also don’t think Kunin has first round potential.

I think a bit of it now too is seeing a guy like Gibson or Akey who are projected to be there early 3rd and saying I want one. It’s not even about Kunin either because I was advocating taking a chance on Kunin. Now I was saying for Labanc or Gregor or a 5th. To me though it just doesn’t make sense to give up a top 100 pick for a guy that you can get in FA.