2022-2023 Blues Multi-Purpose Thread

[Xerloris]

I don't think Binner has been an all star this year and he's had too many blow up games.

I agree, he has not been a superstar but you can't expect a goalie to be a superstar when your team is trash. Also, I would highly suspect that many of his blow up games have come at time where he said said f*** it who gives a shit.

 

[STL fan in MN]

I’ve always had a problem with xGA as I agree with Brian - it absolutely doesn’t match the eye test.

Take just this last game for example. Binny gave up 5 but his xGA was 2.4. But on 3 of them he had absolutely no chance. And on another he was completely screened by 2 players (one of them being 6’6” Parayko). I’d say only the 1st one was sort of weak. And then he stole a couple others that would be goals well over 50% of the time.

Clearly what is being used to determine a dangerous scoring opportunity and thus how xGA is calculated is way off IMO. Put garage in and you’ll get garbage out.

 

[LGB]

I’ve always had a problem with xGA as I agree with Brian - it absolutely doesn’t match the eye test.

Take just this last game for example. Binny gave up 5 but his xGA was 2.4. But on 3 of them he had absolutely no chance. And on another he was completely screened by 2 players (one of them being 6’6” Parayko). I’d say only the 1st one was sort of weak. And then he stole a couple others that would be goals well over 50% of the time.

Clearly what is being used to determine a dangerous scoring opportunity and thus how xGA is calculated is way off IMO. Put garage in and you’ll get garbage out.

It's not perfect, but I think it's the most useful metric we have to estimate quality of chances. FWIW I'm seeing 3.17 xGA from Moneypuck. You can see exactly how it's calculated here (under Shot Prediction Expected Goals Model). Unfortunately screens are not something they can account for.

 

[Xerloris]

It's not perfect, but I think it's the most useful metric we have to estimate quality of chances. FWIW I'm seeing 3.17 xGA from Moneypuck. You can see exactly how it's calculated here (under Shot Prediction Expected Goals Model). Unfortunately screens are not something they can account for.

Which is why using advanced stats for a goalie can be very inaccurate.

 

[STL fan in MN]

It's not perfect, but I think it's the most useful metric we have to estimate quality of chances. FWIW I'm seeing 3.17 xGA from Moneypuck. You can see exactly how it's calculated here (under Shot Prediction Expected Goals Model). Unfortunately screens are not something they can account for.

Ok. It was one of the analytics accounts on Twitter where I saw the 2.4 xGA number. Perhaps there’s various formulas out there to calculate it? With it being a stat I don’t trust, I rarely look at it.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Ok. It was one of the analytics accounts on Twitter where I saw the 2.4 xGA number. Perhaps there’s various formulas out there to calculate it? With it being a stat I don’t trust, I rarely look at it.

the probem with these black box stats is there is almost no way to assess the validity of them unless they are clearly wrong like here.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

Tucker and Alexandrov sent to Springfield to help Springfield on their playoff push

 

[HighNote]

I have a very, very, very difficult time believing that Binner has played behind better defense than Vasilevski and only slightly worse than Sorokin. I've got a lot of time for xG models, but MoneyPuck's doesn't account for pre-shot passing at all.

The East-West variables it uses to impact the model is based on the last event (takeaway, hit, faceoff, etc) and doesn't really have a means of describing a back door tap in as a very high danger play if it comes after a sustained period of 5 on 5 zone time. Sustained zone time without a tangible event decreases the expected goal value and unless it is a rebound, the lateral movement directly pre-shot isn't factored in. Which means that a team spending 15 seconds moving around the perimeter, drawing the D out of position and then making a cross-ice pass for a back door tap in isn't viewed any differently than if a guy walks out of the corner and takes a bad angle shot on a goalie that is squarely set up in his RVH.

Over large samples, this generally evens out pretty well because most teams don't allow back door tap ins over and over and over when they are in their established in-zone D setup. Unfortunately, that type of play is far and away the biggest weakness in our defensive structure. The A+++ chances that our D seems most prone to allowing aren't classified as all that dangerous by MoneyPuck's (and all public xG models I know of) model.

I don't think Binner has been an all star this year and he's had too many blow up games. But basically every time I compare my eye test of a game against xGA numbers for that game, I come away thinking that the model isn't capturing the back door tap ins accurately.

I've been trying to explain this to people on the main boards for quite some time now, but it typically waters down to them saying "stats this bad you can't explain away." So thank you for articulating what I've been thinking better than I could have. The way I've tried describing it is that, we allow a ton of high danger chances like other bad teams, but the high danger chances we give up are of the most dangerous variety, mainly citing back door tap ins and one-timer passes through the slot.

 

[Mike Liut]

Imaging if Binny played on those Hitch Blues teams that would allow under 20 shots per game. He’s have a .950 save % and a 1.50 GAA

 

[Linkens Mastery]

Springfield looks pretty good defensively for the playoffs. Perunovich-Tucker-Kessel-Santini-Samorukov is pretty freaking stacked for the AHL.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Springfield looks pretty good defensively for the playoffs. Perunovich-Tucker-Kessel-Santini-Samorukov is pretty freaking stacked for the AHL.

and lyle

 

[Linkens Mastery]

and lyle

I forgot he existed. Lol

 

[542365]

The “xGa is garbage and Binner is actually good cuz eyes” just holds absolutely no water because he gets outplayed by his backup(same defense, usually the second night of back to backs) every year. He’s the single biggest reason we’re in the position we are in the standings. Hopefully people will finally accept that when he loses his starting job yet again next year.

 

[HighNote]

The “xGa is garbage and Binner is actually good cuz eyes” just holds absolutely no water because he gets outplayed by his backup(same defense, usually the second night of back to backs) every year. He’s the single biggest reason we’re in the position we are in the standings. Hopefully people will finally accept that when he loses his starting job yet again next year.

No, it's a legitimate opinion, and one that most people around here agree with. You're likely in the minority when you say he's been the biggest reason we're bad this year. Has he been amazing? No, but I'd venture to say that most of us around here believe he's been solid considering the circumstances, and that his stats don't accurately represent his play this year.

To take it a step further, Binnington has only truly been outplayed one season, and that was last year by Husso. That is also the only time that he's lost his starting job (which he regained during the playoffs when we were reminded who our true #1 was). Sure, you can look at 19-20 and say that Allen was better statistically, but Binnington was our clear #1, and he led us to 1st in the central and 2nd in the league before the season was shut down. He put up solid numbers as well. So to say "yet again" would not be accurate because that suggests he's lost the starting job several times. He hasn't lost it this year, and rightly so. Given how many starts the Blues coaching staff has handed to Binnington, it's clear that they also don't believe that the piss-poor play of the skaters in front of him is his fault. After all, how could it be?

 

[Reality Czech]

The “xGa is garbage and Binner is actually good cuz eyes” just holds absolutely no water because he gets outplayed by his backup(same defense, usually the second night of back to backs) every year. He’s the single biggest reason we’re in the position we are in the standings. Hopefully people will finally accept that when he loses his starting job yet again next year.

Couldn't be more false but you do you.

 

[Renard]

The Blues looked good against Washington on Friday.

Hofer didn't disappoint. Vrana, Blais and Kapanen looked good. Buch had a strong game.

I'm looking forward to seeing the team today.

 

[Stealth JD]

This is the second year in a row with Binnington as the starter that the Blues would have missed the playoffs unless the backup saved the season. Last year, on the strength of Husso’s performance and other-worldly special teams the Blues weren’t sunk by Binner’s play. This year has been less fortunate as the talent around the team dispersed.

Binnington rarely lets in softies…and he’s generally healthy, so he’s not a bad option. And with a stronger team around him, he can be a good option. But on a bad team, he’s not going to steal many games. He’s not talented enough, athletic enough or strong enough to cover the gaping holes the shooters get at him most nights.

There’s a reason he wasn’t highly regarded as a prospect, and if you were grading his attributes he’d probably get average scores (aside from puck-handling in which he is excellent). Being overlooked in favor of more highly regarded prospects wasn’t an indictment of Army’s inability to scout goalies; it was sound reasoning to believe the bigger, quicker guys with higher pedigree would be the better answer to long-term success.

Jordan ultimately made the most of his opportunity and grabbed the bull by the horns and not only back-stopped the team to a Cup, but then also strung together an impressive enough performance to earn that (brutal) contract he was given. But it was always just a matter of time before his natural talent level got exploited as his team swapped ends on the “caving-in” spectrum.

If Hofer can Husso, then Binner can sit as soon as next year. The defense hasn’t fallen off so much from last year to excuse the lousy numbers our goalies have put up. Sure, he makes some big saves…god-love the effort he puts in. But without a better option in nets, the Blues don’t have that ‘ultimate equalizer’ that always keeps bad teams in the game against good teams.

 

[Xerloris]

This is the second year in a row with Binnington as the starter that the Blues would have missed the playoffs unless the backup saved the season. Last year, on the strength of Husso’s performance and other-worldly special teams the Blues weren’t sunk by Binner’s play. This year has been less fortunate as the talent around the team dispersed.

Binnington rarely lets in softies…and he’s generally healthy, so he’s not a bad option. And with a stronger team around him, he can be a good option. But on a bad team, he’s not going to steal many games. He’s not talented enough, athletic enough or strong enough to cover the gaping holes the shooters get at him most nights.

There’s a reason he wasn’t highly regarded as a prospect, and if you were grading his attributes he’d probably get average scores (aside from puck-handling in which he is excellent). Being overlooked in favor of more highly regarded prospects wasn’t an indictment of Army’s inability to scout goalies; it was sound reasoning to believe the bigger, quicker guys with higher pedigree would be the better answer to long-term success.

Jordan ultimately made the most of his opportunity and grabbed the bull by the horns and not only back-stopped the team to a Cup, but then also strung together an impressive enough performance to earn that (brutal) contract he was given. But it was always just a matter of time before his natural talent level got exploited as his team swapped ends on the “caving-in” spectrum.

If Hofer can Husso, then Binner can sit as soon as next year. The defense hasn’t fallen off so much from last year to excuse the lousy numbers our goalies have put up. Sure, he makes some big saves…god-love the effort he puts in. But without a better option in nets, the Blues don’t have that ‘ultimate equalizer’ that always keeps bad teams in the game against good teams.

Would any of us actually enjoy going into the playoffs with such a shit team that made it purely because of the goalie? It would just eventually be another 1st or 2nd round exit and mediocre draft pick.

 

[Moose and Squirrel]

Would any of us actually enjoy going into the playoffs with such a shit team that made it purely because of the goalie? It would just eventually be another 1st or 2nd round exit and mediocre draft pick.

I know I'm not interested in being a bottom feeder for 5 (or more) years

 

[Xerloris]

I know I'm not interested in being a bottom feeder for 5 (or more) years

If you barely make the playoffs and repeatedly lose in the 1st round you're still a bottom feeder.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Just some random thoughts.

I'm really happy with the Vrana and Kapanen moves. They are basically discount versions of Tarasenko and Barbashev. Still would've liked to have Tolvanen as well, but I'm still pretty happy with the guys we got.

Vrana probably won't maintain this high of a shooting %, but it's not like his clip is at a crazy unsustainable pace, he shot 19% in 20/21 in 50 games, and 14.9 in 82 games in 18/19. He's always had that high-end offense, but when you are an offensive first winger, and you aren't the best offensive winger on the team, you are going to have limited minutes, and thus limited production. He might be more Hoffman, where he doesn't quite fit on a contending team, but for a team in transition, he can certainly be the 2nd best offensive winger and have 30+ goal upside.

Kapanen is a bit less comparable to Barbashev in style, where not as physical, but provides more speed. In a bigger picture view, he provides that 40 point upside in a plug and play winger for the top 9, where his speed will make him dangerous. He's good enough defensively to be the 3rd part of a good/decent shutdown line, and decent enough offensively to be the 3rd part of an offensive line. If he can continue to play a direct game, he'll certainly be a net positive for us.

And now for Hofer, the guy is clearly ready, and the play in front of him isn't an issue. And Zherenko has been incredible while Hofer has been up too. Our future looks bright in net.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

Just some random thoughts.

I'm really happy with the Vrana and Kapanen moves. They are basically discount versions of Tarasenko and Barbashev. Still would've liked to have Tolvanen as well, but I'm still pretty happy with the guys we got.

Vrana probably won't maintain this high of a shooting %, but it's not like his clip is at a crazy unsustainable pace, he shot 19% in 20/21 in 50 games, and 14.9 in 82 games in 18/19. He's always had that high-end offense, but when you are an offensive first winger, and you aren't the best offensive winger on the team, you are going to have limited minutes, and thus limited production. He might be more Hoffman, where he doesn't quite fit on a contending team, but for a team in transition, he can certainly be the 2nd best offensive winger and have 30+ goal upside.

Kapanen is a bit less comparable to Barbashev in style, where not as physical, but provides more speed. In a bigger picture view, he provides that 40 point upside in a plug and play winger for the top 9, where his speed will make him dangerous. He's good enough defensively to be the 3rd part of a good/decent shutdown line, and decent enough offensively to be the 3rd part of an offensive line. If he can continue to play a direct game, he'll certainly be a net positive for us.

And now for Hofer, the guy is clearly ready, and the play in front of him isn't an issue. And Zherenko has been incredible while Hofer has been up too. Our future looks bright in net.

If Hofer and Z can prove they are ready for the NHL I hope they can find a way to move Binner. Even tho I like Binner.

 

[Mike Liut]

Besides the Avs, which aren’t really world beaters like they were, there’s nobody in the West that are any better than the Blues on paper. We could easily be back in contention next year with a couple tweaks.

 

[bleedblue1223]

If Hofer and Z can prove they are ready for the NHL I hope they can find a way to move Binner. Even tho I like Binner.

Time is on our side, it's not like Bishop or Husso where we were forced to move Bishop before he had a chance here or Husso where he broke out in the season he was going to become a UFA in. And with goalies, they'll be affordable, they aren't going to suddenly cost a fortune on their deal after their ELC.

Hofer can be the backup next season, and we all hope it develops into a tandem because of his play. We'll see what Zherenko does next season as the starter. If Hofer excels at the NHL level and Zherenko excels in a starters role, then we'll have a bit of a log jam, and I'm not worried about Binnington. If Binnington performs well, we'll have 3 good goalies, and we'll be able to move one pretty easily. If Binnington doesn't perform, we can dump or buy him out, especially since Hofer and Zherenko likely won't be on expensive deals.

 

[Snubbed4Vezina]

Sounds like Hofer is here to stay.