Why? The point of the article is to see which teams hand proportionally good vs bad contracts, ELCs are standard across the board and don't fit the purpose.
Speculation: 2022-23 Roster Thread
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Smirnov2Chistov
Fire Greg Cronin!
The problem that I see is, unfortunately again, Lindholm's ability to stay healthy. If he can stay healthy and fulfill that contract, great. If not? That's Bostons problem.
Hockey Duckie
Registered User
NHL contract efficiency rankings: Grading every team in the league
The best and worst contracts are the most interesting but those are teasers for a this project where the league is graded on a whole.theathletic.com
The author is using GSVA (Goals Scored Value Added), which utilizes the past three seasons to come up with the number. The main factors are heavily skewed towards actual scoring such as 0.75*goals, 0.70*primary assists, and 0.55*secondary assists. The rest of the stats are 0.15 or smaller for possession stats and the rest.
This is why Terry, Rico, and Strome look good in this statistical model because they score a lot. Terry's year last year skews his 3-year average. With Terry still on a cheap bridge deal, his "cost per win" value is far under value.
Lindholm will never look good in this model b/c his game is mostly about defense and quick transition. He often won't be on the score sheet, but his quick transition flips the ice in the Ducks favor. It will be interesting how Lindholm does in Boston. Here are his splits last year:
Ducks: 61 gp, 5g + 17a = 22 pts, 0.36ppg, +0 rating
.............. CF% = 46.6; FF% = 46.6, xG diff (E +/-) = -8.7
Bruins: 10 gp, 0g + 5a = 5 pts, 0.50 ppg, +10 rating
.............. CF% = 53.8; FF% = 56.0, xG diff (E +/-) = +4.6
Whether or not a contract is good or bad is influenced by your team's situation, including your elcs
That isn't the exercise though, he's evaluating player contracts based on their on-ice contribution, not against other contracts on the team. If that were the case we would be near the top as we hardly have any money committed at all.
Just because Seth Jones' contract doesn't affect anything on Chicago right now doesn't make it good.
WhatTheDuck
9 - 20 - 8
Not sure where the writer is getting the notion that Lindholm is in decline? When healthy he's as impactful as ever.
Hockey Duckie
Registered User
In the author's model, Game Score Value Added (GSVA), it places a lot of weight on scoring. Also, it takes the average over a 3-season period for the model. Lindholm doesn't score often, but was often injured in two of the past three seasons. Babysitting Drysdale last year did not help Lindholm's possession metrics or expected goals rate as Lindholm finished with +0 and Drysdale a -18 before Lindholm was traded away.
Oddly enough, the numbers don't take into account team talent. With Boston, Lindholm was a +10, his possession numbers were above 50% and had a positive goal differential.
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=== You were warned if you read beyond this point ===
LotR version: (Lord of the Rings version)
Here's the author's first iteration of multipliers for his model:
Goals: 0.75
Primary Assists: 0.7
Secondary Assists: 0.55
Shots: 0.075
Blocks: 0.05
Penalty Differential: 0.15
Faceoff Differential: 0.01
5-on-5 Corsi Differential: 0.05
5-on-5 Goal Differential: 0.15
Then he amended recently to put more emphasis on expected goals (xG, xGF, xGA):
Forward expected goals
F xGF: 0.625
F GF: 0.625
F xGA: 1.75
F GA: 0.4375
F GF: 0.625
F xGA: 1.75
F GA: 0.4375
Defense expected goals
D xGF: 1.7
D GF: 0.425
D xGA: 2.3
D GA: 0.575
D GF: 0.425
D xGA: 2.3
D GA: 0.575
There are a few factors why Lindholm gets docked heavily under this model. First, Lindholm doesn't put up a lot of points. Past three years, Lindholm has 22 pts, 6 points, and 27 points total last year between Anaheim and Boston. Second, Lindholm has been plagued with injuries in the previous two seasons. Three years ago, Lindholm played in only 55 games out of 71 total games before COVID shut things down. Two years ago, he only got in 18 games out of the 56-game COVID realignment, shortened season. This year year, though, Lindholm played in 71 games and held out of games due to the TDL out of 82 games. Finally, we've also been in a rebuild for the past three seasons and babysitting Drysdale last year didn't help his possession or expected goal numbers at all. Lindholm had a +0 plus/minus rating when he was traded away and Drysdale was a -18. Drysdale's plus/minus rating per game rate got worse without Lindholm, along with Drysdale's offense.
| Drysdale | Ducks | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | Games | G | A | Pts | ppg | Plus/minus | Plus/minus per game | |
| Total | 81 | 4 | 28 | 32 | 0.40 | -26 | -0.321 | |
| Before TDL | 61 | 3 | 23 | 26 | 0.43 | -18 | -0.295 | |
| After TDL | 20 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0.30 | -8 | -0.400 |
I've recorded stats of with and without Lindholm with the Ducks and we always improved our goals against average whenever he's healthy to be on the ice. Several years ago, some publications were noticing just how good Lindholm was defensively, but won't be noticed much from the mass media/fans because he doesn't score a lot.
Sportsnet: How Anaheim's Lindholm is Changing the Way We Judge D-men
The Hockey Writers: Hampus Lindholm, the NHL's Most Underrated Defenseman
This year, I did splits of when Fowler, Manson, and Lindholm were all healthy (games 1 - 33), when injuries started between all three (games 34-62), and after the TDL withou Manson and Lindholm (games 63-82). We were a worse defensive team without Lindholm, especially on the PK.
| Ducks | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | |||||||||||||||
| Game Set | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | . | GF | GA | GD | GF/GP | GA/GP | GD/GP | Point Share | ||
| Total | 82 | 31 | 37 | 14 | 76 | 232 | 271 | -39 | 2.83 | 3.30 | -0.48 | 0.463 | |||
| Gm 1 - 33 | 33 | 17 | 9 | 7 | 41 | 104 | 91 | 13 | 3.15 | 2.76 | 0.39 | 0.621 | |||
| Gm 34 - 62 | 29 | 10 | 16 | 3 | 23 | 76 | 106 | -30 | 2.62 | 3.66 | -1.03 | 0.397 | |||
| Gm 63 - 82 | 20 | 4 | 12 | 4 | 12 | 52 | 74 | -22 | 2.60 | 3.70 | -1.10 | 0.300 |
(Games missed during Game Set 34-62: Lindholm missed 2 games, Fowler missed 4 games, and Manson missed 16 games)
Although the drop between before the TDL and after the TDL set doesn't look significant with respect to GF per game played (GF/GP) and GA/GP, the point share earned was significantly different. In those little difference factors it hurt the Ducks a lot more in the points column.
But we can actually notice just how lacking in talent the Ducks were when Hampus got shipped to a playoff team like the Bruins. (CF% = Corsi for all situations, FF% = Fenwick for all situations, and xG diff = expected Goal differential)
Ducks: 61 gp, 5g + 17a = 22 pts, 0.36ppg, +0 rating
.............. CF% = 46.6; FF% = 46.6, xG diff (E +/-) = -8.7
Bruins: 10 gp, 0g + 5a = 5 pts, 0.50 ppg, +10 rating
.............. CF% = 53.8; FF% = 56.0, xG diff (E +/-) = +4.6
When healthy, Lindholm is always shining. The problem is many publications don't focus on the talent surrounding Lindholm and how much he affects positive play. The Sportnet article above shares it with a graphic of with Lindholm and without Lindholm.
Inability to stay healthy can be part of age-related decline
Anaheim4ever
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Yeah, things that didn't make you sore and hurt a while when you were younger now suddenly do.
Have noticed that with my back at 30s vs early 20s.
Even the greatest players can suddenly break down all the sudden like Mike Trout who now has a back condition.
Don't remind me. I used to push wheelbarrows loaded with concrete around all day for a living and now it hurts my back to bring the groceries in, lol.
Dirk316
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This is gonna be the theme going into next season
robbieboy3686
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Dirk316
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Don't think so but the fact an old lightweight non fighter did this unpunished again Anaheim so alot imagine tougher players
Can have this and not have the softest spineless lineup in the league.
CrazyDuck4u
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Even if ducks get last place. Don't think for a second the NHL will hand over that player to the ducks. They will rig it and ducks will get second
bsu
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Anaheim4ever
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So you are saying the Ducks will get Matvei Michkov at #2 ?
Gaucher/Zegras/Michkov could become one of the best lines in the league.
bsu
"I have no idea what I am doing" -Pat VerBleak
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McTavish Zegras Michkov would be way better.So you are saying the Ducks will get Matvei Michkov at #2 ?
Gaucher/Zegras/Michkov could become one of the best lines in the league.
Anaheim4ever
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I agree it would. But most around here don't think McTavish should go to the wing.
They need another top6 center imo. Hope they get a good one in 2023 draft so they can have the luxury of moving McTavish to wing with Zegras. He could still take faceoffs even moving to the wing, Perreault did it for years with Winnipeg.
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Hockey Duckie
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This year is the only year in the lottery that we didn't move down a spot. Maybe the league hated Murray b/c we moved down in three consecutive drafts as a lottery team: From 8th to 9th in 2019, from 5th to 6th in 2020, and from 2nd to 3rd in 2021.
robbieboy3686
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Believe me, I’m 100% and always have will be for team toughness and rudeness
No they won't... Ducks would drop to 3 because Mitchkov sounds like a figure star level player too
I think this team is closer to being on the playoff bubble than to have a legit chance at Bedard. I hate tanking, not going to stay up to 1am watching a team get their asses handed to them every night with no hope.
This group gives me some hope to be somewhat competitive in games and can go either way. I think they upgraded a lot on the offense side and with the development and growth of the kids can see an even bigger upgrade from within .
Someone called Gibson a wild card. That is so true. He has to play solid and stay what way. He fell off a cliff after the ASG and the team was still in a playoff spot so not sure what he was thinking or why the lack of motivation. Gibby doesn’t have to necessarily pull pre-ASG number. I’m talking around a 910 to .915 SV% and around 2.6-2.8 GAA, which is right below or above his career averages. I think this team can score 3 or more goals most nights to give him support with how it’s shaping up.
Still would like Verbeek to add another Top 6F or Top 4D then think they can be a Dark Horse this season. Even if a lot of things still have to happen.
This group gives me some hope to be somewhat competitive in games and can go either way. I think they upgraded a lot on the offense side and with the development and growth of the kids can see an even bigger upgrade from within .
Someone called Gibson a wild card. That is so true. He has to play solid and stay what way. He fell off a cliff after the ASG and the team was still in a playoff spot so not sure what he was thinking or why the lack of motivation. Gibby doesn’t have to necessarily pull pre-ASG number. I’m talking around a 910 to .915 SV% and around 2.6-2.8 GAA, which is right below or above his career averages. I think this team can score 3 or more goals most nights to give him support with how it’s shaping up.
Still would like Verbeek to add another Top 6F or Top 4D then think they can be a Dark Horse this season. Even if a lot of things still have to happen.
bsu
"I have no idea what I am doing" -Pat VerBleak
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I don't think this team will be anywhere near the playoffs. They should be amusing enough to watch though.
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