Speculation: 2022-23 Roster Thread

[Hockey Duckie]

I think this team is closer to being on the playoff bubble than to have a legit chance at Bedard. I hate tanking, not going to stay up to 1am watching a team get their asses handed to them every night with no hope.

This group gives me some hope to be somewhat competitive in games and can go either way. I think they upgraded a lot on the offense side and with the development and growth of the kids can see an even bigger upgrade from within .

Someone called Gibson a wild card. That is so true. He has to play solid and stay what way. He fell off a cliff after the ASG and the team was still in a playoff spot so not sure what he was thinking or why the lack of motivation. Gibby doesn’t have to necessarily pull pre-ASG number. I’m talking around a 910 to .915 SV% and around 2.6-2.8 GAA, which is right below or above his career averages. I think this team can score 3 or more goals most nights to give him support with how it’s shaping up.

Still would like Verbeek to add another Top 6F or Top 4D then think they can be a Dark Horse this season. Even if a lot of things still have to happen.

I'm wondering if the team was playing tight after the ASG b/c of our new GM and wondering if the team will stay intact.

After the TDL, our ES offense improved, but our defense stayed meh. What hurt us tremendously was falling off of a cliff at our special teams. We lost four players from our special teams: Lindholm (PP and PK), Manson (PK), Des (PK), and Rakell (PP). The team was forced to use Fowler and Shatty more on the PK, which wore them out to on the PP.

With Strome, Vatrano, McTavish, Jones, and an in-shape/motivated Comtois, I think our forward group has the potential to exceed what we lost last year, including Getz to retirement. We have a lot of unknowns with those five forwards b/c they weren't with us last year - yes, this includes Comtois b/c we got chubby Comtois last year than competitive Comtois from two seasons ago.

Defensively, all we did was add Klingberg. That's pure offense there! He can take up the PP slack now that we are reliant on Fowler and Shatty to be on the PK unit. We may lose a lot of games b/c we don't have the horses to penalty kill well. We traded for one uber offense guy with little defense vs two shutdown guys with some offense.

Forward group offense: the same or better
Forward group defense: better

Defensive group offense: better
Defensive group defense: far worse

If our PP can score more than our PK unit gives up, then we could be a middling team. If we did at a top-4 shutdown LD, then we might be scratching on the fringe of a playoff spot.

.
=====
Statistical reason why our current roster set is going to be like the game 34-62 set from last year.

Read at your own peril.

Ducks
2021-22
Game Set	GP	W	L	OTL	Pts	.	GF	GA	GD		GF/GP	GA/GP	GD/GP		Point Share
Total	82	31	37	14	76		232	271	-39		2.83	3.30	-0.48​		0.463​
Gm 1 - 33	33	17	9	7	41		104	91	13		3.15	2.76	0.39​		0.621​
Gm 34 - 62	29	10	16	3	23		76	106	-30		2.62	3.66	-1.03​		0.397​
Gm 63 - 82	20	4	12	4	12		52	74	-22		2.60	3.70	-1.10​		0.300​

Gm 1 - 33: Healthy defense
Gm 34 - 62: Not so healthy defense. (Lindholm missed 2 games, Fowler 4 games, and Manson 16 games.)
Gm 63-82: After TDL

In totality, our offense and defense got slightly worse in GF and GA per game. The win column actually paints a far worse outcome. Why?

Ducks ES Split
2021-22
Game Set	GP	GF	GA	GD	.	PPG	PK GA	.	ESG	ESG/GP	ESGA	ESGA/GP	ES GD/GP
Total	82	232	271	-39		48	43		184​	2.24​	228​	2.78​	-0.54​
Gm 1 - 33	33	104	91	13		23	12		81​	2.45​	79​	2.39​	0.06​
Gm 34 - 62	29	76	106	-30		19	17		57​	1.97​	89​	3.07​	-1.10​
Gm 63 - 82	20	52	74	-22		6	14		46​	2.30​	60​	3.00​	-0.70​

This was surprising to me. Our offense at ES kicked it up a notch! While our ES defense stayed porous, the offense closed the gap for ES goal differential.

Game 63-82

Total GA per game = 3.70​

ES GA per game = 3.00​

That should identify how bad our PK unit was.

Ducks	Special Teams
2021-22
Game Set	Games	PPG	PPO	Eff		PK GA	TSH	PK Eff
1 to 33	33	23	90	25.6%		12	85	85.9%
34 to 62	29	19	85	22.4%		17	89	80.9%
63 to 82	20	6	44	13.6%		14	50	72.0%

The bottom fell out at both the PP and PK units.

Games 1 - 33: We were positive ES Goal Differential per game played + top-5 PP + top-5 PK
Games 34-62: We were negative ES GD/GP + top-11 PP + top-15 PK
Games 63-82: We were negative ES GD/GP + 31st PP + 32nd PK (last in league)

Two seasons ago, with a last place PP and average PK, Anaheim struggled mightily. Yet, they were involved in a plethora of 1-goal games. (See next post)

 

[Hockey Duckie]

One-goal game differential and Special Teams play.

=== 2020-21 ===

Ducks
Year	Type of Games	Games	W	L	OTL	Pts		Pct of games		Point Share	Win Pct
2020-21	Total	56	17	30	9	43		100.0%​		38.4%​	30.4%​
	1-goal games	29	10	10	9	29		51.8%​		50.0%​	34.5%​
	Non 1-g games	27	7	20	0	14		48.2%​		25.9%​	25.9%​

Ducks	Special Teams
2020-21	Games	PPG	PPO	Eff	Rank	PK GA	TSH	PK Eff	Rank
1 to 56	56	11	123	8.9%	31st	33	164	79.9%	16th

Lindholm only played in 18 games. Manson played in 23 games. They played in only two games together. At least one of them was on the ice for 39 games out of 56 total games for the shortened COVID season.

.
=== 2021-22 ===

Ducks	Special Teams
2021-22
Game Set	Games	PPG	PPO	Eff		PK GA	TSH	PK Eff
1 to 33	33	23	90	25.6%		12	85	85.9%
34 to 62	29	19	85	22.4%		17	89	80.9%
63 to 82	20	6	44	13.6%		14	50	72.0%

Ducks	Games 1 - 33
Year Schedule	Game Set Splits	Games	W	L	OTL	Pts		Pct of games		Point Share	Win Pct
2021-22	Games 1 - 33	33	17	9	7	41		100.0%​		62.1%​	51.5%​
	1-goal games	20	7	6	7	21		60.6%​		52.5%​	35.0%​
	Non 1-g games	13	10	3	0	20		39.4%​		76.9%​	76.9%​

Involved in more 1-goal games than to start the season. The PP and PK helped improve overall play. We were the better team most nights.

Ducks	Games 34 - 62
Year Schedule	Game Set Splits	Games	W	L	OTL	Pts		Pct of games		Point Share	Win Pct
2021-22	Gm 34-62	29	10	16	3	23		100.0%​		39.7%​	34.5%​
	1-goal games	12	6	3	3	15		41.4%​		62.5%​	50.0%​
	Non 1-g games	17	4	13	0	8		58.6%​		23.5%​	23.5%​

Injuries hit, our PP dropped a bit as well as our PK. We were no longer as competitive as the first 33 games. While we did improve our 1-goal game record, outside of that our team was terrible.

Ducks	Games 63 - 82
Year Schedule	Game Set Splits	Games	W	L	OTL	Pts		Pct of games		Point Share	Win Pct
2021-22	Games 63-82	20	4	12	4	12		100.0%​		30.0%​	20.0%​
	1-goal games	6	0	2	4	4		30.0%​		33.3%​	0.0%​
	Non 1-g games	14	4	10	0	8		70.0%​		28.6%​	28.6%​

We couldn't pull out 1-goal games at all. We simply were beyond terrible on the scoresheet despite the players giving their 100% effort on the ice.

All we did with the blue line this off-season was add a very good offensive defenseman in Klingberg. I don't think we can shut teams down at the end of games.

====

I don't think the current construction of the roster is equal to that of the one we started in 2021-22. We're tilted offensively with the blue line going into this season. Our Achilles' heel will be the PK unit. If we can't make it back to middling, then I don't see us closer to a playoff spot than landing Bedard.

My skepticism lies on the lack of defense from our defensive unit. That's why I say we'll probably be in a lot of shootout, but we might be on the losing end. We're no longer built from the net out after the TDL.

 

[bsu]

Dude......

 

[12ozPapa]

This Hockey Duckie guy has got to get out once in awhile

 

[Smirnov2Chistov]

I’m sorry, but I don’t think keeping Manson and Lindholm would’ve ‘pushed the needle’ so to speak for this team.

I’m glad that Verbeek is/was able to acquire the assets that he has done so. Although I wish he could have done better for the Rakell trade

 

[Deuce22]

I’m sorry, but I don’t think keeping Manson and Lindholm would’ve ‘pushed the needle’ so to speak for this team.

I’m glad that Verbeek is/was able to acquire the assets that he has done so. Although I wish he could have done better for the Rakell trade

Don't question the narrative. The Ducks were contenders until Verbeek started to captain the ship.

 

[FlyingV09]

We need more of our guys like Zegras, Terry, McTavish, etc to keep developing and become consistent elite producers for us to even be in the conversation of contender. Every contending team has those pieces and we're not even close. We've done a good job of drafting(need more forwards next year), now we need to focus on the development.

 

[ohcomeonref]

We need more of our guys like Zegras, Terry, McTavish, etc to keep developing and become consistent elite producers for us to even be in the conversation of contender. Every contending team has those pieces and we're not even close. We've done a good job of drafting(need more forwards next year), now we need to focus on the development.

80 points from Z and Terry; 45 points from MacT? I'd call that a resounding success.

 

[DuckDuckGetz]

This Hockey Duckie guy has got to get out once in awhile

Not to be rude, but literally every time I see a comment my eyes glaze over and I just keep scrolling without reading.

 

[bsu]

Not to be rude, but literally every time I see a comment my eyes glaze over and I just keep scrolling without reading.

On the long ones, you aren't the only one I promise you that

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

One-goal game differential and Special Teams play.

=== 2020-21 ===

Ducks
Year	Type of Games	Games	W	L	OTL	Pts		Pct of games		Point Share	Win Pct
2020-21	Total	56	17	30	9	43		100.0%​		38.4%​	30.4%​
	1-goal games	29	10	10	9	29		51.8%​		50.0%​	34.5%​
	Non 1-g games	27	7	20	0	14		48.2%​		25.9%​	25.9%​

Ducks	Special Teams
2020-21	Games	PPG	PPO	Eff	Rank	PK GA	TSH	PK Eff	Rank
1 to 56	56	11	123	8.9%	31st	33	164	79.9%	16th

Lindholm only played in 18 games. Manson played in 23 games. They played in only two games together. At least one of them was on the ice for 39 games out of 56 total games for the shortened COVID season.

.
=== 2021-22 ===

Ducks	Special Teams
2021-22
Game Set	Games	PPG	PPO	Eff		PK GA	TSH	PK Eff
1 to 33	33	23	90	25.6%		12	85	85.9%
34 to 62	29	19	85	22.4%		17	89	80.9%
63 to 82	20	6	44	13.6%		14	50	72.0%

Ducks	Games 1 - 33
Year Schedule	Game Set Splits	Games	W	L	OTL	Pts		Pct of games		Point Share	Win Pct
2021-22	Games 1 - 33	33	17	9	7	41		100.0%​		62.1%​	51.5%​
	1-goal games	20	7	6	7	21		60.6%​		52.5%​	35.0%​
	Non 1-g games	13	10	3	0	20		39.4%​		76.9%​	76.9%​

Involved in more 1-goal games than to start the season. The PP and PK helped improve overall play. We were the better team most nights.

Ducks	Games 34 - 62
Year Schedule	Game Set Splits	Games	W	L	OTL	Pts		Pct of games		Point Share	Win Pct
2021-22	Gm 34-62	29	10	16	3	23		100.0%​		39.7%​	34.5%​
	1-goal games	12	6	3	3	15		41.4%​		62.5%​	50.0%​
	Non 1-g games	17	4	13	0	8		58.6%​		23.5%​	23.5%​

Injuries hit, our PP dropped a bit as well as our PK. We were no longer as competitive as the first 33 games. While we did improve our 1-goal game record, outside of that our team was terrible.

Ducks	Games 63 - 82
Year Schedule	Game Set Splits	Games	W	L	OTL	Pts		Pct of games		Point Share	Win Pct
2021-22	Games 63-82	20	4	12	4	12		100.0%​		30.0%​	20.0%​
	1-goal games	6	0	2	4	4		30.0%​		33.3%​	0.0%​
	Non 1-g games	14	4	10	0	8		70.0%​		28.6%​	28.6%​

We couldn't pull out 1-goal games at all. We simply were beyond terrible on the scoresheet despite the players giving their 100% effort on the ice.

All we did with the blue line this off-season was add a very good offensive defenseman in Klingberg. I don't think we can shut teams down at the end of games.

====

I don't think the current construction of the roster is equal to that of the one we started in 2021-22. We're tilted offensively with the blue line going into this season. Our Achilles' heel will be the PK unit. If we can't make it back to middling, then I don't see us closer to a playoff spot than landing Bedard.

My skepticism lies on the lack of defense from our defensive unit. That's why I say we'll probably be in a lot of shootout, but we might be on the losing end. We're no longer built from the net out after the TDL.

Very insightful thanks bud

 

[CrazyDuck4u]

Get a better coach and one good physical shutdown d. And this team will make the playoffs. Eakins is on a short leash

 

[Gliff]

I think this team is closer to being on the playoff bubble than to have a legit chance at Bedard. I hate tanking, not going to stay up to 1am watching a team get their asses handed to them every night with no hope.

This group gives me some hope to be somewhat competitive in games and can go either way. I think they upgraded a lot on the offense side and with the development and growth of the kids can see an even bigger upgrade from within .

Someone called Gibson a wild card. That is so true. He has to play solid and stay what way. He fell off a cliff after the ASG and the team was still in a playoff spot so not sure what he was thinking or why the lack of motivation. Gibby doesn’t have to necessarily pull pre-ASG number. I’m talking around a 910 to .915 SV% and around 2.6-2.8 GAA, which is right below or above his career averages. I think this team can score 3 or more goals most nights to give him support with how it’s shaping up.

Still would like Verbeek to add another Top 6F or Top 4D then think they can be a Dark Horse this season. Even if a lot of things still have to happen.

Fowler is the best defensive defensemen on the team. They aren’t going to be anywhere near the playoffs unless Z and Terry are 100 point players or Gibson wins a Vezina.

 

[bsu]

Fowler is the best defensive defensemen on the team. They aren’t going to be anywhere near the playoffs unless Z and Terry are 100 point players or Gibson wins a Vezina.

Or McTavish goes Troy Terry out the gate. But yeah we gonna be no where near the playoffs with this current roster.

 

[MCB]

On the long ones, you aren't the only one I promise you that

There should be an achievement unlock for reading one from start to finish.

 

[McDonald19]

Does anyone know if beagle is back with the coyotes or next season?

He’s a UFA and turns 37 in October. Looks like he will sneak into retirement without any retribution from the Ducks.

 

[Gliff]

He’s a UFA and turns 37 in October. Looks like he will sneak into retirement without any retribution from the Ducks.

Like the Ducks have anyone capable of that.

 

[FiveHoleTickler]

Like the Ducks have anyone capable of that.

I think Max Jones might fill that role.

 

[Static]

A little bit of Monday dirk trolling.

 

[Leonardo87]

Fowler is the best defensive defensemen on the team. They aren’t going to be anywhere near the playoffs unless Z and Terry are 100 point players or Gibson wins a Vezina.

Cup or Bust!

 

[Frosted Tips]

A little bit of Monday dirk trolling.

I wasn't prepared to see Eeli Tolvanen in there.

 

[bsu]

I think Max Jones might fill that role.

You must have never seen Max Jones fight, he is physical but yeah if they drop the gloves he's definitely going to try to tackle.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Fowler is the best defensive defensemen on the team. They aren’t going to be anywhere near the playoffs unless Z and Terry are 100 point players or Gibson wins a Vezina.

I think there's a small chance the Ducks can sniff the fringe of the playoffs, but it's based upon a lot of conditions.

1. Goalies Gibson and Stoli stand on their heads all season long.​

2. Improved PK.​

3. Klingberg finds his defensive game again.​

4. D's Vaaks and Benoit improve their defense.​

5. McTavish and Comtois skyrocket in offensive productions.​

We have two major factors preventing a higher probability of being a playoff team:

I. Can we score more than we give up? (Condition 5)

After TDL stats​

Total GF/game = 2.60; Total GA/game = 3.70​

ES GF/game = 2.30; ES GA/game = 3.00​

II. Can we shut teams down at the end of games? (Conditions 1 - 4)

After TDL stat​

PK efficiency = 72.0% (would be ranked last in league)​

We're built as an offensive scoring team that needs to find a way to play better defense. With more two-way forwards on-board going into this season, we're going to rely on them to do the heavy work of playing defense and then living in the offensive zone. I'm just not confident in our blueline with how we played after the TDL and only added Klingberg, who becomes our best offensive blueliner and suspect D.

I wanna believe, but lots of statistical factors has the probability low. Usually, I'm the optimistic one going into next season. Assistant coach Stothers has his work cutout for him to get his PK unit back to average. I am very optimistic with the long term future of this team as Verbeek has populated our blue line pipeline, we now have a surplus of talent that we can use as trade capital to land a top-end player either at defense or forward into the future.

 

[McDonald19]

Like the Ducks have anyone capable of that.

I mean, Carrick would have tried but I don’t like that he is the Ducks’ “enforcer”.

 

[Rybread86]

My prediction is we get something very similar to last season. They will go on a streak where they look unstoppable and have everyone thinking they are playoffs bound, but the rest of the season will be so bad they are picking top 10 again.

They are not physical at all right now and their overall team D has to be bottom 5-10 in the league. They have the offensive weapons to play a fun, up tempo game, but the good teams will just grind on them.

Its a great direction PV has them going in, but he and everyone else has to know they are maybe at the half way point. PV also still has a lot of weapons in his arsenal. Cap space, expiring contracts, trade bait and time.

I have long been an Eakins defender. I think when you look back at the teams hes had and the management hes had over him, its easy to see the guys always had the short end of the stick. With that said, I dont think he makes it to the TDL. Thats another key that PV holds. He doesnt have to rush it, but he will find his coach somewhere that fits the system he wants to implement with the plans he has for the roster.