Speculation: 2022-23 Sharks Roster Discussion Part II

[one2gamble]

I said it elsewhere but a middle 6 forward is still a tremendously valuable player to have or to trade. Could easily bring back a 1st round pick or be part of a package for better player.

Him making the nhl as a full time player would be a huge win regardless of where in the lineup

 

[OrrNumber4]

Claiming Merkley, Knyazev, Laroque and Fisher have “realistic top four potential” is exactly the kind of delusional optimism I’m repeatedly told nobody here actually believes. If even one of those players makes the NHL in a bottom pairing role it’ll be a win.

Being charitable to @Cas, he might be thinking of realistic as a "10%" chance, while you're seeing is a >50% chance. That's the issue with labels and words.

I’m actually convinced that you truly believe that once a player gets drafted here he no longer is capable of being an NHLer

Draft position and the level and occurrence of production (league + age) are, as far as I know, the best predictors of NHL success. Sharks fans should know this; just think of Taylor Doherty, Konrad Abeltshauser, Ty Wishart...

I can see how given Covid-19 and everything, it's a little harder to judge prospects based on traditional metrics. But when you look at the metrics, I don't think any of the above players have a >50% chance of being top-4 players. I'd say that Merkley, because of his strong OHL production and the improvements he's made could be close to that level.

 

[Anomie2029]

Being charitable to @Cas, he might be thinking of realistic as a "10%" chance, while you're seeing is a >50% chance. That's the issue with labels and words.


Draft position and the level and occurrence of production (league + age) are, as far as I know, the best predictors of NHL success. Sharks fans should know this; just think of Taylor Doherty, Konrad Abeltshauser, Ty Wishart...

I can see how given Covid-19 and everything, it's a little harder to judge prospects based on traditional metrics. But when you look at the metrics, I don't think any of the above players have a >50% chance of being top-4 players. I'd say that Merkley, because of his strong OHL production and the improvements he's made could be close to that level.

Ah... Melbourne Mustangs great Ty Wishart! I don't know how anyone could call playing in Australia a bust!

 

[PacificOceanPotion]

So pretty much the only way you’re going to get a home grown top 4 Dman is to draft him in the top 10? Got it

 

[Gecklund]

Being charitable to @Cas, he might be thinking of realistic as a "10%" chance, while you're seeing is a >50% chance. That's the issue with labels and words.


Draft position and the level and occurrence of production (league + age) are, as far as I know, the best predictors of NHL success. Sharks fans should know this; just think of Taylor Doherty, Konrad Abeltshauser, Ty Wishart...

I can see how given Covid-19 and everything, it's a little harder to judge prospects based on traditional metrics. But when you look at the metrics, I don't think any of the above players have a >50% chance of being top-4 players. I'd say that Merkley, because of his strong OHL production and the improvements he's made could be close to that level.

Even 10% is just wrong. Laroque is a legit d prospect same thing with Havelid. Fisher is intriguing but definitely one of those more of a long shot but he was JUST DRAFTED! Kid dominated his league. He can only play what’s in front of him. Knyzhov WAS a top 4 D before he got hurt. Writing him off because he had two injury riddled seasons is f***ing crazy. If that’s the case then there’s no way Hertl will ever be a 1C (he is by the way). Kniazev really turned it around to end the year but the issue was the team around him sucked. He was really good in junior too and it’s his first season as a pro. Hatakka is another one that is a long shot but people forget he literally made the nhl team in his first season over here. Furlong has all of the tools to be a second pairing D if he puts it all together.

Merkley has been f***ed by the covid seasons and so I think realistically you can say this is basically still his rookie season. Give him a few years. For Hodge, If a player is a Shark then they suck. If a player is from ANYWHERE else then they are MILES better than what we have. Lundkvist is in no way a better prospect than Merkley until he proves he is. Again Merkley outproduced him on worse teams. Obviously not the best metric but for two Dmen known for their offense it might be the best one.

Now the guy I might trade for from NYR that’s unhappy is Kravtsov. He could potentially come in as our 3C or somewhere in our top 9 on the wing.

 

[STL Shark]

My mistake for making the charitable assumption that you couldn't actually be suggesting something as stupid as trading Bordeleau or a 2nd round pick for an established NHL defenseman. How the hell would that make any sense for the Sharks in their current state? A non-playoff team should not be moving those assets for the type of "solid NHL D-man" they would be bringing back.

Even Lundkvist at 22 is close to the upper age limit of players we should be trading significant futures for. But in a straight up swap for Bordeleau I think we're clearly getting the better end of the deal even with the age difference.

So now Bordeleau is a significant future asset in your mind? I can't keep up with the flip flopping and goal post moving.

 

[Hodge]

So now Bordeleau is a significant future asset in your mind? I can't keep up with the flip flopping and goal post moving.

I’ve already said I view Bordeleau’s present value as that of a 2nd round pick. What would be the point of the Sharks trading 1sts, 2nds or equivalent value prospects for short term help when they have no chance of making the playoffs? It’s just poor asset management regardless of how I feel about Bordeleau’s chances of making the NHL.

What you’re suggesting is the Adin Hill trade 2.0 which actually checks out since you loved that trade and spent last offseason defending it.

 

[mogambomoroo]

Offtopic: I love the Bordeleau and Eklund bromance.

 

[OrrNumber4]

Even 10% is just wrong. Laroque is a legit d prospect same thing with Havelid. Fisher is intriguing but definitely one of those more of a long shot but he was JUST DRAFTED! Kid dominated his league. He can only play what’s in front of him. Knyzhov WAS a top 4 D before he got hurt. Writing him off because he had two injury riddled seasons is f***ing crazy. If that’s the case then there’s no way Hertl will ever be a 1C (he is by the way). Kniazev really turned it around to end the year but the issue was the team around him sucked. He was really good in junior too and it’s his first season as a pro. Hatakka is another one that is a long shot but people forget he literally made the nhl team in his first season over here. Furlong has all of the tools to be a second pairing D if he puts it all together.

Merkley has been f***ed by the covid seasons and so I think realistically you can say this is basically still his rookie season. Give him a few years. For Hodge, If a player is a Shark then they suck. If a player is from ANYWHERE else then they are MILES better than what we have. Lundkvist is in no way a better prospect than Merkley until he proves he is. Again Merkley outproduced him on worse teams. Obviously not the best metric but for two Dmen known for their offense it might be the best one.

Now the guy I might trade for from NYR that’s unhappy is Kravtsov. He could potentially come in as our 3C or somewhere in our top 9 on the wing.

What percentages would you apply to those prospects?

 

[Gecklund]

What percentages would you apply to those prospects?

Which ones? I talked about a lot. I guess I can just go through all of our young D cause I’m pretty slow at work so any defensemen under 23. Numbers are more of if they make the NHL.

Disclaimer kind of hard to put percentages because development could take some huge leap or huge step back.

Mario Ferraro: 100% he ends up at least top 4. He’s already there so 100%

Nikolay Knyzhov: 50-75% he ends up a second pairing D. He was already there just depends how he comes back from injury.

Ryan Merkley: 40% he ends up a second pairing D. 5% top pair. 35% a third pair D. 20% 7D or less. Merkley is one of like 3 I think could end up anywhere from 1-8 on d ranking. He’s probably our best offensive D (other than EK) in the system now but he really needs to figure out his defensive game more. If he improves defensively he’s a second pair D. If he improves massively defensively he’s a top pair. If he doesn’t he’s either a third pairing D or a 7,8 D.


Gannon Laroque: 50% second pair D. 50% lower. Don’t think he has top pair potential but could be wrong. He’s just improving every step of the way and just looks good. His offensive stats don’t look great but his team also wasn’t good. I think this season will move those percentages a lot.

Santeri Hatakka: 25% second pair, 65% third pair, 10% 7D or less. Dude just has an nhl game. Made the NHL out of camp last season. I don’t think he has the type of game to really become a top pairing D but I think he’s pretty safe to be at least a third pairing D.

Nick Cicek: 15% second pair, 65% third pair, 20% 7D or less. Basically copy and paste from Hatakka but just a step behind. He could really surprise though.

Artemi Kniazev: 10% top pair, 30% second pair, 40% third, 20% 7D or less. Like Merkley another guy I could see anywhere from 1-8 except a step down. He needs to figure it out a bit more but will be interesting to see him this year. Starting turning it around with the Cuda last year but team bad.

Michael Fisher: 10% top pair, 30% second, 40% third, 20% 7D or less. Copy and paste from Kniazev. Will be interesting to watch him this year against better comp.

Mattias Havelid: 20% top pair, 50% second pair, 20% third pair, 10% 7D or less. Havelid is one of (if not) my favorite d prospect in the system. If he can figure out how to not let his size be a detriment he’s going to be really good. He’s good offensively and competent enough defensively.

Jake Furlong: this one is a hot take and I’m aware of it. We will see if I’m right. 10% top pair, 40% second pair, 40% third pair, 10% less. I love this player. He’s just good at everything. Think Jeremy Roy pre-injury level prospect in my eyes. I think he will have a huge breakout year in the next year or two.

I do want to emphasize this was not an easy task because on one hand I want to be positive and think okay they can/will figure this skill out (Merkley with defense for example) but obviously you can’t always assume that. These percentages are a bit optimistic for sure but even the most pessimistic is better than 10% chance for any prospect to make the top 4.

 

[Hodge]

So every Sharks defense prospect has a 80-90% chance of making the NHL. Seems reasonable.

 

[Gecklund]

So every Sharks defense prospect has a 80-90% chance of making the NHL. Seems reasonable.

Yep just about. But no go ahead and ignore disclaimers or how low end 3rd pairing D are. f*** go look at Jordan Oesterle’s numbers or Megna or Simek.

God damn man. Why the f*** are you here? All you do is bash the Sharks.

 

[OrrNumber4]

Which ones? I talked about a lot. I guess I can just go through all of our young D cause I’m pretty slow at work so any defensemen under 23.

Disclaimer kind of hard to put percentages because development could take some huge leap or huge step back.

Mario Ferraro: 100% he ends up at least top 4. He’s already there so 100%

Nikolay Knyzhov: 50-75% he ends up a second pairing D. He was already there just depends how he comes back from injury.

Ryan Merkley: 40% he ends up a second pairing D. 5% top pair. 35% a third pair D. 20% 7D or less. Merkley is one of like 3 I think could end up anywhere from 1-8 on d ranking. He’s probably our best offensive D (other than EK) in the system now but he really needs to figure out his defensive game more. If he improves defensively he’s a second pair D. If he improves massively defensively he’s a top pair. If he doesn’t he’s either a third pairing D or a 7,8 D.


Gannon Laroque: 50% second pair D. 50% lower. Don’t think he has top pair potential but could be wrong. He’s just improving every step of the way and just looks good. His offensive stats don’t look great but his team also wasn’t good. I think this season will move those percentages a lot.

Santeri Hatakka: 25% second pair, 65% third pair, 10% out of the league. Dude just has an nhl game. Made the NHL out of camp last season. I don’t think he has the type of game to really become a top pairing D but I think he’s pretty safe to be at least a third pairing D.

Nick Cicek: 15% second pair, 65% third pair, 20% AHL. Basically copy and paste from Hatakka but just a step behind. He could really surprise though.

Artemi Kniazev: 10% top pair, 30% second pair, 40% third, 20% out of the league. Like Merkley another guy I could see anywhere from 1-8 except a step down. He needs to figure it out a bit more but will be interesting to see him this year. Starting turning it around with the Cuda last year but team bad.

Michael Fisher: 10% top pair, 30% second, 40% third, 20% out of the league. Copy and paste from Kniazev. Will be interesting to watch him this year against better comp.

Mattias Havelid: 20% top pair, 50% second pair, 20% third pair, 10% out of the league. Havelid is one of (if not) my favorite d prospect in the system. If he can figure out how to not let his size be a detriment he’s going to be really good. He’s good offensively and competent enough defensively.

Jake Furlong: this one is a hot take and I’m aware of it. We will see if I’m right. 10% top pair, 40% second pair, 40% third pair, 10% less. I love this player. He’s just good at everything. Think Jeremy Roy pre-injury level prospect in my eyes. I think he will have a huge breakout year in the next year or two.

I do want to emphasize this was not an easy task because on one hand I want to be positive and think okay they can/will figure this skill out (Merkley with defense for example) but obviously you can’t always assume that. These percentages are a bit optimistic for sure but even the most pessimistic is better than 10% chance for any prospect to make the top 4.

I don't know how to say this without being bombastic.

Those numbers are absurd. You're saying two players who were just drafted in the third and fifth rounds have an 80% and 90% chance of making the league, including a 40% and 50% chance of being top-4 players? Were all the other NHL teams blasted? Or was the 2022 draft the most talent-laden in NHL history?

Ignoring Ferraro, you're saying that there is a ~99.6% chance the Sharks get at least one top-4 dman out of this group, and a ~96% chance they get at least 2?

Yep just about. But no go ahead and ignore disclaimers or how low end 3rd pairing D are. f*** go look at Jordan Oesterle’s numbers or Megna or Simek.

God damn man. Why the f*** are you here? All you do is bash the Sharks.

Not sure I would even consider those players 3rd-pairing dmen.

Let me flip it for you; think about how many players are drafted and how many players make the NHL. Think about how many Sharks's prospects with great junior careers fizzled out once they turned pro...

 

[Gecklund]

I don't know how to say this without being bombastic.

Those numbers are absurd. You're saying two players who were just drafted in the third and fifth rounds have an 80% and 90% chance of making the league, including a 40% and 50% chance of being top-4 players? Were all the other NHL teams blasted? Or was the 2022 draft the most talent-laden in NHL history?

Ignoring Ferraro, you're saying that there is a ~99.6% chance the Sharks get at least one top-4 dman out of this group, and a ~96% chance they get at least 2?


Not sure I would even consider those players 3rd-pairing dmen.

Let me flip it for you; think about how many players are drafted and how many players make the NHL. Think about how many Sharks's prospects with great junior careers fizzled out once they turned pro...

I guess my numbers are more based on if they make the nhl how they make it. Like I said before you can’t really put percentages on development.

I would say yes there is close to 100% chance they get a top 4 D out of that group (outside of Ferraro) and probably at least 75-80 then get 2. Just by numbers alone.

I also think we have a different definitions and standards of what these players are. Like for me a guy like (can’t even use the Sharks cause their D are hard to do cause most are third pair) say Fowler is a top pairing D. A guy like Matt Roy from LA second pair. A guy like Simek is third pair. For the Sharks EK is a first pair d, Ferraro second, Simek 3rd.

I dunno it’s really hard to put percentages on players because Merkley for example. If he fixes his D a little bit he’s a good third pairing D, if he fixes his D a lotta bit he’s a good second pairing D, if he fixes it to unconventional levels then he’s a top pairing D but there’s a whole lot of options between not at all and unconventional levels. I think those percentages are more of if they make the nhl where they’ll likely end up. As I said before you can’t really guess development.

I think there’s also an aspect of what does make the nhl mean? Like do we consider Hatakka who played 9 games as making the NHL? Do we consider Merkley who played like 35+ games as making the NHL? Middleton also is an example of this. Do we consider him a good second pairing D? He really only had one season at level next to EK.

 

[sharski]

Which ones? I talked about a lot. I guess I can just go through all of our young D cause I’m pretty slow at work

++hfBoardsPostersWithJobsInMgmt;

 

[seroes]

Which ones? I talked about a lot. I guess I can just go through all of our young D cause I’m pretty slow at work so any defensemen under 23. Numbers are more of if they make the NHL.

Disclaimer kind of hard to put percentages because development could take some huge leap or huge step back.

Mario Ferraro: 100% he ends up at least top 4. He’s already there so 100%

Nikolay Knyzhov: 50-75% he ends up a second pairing D. He was already there just depends how he comes back from injury.

Ryan Merkley: 40% he ends up a second pairing D. 5% top pair. 35% a third pair D. 20% 7D or less. Merkley is one of like 3 I think could end up anywhere from 1-8 on d ranking. He’s probably our best offensive D (other than EK) in the system now but he really needs to figure out his defensive game more. If he improves defensively he’s a second pair D. If he improves massively defensively he’s a top pair. If he doesn’t he’s either a third pairing D or a 7,8 D.


Gannon Laroque: 50% second pair D. 50% lower. Don’t think he has top pair potential but could be wrong. He’s just improving every step of the way and just looks good. His offensive stats don’t look great but his team also wasn’t good. I think this season will move those percentages a lot.

Santeri Hatakka: 25% second pair, 65% third pair, 10% 7D or less. Dude just has an nhl game. Made the NHL out of camp last season. I don’t think he has the type of game to really become a top pairing D but I think he’s pretty safe to be at least a third pairing D.

Nick Cicek: 15% second pair, 65% third pair, 20% 7D or less. Basically copy and paste from Hatakka but just a step behind. He could really surprise though.

Artemi Kniazev: 10% top pair, 30% second pair, 40% third, 20% 7D or less. Like Merkley another guy I could see anywhere from 1-8 except a step down. He needs to figure it out a bit more but will be interesting to see him this year. Starting turning it around with the Cuda last year but team bad.

Michael Fisher: 10% top pair, 30% second, 40% third, 20% 7D or less. Copy and paste from Kniazev. Will be interesting to watch him this year against better comp.

Mattias Havelid: 20% top pair, 50% second pair, 20% third pair, 10% 7D or less. Havelid is one of (if not) my favorite d prospect in the system. If he can figure out how to not let his size be a detriment he’s going to be really good. He’s good offensively and competent enough defensively.

Jake Furlong: this one is a hot take and I’m aware of it. We will see if I’m right. 10% top pair, 40% second pair, 40% third pair, 10% less. I love this player. He’s just good at everything. Think Jeremy Roy pre-injury level prospect in my eyes. I think he will have a huge breakout year in the next year or two.

I do want to emphasize this was not an easy task because on one hand I want to be positive and think okay they can/will figure this skill out (Merkley with defense for example) but obviously you can’t always assume that. These percentages are a bit optimistic for sure but even the most pessimistic is better than 10% chance for any prospect to make the top 4.

Uh...that is unrealistic to say the least. While I think some of those guys will make the NHL on some level, I don't think there is a top pairing defenseman among them. Merkley is the only chance and he has not been trending well. This is his put up or shut up year to show us something. Anything. And I honestly think he is gonna shut up.

If we can get a 2nd pairing defenseman and one or two bottom pairing guys that's a win for us.

Exclaimed on Ferraro, he is already a middle pairing defenseman, but I think that's as he can go. He just doesn't have the offensive ability to do more.

 

[Gecklund]

Uh...that is unrealistic to say the least. While I think some of those guys will make the NHL on some level, I don't think there is a top pairing defenseman among them. Merkley is the only chance and he has not been trending well. This is his put up or shut up year to show us something. Anything. And I honestly think he is gonna shut up.

If we can get a 2nd pairing defenseman and one or two bottom pairing guys that's a win for us.

Exclaimed on Ferraro, he is already a middle pairing defenseman, but I think that's as he can go. He just doesn't have the offensive ability to do more.

Numbers are if they make the nhl. We already have a second pairing D and two bottom pairing of that group so apparently it’s already a win.

I will say at least 50% of those guys will be in the NHL. Ferraro, Knyzhov, Merkley, Laroque, Havelid, and Furlong are all guys I see in the NHL for sure but that’s all based on my opinion.

 

[TheBeard]

You're saying two players who were just drafted in the third and fifth rounds have an 80% and 90% chance of making the league, including a 40% and 50% chance of being top-4 players?

In all fairness, every team has a pretty high opinion of their recent picks or they wouldn’t have picked them.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

Whats the deal with William Eklund? Thought this kid would be a shoe in. capfriendly's depth projected lineups have him on the outs. where do you guys think he will end up? NHL or AHL?

 

[timorous me]

Uh...that is unrealistic to say the least. While I think some of those guys will make the NHL on some level, I don't think there is a top pairing defenseman among them. Merkley is the only chance and he has not been trending well. This is his put up or shut up year to show us something. Anything. And I honestly think he is gonna shut up.

If we can get a 2nd pairing defenseman and one or two bottom pairing guys that's a win for us.

Exclaimed on Ferraro, he is already a middle pairing defenseman, but I think that's as he can go. He just doesn't have the offensive ability to do more.

While I think it's unlikely there's a top pairing defenseman among this group, my thinking is that the best chances for such a player would be those who are the farthest away--and thus the most unknown (with the most room for growth and development)--so I'd say that would be Fisher and Havelid (though size makes top pairing less likely for him) and even Laroque. Not saying it's a high chance, just that the future is open enough for them that it's not worth ruling out completely.

With the other guys, we sort of know most of them well enough by this point to know their ceilings better, and second pairing feels pretty safely the top potential level for some, while for others it's surely third pairing.

 

[Cas]

Whats the deal with William Eklund? Thought this kid would be a shoe in. capfriendly's depth projected lineups have him on the outs. where do you guys think he will end up? NHL or AHL?

I'm betting AHL to start while we run some of the waiver-eligible guys to see if they're worth a spot (spoiler alert: they're not) and bring up Eklund and Bordeleau after a few weeks.

 

[Kcoyote3]

Whats the deal with William Eklund? Thought this kid would be a shoe in. capfriendly's depth projected lineups have him on the outs. where do you guys think he will end up? NHL or AHL?

Will play in both leagues this year but probably more NHL.

 

[Karl Prime]

Eklund said he gained seven pounds of muscle so that will benefit his puck protection game.

 

[OrrNumber4]

In all fairness, every team has a pretty high opinion of their recent picks or they wouldn’t have picked them.

There's being high on prospects, and there's being baked on prospects if you catch my drift.

 

[CupfortheSharks]

Whats the deal with William Eklund? Thought this kid would be a shoe in. capfriendly's depth projected lineups have him on the outs. where do you guys think he will end up? NHL or AHL?

He skipped world juniors to focus on making the Sharks. Played in a rookie game tonight against the Ducks. He was in on all 3 Sharks goals, scoring 2 of them and had the primary assist on the other. He was clearly the most impactful player on the ice. I don’t think he is going to be denied a roster spot on the Sharks.