2022-2023 Blues Multi-Purpose Thread

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Anyone see the reports that the cap will jump a decent amount in the 2024-2025 season?

feel like this was expected?

 

[mk80]

Thomas Griess is Pietrangelo's stunt double!

 

[PocketNines]

Anyone see the reports that the cap will jump a decent amount in the 2024-2025 season?

Reportedly up 1M next year then two successive ~4M bumps is speculation

 

[PocketNines]

LOL Kerber still thinks that .500 remains significant with 2 out of every 9 games infusing an extra point.

.500 hasn't meant the dividing line between above average and below average in the NHL for 17 years, Kerber. Adjust.

 

[TheDizee]

anyone try bally sports streaming yet? would love to hear review/impression. waiting to start my free trial until reg season is here.

 

[BlueDream]

anyone try bally sports streaming yet? would love to hear review/impression. waiting to start my free trial until reg season is here.

I turned it on but then saw Chuckie Sideburns wasn't playing so I threw my remote and canceled my subscription. Wouldn't recommend.

 

[Celtic Note]

When teams have identified a secret sauce, they can use that in multiple ways. Astros (trash cans aside) have been great about that, identifying spin rate and other areas where they think guys can be much better than their ordinary numbers suggest (with some tweaks).

So if we have identified ways that we can generate offense that is not generally understood, then it's reasonable to assume that we seek to identify advantages elsewhere. I've theorized that we value specific traits in (at least high) draft picks that lead to us disproportinately drafting wingers in 1st round, as I don't think we downgrade them viz-a-vis centers as much as other teams do. And I think we believe that D are far riskier in 2nd half of first round so we stay away from them.

And circling back to your question, if we have gained a specific advantage that allowed us to outperform that advantage won't last as other teams will catch on and catch up, but the thought process that enabled us to find that advantage will help us find other ones.

I wonder how much are selection of wingers is due to our position in the drafting order generally speaking. My assumption is centers go earlier than they should compared to wingers because they are move valued, to the point that better wingers slide down the list at the expense of lesser centers and probably D too.

The Blues seem content picking up D after round 1. One, because they are hard to pick with confidence because they tend to develop slower and also because our staff feels confident that they can find guys later.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

I wonder how much are selection of wingers is due to our position in the drafting order generally speaking. My assumption is centers go earlier than they should compared to wingers because they are move valued, to the point that better wingers slide down the list at the expense of lesser centers and probably D too.

The Blues seem content picking up D after round 1. One, because they are hard to pick with confidence because they tend to develop slower and also because our staff feels confident that they can find guys later.

Draft position obviously impacts, as we wouldn't pass up elite center or elite d because we like wingers. But if we think other teams overvalue centers at top of draft it can create opportunity to get stud wingers lower than they should go.

 

[rumrokh]

anyone try bally sports streaming yet? would love to hear review/impression. waiting to start my free trial until reg season is here.

It's hockey. The dudes move around on your screen. We're kinda past significant quality issues with most services like this, aren't we? I'm not saying it's not possible, but you can expect it to be just like a tv experience - the broadcast is the broadcast, everything else is dependent on your service provider. Is there some specific flaw or feature you're looking for?

 

[TheDizee]

It's hockey. The dudes move around on your screen. We're kinda past significant quality issues with most services like this, aren't we? I'm not saying it's not possible, but you can expect it to be just like a tv experience - the broadcast is the broadcast, everything else is dependent on your service provider. Is there some specific flaw or feature you're looking for?

60fps and no buffering. its a launch of a new service so i was wondering if ppl had issues.

 

[rumrokh]

60fps and no buffering. its a launch of a new service so i was wondering if ppl had issues.

Oh ho ho, you're talking about Bally Sports+. I've streamed games without issue using their normal service, so I didn't realize you were asking about something new.

 

[Celtic Note]

Draft position obviously impacts, as we wouldn't pass up elite center or elite d because we like wingers. But if we think other teams overvalue centers at top of draft it can create opportunity to get stud wingers lower than they should go.

I think that’s what’s happening.

 

[Brian39]

What categories are you finding fruitful? Season futures, individual games, over/unders & scoring props, player props, playoff series/Cup betting, etc.

Individual games and over/under goal totals. I usually take a couple season futures, but odds are generally not great on season futures so I only bet on a couple teams that strike me as significantly under/over valued. Generally, I only bet when a night has two or three games with odds that I really like, and then I wrap those games into a parlay with one or two over/under totals.

Started with a $100 deposit a couple years ago along with a promo of $100 in free bets. I've made two $100 withdrawals, no additional deposits and my current balance in the app is sitting around $200 right now. It would be higher if I could help myself from betting college football, but I'm a sucker for it.

It has helped that I don't bet on Blues games. They were by far the biggest downward drag on his model the last couple years, so avoiding that completely probably helped a ton.

 

[Brian39]

It's hockey. The dudes move around on your screen. We're kinda past significant quality issues with most services like this, aren't we? I'm not saying it's not possible, but you can expect it to be just like a tv experience - the broadcast is the broadcast, everything else is dependent on your service provider. Is there some specific flaw or feature you're looking for?

We should be, but never underestimate the quality offered by a monopoly.

The Bally Sports app through my firestick only works about half of the time. As often as not, it tells me that I don't have access to Cardinals games or Blues games when I'm logged in with a St. Louis ATT U Verse TV account within the St. Louis area. This is the TV I can see from my kitchen, so it is a coin flip whether I'll even be able to get the stream going when I cook dinner. When it does work, it has major buffering issues coming out of commercials. Quality dips periodically, but the firestick is over wifi and is definitely the least powerful of my streaming options and those issues aren't exclusive to Bally Sports.

On my Xbox One, I have access to the Cardinals stream 100% of the time. However, watching the game is frustrating. It consistently has buffering/stuttering issues during commercials which causes the stream to fall about 5-10 seconds further behind "live" every commercial break. If a game is still going after the scheduled end time, the app forces the stream into a small window in the corner of the screen with suggestions about what to watch next, it will let you manually full-screen that box, but will re-minimize it every 5 seconds to 2 minutes. It also has random/unpredictable cuts to black during streams that (I think) occur and get worse when viewership peaks. Sometimes these cuts flicker on and off, sometimes the screen will be black for 15 seconds at a time. Audio continues to work perfect. Bally Sports is the only app that I experience quality issues with on the Xbox, although I admittedly don't use it to stream all that much. I got the Xbox after Blues season ended last year, so I can't speak to the quality of hockey.

On my Roku, it works pretty well. It will occasionally have the issues where commercials push the stream further behind live time, but not nearly as bad as with the Xbox. During the last couple months of the Blues season, I started experiencing the same issue as I did on the firestick where it told me that I didn't have access to stream Blues games. They seem to have fixed that issue during baseball season, but it was still very frustrating down the stretch in hockey season.

All in all, my experience with the Bally Sports app has been just shy of a disaster. I pirated Blues games more than I watched them on the Bally Sports app for the last 2 months of hockey season. I have no experience with the standalone Bally Sports streaming package, but I assume that the functionality will be identical to the current app other than logging in with a streaming account instead of a cable log in. I absolutely wouldn't spend $20 a month for the experience I've gotten using their app with a cable log in.

 

[PocketNines]

Individual games and over/under goal totals. I usually take a couple season futures, but odds are generally not great on season futures so I only bet on a couple teams that strike me as significantly under/over valued. Generally, I only bet when a night has two or three games with odds that I really like, and then I wrap those games into a parlay with one or two over/under totals.

Started with a $100 deposit a couple years ago along with a promo of $100 in free bets. I've made two $100 withdrawals, no additional deposits and my current balance in the app is sitting around $200 right now. It would be higher if I could help myself from betting college football, but I'm a sucker for it.

It has helped that I don't bet on Blues games. They were by far the biggest downward drag on his model the last couple years, so avoiding that completely probably helped a ton.

So you're going for 4- and 5-outcome parlays on, say, 15-20 nights during the season? Then you need to hit every fifth or sixth one to make a profit? (roughly, conceptually).

How do you decide when you really like an individual game on the schedule? Are there patterns or scenarios you already know you like to bet, thinking "I'll win 7x out of 10 when these conditions are met so if I just identify all the times when those conditions are met and I bet all of them," or are you more dialed into certain teams and their up and down rhythms?

When building a parlay do you like a discernable pattern among the individual lines? I.e., mix of favorites and underdogs, mostly underdogs, mostly even money, etc?

I have a healthy respect for sports betting and the importance of avoiding sports betting tilt. At the same time it's pleasant and a competitive challenge to make profit based on earned knowledge.

 

[execwrite1]

Regarding Bally Sports -

Turmoil City - possibly impacting quality, etc

Three professional sports leagues may make a bid for Sinclair Broadcast Group’s two dozen regional sports networks, according to a report published this week.

On Tuesday, the New York Post said officials from Major League Baseball (MLB), the National Basketball Association (NBA) and the National Hockey League (NHL) were slated to hold discussions with Sinclair over its 21 Bally Sports-branded channels.

 

[STL fan in MN]

Blues assign 5 players to junior teams

Sim, Buchinger, Galloway, Gaudet and Cranley were sent to their Jr teams.

Looks like Cranley may end up being the only guy in camp to not get into a preseason game. Played the most in Traverse City at least.

 

[Brian39]

So you're going for 4- and 5-outcome parlays on, say, 15-20 nights during the season? Then you need to hit every fifth or sixth one to make a profit? (roughly, conceptually).

How do you decide when you really like an individual game on the schedule? Are there patterns or scenarios you already know you like to bet, thinking "I'll win 7x out of 10 when these conditions are met so if I just identify all the times when those conditions are met and I bet all of them," or are you more dialed into certain teams and their up and down rhythms?

When building a parlay do you like a discernable pattern among the individual lines? I.e., mix of favorites and underdogs, mostly underdogs, mostly even money, etc?

I have a healthy respect for sports betting and the importance of avoiding sports betting tilt. At the same time it's pleasant and a competitive challenge to make profit based on earned knowledge.

Usually 3 or maybe 4 outcome parlays on a given night. Two puck/money lines on a couple games and then the over/under total goals scored for one (and sometimes both) of those games.

I decide that I 'like' individual games mostly from Dom's advice (which he will no longer be doing). I'd look at the games that he's identified value and then see if my opinion of the teams matches that analysis. If it does, then I'll look at the over/under on total goals and see if either of them jump out as a good bet.

I bet on the Panthers a lot last year. They won a ton of games and there were an average of over 7 goals per game in their games. There were 38 games last year where they won a game that saw 6+ total goals scored. Any time they were in a game with the over/under set at 5.5, I'd bet them to win (usually money line) and bet the over on total goals. Throw in another favorite that I liked on the money line as the 3rd leg of a parlay and I would win that parlay much more often than I needed to hit my break even price. Vegas put their line for total goals at 5.5 way more often than they should have last year.

 

[mk80]

Blues assign 5 players to junior teams

Sim, Buchinger, Galloway, Gaudet and Cranley were sent to their Jr teams.

Looks like Cranley may end up being the only guy in camp to not get into a preseason game. Played the most in Traverse City at least.

Makes a little sense with Cranley being where he is on the depth chart. Our goaltending is pretty much locked in organizationally with the only question really being which of Zherenko or Ellis will earn the backup job in Springfield.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Makes a little sense with Cranley being where he is on the depth chart. Our goaltending is pretty much locked in organizationally with the only question really being which of Zherenko or Ellis will earn the backup job in Springfield, likely Ellis has the edge there with his great play in the ECHL, and Zherenko only being in his first North American pro season this year.

I suspect they swap them a bit to make sure each plays, but my sense is they believe Zherenko has higher upside.

 

[Brian39]

Makes a little sense with Cranley being where he is on the depth chart. Our goaltending is pretty much locked in organizationally with the only question really being which of Zherenko or Ellis will earn the backup job in Springfield, likely Ellis has the edge there with his great play in the ECHL, and Zherenko only being in his first North American pro season this year.

Did you watch any of his ECHL games last year? I didn't watch a second of his play, but his .905 SV% was substantially behind the .918 his career-minor-league partner put up. ECHL numbers are often largely meaningless and no matter what I don't have any concern over a 21 year old goalie in his first pro season. But his numbers don't scream that he was great in the ECHL and his .880 in brief AHL work isn't great either.

Zherenko also didn't put up anything great in Finland, so I won't be at all surprised if it's Ellis who gets the AHL gig. I just haven't seen or heard anything suggesting Ellis had a great year.

 

[mk80]

Did you watch any of his ECHL games last year? I didn't watch a second of his play, but his .905 SV% was substantially behind the .918 his career-minor-league partner put up. ECHL numbers are often largely meaningless and no matter what I don't have any concern over a 21 year old goalie in his first pro season. But his numbers don't scream that he was great in the ECHL and his .880 in brief AHL work isn't great either.

Zherenko also didn't put up anything great in Finland, so I won't be at all surprised if it's Ellis who gets the AHL gig. I just haven't seen or heard anything suggesting Ellis had a great year.

Thanks for pointing that out, I likely have my information crossed as I remembered hearing about one of our goaltending prospects performing well and leading their league/division in SV% at one point in the season. It could have been one of the junior guys though....

Edit: Maybe I was thinking of one of his QMJHL seasons where Ellis set the shutout record

 

[STL fan in MN]

Slightly of note is that Cranley is 20 so was eligible to be assigned to the minors but is going back for an overage year in the OHL instead.

They did the same thing with Ellis. And not surprising considering Cranley’s D+1 year was basically completely erased by the OHL canceling the season due to Covid.

I also noted that on the press release, he had been assigned to Flint, not Ottawa. Apparently I missed this blockbuster trade back in June where Cranley was traded to Flint for a…15th round pick. So clearly the OHL teams knew of the Blues’ intention of sending him back for an overage year and Flint needed a goalie and Ottawa was ready to move on with their younger guys.

Hopefully he does well in Flint. His numbers haven’t been very his so far but he looked alright in Traverse City.

 

[bleedblue1223]

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

He’s not wrong.