2022-2023 Around The League

[TruePowerSlave]

Man, it’s depressing watching how much better guys like Pinto and W. Johnson look compared to Newhook. What a waste of a pick.

Hook wasn't a top 10 pick. That means he is not allowed to develop into something useful, Avs have to keep their streak going.

 

[Hasbro]

I don't know what makes me happier, watching the Avs defense or watching the Leafs defense

But Dubas knows things about Players no other GM knows!

 

[Flanagan]

Hook wasn't a top 10 pick. That means he is not allowed to develop into something useful, Avs have to keep their streak going.

It's pretty sad that Newhook is the most successful non-top-10 pick the Avs have made since 2009

 

[Ararana]

But Dubas knows things about Players no other GM knows!

 

[Hasbro]

So stat whacker excuse when he gets fired: "The coach didn't listen" or "He never really used analytics."?

 

[Vaslof]

It's pretty sad that Newhook is the most successful non-top-10 pick the Avs have made since 2009

I was going to say JTC, but he was drafted by Sabres lol. We really are awful aren't we?

 

[The Kingslayer]

I was going to say JTC, but he was drafted by Sabres lol. We really are awful aren't we?

Yah its pretty been pretty bad and hasnt gotten better. Who do we have in the stable that might end up as good as Pinto is right now? OO? Foudy? Ranta?

 

[a mangy Meowth]

We don't need to draft and develop. We just let other teams draft and develop guys then we snatch them off waivers to fill out our depth. Easy peasy.

 

[Colorado Avalanche]

We don't need to draft and develop. We just let other teams draft and develop guys then we snatch them off waivers to fill out our depth. Easy peasy.

We need to find new Nukes. That's it.

Any other failed top-10 picks we could snatch for no price?

 

[myperbixhurts]

We need to find new Nukes. That's it.

Any other failed top-10 picks we could snatch for no price?

Puljujarvi

 

[JoeSakic13]

We need to find new Nukes. That's it.

Any other failed top-10 picks we could snatch for no price?

More than one Nuke and we’ll get a 1st round bye

 

[a mangy Meowth]

We need to find new Nukes. That's it.

Any other failed top-10 picks we could snatch for no price?

Yep I think that's definitely something they will continue to seek out.

Savvy UFA signings like Nuke, waivers grabs like NAK or Nieto, and trades for players like Lehkonen, Georgiev, Toews are how this team creates value that other teams often create with quality drafting past the top 10. I'd also argue that they hit such a homerun with Rantanen at 10th that it makes up for a couple of the other misses that they've had. Even at the 10th pick it becomes rare to draft a franchise player compared to top 3 or 5, and Rantanen is better than a LOT of top 3 picks, even good ones.

It would be really nice if they could sprinkle in some drafted talent, and I imagine at some point we'll hit on one or two of those picks, but the team has obviously proven that they can win despite squandering a lot of draft capital (at least the portion they allocate to actually drafting players). I actually appreciate their awareness of this deficiency and their willingness to spend picks - 2nds in particular - regularly on trades which the Avs are obviously one of the best in the league at.

I'm just thankful that they nailed the top 10 picks when they had them. Hitting on those top of the draft picks are SO much more important than seemingly anything else in regards to big picture level team building. A notably significant portion of cup winners follow the trend of having very highly drafted players playing major roles at the most important positions.

 

[The Abusement Park]

Yah its pretty been pretty bad and hasnt gotten better. Who do we have in the stable that might end up as good as Pinto is right now? OO? Foudy? Ranta?

No one will come close to Pinto in our system. If Newhooks moved to wing he could compete though.

 

[Colorado Avalanche]

Puljujarvi

Definitely looked at teams which struggled to develop talent.

Pulju, Kakko etc. Could work.

 

[The Kingslayer]

No one will come close to Pinto in our system. If Newhooks moved to wing he could compete though.

Sens drafting/development is pretty damn good. Wish the Avs could be 10% as good.

 

[Pokecheque]

So stat whacker excuse when he gets fired: "The coach didn't listen" or "He never really used analytics."?

It's funny you keep throwing that term out there continually when you root for the team that did the analytics thing way, way better than Toronto has.

At least pick the right guy if you're gonna throw out this argument--it ain't the coach who has seemingly run counter to what the numbers say, it's the GM.

 

[Hasbro]

It's funny you keep throwing that term out there continually when you root for the team that did the analytics thing way, way better than Toronto has.

They have an analytics department to get credit for everything. Their biggest verifiable win is knowing what Dubas would have a hard on for.

At least pick the right guy if you're gonna throw out this argument--it ain't the coach who has seemingly run counter to what the numbers say, it's the GM.

It'll be someone else's fault regardless.

 

[a mangy Meowth]

I think a lot of people have this notion of team building where they put drafting on a pedestal compared to building a team via trades or even worse - UFA signings. "X team is buying wins by always signing the top available free agents". I sometimes see the word "homegrown" or "organically" used to describe it, like it's more honorable or respectable to build via the draft as opposed to FA signings. To some extent I agree especially in a sport like baseball where the Yankees and Dodgers just outspend other teams by $150+ million (gross), but in a league with a salary cap and the demonstrable history of UFA signings turning into pumpkins and hamstringing teams for years, I don't think it should get the same scorn.

It's one of the reasons why our Avs won. Not by paying risky megabucks to guys like Tavares or Pietrangelo, which seem so risky. But by making those key mid-to-low level acquisitions that take into consideration roster/system fit and salary structure implications now and future. Nuke, Helm, LOC, Francouz, hopefully Meyers and Rodrigues. These guys weren't expensive to sign by any stretch of the imagination, but they've all played or hopefully will play pretty significant roles in our success.

Regarding the three pillars or whatever of team building - Drafting, Trading, and UFA signing - the Avs are pretty balanced, though of course our best players are all top picks. Also probably the best team recently at taking advantage of the waiver wire.

Draft - MacKinnon, Makar, Rantanen, Landeskog, Byram, Newhook
Trade - Toews, Girard, Georgiev, Cogliano, Manson, Compher, Lehkonen, Johnson
UFA - Nichushkin, LOC, Helm, Francouz, Meyers, Rodrigues
Waiver - Hunt

 

[redacted]

Here's the biggest thing that I think people misunderstand about analytics... public stats and private stats in the NHL are just world's apart. People can point to any of the new flavor of the weeks stats in the public sphere, and they are 3-4 years behind what NHL teams have.

The Leafs are one of the most heavily invested teams in analytics and Dubas values them very highly. It may just not be the analytics that the public has.

As an example... some NHL teams (and a couple consulting firms provide this) track how quickly a player passes, but not only that... how quickly they pass the puck in certain areas of the ice. Then how many of those passes end up as a quick shot or one timer. By these stats, a hard pass (this varies in definition, but over 40 mph typically) that is in the corner that is received in the high slot and shot within 1 second is statistically the highest scoring chance play in the game. More than a breakaway even. Things like this are all over what NHL teams have... they've gotten incredibly granular in their data. It can tell a completely different story than public data.

 

[The Abusement Park]

Sens drafting/development is pretty damn good. Wish the Avs could be 10% as good.

Sens draft the best of anyone in the NHL I think.

 

[redacted]

Sens draft the best of anyone in the NHL I think.

Yeah they consistently can find very good NHL players. Ownership has typically been the biggest issue with the Sens and we will see where that will go now. It is legitimately kinda crazy on how many good players they find... and funny enough, most 'experts' usually hate their drafts.

 

[nammerus]

No one will come close to Pinto in our system. If Newhooks moved to wing he could compete though.

Newhook is nowhere close to Pinto, now or in the future.

And that’s more of a reflection of how good Pinto is.

 

[Pokecheque]

They have an analytics department to get credit for everything. Their biggest verifiable win is knowing what Dubas would have a hard on for.

I have no idea what this means.

I'm still not sure what your hard-on is for anti-analytics, but it's very, very possible to follow the advanced stats to the letter and still lose. Is that what you want to read?

If not for analytics, the Avs would not have the team they had last season. Not EVERY player who's made an impact is an analytics darling but a couple key contributors to the Cup run (Nichushkin, Burakovsky) were.

Sakic probably has a bigger hard-on for analytics than the Leafs, but Dubas looks like a big nerd and didn't play in the NHL, so he's still the requisite "computer boy" to the statwhacker-whackers like yourself.

Here's the biggest thing that I think people misunderstand about analytics... public stats and private stats in the NHL are just world's apart. People can point to any of the new flavor of the weeks stats in the public sphere, and they are 3-4 years behind what NHL teams have.

The Leafs are one of the most heavily invested teams in analytics and Dubas values them very highly. It may just not be the analytics that the public has.

As an example... some NHL teams (and a couple consulting firms provide this) track how quickly a player passes, but not only that... how quickly they pass the puck in certain areas of the ice. Then how many of those passes end up as a quick shot or one timer. By these stats, a hard pass (this varies in definition, but over 40 mph typically) that is in the corner that is received in the high slot and shot within 1 second is statistically the highest scoring chance play in the game. More than a breakaway even. Things like this are all over what NHL teams have... they've gotten incredibly granular in their data. It can tell a completely different story than public data.

I still feel like they veered away from the fancy stats with a few of their recent adds (though I'm a little flabbergasted that Gio still puts up really good defensive metrics) but FTR I don't think the success or failure of the Leafs is predicated on analytics, sometimes you put together a very talented core and it just...doesn't work out. But they've made mistakes along the way too. Obviously their determination that Kadri wasn't good enough to be a 2nd line center for a Cup contender was the wrong call.

 

[Pokecheque]

I should amend my previous statement--I don't know shit about whether or not the Avs have done analytics "way, way better" than Toronto has. In fact they likely haven't, but it's no secret they integrated analytics pretty quickly after Roy left (and I have it on good authority the push to do that came from above Sakic).

 

[redacted]

I still feel like they veered away from the fancy stats with a few of their recent adds (though I'm a little flabbergasted that Gio still puts up really good defensive metrics) but FTR I don't think the success or failure of the Leafs is predicated on analytics, sometimes you put together a very talented core and it just...doesn't work out. But they've made mistakes along the way too. Obviously their determination that Kadri wasn't good enough to be a 2nd line center for a Cup contender was the wrong call.

I don't really see them veering away... they may have a couple guys who aren't loved, but they add a ton of guys who are very numbers driven each year. IMO the Leafs' #1 issue is simply depth. They spend way too much on their top end guys and they can't support them through the lineup. So they are forced to get guys they like at cheap prices... the problem is they are cheap for a reason. There is a fundamental flaw. IE Kase who is a fantastic player when healthy, but is never healthy. Lyubushkin who is a micro stat super star defensively, but really a garbage player when you zoom out. Sometimes that has worked too though... like Bunting.