Based on historic production I absolutely agree but if he can pace similar to what he did this year which was at like .75 ppg in that range. Hot take: if he can replicate that level of scoring while maintaining his style of play overall he has more consistent positive impact in games than any forward on the team including MacK and that contract will be a steal. Though I think like most here have said it is unlikely he paces for that over full seasons to come.
Rumor: 2022-2023 Trade Rumors and Free Agency (Mod Warning in OP)
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- Apr 25, 2006
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Pretty much everyone here assumed 12M before the Dater article. It was always "EJ's money going to Mack".
12.5M is fine. 13M+ is greedy. Under 12M is unrealistic.
Foppa2118
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- Oct 3, 2003
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It will be interesting to see how Nuke's deal ages. Even if his production dips though, what he brings to this team especially, with Bednar's forechecking system, is worth a ton.
Impossible to quantify, but Nuke might help his team outside of scoring, more than any other forward in the NHL.
Impossible to quantify, but Nuke might help his team outside of scoring, more than any other forward in the NHL.
- Apr 25, 2006
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With their style of play Nuke and Lehkonen need to stay hungry despite their respective contracts.
If they do that they'll be fine, I'm not worried about production. They pretty much only score because they are hungry for the puck.
- Jan 18, 2016
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Not that I disagree, but at Nukes cap hit he has to produce at a top 6 level. If he goes back to a 30pt guy that’s a bad contract to be on the hook for.
Foppa2118
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- Oct 3, 2003
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I'm not too worried about Lehkonen staying hungry. That doesn't seem to be an issue for him.
Nuke I'm not too worried either, but given the higher cap hit, I'm hoping to see a similar motor next year to alleviate any small concerns.
- Apr 25, 2006
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He was a 30 pts guy in the bottom 6 with no PP time. He's going to play full time in the top 6 now + some PP.
He is slightly overpaid for 8 years though, I don't think he'd have got that same money on the market based on a 7 year contract.
The truth is no player who signed this summer took any kind of discount: Nuke, Lehks, Cogs, Helm, Manson...even Georgiev.
St Louis did not win with a JT Compher as their first line Center. Unfortunately the cap exists, and the Avs are built through Mack and Makar. Losing one will knock us out of any chances of a second cup.
Foppa2118
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- Oct 3, 2003
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Yeah I guess what I was saying is reverting back to 30 points would certainly change the look of that contract, but not as bad as pretty much any other forward reverting back to 30 points on that contract.
In that same vein, if he drops back to a 50 point pace from his 69 point pace last year, then given everything else he does to help the Avs, the deal might not be too bad.
One thing I keep wondering though is we all kind of expect his production to drop after his contract year. Looking at the trajectory of the last few seasons though, and how he's gotten better and more confident in himself every year, and his shot has improved every year, what if his production increases rather than decreases?
I have a feeling that given the Avs were fine with giving him 8 years at big money, they might think that's a possibility. Maybe an outside possibility, but I wouldn't be that surprised either.
- Jan 18, 2016
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As long he’s around 50pts and his usual self off the puck the deal will be fine. I also believe that last year was a break out more than a contract year fluke, but with the contract he got the expectations certainly increase.
No, absolutely not the best option there.
Bender
I'll eat pancakes on his grave!
- Sep 25, 2002
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I'd bet my house that MacKinnon signs for 8 years @ $11M per season.
Me and Frank Seravalli are going to be roommates!!!
Me and Frank Seravalli are going to be roommates!!!
Mighty Makar
I hate this fu*ken team
- May 24, 2016
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shadow1
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- Nov 29, 2008
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Dvorak is polarizing as heck, but I've been thinking about something.
Burakovsky, Lehkonen, Nichushkin - absolutely not top-6 players before arriving in Denver. A cup and several 5+ year contracts later, that's obviously changed.
This requires a lot of speculation, but should the Avalanche add Dvorak, I think we should all be cautiously excited because he's more established offensively than any of those players were. Wouldn't complain if they managed to add Jake Evans to the trade, either.
Vaslof
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- Feb 1, 2017
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I think this went unanswered, so: Basically think about the cap space as divided by the whole regular season. So for every day that we are under the cap, we are accruing more cap space "in the bank" that we can use later. When it's deadline time, there are only a small % of games left. So, for example, 4M for all season would mean 4M average. Zero for 80% of the season and 20M for 20% of the season would also mean 4M average. Someone can correct me if there's something wrong, but that's more or less how it works.
Dvorak if far from the best option here... he's not very good in general, but even worse for a contending team.
This is the basic idea... one impact the Avs may have though is if bonuses are reached, it is treated like that amount is on the whole season. So if there wasn't enough room for the whole season, bonus overages start to apply.
I once had hope that guy was a diamond in the rough but no, he's an unspectacular bottom sixer, and he doesn't move the needle enough to justify the absorption of that contract IMO. Bottom line he's not a discernible improvement over the options the Avs already have.
- Jan 18, 2016
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I mean Bura has talent for days and did well with the role he was given no doubt there. But Lehkonen has been a top 6 guy for like 2 months here and Nuke 1 year. Jury’s still out on them imo.
On the other end of the spectrum Kadri had his worst ever year here. Dvorak just… is too much of a risk at 2C.
- Jan 18, 2016
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John Mandalorian
2022 Avs: The First Dance
- Nov 29, 2018
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Every one here was assuming the cap increase would be 2025 and not 2024, which is starting to seem more likely. If the cap goes up 10 million in 2024 and 15ish million by 2025, as is being discussed, this focus on 12.5 million becomes a day old donut. And when you look at the contracts being handed out, it makes sense that teams are factoring this in. By 2024/2025, the sticker shock will long be an after thought.
- Jul 27, 2021
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Maybe, but in our case, we will probably have our strongest rosters and therefore our best chances at the Cup this coming season and next season, so if there is a big bump in 2024, it's not necessarily going to benefit us the most.
SoundwaveIsCharisma
Moderator
Avs_19
Registered User
- Jun 28, 2007
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No thank you to Dvorak. He can stay where he is and keep putting up those empty stats in meaningless games on a bad team. That's not a winning player.
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