Tarasenko received his current contract about the same time in his career as Kyrou and Thomas just did. Calling them “un-proven” and saying Tarasenko “put in the work” doesn’t really add up. In fact, both Kyrou and Thomas have played in more NHL games than Tarasenko when receiving their contracts. And when Buffalo gave O’Reilly his current contract, almost every fanbase unanimously agreed that Buffalo overpaid given the output he had at the time. It’s only until after O’Reilly played a season in Buffalo that fans started to lessen up their view of the contract.
I understand you’re frustrated, but blaming Thomas an Kyrou is becoming way too convenient an excuse at this point.
Numbers to back up your point:
Tarasenko got his $7.5M x 8 year deal following his ELC and the AAV was 10.5% of the cap when he signed it. The contract started immediately. The contract purchased 4 RFA years and 4 UFA years. He was coming off his age 23 season where he scored 73 points in 77 games (37 of which were goals). The prior season, he scored 21 goals and 43 points in 64 games, which is a 27 goal and 55 point pace. He scored at a 17 goal and 41 point pace during his rookie season. He had already proven himself to be a playoff performer with 10 goals and 1 assist in 13 playoff games (albeit as a minus player).
Kyrou got his $8.125M x 8 year deal halfway through a 2 year bridge deal and the AAV is 9.85% of the cap when he signed. The contract doesn't start for another year, so assuming minimum cap growth, his AAV will be 9.73% of the cap in year 1 of the deal (and lower if we get the multi-million cap jump Bettman talked about). The contract purchased 2 RFA years and 6 UFA years. He was coming off a season in which he had 75 points in 74 games, 27 of which were goals. The prior season, he had 14 goals and 35 points in 55 games, which is a 21 goal and 52 point pace. In his prior two seasons, he couldn't stick in the NHL and had a combined 12 points over 44 NHL games. He had 58 points in 63 AHL games in that stretch. Kyrou was a no-show in the 2020/21 playoffs (along with the entire team) but produced about as expected in 2021/22 with 7 goals and 9 points in 12 games (albeit as a minus player).
Tarasenko and Kyrou had remarkably similar development paths at the NHL level (after very different paths to the NHL). I think it is fair to say that Tarasenko had proven himself to be more valuable, but his contract reflects that. $7.5M was a noticeably bigger percentage of the cap at the outset of the contract than Kyrou's is. The cap percentage Tarasenko got would be $8.7675M against the 2023/24 cap if it is the minimum $83.5M. And that doesn't factor in the fact that teams are expecting much more rapid cap growth in the first 3 years of Kyrou's deal than they were in the first 3 years of Tarasenko's deal. Tarasenko's contract also purchased 2 fewer valuable UFA years.
Thomas had a much less linear path to his breakout season last year. He started his NHL career a couple years earlier than Tarasenko/Thomas. His rookie and sophomore seasons were pretty comparable to Tarasenko's, although obviously much more weighed towards assists than goals. He played at a 39 point pace his rookie year and a 52 point pace in year #2. Then the final year on his ELC was a disaster where he missed 49 games and only paced for 30 points. That led to a 2 year bridge deal and he exploded with 77 points in 72 games. His contract terms are identical to Kyrou's, but he is a couple years younger than Tarasenko/Kyrou were at signing (despite having more NHL seasons and games played under his belt). He is also a center.
It is harder to compare Thomas and Tarasenko's contraacts since they have very different paths, play different positions and incredibly different roles. But I don't think you can say that Tarasenko had proven demonstrably more.
I don't think there is any merit to an idea that Tarasenko and ROR look at these two deals and feel left out. And if they do, that is something that overwhelmingly causes me to think, 'well don't let the door hit you on the way out.' Tarasenko signed the richest contract in Blues history following his ELC and single breakout season. He also switched agents in order to orchestrate a public trade request last summer. Early in his career, ROR had a lengthy contract dispute with the Avalanche that led to him signing an offer sheet with another team 5 weeks after the start of the lockout shortened NHL season. He filed for arbitration after that deal and ultimately his relationship with Colorado got contentious enough that he was traded. He signed a 7 year extension with Buffalo before playing a game for them and demanded that $45.5M of the of the $52.5M be paid as signing bonuses. Both of them did everything they could to maximize their own earnings early in their careers and have aggressively looked out for their own interests. That is not a criticism. Every player should. But they absolutely understand how the business works and jealousy/animosity toward the younger generation of teammates doing the same thing as them isn't the type of attitude I want in my locker room.
